Yeah, I can't judge much without knowing her. It's possible her school is low/an unknown (a close friend of mine came from a small school in the deep south, had a devastatingly good application, and got little feedback. One of his interviewers asked him if his college is real or not. He eventually got into a pretty decent school, though.), but I would guess either her ECs are too typical, or her descriptions/PS were written poorly. Seems unlikely though. Hopefully something will work out! 🙂
California doesn't help premed2000's case, but I would bet cash money the entire*problem is having applied when you all did. Late September isn't "kinda late" like people try to represent it as, it's "you should just take the year off" late. (doing secondaries around this time is iffy, too). Of course, your essay could've been lackluster.
Honestly, I think with the number of people taking year(s) off these days, traditional students are increasingly at a disadvantage. With your stats, I would almost recommend saying screw-it to this year, do something fun/interesting or clinically relevant, and apply day one next year. You'll likely have a substantially different application season. I would do everything in your power to not get discouraged, as there's a very good chance it was time, not ability, that worked against you.
The AAMC and schools should really be more upfront about how severely applying late penalizes people. I applied late and I'm 100% certain I would have a substantially better season if I had applied earlier. If by now I hadn't gotten good feedback, I'd be planning to do so (unless you don't care about prestige or anything like that and just want to get in anywhere).
We'll get in eventually! For some of us, that will mean taking a year or two off to do something awesome and personally compelling, or just to improve our chances by applying earlier. For others, it'll happen now. We'll see!