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I hope we haven't had any secret conversions. That would throw everything into chaos. But anyway...update on lotf, I was reading AB's vote for her on day 3 and some of her posts in context, it really did seem like AB was hopping from one lynch to another that day to try to find one that would stick, she hopped on lotf after LIS had pointed out something sketchy, and then over to teep when no one else was interested in lotf, and then finally to AM. I put less stock in that than I do in clearing her day 1 votes because by day 3 her fellow wolves probably would have mentioned it is a good idea to vote for wolves, but it is something to note.

I'm really beginning to think maybe we should take another look at 1dogg. She seemed to fade pretty well into the background after AB was lynched, and I still find it interesting that kaydubs voted for a 3rd party in that lynch. Her votes on other days were for players already in the lead if I'm remembering correctly.
 
BSC - i will eventually find the other post I made about her and remind myself why she was low on my list
I am convinced the post does not exist. FFS. Either I'm an idiot and mixed up her and BBC in my list making, or I'm an idiot and arbitrarily left her at the bottom of the list. So...I need to reread her posts too. :eggface:
 
Tomorrow morning, I'll be able to start analyzing people's posts. I really feel I need to do this before making additional comments on anyone in particular. So be ready for a very long analysis from me tomorrow morning.
 
I don't care about being on your suspicion list. Seriously, do not care. I've just noticed that you've only cared to look at veterans, that's it. You've got the tunnel vision, I'm just pointing it out.
is it tunnel vision to keep on pointing out someone's tunnel vision?
 
Okay....

lynch zen

for now...

read through a lot of zen's posts....

At first glance I was thinking, "wow, zen finds interesting stuff", but then as it added up it started to feel a little like what I try to do as a wolf. Point out a lot of suspicious stuff to divert villagers off on the wrong trail. It was just too much, and too off-base stuff like.. .

this..
trying to make lotf sound wolfy about her "tells" comment
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/thr...and-game-thread.1206422/page-41#post-17914418

or this.
trying to make teeps look like a wolf due to an obvious typo.
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/thr...and-game-thread.1206422/page-41#post-17913796

or this..
pointing out jilary's sketchiness over concerns over LIS vote.
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/thr...and-game-thread.1206422/page-38#post-17909076

or this about LIS
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/thr...and-game-thread.1206422/page-34#post-17900205


there are some others earlier as well.
I know that we try to find inconsistencies to find wolves, and Zen will probably say was just doing that, but the posts when you start read them all sound like a wolf trying to be helpful and plausible and just point out anything that leads away from the wolves.

Just my reading of the nuance. I admit it is not overwhelmingly obvious.
 
I want to point out that with 10 players left, 2 of them probably have roles if there is still a villager assassin + the mason.

If we can keep those 2 alive, end game might be a little easier.
 
Last post for night..... until we are down to only a few players, I am going to assume that conversion has to happen on a no-kill night, because that is the traditional way to play it. Could be wrong, but it feels right.
 
I want to point out that with 10 players left, 2 of them probably have roles if there is still a villager assassin + the mason.

If we can keep those 2 alive, end game might be a little easier.
But how would we know this information? The Mason can't role reveal, and don't assassin's usually have only 1 kill, so how could that person make end game easier?
 
Last post for night..... until we are down to only a few players, I am going to assume that conversion has to happen on a no-kill night, because that is the traditional way to play it. Could be wrong, but it feels right.
Or no conversion. If we think this is more like the all-star game, didn't that not have conversion
 
Continued Zen analysis seems pretty irrelevant at the moment since it amounts to "I pretty much think she's a villager" and I don't think anyone had any suspicions on her right now anyway. So I'm going to switch focus to DVMD. My current feelings are villager for her too. And then maybe SOV?

