??? WW Game Thread - October 2021

[cubsrule4e]

About how wrong you are about me.

If AM’s wrong, I don’t wanna be right!

Spoiler

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[genny]

If AM’s wrong, I don’t wanna be right!

Spoiler

you... want me to be a wolf? what??

 

[cubsrule4e]

Nothing I do is random. Sometimes you have to poke the bear to see if a wolf falls out.

She’s not even flinching. And that’s a stick to the eye. Definitely a wolf.

 

[Viscernable]

He is purple.

But parity is his wincon

 

[cubsrule4e]

Early village read on Vis for the use of the word “wolves” here.

We’ve already established that 2 wolves would be “perfectly balanced” according to AM and probably math. There’s a possibility of one wolf with a conversion. But these seem to be the two possibilities we’re working with. 3 wolves seems like a lot.

So for the sake of the analysis, I’ll assume a two wolf pack with the lower chance of a possibility of a lone wolf and possible convert.

So Vis used the word “wolves”, the plural. So what?

My thinking is that there’s a hand full of possibilities where Vis, when making this joke to Genny, decided to use the plural “wolves” instead of the singular “wolf”.

1. There’s a perfect balance of two wolves, in total. Vis, as a villager, used to playing games where there’s more than two wolves, jokingly asks Genny to reveal the other “wolves”. Plural. Meaning Vis wasn’t really thinking about pack numbers when making this joke, and being used to scenarios where there would be more than two wolves in a pack used the plural “wolves” instead of the more likely “wolf”. Viscernable’s choice of the plural, and decided lack of thought behind pack numbers seems like a village decision.

2. Vis is in a pack of 2 wolves, and knowing full well there’s only one other wolf, decided to tailor the joke carefully and use the word wolves, instead of wolf, as an intentional layer of deception. This seems like an unlikely 4d chess move. At least, if I’m looking over option 1 and option 2, then option 1 seems much more likely, looking at them side by side.

3. Vis is a lone wolf, and would once again revert to the more natural “wolves” instead of “wolf”. Overall it’s too early to seriously consider a lone wolf with possible conversion, so I’ll just leave this here to make note of it’s possibility, but I’m not taking it as a serious possibility at this juncture.

So with the assumption that there’s two OG wolves, and we’re looking at the two possibilities, of scenarios 1 & 2, it seems like scenario 1 is far more likely than scenario 2.

So operating under the assumption that there’s 2 OG wolves in total, I think Vis’s off handed joke asking Genny “who the other ‘wolves’ are”, and the seeming lack of “too much information” by using the plural instead of the singular, I think it’s more likely than not that Vis is village.

This is … a lot. Aren’t we just supposed to be feeling things out at this stage?

 

[Animal Midwife]

But parity is his wincon

As with most killing factions.

 

[sunshinefl]

I could be in mason chat with AM and she would suspect me.

So what's your problem with me interacting with AM? You want the thread to shut down completely?

Explain in great detail how you're seeing things.

Visc was taking some weird issue with Genny interacting with you. And so Genny asked Visc in reply, “you want the thread to shut down completely?” Which would be in opposition to what Genny was doing by interacting. And then you chime in and say that Genny wants to shut down the thread.

 

[Animal Midwife]

This is … a lot. Aren’t we just supposed to be feeling things out at this stage?

I mean, the more in-depth, the better. It's beyond my skillset (except with specific players/scenarios), but if you can yeet a wolf D1, you can provide analysis D1.

 

[Viscernable]

Lol sunny probably village

Does she avoid suspecting you when wolf? Or does the way she’s suspecting you here feel notable villagey?

 

[Animal Midwife]

Visc was taking some weird issue with Genny interacting with you. And so Genny asked Visc in reply, “you want the thread to shut down completely?” Which would be in opposition to what Genny was doing by interacting. And then you chime in and say that Genny wants to shut down the thread.

Except I didn't say that at all for starters. Are you sure you read that whole interaction?

 

[cubsrule4e]

genny has made me laugh 5 times so I can't vote for her rn


unvote genny vote cubs

For complaining about a measly 2 pages when we're 12 hours into the day, smh

I know. I deserve it. I’m still kinda deflated from that last game.

 

[Viscernable]

Visc was taking some weird issue with Genny interacting with you. And so Genny asked Visc in reply, “you want the thread to shut down completely?” Which would be in opposition to what Genny was doing by interacting. And then you chime in and say that Genny wants to shut down the thread.

