April (5) - alleycat, Acehunter, AM, genny, Dina
AM ()
Dina ()
alleycat ()
DubZ (2) - kras, Philosloth
kras ()
Philosloth (2) - supershorty, vetschools
MsP (0) - [deleted Dina]
Viscernable ()
supershorty (1) - DrRoRo
genny (6) - Zenge, sunshinefl, April, Viscernable, DubZ, LaineyLou
Acehunter ()
I think it's very likely there's another wolf on April (dina, ace, alley), a wolf on genny (z, sunny, april, me, lainey), and a wolf off the main wagons (kras, sloth, shorty, vets, cray). I can't see a pack that knows its likely one of them is going to flip being bold enough to not diversify their votes. Here's some thoughts on everyone based on reading over my D1 notes. I'm not caught up yet and this is way more stream-of-conciousness than I like to post but it's getting late and I want to put these thoughts out there asap in case they help discussion. All quotes are heavily paraphrased, to be clear.
alley - april 14. I really don't like her giving genny (implied) village points for "very good points" for posting 3 sketchy reads with little reasoning - this was post 332, before the tide was turning against genny so I don't think busing her was on the wolves minds yet and they might have been hoping to go powerwolfing. Echoing genny's weird thing about Dubz being "more jokey and upbeat" is sketching me out, especially considering she's never played village Dubz. Sticking to April sus after genny's flip, "especially with AM gone" does not make sense to me, but I'm more confused by it than anything. I would think wolves would want to get the hell away from being associated with genny's self-prez push on April. That's WIFOM, though. The way she commented on the methods of the murders in writeup and tried to raise that as a point of discussion gave me a twinge. It sounds so like what we did in noob game trying to distract and confuse the thread with speculation about which kills were wolfy based on writeup. Her post 1046 on sloth was very bland and echoey, and I have a feeling wolves are subtly busing each other or ignoring each other after genny's flip. Alley/sloth w/w looking very compatible.
ace - april 72, hard tunneling her and then shorty and then z. I don't like the reasoning and I think tunneling so hard is antivillage, but I have no read on whether it's genuine village stubborn tunneling or wolfy. Avoiding comitting to reads on others is sketching me out, though, feels like avoidance of having to make up fake reads or of getting pushback from/drawing attention of more people.
april - dina 9>genny vote not sure when. I don't understand how it would make sense for genny to try to self-prez onto a wolf, so she's out of the POE for now, but there's nothing she's said that gives me a village read. I don't know how I feel about her response to ace tunneling on her, especially the long "look how helpful I'm being giving noobs strategy tips! [insert flashbacks to noob helpfulness last game]" post (I don't know the full context since it's the most recent post before I started writing and I haven't read the last couple pages) but I want to note she seems strongly defensive of shorty over herself in a way that feels pockety.
cray - sloth 30>vis 61>unvote 797. sketchy from a wagonomics point of view but otherwise village read. I don't think boldly busing genny early and then trying to prez her late is like wolf-cray. Although it's not impossible for her to change her strategy, I'm getting a strong village feeling from her analysis. Very conflicted because I think her voting is the most sus of the 5 people off the main wagons but her posts are the least sketch. I'm putting more weight on her posts and her strong posts against genny because I've seen a lot of villagers panic around yeet deadline and make weird voting choices.
Dina - MsP>April 774. Paid a lot of lip-service to genny suspicion but suddenly got cold feet once she was in real danger of being yeeted. I need to look back over her posts because I remember her initially saying she was suspicious of the genny wagon because she felt it was stalling, and when challenged about that being a reason to think it was a misyeet her reason changed to feeling like there wasn't resistance. I need to check I didn't misremember or misinterpret that but there's nothing that gives me wolf tingles like misrepresenting your own reasoning. From a wagonmics point of view her vote timing, especially considering her "suspicion" of genny looks very bad but I think her reasoning was better than many others on april - not just echoing "the salt vote was sus and I have bad feels", e.g. she pointed out it was antivillage to vote for someone because they were a strong villager last game. I am leaning towards thinking sloth/dina are not w/w as he moved her from village to neutral along with genny because "MsP vote is unproductive" and I don't see him pulling the same move with two partners. In my wolf list but not a top contender considering how sketchy sloth is.