Bare bones stuff...

jilary - most wolfy feels here, and i think my analysis is sound, but I'm starting to sound like a broken record so considering other options may be a good idea

DVMD - i disagree with whatever someone said about her posts not having content. She was strong in the AB lynch and really pushed for LIS not to be lynched. Seems pretty villager to me, but i will do a more thorough analysis

lotf - neutral-ish...way too much emphasis on her "tell" for my liking. There are little things that could point to villagerness, but not enough to make her clear in my mind. I don't think AB was lynched entirely without wolf help and she was one of the weaker votes.

1dogg - Noob stuff. The only thing i have in her favor is that AB lynch but no guarantee she's a villager there.

teep - foot in mouth syndrome. Doesn't sound like his wolf self.

SOV - could go either way, early interactions between wolves and RM lead me to believe he's not a wolf though

BSC - i will eventually find the other post I made about her and remind myself why she was low on my list

Zen - villager, pretty sure of it (if I'm wrong, well played)

rojo - he's got that STL pelt, but what has he done for us lately? He's been in my villager category all game so i may need to reevaluate just in case i missed something
What have anyone done for us this game? We have killed 2 wolves, kaydubs killed herself...
 
Since there is at least one other mason, there is one person who both knew that PBC was a villager and also has a proof of villager themselves. Part of me would like to know who that is so I can rule a person out of wolfiness completely. Another can see why they think they should keep quiet.

I also still wanna know what happened with that day kill the other day. Does that person seem more wolfy or villager? Does that increase or decrease my suspicions of that player?

This is what I'm working on today. I think.
Others have given more reasons why this wouldn't work out. One more - if there are only two masons, the second (First? Mason #1) does NOT have proof of villagerness since their mason buddy died. If the second mason outs themselves, all we'd have is their word for it.

With that being said, I will be surprised if someone who's not a mason claims it because it can be counter-claimed easily.
 
I was half joking, half referring to the fact that since then you haven't contributed as much as some others in terms of content
I disagree there too. I lead the incorrect animal midwife and lis lynches. And every one of my posts is 100% golden. I get likes from dead people and living alike. So while my contributions haven't been successful, they have been there and forceful/convincing enough that enough others have followed along. That's a thing about me that makes me a good leader/mayor and a constantly sketchy and worrisome player
 
I disagree there too. I lead the incorrect animal midwife and lis lynches. And every one of my posts is 100% golden. I get likes from dead people and living alike. So while my contributions haven't been successful, they have been there and forceful/convincing enough that enough others have followed along. That's a thing about me that makes me a good leader/mayor and a constantly sketchy and worrisome player
K I'll write you down for leading two villager lynches then, happy? 😛

You're still the villageriest person on my list, I just don't like to go a whole game with someone cleared for one action, and it felt like it was time for me to take a look at your posts and make sure of my thoughts. But there are other priorities...which I may not get to before this lynch closes unfortunately.
 
I disagree there too. I lead the incorrect animal midwife and lis lynches. And every one of my posts is 100% golden. I get likes from dead people and living alike. So while my contributions haven't been successful, they have been there and forceful/convincing enough that enough others have followed along. That's a thing about me that makes me a good leader/mayor and a constantly sketchy and worrisome player
This post has a weird combination of snark and defensiveness. Too many Mai tais already? Or something else leaking out? Looking forward to your next (fool's) gold post.
 
Others have given more reasons why this wouldn't work out. One more - if there are only two masons, the second (First? Mason #1) does NOT have proof of villagerness since their mason buddy died. If the second mason outs themselves, all we'd have is their word for it.

With that being said, I will be surprised if someone who's not a mason claims it because it can be counter-claimed easily.
What is your point? Sounds like you contradicted yourself. If the wolves know they can't claim to be the mason without being in a he said she said, where a wolf goes down 50/50, then anyone claiming mason would almost definitely be mason.

The bigger issue is whether the mason is allowed to reveal. Usually they can't talk about it while they are both alive, .... it is unclear if they could talk about it when one of them is already dead.
 
