GB declaration

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GaseousClay

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Was sent this by a friend not sure what my thought is yet seems to be similar to the WHO condemning lockdowns this week. Started by Harvard, Stanford and Oxford professors/doctors and signed by thousands of healthcare professionals and other people. Since obviously SDN anesthesia has the wisest folks just wanted to hear some thoughts that hopefully doesn't spiral into Orange man bad talk.

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The declaration advocates that individuals at high risk of death from infection should continue staying at home, and that people at low risk resume their normal lives, by working away from home and attending mass gatherings.[5][6] They hope that as a result most of these lower-risk people will contract the infection but not die, and that the resulting immune response will prevent the SARS-CoV-2 virus from spreading to higher-risk people. The declaration makes no mention of social distancing, masks, contact tracing, nor of COVID-19 testing.[4]

...

Harvard University professor of epidemiology William Hanage criticized the logic of the declaration's signatories: "After pointing out, correctly, the indirect damage caused by the pandemic, they respond that the answer is to increase the direct damage caused by it", and attacked the feasibility of the idea of "Focused Protection" for those vulnerable to severe infection, saying that "stating that you can keep the virus out of places by testing at a time when the White House has an apparently ongoing outbreak should illustrate how likely that is."[5] He asked, "how would you keep the virus out if 10 percent of the younger population is infected at peak prevalence and with tests that cannot keep the virus out of the White House?"[20] He called the declaration "quite dangerous, for multiple reasons", explaining that "if you do this, you’ll get more infections, more hospitalizations and more deaths" and that "the greatest risk of introduction to the most vulnerable communities will be when the rate of infection is really high in younger age groups."[20] Hanage cautioned that uncontrolled infections among the young run the risk of long-term medical effects of the disease.[5] He added that "we tend to make contacts with people around our own age, and given that none of the older generations would have immunity, they'd be in contact networks at risk of devastating outbreaks" and further explained that blanket lockdowns were not argued for by most experts in any case.[20]

Gregg Gonsalves, assistant professor of epidemiology at Yale University, described the strategy proposed by the declaration as "culling the herd of the sick and disabled", calling it "grotesque".[40] Arguing nearly half the American population is considered to have underlying risk factors for the infection, he advocated for the prevailing quarantine strategy, since peaks in infection rates among the young were likely to correlate with deaths of more vulnerable older people.[20] He wrote: "if you're going to turbo-charge community spread, as everyone else at 'low-risk' goes about their business, I want the plan for my 86-year-old mother to be more than theoretical."[20]
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Further, it sounds like an astroturfing effort by the Koch Brothers

" It was sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research, a libertarian think tank that is part of a Koch-funded network of organizations associated with climate change denial.[7][8] "


 
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Jesus christ. Can't believe that the experts who actually know what they're talking about have to waste their time debunking stupid crap like this all the time. The only way one could possibly think this will work is if you have zero understanding of how this virus spreads and zero common sense. This has already been condemned by every major public health organization and institution and every leading organization that represents infectious disease experts, not only in this country but throughout countries all over the world, including the Director of the WHO Dr. Tedros, Director of the NIH Dr. Collins, Dr. Fauci, and the American Public Health Association.


Even the city of Great Barrington, MA itself has condemned this stupid thing:
 
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So multiple full harvard professors including the former head of epidemiology at Harvard are less qualified than you to offer their opinion. How long do experts like you suppose we lock down?

I’m surprised this link is allowed to be shared.
 
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So we look at the GB website:

1602831044278.png


And you think oh ok, maybe this Kulldorff guy knows a lot of about the biostats and epidemiology of infectious diseases


And then you google the guy and see

1602831218973.png
 
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He’s also well published in infectious disease. Are you?
 
Lmao. Now show yours.

"

As of Tuesday, more than 30,000 academics, medical practitioners and public health scientists from the U.S., U.K. and other nations had allegedly signed the declaration, according to its website, marking the largest split from the prevailing scientific support for lockdowns as an anti-coronavirus strategy.