DrRoRo - shorty 69. I don't have many notes on her but I don't like that she hedged both content posts with noting her noobness. The way she echoed others' suspicion of me without sounding like she actually read my post or cared why others were suspicious creeped me out.
kras - Dubz 15 (initially joke then serious). I don't really understand the content she's been posting but I do love that she's posting content and her tone sounds much more provillage than last game. The Dubz vote really sketched me out, though, especially considering she never (unless it comes in the couple pages I haven't read yet) delivered the promised quotes when pushed about it. Her wolfhunting doesn't feel genuine but I don't know if that's just because I'm not understanding what her reads are or why - maybe just a communication problem.
lainey - genny 694. Just after tide was turning hard against genny. I'm leaning towards seeing it as a solid village point since I'm not sure she would have been able to read the rapidly changing thread state and make a decision to bus genny so quickly, but she is still in the POE and her vote looks like the most likely genny bus (I can't see wolves letting that bus opportunity go and in any case I assume there's a wolf on most wagons). The more I think about it the worse I feel about it - she's new but she seems to be very decisive and she could have been coached anyway, so the busing seems more likely than I initially felt it was.
MsP - n/a
shorty - kras>genny (around 400 I think)>sloth 457. Sloth vote looks good to me but I'm sketched out by hopping onto genny quickly then hopping off as the thread turned more and more against her. Otherwise she has sounded pretty village but I have no strong read on her.
sloth - alley 13>unyeet alley 37>dubz late. Very sketched out by everything I discussed EOD1 and sloth's top of my wolf reads right now. He only "felt pressured to give reads prematurely" after sunny raised it as a possible reason, and no one was directly pressuring him (I can understand a villager feeling pressured in the face of anticipated suspicion based on past games, but I'm not at all convinced that's what's happening here). When pushed on reading genny village she was quietly shuttled into neutrals, and only explained as "because her feuding with sunny was sus" when directly pushed. I truly do not understand that reason and that's the least sus thing genny did (not because fighting sunny is inherently village but because genny was such a sketchball). Defended genny just as she was starting to be sussed with a vague "sounds like she always does
sunny - genny 487. Voted genny right when the tide really turned against her but it wasn't at all yet clear she would be yeeted. Not sure how clearing that is, since I don't remember her pushing genny as much as others on her or raising original points against her. Otherwise her tone has sounded village to me. Her defense of sloth has been noted but I think she was genuinely just defending the playstyle on principle. Not so much trying to defend sloth as village as stating that what he did was NAI because she thinks the suspicion is based on a playstyle that frequently causes misyeets. They're compatible as wolves but I don't think the interaction is a strong point in favour of sunny/sloth w/w.
vetsplz - MsP 420>ace 459>sloth 470. I like her reasons for voting sloth, especially criticizing the early sus over the alley salt vote (I'm now leaning towards it actually being sus, but only because I'm reading them both wolfy and it feels like an early bus in that light. I did not understand the initial suspicion, but it was early and there wasn't a lot to analyze so fair enough) instead of doing the easy thing and echoing. I did not like the brief MsP vote reasoning. Deliberately trying to reduce the number of yeets by voting someone she thinks will be modkilled seems very antivillage to me. But I know my thoughts on whether village should try to maximize our number of yeets/vig shots or try to hold off until we have more info is far from universal, and I've made the mistake before of reading other villagers as wolfy for it before, so I will tentatively call it NAI.
z - genny 352. Went after her with strong, original reasoning early and stayed on her. Need to look over his analysis and pay close attention to his reads because I don't see anyone I can trust more than him.