Not really a fan of how yesterday's lynch went. Why did 4 people decide to wait until the last 2 hours of a 48 hour day to vote? Something about that last hour to hour and a half of the cycle...idk, it's got me wondering.
This was also the feeling that I got while reading through it. Going to read back through to see if I can follow the chain of events. I think when I started work their were only 2 people who hadn't voted yet, and 2 must have waffled.
 
official lynch tally:
WZ 2
(sobsob, lotf)
jilary 2 (WZ, BBC)
lotf 3 (teep, dvmd, zen)
BBC 3 (BSC, 1dog, rojo)

10/12 votes cast
7/12 minimums met

This was the tally then I last saw it before work. Jilary and PBC were the only ones not voting at this point, and PBC turned up village. Jilary dropped her BBC vote a half hour before lynch close, and LOTF almost immediately followed with a waffle from WZ to BBC. It really feels like at least one of the two is a wolf.
 
Regarding the remaining wolves: I'm thinking that there are 2 left at this point. I'm not certain on converts. I don't think that kaydubs would have given herself up if it was going to leave a solo wolf left to take on the 10 or 12 of us that were left at that point.
 
This was the tally then I last saw it before work. Jilary and PBC were the only ones not voting at this point, and PBC turned up village. Jilary dropped her BBC vote a half hour before lynch close, and LOTF almost immediately followed with a waffle from WZ to BBC. It really feels like at least one of the two is a wolf.

Yeah, when I put the second vote on BBC I really wasn't expecting everyone to waffle or vote like that. I waited because I was hoping to get on the computer to do a better analysis of players before I voted, until I realized that 10pm game time is 9pm my time and I wouldn't be getting home from work until shortly before then if not after.
 
Regarding the remaining wolves: I'm thinking that there are 2 left at this point. I'm not certain on converts. I don't think that kaydubs would have given herself up if it was going to leave a solo wolf left to take on the 10 or 12 of us that were left at that point.
I kind of agree. Hard to see Kaydubs (or Dyachei for that matter) crippling the wolf pack so much that late in the game.
 
I kind of agree. Hard to see Kaydubs (or Dyachei for that matter) crippling the wolf pack so much that late in the game.
Kaydubs seemed legitimately unhappy /unwell (get better soon!) and I think did it regardless of game implications, and if dy was being totally neutral, she mod killed several people hopefully without regard for affiliation, it's almost in equal proportion
 
This post has a weird combination of snark and defensiveness. Too many Mai tais already? Or something else leaking out? Looking forward to your next (fool's) gold post.
Eh, mainly just snark.

My point was, no one has really done anything for any of us this game... It's been a lot of anyone's particular brand of analysis, my first guess happened to be dead on, another early on one was correct (not sure who is even getting the most kudos for AB) and then every one else has been wrong as far as we can tell. So my point was, I've been vocally wrong twice at least and besides being busy irl have been my usual active self.
 
What is your point? Sounds like you contradicted yourself. If the wolves know they can't claim to be the mason without being in a he said she said, where a wolf goes down 50/50, then anyone claiming mason would almost definitely be mason.

The bigger issue is whether the mason is allowed to reveal. Usually they can't talk about it while they are both alive, .... it is unclear if they could talk about it when one of them is already dead.
You're right, I didn't make it clear. I was trying to say that claiming mason would not be proof of villagerness because there's no one to support that claim. After that, I was trying to figure out why someone might falsely claim mason and realized that, outside of a desperate attempt to stop a lynch, there's not much point because of the easy counterclaim.

If someone stepped forward and said they were the mason and no one counter-claimed, I would rank them higher on my villager list but not consider them cleared of possible wolf alignment (maybe the other mason wants to keep their head low/avoid getting lynched as counterclaim or, on the outside possibility that conversions can happen on kill nights, the mason may be converted). If someone said they were mason during a lynch defense, I would not believe them because they have every reason to lie and nothing to lose.

Before this discussion, I'd never heard of a setup where masons can't discuss their affiliation openly, so I hadn't factored that into my scenarios. From what I've seen, masons don't reveal because they would make easy conversion/kill targets, but there's nothing stopping them from doing so.
 
Official lynch tally:
WZ 1
(LotF)
jil 1 (WZ)
zen 1 (SOV)

3/10 votes cast
1/10 mins met
22 hours later and not another vote cast?
WTH?