Sky News, however, found that the declaration contained numerous fake names including “Dr Johnny Bananas,” “Professor Cominic Dummings,” a person residing at the “university of your mum” and a professed specialist whose name was the first verse of the “Macarena,” according to the Guardian. There were also more than 100 therapists and homeopaths, who listed themselves as experts in fields ranging from massage to hypnotherapy.

"

 
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Are you surprised online petitions can be signed by fake names? Seems like an effective way to discredit something... but nonetheless that guy is objectively qualified to offer his opinion.



Yea, his opinion. Which is refuted by the actual evidence that herd immunity is for dumba$$es


"
This has understandably led to widespread demoralisation and diminishing trust. The arrival of a second wave and the realisation of the challenges ahead has led to renewed interest in a so-called herd immunity approach, which suggests allowing a large uncontrolled outbreak in the low-risk population while protecting the vulnerable. Proponents suggest this would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable.

This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence.

Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed. Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population. In addition to the human cost, this would impact the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of health-care systems to provide acute and routine care. Furthermore, there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection, and the endemic transmission that would be the consequence of waning immunity would present a risk to vulnerable populations for the indefinite future. Such a strategy would not end the COVID-19 pandemic but result in recurrent epidemics, as was the case with numerous infectious diseases before the advent of vaccination.
It would also place an unacceptable burden on the economy and health-care workers, many of whom have died from COVID-19 or experienced trauma as a result of having to practise disaster medicine. Additionally, we still do not understand who might suffer from long COVID. Defining who is vulnerable is complex, but even if we consider those at risk of severe illness, the proportion of vulnerable people constitute as much as 30% of the population in some regions. Prolonged isolation of large swathes of the population is practically impossible and highly unethical. Empirical evidence from many countries shows that it is not feasible to restrict uncontrolled outbreaks to particular sections of society. Such an approach also risks further exacerbating the socioeconomic inequities and structural discriminations already laid bare by the pandemic. Special efforts to protect the most vulnerable are essential but must go hand-in-hand with multi-pronged population-level strategies.
"
 
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Wow. Replying to save this just in case you decide to delete any of this part of this thread.

Don't worry, it ain't going anywhere. Gotta calls it like I sees it when people are getting their medical advice from Koch Brother-funded "thinktanks" and Dr Johnny Bananas.
 
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The real question here is how will labor epidurals affect a potential lockdown? I heard they are more likely to cause a decrease in the GDP....
 
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You can't really discredit every person that is supporting this thing. It would be nice to be able to have a
Jesus christ. Can't believe that the experts who actually know what they're talking about have to waste their time debunking stupid crap like this all the time. The only way one could possibly think this will work is if you have zero understanding of how this virus spreads and zero common sense. This has already been condemned by every major public health organization and institution and every leading organization that represents infectious disease experts, not only in this country but throughout countries all over the world, including the Director of the WHO Dr. Tedros, Director of the NIH Dr. Collins, Dr. Fauci, and the American Public Health Association.


Even the city of Great Barrington, MA itself has condemned this stupid thing:

I do not disagree with you but to say that what Fauci and Collins say supercedes other physicians/scientists that are legitimate in terms of research and publications just immediately kills any discussion we can try and have about this. Most of these leading organizations have their stance based on what they say and because this is so politicized one can not even present the data representing the other side. The WHO came out today saying now the consequences of the lockdown are too extreme and should not be used a method to curb this virus. If herd immunity is the ultimate goal of the vaccine then the point of the GB deserves to at least be discussed especially in the face of the social consequences that may come to our kids and young people in general (i.e. lack of schools, jobs, higher education etc..) I don't think all these doctors are discredited and have no merit.
 