I didn’t have an issue with the interaction, I wanted to understand why genny felt that AM was seeing genny as a wolf. I still don’t see AM’s posts as calling genny wolfy, but my understanding from genny’s reply is that she just wanted to see how AM would react and she figured AM was reading her wolfy because AM usually does.

 

[WildZoo]

Does she avoid suspecting you when wolf? Or does the way she’s suspecting you here feel notable villagey?

I haven't gone back to check her wolfing games but I do remember the last time I had a "wtf is this vote for me, sunny" kneejerk reaction she was village

Also typical for her to back off once I said she was probably village

 

[WildZoo]

I know. I deserve it. I’m still kinda deflated from that last game.

AtE noted

 

[Zenge142]

This is … a lot. Aren’t we just supposed to be feeling things out at this stage?

Supposed to? I threw out the guide book on what we’re supposed to do. Keep up Cubbie.

But seriously, It had been established by both AM and Dubz that we most likely have a pack of 2.

So my mind was on two. When Vis’s use of language diverged from what we’d established, I had to ask why and what the likely possible outcomes were. Seemed like of the possibilities, the probabilities point more towards village!Vis.

 

[cubsrule4e]

AtE noted

You and zenge should, at minimum, be the two that understand!

 

[cubsrule4e]

Supposed to? I threw out the guide book on what we’re supposed to do. Keep up Cubbie.

But seriously, It had been established by both AM and Dubz that we most likely have a pack of 2.

So my mind was on two. When Vis’s use of language diverged from what we’d established, I had to ask why and what the likely possible outcomes were. Seemed like of the possibilities, the probabilities point more towards village!Vis.

With the phrasing of “killer” at the opening statements, and in such a small game, I am inclined to believe in the 1 wolf plus conversion opportunity scenario. But yes, 2 wolves no matter how you get there.

 

[Animal Midwife]

With the phrasing of “killer” at the opening statements, and in such a small game, I am inclined to believe in the 1 wolf plus conversion opportunity scenario. But yes, 2 wolves no matter how you get there.

One wolf + conversion is way more powerful (and thus wolf-sided) than 2 OGs. I'm hoping that isn't the case.

 

[WildZoo]

You and zenge should, at minimum, be the two that understand!

I do understand. Doesn't make it any less AtE. Just noting it

 

[Crayola227]

You very well might be right, and I have no wolf points for Vis currently, but I don't find scenario 2 all that hard to believe if wolf!Vis was attempting to avoid the appearance of TMI.

Just noting it. Probably being contrary for contrarian's sake.

Zenge sort of neglecting this possibility in order to village read someone feels kind of fishy to me.

 

[Crayola227]

genny has made me laugh 5 times so I can't vote for her rn


unvote genny vote cubs

For complaining about a measly 2 pages when we're 12 hours into the day, smh

Agree with this. Lil early for cubs to be complaining about failing behind. Not sure if AI though

 

[Crayola227]

I mean, having wolfed with Vis, I don’t remember her being obsessively over concerned with tiny details like using plural vs. singular and how it would be perceived. I do think scenario two is possible but I think between the two options scenario one just seems more likely.

This feels weak because not sure just wolfing with someone would give you this level of insight into the inner workings of their mind. I swear you guys, it's not like the average wolfpack is literally running every.tiny.post past wolf chat just for this sort of help with grammar planning.

This kind of logic from Zenge worries me.

 

[Crayola227]

hm. that's not something i'm often accused of on D1.

Actually I agree.

 

[Crayola227]

I haven't gone back to check her wolfing games but I do remember the last time I had a "wtf is this vote for me, sunny" kneejerk reaction she was village

Also typical for her to back off once I said she was probably village

Careful, she pocketed me HARD in England iirc, just by being more agreeable, especially when I village read her.

Mel has been trying to pocket me more as a wolf as well.

They have some similarities in style that way.

 

[WildZoo]

This feels weak because not sure just wolfing with someone would give you this level of insight into the inner workings of their mind. I swear you guys, it's not like the average wolfpack is literally running every.tiny.post past wolf chat just for this sort of help with grammar planning.

This kind of logic from Zenge worries me.

Eh. I'm not all that concerned. Both of those posts read like village Zenge to me.