@dyachei can you just kill the other 7 people and leave LOTF, WZ, and me? I think that is fair.

Be interesting who jumps on at the end here...
 
I bet it is Pokemon Go. My hubby and I live in the middle of nowhere so the game is useless, but I've heard it is quite addicting if you live in the city. (Quiet rant here)
 
Well if it is just the 3 of us... I'm very tempted to take my vote off WZ and join one of you in your vote. I was getting pretty good feels from Zen earlier.

He was one of the ones that if we had a wolf veteran trying to lecture wolf noobs before conversation was possible, the posts might read that way. SOV, you were one of the others, along with DVMD, STL and LIS. I figure at least one of you was lecturing to a very specific kind of noob. Zen though, also had backed off of the usual high sounding posts. That is what had made me most curious there.

Sorry, just musing and trying to talk myself into a different vote...
 
Well if it is just the 3 of us... I'm very tempted to take my vote off WZ and join one of you in your vote. I was getting pretty good feels from Zen earlier.

He was one of the ones that if we had a wolf veteran trying to lecture wolf noobs before conversation was possible, the posts might read that way. SOV, you were one of the others, along with DVMD, STL and LIS. I figure at least one of you was lecturing to a very specific kind of noob. Zen though, also had backed off of the usual high sounding posts. That is what had made me most curious there.

Sorry, just musing and trying to talk myself into a different vote...
Clarify, yes, STL was there and a wolf, but the tone continued after he left for some of you, but not others.
 
Well if it is just the 3 of us... I'm very tempted to take my vote off WZ and join one of you in your vote. I was getting pretty good feels from Zen earlier.

He was one of the ones that if we had a wolf veteran trying to lecture wolf noobs before conversation was possible, the posts might read that way. SOV, you were one of the others, along with DVMD, STL and LIS. I figure at least one of you was lecturing to a very specific kind of noob. Zen though, also had backed off of the usual high sounding posts. That is what had made me most curious there.

Sorry, just musing and trying to talk myself into a different vote...
I wasn't playing at the beginning, so......
 
I guess it was Rojo. But with fewer posts in the beginning, that's why I keep knocking him off the list.
I think you just got added because I remembered 4...
 
Good lord, I give up talking. Can't concentrate enough to get out even a single post without an error I want to correct.
Order by quantity :
DVMD
LIS
STL
Zen
Rojo

By likelihood to be talking to other wolves:
DVMD
STL
LIS
Zen
Rojo

At least how I Remer it currently while my kid is fussing at me to get off the phone.
 
Ok, analysis time.... going down the list in order by the last posted player list by dy....

So, technically, I am first, but not going to analyze my own posts, that means nothing in the game of ww...

So, LoTF is next....

Starting off fairly early, suspicion was mentioned about LoTF because she mentioned that she's only been a wolf once so she doesn't know many wolf roles but does believe there isn't a wolf tracker. Meh, I could take that as suspicious or not... either way on that. What I find suspicious has to do with the AB lynch and yes, she did vote for AB, but her vote was much more of a "throw away" vote, AB was already in the lead at the point she voted and her last toss on vote for AB didn't seem as genuine, especially if you read her prior post....

So my current list reads:
1A. WZ due to sheltermed's posting mostly
1B. LIS mainly due to a couple of tiny things and the way I keep reading his first 2 days of posts as advice to wolves. It just doesn't sit well in my gut and obviously just a little for his wanting to lynch me (I will admit it)
1C. Guiz due to the PM thing. I hear that it might just be miscommunication but, maybe it was a slip up.

2. 1 dog and AB <3 -- I feel these guys are just nooby, but also some of the slip ups could be noob wolfy and odds do suggest that at least one of our super recent additions got handed a wolf role.

3. Teep and PBC -- minor feels

This is what I've got from reading through today. Did I miss something obvious?


Then she posts her lynch vote here...