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You can't really discredit every person that is supporting this thing. It would be nice to be able to have a


I do not disagree with you but to say that what Fauci and Collins say supercedes other physicians/scientists that are legitimate in terms of research and publications just immediately kills any discussion we can try and have about this. Most of these leading organizations have their stance based on what they say and because this is so politicized one can not even present the data representing the other side. The WHO came out today saying now the consequences of the lockdown are too extreme and should not be used a method to curb this virus. If herd immunity is the ultimate goal of the vaccine then the point of the GB deserves to at least be discussed especially in the face of the social consequences that may come to our kids and young people in general (i.e. lack of schools, jobs, higher education etc..) I don't think all these doctors are discredited and have no merit.

And what exactly is the data or evidence for a herd immunity strategy?

Ezekiel posted a PNAS article in the post of his you just quoted where they built a model to test herd immunity, and it says “Our study simulating SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United Kingdom finds that achieving herd immunity without overwhelming hospital capacity leaves little room for error. Intervention levels must be carefully manipulated in an adaptive manner for an extended period, despite acute sensitivity to poorly quantified epidemiological factors. Such fine-tuning of social distancing renders this strategy impractical.”

The Lancet article I’ve posted is extensively referenced and points out that selective isolation is practically impossible (nursing home residents aren’t exactly prancing around town and yet they were getting heavily infected even after nursing home workers started getting access to PPE). Even if totally isolating old and sick people was ethical, it’s just not feasible
 
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And what exactly is the data or evidence for a herd immunity strategy?

Ezekiel posted a PNAS article in the post of his you just quoted where they built a model to test herd immunity, and it says “Our study simulating SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United Kingdom finds that achieving herd immunity without overwhelming hospital capacity leaves little room for error. Intervention levels must be carefully manipulated in an adaptive manner for an extended period, despite acute sensitivity to poorly quantified epidemiological factors. Such fine-tuning of social distancing renders this strategy impractical.”

The Lancet article I’ve posted is extensively referenced and points out that selective isolation is practically impossible (nursing home residents aren’t exactly prancing around town and yet they were getting heavily infected even after nursing home workers started getting access to PPE). Even if totally isolating old and sick people was ethical, it’s just not feasible

Sweden appears to be the only working case of this strategy and I don't know why pointing to it causes so much dissent. I just think we need to focus on the damage being done with lockdowns with a stronger fortitude than we are now. I also feel like the mistakes from nursing homes have been largely corrected and the rapid spread and high amount of deaths has dramatically decreased for the most part. Sending covid+ patients to nursing home had more dire consequences for the residents there than the health care workers giving it to them while wearing PPE, if I am totally wrong about that I would love to see the data.
 
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Here’s how you know the Great Barrington idiots are full of it and why this is all BS. If you support it so much, where’s the plan to actually make it work?

Where’s the administration’s plan to seek out and identify the vulnerable? Where’s the mass production of N95’s and other PPE to protect them? Where’s the plan to scale up all the support that will be needed for them?

There’s no plan or strategy in place at all. No efforts being made to execute a plan bc there is and has never been any plan at all. I mean, we’re almost a year into this thing.

That tells you this “declaration” isn’t being pursued at all. Lol. It’s pure rhetoric being used by them as an excuse for the incompetence. Political cover.

These ppl aren’t using this to put pressure on the administration to actually implement this strategy they claim to be so faithful to. Rather, they’re using it to excuse all of this administration’s failures. Absolutely mind boggling that some physicians are stupid enough to fall for this.
 
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Sweden appears to be the only working case of this strategy and I don't know why pointing to it causes so much dissent. I just think we need to focus on the damage being done with lockdowns with a stronger fortitude than we are now. I also feel like the mistakes from nursing homes have been largely corrected and the rapid spread and high amount of deaths has dramatically decreased for the most part. Sending covid+ patients to nursing home had more dire consequences for the residents there than the health care workers giving it to them while wearing PPE, if I am totally wrong about that I would love to see the data.

People are in nursing homes for a reason. Most of them have no where else to go. Where do you suggest they be sent?
 
People are in nursing homes for a reason. Most of them have no where else to go. Where do you suggest they be sent?