Your sus of him pretty much confirms it

 

[WildZoo]

Careful, she pocketed me HARD in England iirc, just by being more agreeable, especially when I village read her.

Mel has been trying to pocket me more as a wolf as well.

They have some similarities in style that way.

Noted. I'm just considering it good enough for d1.

 

[Crayola227]

You and zenge should, at minimum, be the two that understand!

I'm the only one that really understands and appreciates you, Cubs.

 

[WildZoo]

I'm the only one that really understands and appreciates you, Cubs.

Is that because you're packmates?

 

[Crayola227]

One wolf + conversion is way more powerful (and thus wolf-sided) than 2 OGs. I'm hoping that isn't the case.

But there's always things that can be done on the village side to try to balance that out. I don't find this compelling.

There's certain lines of shutting down thought on some things that last game has left me feeling much less tolerant about so be forewarned people.

 

[Animal Midwife]

But there's always things that can be done on the village side to try to balance that out. I don't find this compelling.

There's certain lines of shutting down thought on some things that last game has left me feeling much less tolerant about so be forewarned people.

Last game has nothing to do with this as last game was both balanced and also matched what I said being mechanically possible.

 

[Crayola227]

Is that because you're packmates?

Nah, I stood up for him and went to bat in Alpha Dubz (I won't remember the game's real name so that is what I call it now) and besides the mechanical argument last game otherwise was fairly backed off his Richard. So no, I don't think you have a good case this is evidence of a wolf!Cray or wolf!Cubs just based on this.

But nice attempt to shade both of us over it, lol.

 

[WildZoo]

Nah, I stood up for him and went to bat in Alpha Dubz (I won't remember the game's real name so that is what I call it now) and besides the mechanical argument last game otherwise was fairly backed off his Richard. So no, I don't think you have a good case this is evidence of a wolf!Cray or wolf!Cubs just based on this.

But nice attempt to shade both of us over it, lol.

It was a joke, cray. I don't think you'd literally say that to a packmate on thread.

 

[WildZoo]

Also lol at MHA being called Alpha Dubz when I didn't even win

 

[Chaostrodon]

Cray sounds like she is trying to reduce the town perception of everyone else in the game and Im finding it pretty scummy atm

Unvote sunny , vote Cray

This feels weak because not sure just wolfing with someone would give you this level of insight into the inner workings of their mind. I swear you guys, it's not like the average wolfpack is literally running every.tiny.post past wolf chat just for this sort of help with grammar planning.

This kind of logic from Zenge worries me.

Careful, she pocketed me HARD in England iirc, just by being more agreeable, especially when I village read her.

Mel has been trying to pocket me more as a wolf as well.

They have some similarities in style that way.

She is countering every townleanings people are making and is also calling everyone else sus.
Besides , in my limited experience , I usually find something towny about Cray early on in the games that she was town

 

[Crayola227]

Last game has nothing to do with this as last game was both balanced and also matched what I said being mechanically possible.

No, but you cleared Shorty on shaky grounds, and shut down any discussion about her having any affiliation other than village. And here you're shutting down talk of what sort of wolves we might be hunting.

I don't want to get off into the weeds of convert hunting, but noting the possibility now seems not only harmless, but valid and may be of use later.

It's when we refuse to even consider things that I think we go wrong.

 

[cubsrule4e]

I'm the only one that really understands and appreciates you, Cubs.

F5 village 2 games in a row creates a solid bond.

 

[WildZoo]

Cray sounds like she is trying to reduce the town perception of everyone else in the game and Im finding it pretty scummy atm

Unvote sunny , vote Cray





She is countering every townleanings people are making and is also calling everyone else sus.
Besides , in my limited experience , I usually find something towny about Cray early on in the games that she was town

That seems like normal early game cray to me? Like she usually comes in here sussing everyone every which way.

 

[Animal Midwife]

No, but you cleared Shorty on shaky grounds, and shut down any discussion about her having any affiliation other than village. And here you're shutting down talk of what sort of wolves we might be hunting.

I don't want to get off into the weeds of convert hunting, but noting the possibility now seems not only harmless, but valid and may be of use later.

It's when we refuse to even consider things that I think we go wrong.

Am I clearing anyone here or am I talking about balance? Remember last game when you said there could be two wolves alive and it compelled you to feel comfortable with misyeeting Lawpy? That's what I'm talking about. Assume things are balanced until proven otherwise.