I think I'm going to go with a vote to remove the quietest of the presented choices and Lynch AB <3

At the time she posted that lynch vote, AB already had 5 votes vs. 1dog's 4 votes.... a vote for 1dog would have been suspicious as hell. She doesn't vote for any of her top three suspicions. And uses the reason for AB as "remove the quietest of choices", instead of anything to do with her suspicions.

Anyway, moving past that... her defense is that she won't state "I am a villager" unless she actually is. Ok, WW is based upon lying. Sorry this isn't a defense, this is just dumb. This is dumb because in any game all people have to do is ask her if she is a villager and well, you should get the idea from there. You can't use that you won't lie in a game of lying as a defense. That just doesn't work in my opinion.

Ok... on to the next player.

Oh I also ignored the entire page or whatever it was of her and I "arguing", I don't find that to be important to analyzing game play so I just skipped over it.
 
life is keeping me busy the past few days!

I know I had posted yesterday that I wasn't terribly fond of the jil lynch idea, but yesterday's last minute waffling has me questioning that.
 
Ok, Teep....

Early on, he (I'm sorry if you are a she, I forget with you every time) was definitely defending STL... After STL revealed, he unlynched sandy and put his vote in for hayley to "put his vote in a more meaningful position" now this sticks out like a sore thumb because the vote count at the time had guis in the lead with 6, STL with 5, RM with 3, then hayley, genny and LoTF all tied with 2 and a bunch of people with 1....

If you wanted your post in a "more meaningful position" why would you pick a player that really isn't leading the lynch especially when there are 2 others (not including STL) who were ahead of that person? Wouldn't a vote on one of them have been more "meaningful" at that time? Yes, hayley did get lynched but Teep would have had no way to know that was going to occur... so that sticks out as odd to me so far....

Moving on... to the weird posting a reason for lynch AB and instead lynching 1dog... yeah, not sure what to think of that to be honest.

The rest of the game Teep has been fairly quiet...

That is about the end I have on Teep.

Next player...
 
At the time she posted that lynch vote, AB already had 5 votes vs. 1dog's 4 votes.... a vote for 1dog would have been suspicious as hell. She doesn't vote for any of her top three suspicions. And uses the reason for AB as "remove the quietest of choices", instead of anything to do with her suspicions.

Anyway, moving past that... her defense is that she won't state "I am a villager" unless she actually is. Ok, WW is based upon lying. Sorry this isn't a defense, this is just dumb. This is dumb because in any game all people have to do is ask her if she is a villager and well, you should get the idea from there. You can't use that you won't lie in a game of lying as a defense. That just doesn't work in my opinion.

Ok... on to the next player.

Oh I also ignored the entire page or whatever it was of her and I "arguing", I don't find that to be important to analyzing game play so I just skipped over it.

Also don't like the I'm a villager simply because I say I am excuse. Maybe it's true maybe not, but I don't wanna take anything at face value this game. It's also been brought up as a defense a few times instead of bringing up more points on game play and how that indicates villager vs wolf.

(Also, for my learning sake - why would voting for me then be so sketch? Because it would make a tie? Do both people tend to die in ties?)
 
Jilary...

Jilary also started out "not feeling the STL lynch" then when WTF revealed STL was a wolf she never actually voted for STL. Which is a bit odd since she acknowledged WTF's post, but I have forgotten to post a lynch vote before too, so meh, I can sit with a wash that not voting for him likely doesn't mean anything.

And she started the whole LoTF "I'm a villager thing".... which to be honest, is just slightly more eye-rolly than possibly wolfy... 😉 (I just had to include it though)

Also the whole LIS debacle which started during the AB lynch, no vote from her for AB, but there were others who didn't as well, so just not sure what to think of that since that lynch really could have gone anywhere. I believe she was also on LIS' list... which may have a wolf on it or it may not.

I'm also not sure I agree with her reason for stating she didn't vote for STL right away... I asked her that day why she wasn't lynching STL and no response. Also her response to WTF when she revealed was....

Well crap. I wish you would have been able to lead a lynch on STL a little more subtly, but I guess it's better to know now than later.