Are you suggesting that covid+ seniors should still be moved back into nursing homes? We have had make shift hospitals built quickly that were empty while this was happening. That does not seem to be a problem that is too large by just saying they have no where else to go. Policies are already in place to not send them back when they are covid+.
 
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Was sent this by a friend not sure what my thought is yet seems to be similar to the WHO condemning lockdowns this week. Started by Harvard, Stanford and Oxford professors/doctors and signed by thousands of healthcare professionals and other people. Since obviously SDN anesthesia has the wisest folks just wanted to hear some thoughts that hopefully doesn't spiral into Orange man bad talk.

My Opinion:

This is eventually going to happen. Like all things with the pandemic its a matter of timing..

Sometime soon, its only natural that the less vulnerable are going to be losing the restrictions like masks/distancing before the elderly and more vulnerable

Hopefully sometime this year or next year, we will have a return to normalcy for those who want it, and the old and vulnerable will be on their own to hunker down, stay in, and stay protected until it passes.. we can't go through this forever.. let the nursing homes become fort knox, let grandma REALLY quarantine for a while and not see the kids - life has to go on at some point

Do I think now is the time? No. I would get through the winter and re-evaluate.. If the winter results in NYC and surrounding areas (me) peaking like last time and ICUs are full and deaths are hundreds per day - nope. But I think its going to be better this year. And I think the young and vital will eventually say enough - i'm coming out of the booth (random reference)
 
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Sweden appears to be the only working case of this strategy and I don't know why pointing to it causes so much dissent. I just think we need to focus on the damage being done with lockdowns with a stronger fortitude than we are now. I also feel like the mistakes from nursing homes have been largely corrected and the rapid spread and high amount of deaths has dramatically decreased for the most part. Sending covid+ patients to nursing home had more dire consequences for the residents there than the health care workers giving it to them while wearing PPE, if I am totally wrong about that I would love to see the data.

Didn’t Sweden try for herd immunity and have like a significantly higher death rate than the rest of Europe?

Edit:

The Swedish COVID-19 Response Is a Disaster. It Shouldn’t Be A Model for the Rest of the World

COVID-19 and Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries
 
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My Opinion:

This is eventually going to happen. Like all things with the pandemic its a matter of timing..

Sometime soon, its only natural that the less vulnerable are going to be losing the restrictions like masks/distancing before the elderly and more vulnerable

Hopefully sometime this year or next year, we will have a return to normalcy for those who want it, and the old and vulnerable will be on their own to hunker down, stay in, and stay protected until it passes.. we can't go through this forever.. let the nursing homes become fort knox, let grandma REALLY quarantine for a while and not see the kids - life has to go on at some point

Do I think now is the time? No. I would get through the winter and re-evaluate.. If the winter results in NYC and surrounding areas (me) peaking like last time and ICUs are full and deaths are hundreds per day - nope. But I think its going to be better this year. And I think the young and vital will eventually say enough - i'm coming out of the booth (random reference)
Refreshing take. It seems like the major power players are ready to move past the covid-19 era, as evidenced by this document and the recent WHO about-face on lockdown policies.
 
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Was sent this by a friend not sure what my thought is yet seems to be similar to the WHO condemning lockdowns this week. Started by Harvard, Stanford and Oxford professors/doctors and signed by thousands of healthcare professionals and other people. Since obviously SDN anesthesia has the wisest folks just wanted to hear some thoughts that hopefully doesn't spiral into Orange man bad talk.
The WHO never condemned lockdowns

 
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Like all things in life, it's a trade off. At this point in the US we are beyond a blanket lockdown unless needed to get regional case volumes down in an area that is threatening to overwhelm hospitals. Rushing to herd immunity like this suggests is *****ic (edit, apparently we can't say m o r o n i c), as we can't protect our vulnerable populations if everyone is infected. The best option in a bad situation, IMO, is continuing efforts to balance mitigation and economic impact, though with the caveat that I am strongly in favor of schools reopening (with mask use and other precautions). Wear masks. Outdoor dining. limited mass gatherings. These definitely have an economic impact, but much less then a lockdown does. Then hopefully in 3-6 months we have a workable vaccine and (even if partly effective) can reassess the risks/benefits continuum.
 
