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I can give you an IMGs (visa requiring) perspective who is applying for fellowship this year
Yes it does matter which program you come from (unless you are the type who did 2 years of research before residency)
That to say not all community program are same . I know few excellent community programs ( einstien philly, Washington hospital center , allegheny general ) whose residents do excellent in fellowship matches
It also depends on what you want . GI is tough work even for Lower tier university applicants . Cards/Pulm Crit/ haem onc/rheum are doable from a community hospital but you will have to shoot for community / lower tier university programs and need to have decent research . Endo is easier to get into with majority applicant IMG . Nephro/ID you don't need to even apply as the positions go unfilled
Research and research opportunities are key to landing quality fellowship positions, even for AMGs. Most university programs are academic and have ongoing research in many fields which makes it easier to get involved as a resident. Community programs often do not, which is obviously a barrier to involvement.