 

[Crayola227]

Cray sounds like she is trying to reduce the town perception of everyone else in the game and Im finding it pretty scummy atm

Unvote sunny , vote Cray





She is countering every townleanings people are making and is also calling everyone else sus.
Besides , in my limited experience , I usually find something towny about Cray early on in the games that she was town

Don't know what to tell you dude, except you feel weird to me this game.

Me reading every single post to see if it seems scummy, and also considering the likelihood of every single player being scummy, *is* my meta in a nutshell. I can't tell you what towntell you get from me in games, but I can tell you this isn't a scumtell for me.

That you're trying to say it is....

Last game was a departure for me as far as being a little too cum-by-yah and let's hold hands village circle, that someone I would normally have made a point to evaluate, got a pass and we lost.

So I'm over correcting and back to especially paranoid Cray.

 

[Chaostrodon]

That seems like normal early game cray to me? Like she usually comes in here sussing everyone every which way.

No , she susses only you like that , not everyone in the game

 

[Crayola227]

Am I clearing anyone here or am I talking about balance? Remember last game when you said there could be two wolves alive and it compelled you to feel comfortable with misyeeting Lawpy? That's what I'm talking about. Assume things are balanced until proven otherwise.

Um, no, and I'm going to tell you now you have a talent for mistaking when I am theorizing for what I actually believe. I even said I didn't believe in the Lawpy vote. Trying to shine a turd on what remote possibilities would at least be eliminated.

 

[Crayola227]

No , she susses only you like that , not everyone in the game

Oh, you sweet summer child. Where have you been?

 

[cubsrule4e]

Am I clearing anyone here or am I talking about balance? Remember last game when you said there could be two wolves alive and it compelled you to feel comfortable with misyeeting Lawpy? That's what I'm talking about. Assume things are balanced until proven otherwise.

Remember last game when you said I was the last wolf and you had a foolproof plan to smoke me out? Yeah, me too.

 

[Crayola227]

Am I clearing anyone here or am I talking about balance? Remember last game when you said there could be two wolves alive and it compelled you to feel comfortable with misyeeting Lawpy? That's what I'm talking about. Assume things are balanced until proven otherwise.

And it doesn't matter if you're talking specifically about clearing or about balance. Not my point. What is the same, is you trying to say "well this wouldn't be possible" without actually considering how it might be. Major peeve of mine and not one I'm going to be able to overlook in the aftermath of last game.

 

[cubsrule4e]

Oh, you sweet summer child. Where have you been?

This makes my soul rejoice.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Um, no, and I'm going to tell you now you have a talent for mistaking when I am theorizing for what I actually believe. I even said I didn't believe in the Lawpy vote. Trying to shine a turd on what remote possibilities would at least be eliminated.

Well, voting there when it would have been extremely unlikely for him to be a wolf in a 1 wolf world seemed like you believed it to me.

What I'm getting at is there's a difference between evaluating people with one wolf in the game versus two. You will misclear or, even worse, misyeet people because you're not looking for w/w interactions. That has lost games more than once. Conversion is never something to seriously consider, believe in, or look for on D1 unless you're playing a bastard game. I'm not considering conversion unless we have an unexplainable no kill night.

 

[Chaostrodon]

That seems like normal early game cray to me? Like she usually comes in here sussing everyone every which way.

Look at the donut game for instance ,

She only sussed you and Bob d1 , and didnt contend any townreads the others had

 

[Animal Midwife]

Remember last game when you said I was the last wolf and you had a foolproof plan to smoke me out? Yeah, me too.

Yep. That happened in the same cycle where you said "I'll only vote AM or Lawpy lol". Unfortunate when we misclear people and lose, right?

 

[cubsrule4e]

Yep. That happened in the same cycle where you said "I'll only vote AM or Lawpy lol". Unfortunate when we misclear people and lose, right?

You act like you had no role in the misclearing. BOTH cray and I at some point in time expressed some inkling of doubt towards the "cleared" shorty and you shut it down like we were both wolves on the prowl.

 

[WildZoo]

No , she susses only you like that , not everyone in the game

Look at the donut game for instance ,

She only sussed you and Bob d1 , and didnt contend any townreads the others had

Lol I'll go back and refresh my memory on cray meta tomorrow but I do think historically she comes in replying "sus" to most posts, and that game may have been an anomaly because she was less active or something.