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Of course Sweden’s numbers are going to look worse at this point in the game. That’s because they did the least to flatten the curve. You can’t really compare things until COVID has really run it’s course the world over. Then we can see if Sweden really did screw the pooch, or if they just got the bulk of their deaths out of the way in few months, instead of dragging it out over a few years.
 
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Of course Sweden’s numbers are going to look worse at this point in the game. That’s because they did the least to flatten the curve. You can’t really compare things until COVID has really run it’s course the world over. Then we can see if Sweden really did screw the pooch, or if they just got the bulk of their deaths out of the way in few months, instead of dragging it out over a few years.

I mean I’m not discounting the possibility that maybe it’ll come out that they did the best thing, but given what is seen in some places that did short, aggressive lockdowns followed by measured reopening, it sure seems like they made the wrong call and caused a lot of unnecessary deaths.
 
Are you suggesting that covid+ seniors should still be moved back into nursing homes? We have had make shift hospitals built quickly that were empty while this was happening. That does not seem to be a problem that is too large by just saying they have no where else to go. Policies are already in place to not send them back when they are covid+.

Enlighten me. When an elderly person from a nursing home is discharged from the hospital after a diagnosis of COVID, where do they go? I know personally of long term ICU players who were discharged to nursing homes.
 
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Sweden has a high death rate but not the worst in Europe. They are the worst among Scandinavian countries which suffered both low deaths and low economic impact.

BBAE5BC9-B00D-4E47-AA1B-1F52FA20A532.jpeg
 
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History repeating itself a century later. Suppression was never really done during the first round of covid (hence why we are essentially in an endemic plateau with ~750-1000 deaths per day) and there is just no political or economic will to do what needs to be done if we get a massive spike this fall. Best hope for normality is a vaccine that works and that everyone takes.
 
Are you suggesting that covid+ seniors should still be moved back into nursing homes? We have had make shift hospitals built quickly that were empty while this was happening. That does not seem to be a problem that is too large by just saying they have no where else to go. Policies are already in place to not send them back when they are covid+.

Beyond the shuffling around of covid+ seniors, my point is that the old and sick cannot be truly isolated from the young. Old and sick people require care from young people. You cant tell young people that they should go maskless and live their lives and go to superspreader events and expect that there will be no transmission to the vulnerable.
 
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Vulnerable people have to protect themselves and life has to get back on track for the rest.
The opening and closing shuffle we are doing in Europe does not make any sense.
Fwiw i know of exactly 0 contaminations from infected patient to OR workers with people using regular surgical masks.
 
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You cant tell young people that they should go maskless and live their lives and go to superspreader events and expect that there will be no transmission to the vulnerable
I believe an asymptomatic person caring for a vulnerable person with both of them wearing facemasks carries an infinitely small risk of contamination.
 
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Of course Sweden’s numbers are going to look worse at this point in the game. That’s because they did the least to flatten the curve. You can’t really compare things until COVID has really run it’s course the world over. Then we can see if Sweden really did screw the pooch, or if they just got the bulk of their deaths out of the way in few months, instead of dragging it out over a few years.
There's a good chance that we'll have a vaccine sometime next spring or summer. We'll see who fared best overall at that point
 
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Enlighten me. When an elderly person from a nursing home is discharged from the hospital after a diagnosis of COVID, where do they go? I know personally of long term ICU players who were discharged to nursing homes.

were they still COVID positive and potentially infectious? I know plenty that recovered enough to leave the icu and were technically past the Period of likely spreading it. If they were long term players highly unlikely theyd be spreading it. The NY disaster was actively sick people moving to nursing homes.
 
