If we were to wander over to the medical side of SDN, this specialization discussion seems to be very similar to pre-meds attempting to read match lists, with those farther along in the training pathway trying to tell them that match lists don't really say anything meaningful for incoming medical students or applicants.
Here's one example:
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/thr...ve-specialty-residency.1179264/#post-17324214
Basically, looking at match lists, we don't know if the top students always wanted to go into the less competitive, primary care programs that are in areas near their social support systems, or in their dream cities, even if they are in middle of nowhere, USA. Thus, those top students "seem" less competitive, but it is only because we aren't aware of their motivations.
In addition, if you go to a school that sends a few residents to the specialty program you are hoping for in previous years, but they then perform poorly in that specialty program, the program director may be less likely to admit you due to the recent negative track record of residents from your dental school. This further complicates the ability to "read" specialty statistics, as there is the potential for wide variation each year, both on the dental school side, and the specialty program side.
From the 2016 survey of medical residency program directors, only 56% cite "Graduate of highly‐regarded U.S. medical school" as a "Factor in Selecting Applicants to Interview," and those that do, do not rank it particularly highly compared to the only factors cited:
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/NRMP-2016-Program-Director-Survey.pdf
(Pg. 3)
That low rating seems to be consistent across these surveys, which I believe are released annually.
In addition, as we can also see from the medical forums, many pass/fail medical schools have systems of grading that still rank students. Even without a formal ranking, residency programs seem to often get a letter of evaluation from a school's dean for each student, which apparently comes with a key explaining what the adjectives used in the dean's letter correspond to in terms of student performance and relative class rank:
Here's one example of a thread discussing this:
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/list-of-pass-fail-m-d-schools.1175838/#post-17257506
So even the schools that seem truly pass/fail may not actually be what we think they are.
Thus, trying to interpret this very intangible evidence seems to be very unlikely to yield meaningful results when it comes to our trajectory after dental school.
However, if anyone is able to find more concrete evidence, as Cello mentioned, that might help in making a more informed decision about school choice and specialization. Until then, however, a lot of what we are doing when judging a dental school in terms of its potential for specialization might just be hand waving.
I hope that helps.