In case anyone needs her reasoning for not voting STL this is what she said:

I didn't vote to lynch STL right away because I wanted some discussion first before reaching plurality (something I've said many times in this game). I think more often than not, plurality helps wolves, not villagers. The over paranoid WWer in me also wasn't 100% sure I wanted to believe WTF when she first outed herself. I thought she would have found a more subtle way of lynching STL if she were the seer. I thought it was possible that she was a wolf and just wanted us to lynch our seer to ensure his death to avoid worrying about the protector. In retrospect that would have been a stupid wolf move. Also, after I made my post reacting to WTF's post, I didn't come back on the thread because I was at my high school reunion and quite intoxicated.

But there was no attempt or even mention during that lynch of STL of her being suspicious of the above. Maybe it was because she was intoxicated, definitely possible, but I would have believed an "oops, I meant to but forgot to add it in" over the above reasoning. The above is just bizarre to me since she never mentioned it during the actual lynch.

Ok, next player...
 
Also don't like the I'm a villager simply because I say I am excuse. Maybe it's true maybe not, but I don't wanna take anything at face value this game. It's also been brought up as a defense a few times instead of bringing up more points on game play and how that indicates villager vs wolf.

(Also, for my learning sake - why would voting for me then be so sketch? Because it would make a tie? Do both people tend to die in ties?)

Making a tie at that point would have been very odd and very suspicious. Whether both people die or not is up to the mod and varies by game.
 
I have made it through 3 players and not sure this is helping at all, to be honest, I think I could find something suspicious in everyone's postings..

I can continue if this is helping anyone else, but honestly, if we evaluate any of us this thoroughly we can find suspicious things...

I have to go by big game things and just feelings, that is how I have always played this game. I am more than willing to continue though if anyone is finding benefit.

My gut feelings on everyone are as follows:

1. LoTF- she has said some suspicious things, the vote on AB at the end is weird to me. Her defense is silly.
2. Teep- Suspicious basically all game. The "defense" of STL, the weird AB vs. 1dog lynch/explanation, then kind of tapering off and not posting as much.
3. Jilary- Honestly, can go either way with Jilary, she was gung-ho for LIS. Then the explanation for not lynching STL is just odd in my mind.
4. Zen- ok, I have to read Zen's posts because I have nothing on her. Other than she was much more vocal early on in the game and has seemed to faded into the shadows now.
5. SOV- He is always a wolf, until proven otherwise. I found his insistence on LIS to be very odd. Especially since he has played with LIS as much as I have, I honestly wasn't picking up on the wolfy vibes he was claiming. Then, he seems to have an outing for LIS quite often, so not sure if he was wolfy in the aspect or just doing his usual out to lynch LIS. He has since very much faded into the backround after LIS was lynched. Odd to me. He took over for RM if I am remembering correctly and RM had some weird posts early on.
6. BSC- I know people have been suspicious. I can't keep BSC and BBC separated. I do need to read her posts just to get some feelings going one way or the other. Also not a very active/vocal player
7. Rojo- He has the STL thing going for him. Would he be crazy enough to throw a wolf seer under the bus that early? I dunno. It is possible, but my gut is saying that would be stupid to do early on. I think the only way I can turn rojo into a wolf in my mind is if a conversion is present in this game. And I have stated it before, but I will again, I don't think a conversion is present this game. I could very much be wrong
8. 1dog- Noob. Not too many posts except when she was under heavy suspicion. I felt she answered things well. Will go back and read.
9. WZ- I feel she has been very helpful and definitely posting decent strategy to find wolves. Not feeling wolfiness at this time, but she can definitely be "helpful" when a wolf too. I am just not feeling that is the case this game. Might have to read through the person's posts that she took over to see how they were posting to get some feelings.

So, I kind of feel everyone could be a wolf for various reasons. Overall, LoTF, Teep and Jilary have been suspicious from early on. I still rank SOV up there fairly high and I need to read through Zen's posting as well....
 
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