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Enlighten me. When an elderly person from a nursing home is discharged from the hospital after a diagnosis of COVID, where do they go? I know personally of long term ICU players who were discharged to nursing homes.

Current recommendations are that severe Covid cases no longer require isolation after 20 days.


“Updated September 10,

I was severely ill with COVID-19 or have a severely weakened immune system (immunocompromised) due to a health condition or medication. When can I be around others?
People who are severely ill with COVID-19 might need to stay home longer than 10 days and up to 20 days after symptoms first appeared. Persons who are severely immunocompromised may require testing to determine when they can be around others. Talk to your healthcare provider for more information. If testing is available in your community, it may be recommended by your healthcare provider. Your healthcare provider will let you know if you can resume being around other people based on the results of your testing.

Your doctor may work with an infectious disease expert or your local health department to determine whether testing will be necessary before you can be around others.”

 
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Beyond the shuffling around of covid+ seniors, my point is that the old and sick cannot be truly isolated from the young. Old and sick people require care from young people. You cant tell young people that they should go maskless and live their lives and go to superspreader events and expect that there will be no transmission to the vulnerable.

This argument suggests masks and ppe aren't as effective as we believe them to be then. Old and sick must be protected with caregivers wearing ppe and safely caring for them while the younger/healthy population must for social/economic/mental health reasons, go back to society. We all want the same thing here and I don't think the fauci/collins solution is the 100% right answer that is all.
 
This argument suggests masks and ppe aren't as effective as we believe them to be then. Old and sick must be protected with caregivers wearing ppe and safely caring for them while the younger/healthy population must for social/economic/mental health reasons, go back to society. We all want the same thing here and I don't think the fauci/collins solution is the 100% right answer that is all.

Caregivers not getting covid is the best way for caregivers to care for the elderly and sick. As the quote I already posted points out:

"He asked, "how would you keep the virus out if 10 percent of the younger population is infected at peak prevalence and with tests that cannot keep the virus out of the White House?"[20] He called the declaration "quite dangerous, for multiple reasons", explaining that "if you do this, you’ll get more infections, more hospitalizations and more deaths" and that "the greatest risk of introduction to the most vulnerable communities will be when the rate of infection is really high in younger age groups.""

You can't sponsor the idea of herd immunity and believe that isolation of the old and elderly is really possible, no matter whether you try to promote the idea of strict PPE. It's just statistically a very unlikely outcome.
 
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Caregivers not getting covid is the best way for caregivers to care for the elderly and sick. As the quote I already posted points out:

"He asked, "how would you keep the virus out if 10 percent of the younger population is infected at peak prevalence and with tests that cannot keep the virus out of the White House?"[20] He called the declaration "quite dangerous, for multiple reasons", explaining that "if you do this, you’ll get more infections, more hospitalizations and more deaths" and that "the greatest risk of introduction to the most vulnerable communities will be when the rate of infection is really high in younger age groups.""

You can't sponsor the idea of herd immunity and believe that isolation of the old and elderly is really possible, no matter whether you try to promote the idea of strict PPE. It's just statistically a very unlikely outcome.

It’s hyperbole and dishonest to think anyone is advocating high risk individuals or nursing homes follow the White House as a model.
 
You can't sponsor the idea of herd immunity and believe that isolation of the old and elderly is really possible, no matter whether you try to promote the idea of strict PPE.
I'm not sponsoring herd immunity i'm saying that people at low risk of a severe disease should resume a normal life and people at higher risk should be treat as such.
Btw PPE or N95 are unnecessary.
 
I'm not sponsoring herd immunity i'm saying that people at low risk of a severe disease should resume a normal life and people at higher risk should be treat as such.
Btw PPE or N95 are unnecessary.

Aren't you basically advocating Sweden? We have evidence of how it has worked out for them relative to other countries in proximity. @nimbus pointed it out up there.

Also, the idea that you can just separate populations 'okay, you low riskers go live your lives and you high riskers go protect yourselves. ready, GO!' with no intermingling or no spread between the two populations only underscores a lack of knowledge of, historically, how easily and widely spread very transmissible viruses are.

and while you personally know of no cases where a healthcare worker presumably got COVID from a patient while wearing a mask, that exact situation has occurred in the US for both nurses and physicians who later died.
 
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It’s hyperbole and dishonest to think anyone is advocating high risk individuals or nursing homes follow the White House as a model.
I'm not sponsoring herd immunity i'm saying that people at low risk of a severe disease should resume a normal life and people at higher risk should be treat as such.
Btw PPE or N95 are unnecessary.

Gaseous started this thread and posted a link to the GB declaration, which says

"
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection. "

Which is actually a strategy that eventually becomes a hundred times worse than what was undertaken at the WH.

Again, low risk people going about their business to the point of a high basal infection rate and expecting to successfully keep all elderly and sick people in such an isolated bubble that low risk people infectivity doesn't slip into their population is statistically very unlikely.
 
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Caregivers not getting covid is the best way for caregivers to care for the elderly and sick. As the quote I already posted points out:

"He asked, "how would you keep the virus out if 10 percent of the younger population is infected at peak prevalence and with tests that cannot keep the virus out of the White House?"[20] He called the declaration "quite dangerous, for multiple reasons", explaining that "if you do this, you’ll get more infections, more hospitalizations and more deaths" and that "the greatest risk of introduction to the most vulnerable communities will be when the rate of infection is really high in younger age groups.""

You can't sponsor the idea of herd immunity and believe that isolation of the old and elderly is really possible, no matter whether you try to promote the idea of strict PPE. It's just statistically a very unlikely outcome.

I think there is a contingent of people who, at some point, would prefer some degree of elderly deaths to the continued economic devastation.

To what extent will we continue to give up our livelihoods to save the vulnerable?

Young people cant go to bars? Im OK with that.

My son cant learn to read? Not really OK with it.

I am going to lose my house? Absolutely not, sorry grandma you need to stay home and be very cautious for a while.

Keep in mind we have it good as physicians in our little safe bubble of affluence.

I think its critical to realize that this is a balance and a two-sided issue.

Of course we dont want millions of deaths..

But the overall goal is not to minimize elderly deaths to the extremus, while younger generations are set back (economically, educationally, culturally) beyond repair
 
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I think there is a contingent of people who, at some point, would prefer some degree of elderly deaths to the continued economic devastation.

To what extent will we continue to give up our livelihoods to save the vulnerable?

Young people cant go to bars? Im OK with that.

My son cant learn to read? Not really OK with it.

I am going to lose my house? Absolutely not, sorry grandma.

Keep in mind we have it good as physicians in our little safe bubble of affluence.

I'm all for easing of some restrictions as the local infection rate allows and letting people get back to school and work as soon as is safely possible. I'm only replying to this thread to disabuse people of the idiotic notion of herd immunity that the GBD is trying to propagate.
 
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I'm all for easing of some restrictions as the local infection rate allows and letting people get back to school and work as soon as is safely possible. I'm only replying to this thread to disabuse people of the idiotic notion of herd immunity that the GBD is trying to propagate.

Scenario A: you and your wife are in your 30s with 5 and 6 year olds at home. Both parents are laid off. Rent has been due for months as are other bills. It’s been 8 months since you’ve worked or been allowed to see your grandparent neighbors cause you follow the rules.

Scenario B: Your kids go to school. You go to work. Restaurants. You, your wife, and your kids all get it. Get tested. 10 days later you’re no longer infectious. Everyone’s fine cause that’s how it works. You can go see grandma again. She’ll continue to stay home but at least she doesn’t have to die of loneliness.

What am i missing? Is this scalable with personal accountability? Probably to an extent yes.

A year or two from now someone will likely be proven right. I know enough about medicine to know it’s not always going to be me.

For all the talk about privilege on this board, there seems to be a lot of selective ignorance about being in a priveleged financially stable point in your life here. Some of you guys act like your kids are never going to read if they miss a few months of second grade which straight up is not true. Yet you’re fine with vilifying any social activity between people without families right now. At some point we have to get on with our lives.


Where’s the administration’s plan to seek out and identify the vulnerable? Where’s the mass production of N95’s and other PPE to protect them? Where’s the plan to scale up all the support that will be needed for them?

Please stop spewing nonsense about how theres no plan to identify those at risk. You act like people don’t know they’re old fat or on chemotherapy. I doubt I’m the only one working somewhere that we can’t even keep patients admitted to the hospital wearing their masks let alone the fantasy of forcing them all to where n95s.
 
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I think there is a contingent of people who, at some point, would prefer some degree of elderly deaths to the continued economic devastation.

To what extent will we continue to give up our livelihoods to save the vulnerable?

Young people cant go to bars? Im OK with that.

My son cant learn to read? Not really OK with it.

I am going to lose my house? Absolutely not, sorry grandma you need to stay home and be very cautious for a while.

Keep in mind we have it good as physicians in our little safe bubble of affluence.

I think its critical to realize that this is a balance and a two-sided issue.

Of course we dont want millions of deaths..

But the overall goal is not to minimize elderly deaths to the extremus, while younger generations are set back (economically, educationally, culturally) beyond repair

We cannot sacrifice the young, healthy, and those with a long future at the expense of the old, infirm, and those with a limited shelf life. Unpopular opinion, but every life has a price. This has been debated at nauseum and insurance companies have formulas for calculating that price and this is an accepted theory. At some point survival of the fittest has to play out, whatever the consequences may be. I empathize with the old, immunocompromised, and sickly. They do not, however, take precedence over the youth (0-26yr old) who suffer the most long term from lockdowns and other steep containment strategies. The future of the society and the world has and always be the youth, and decisions must be made based on what is best for them.
 
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We cannot sacrifice the young, healthy, and those with a long future at the expense of the old, infirm, and those with a limited shelf life. Unpopular opinion, but every life has a price. This has been debated at nauseum and insurance companies have formulas for calculating that price and this is an accepted theory. At some point survival of the fittest has to play out, whatever the consequences may be. I empathize with the old, immunocompromised, and sickly. They do not, however, take precedence over the youth (0-26yr old) who suffer the most long term from lockdowns and other steep containment strategies. The future of the society and the world has and always be the youth, and decisions must be made based on what is best for them.

Limited shelf life? Every life has a price? Interesting statements for the 'pro-life' party.
 
Please stop spewing nonsense about how theres no plan to identify those at risk. You act like people don’t know they’re old fat or on chemotherapy. I doubt I’m the only one working somewhere that we can’t even keep patients admitted to the hospital wearing their masks let alone the fantasy of forcing them all to where n95s.

Self-realization, whether there or not (and we as physicians should be the first to say that patients often have NO insight into their disease state), is irrelevant to a federal response. There was a no federal response. At least Sweden had the cajones to differentiate themselves, admit to it, and accept that perhaps maybe it wasn't the best thing to do in the end. We screwed the pooch and our president keeps saying he rescued the whole country.
 
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We cannot sacrifice the young, healthy, and those with a long future at the expense of the old, infirm, and those with a limited shelf life. Unpopular opinion, but every life has a price. This has been debated at nauseum and insurance companies have formulas for calculating that price and this is an accepted theory. At some point survival of the fittest has to play out, whatever the consequences may be. I empathize with the old, immunocompromised, and sickly. They do not, however, take precedence over the youth (0-26yr old) who suffer the most long term from lockdowns and other steep containment strategies. The future of the society and the world has and always be the youth, and decisions must be made based on what is best for them.

In reality, we make decisions based on what is best for adults and the elderly. Kids don’t have much of a lobby. In fact when I hear parents wanting to reopen schools, they are more often complaining about having trouble finding childcare or the cost of childcare, not about academics. That is an issue for the grownups, it’s not about the kids.
 
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