Matrix - Game Thread

[Stagg737]

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What, because I'm alive?

 

[Clem J]

Well hi Clem. How much had you been reading to catch the claim that quickly

Barely anything lol, it was right above where I popped back in

 

[Clem J]

Did you breadcrumb this at all?

Wolfy pop in

 

[Clem J]

vote  moonstermash

maybe if we hammer i wont get in trouble for not reaching post min 😬

 

[Santygrass]

vote  moonstermash

maybe if we hammer i wont get in trouble for not reaching post min 😬

I beg of thee . Please explain what the logic is behind that killing the claim D1 is optimal

 

[samac]

Vote Moon

Until further evidence/discussion I'm not convinced about their town doc claim. I think they were caught and needed something fairly convincing to claim. The point that wolves could also likely determine which row/column is in play gives them an advantage on fake-claiming.

What do you think the wolf thought process was?

 

[Santygrass]

I beg of thee . Please explain what the logic is behind that killing the claim D1 is optimal

And what happened after you posted and then dipped off thread

 

[Clem J]

I beg of thee . Please explain what the logic is behind that killing the claim D1 is optimal

I mean it's just pure math right

And I haven't really read enough to make an informed decision based on thread context or whatever, so math is my friend

 

[Clem J]

And what happened after you posted and then dipped off thread

Idk what happened I wasn't here and haven't read it lol

 

[samac]

I can’t help but think about the kill target. Someone new to the site who didn’t leave a big splash.
I wasn’t wolf reading dubz or Zenges but I don’t think they’d do that just of note.

 

[samac]

I mean it's just pure math right

And I haven't really read enough to make an informed decision based on thread context or whatever, so math is my friend

Pure math = kill the Pr claim? Explain pls

 

[samac]

I want to give shot gun reads because sometimes that helps me

1. @Clem J - scum
2. @Santygrass - village
4. @potentialsheltervet - scum
5. @moonstermash - village
6. @samac
7. @holdthemayo - village
8. @Zenge142 - village
9. @genny - village
10. @WildZoo - village
11. @Stagg737 - scum
12. @ShinichiMD - scum
13. @Gikkle - village
14. @Achromatic - village

My scum side is too narrow.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Day 2 Yeet Tally
Shini (1) - Zenge 8
Clem () -
Achro (1) - Santy 31
Stagg (1) - Dubz 4
moon (2) - Stagg 6, Clem 5

5/13
yeet close in ~32 hours

 

[Clem J]

Pure math = kill the Pr claim? Explain pls

We have 9 VT, 3 town PR, 3 mafia

This is on the assumption that a VT won't claim PR to save themselves, which with most people is a safe assumption

So a PR claim at EOD is about 50% to be a town PR or a mafia (this is also on the assumption that any mafia would fake claim to save themselves, which they usually should), which is a way above rand chance to hit mafia

You can get the math more granular but I personally cannot lol

Yes this does ignore thread context or whatever, it's not something you should blindly follow, yada yada

 

[Clem J]

It's also an important note for me personally that I don't  usually care that much about the chance of killing PRs if I also think it's a higher chance to kill mafia

 

[WildZoo]

The point that wolves could also likely determine which row/column is in play gives them an advantage on fake-claiming.

That's...not completely accurate is it? Like there's overlap between setups. They could determine after a town PR flip.

Meh I'll go back and look at moon claim timing but like...coming in and only talking about yeeting the PR claim is a little for you and Clem (but probably not both)

 

[Clem J]

I can’t help but think about the kill target. Someone new to the site who didn’t leave a big splash.
I wasn’t wolf reading dubz or Zenges but I don’t think they’d do that just of note.

Idk about zenge but pretty sure dubz would lol

 

[Clem J]

That's...not completely accurate is it? Like there's overlap between setups. They could determine after a town PR flip.

Meh I'll go back and look at moon claim timing but like...coming in and only talking about yeeting the PR claim is a little for you and Clem (but probably not both)

Tbf I also gave a troll-y response to someone asking for my reads

I'm also correct but

 

[Santygrass]

We have 9 VT, 3 town PR, 3 mafia

This is on the assumption that a VT won't claim PR to save themselves, which with most people is a safe assumption

So a PR claim at EOD is about 50% to be a town PR or a mafia (this is also on the assumption that any mafia would fake claim to save themselves, which they usually should), which is a way above rand chance to hit mafia

You can get the math more granular but I personally cannot lol

Yes this does ignore thread context or whatever, it's not something you should blindly follow, yada yada

Math is mathin' yeah

 

[Santygrass]

That's...not completely accurate is it? Like there's overlap between setups. They could determine after a town PR flip.

Meh I'll go back and look at moon claim timing but like...coming in and only talking about yeeting the PR claim is a little for you and Clem (but probably not both)

I think scum always know on what setup they are because of the roles they have. So thats how they know which town pr are present and which are not

 

[Santygrass]

I did a 180' on clem and I think they are village.

I was having Skill Issue before

 

[WildZoo]

Tbf I also gave a troll-y response to someone asking for my reads

I'm also correct but

In my current universe you're probably village and w!Stagg is following along with your thoughts for a free shot at a village PR

 

[Clem J]

That's...not completely accurate is it? Like there's overlap between setups. They could determine after a town PR flip.

Meh I'll go back and look at moon claim timing but like...coming in and only talking about yeeting the PR claim is a little for you and Clem (but probably not both)

Also I agree that Stagg isn't really thinking about it right, "an advantage on fake claiming" just isn't really a thing that matters for a d1 mafia claim, the point is usually to draw out a claim of any type and/or survive because town PRs don't want to claim, you absolutely don't have to make an accurate fake claim for that

Which, btw, if you're a town PR and know that doctor can't exist in the setup, you should absolutely claim that, that's a trade worth making every time.

 

[samac]

Mods: @Animal Midwife, @kaydubs, and @supershorty
SOD/EOD: 10 AM/PM EDT
Cycle Length: 36/12
Yeeting: Majority starts Day 2. It will activate 12 hours into every cycle. Ties are resolved with one candidate dying by RNG. No Yeet is allowed.
Killing: Mandatory for mafia.
Posting: Thread is locked at Night.
YoLo: Yeets are locked and cannot be changed for any reason.
Minimum: 40 posts per Day. Naked yeets don't count.
Maximum: 125 posts per Day. Will be lifted 1 hour before EOD.

Matrix Mayhem​

	A​	B​	C​	D​	E​
1	Town 3x Tracker​	Mafia 2x Tracker​	Town Motion Detector​	Town Odd Night Doctor​	Mafia Blocker​
2	Mafia 2x Watcher​	Town 3x Tracker​	Town Inventor​	Mafia Blocker​	Town Odd Night Doctor​
3	Town JOAT​	Mafia Blocker​	Town Even Night Jailkeeper​	Town Motion Detector​	Mafia Odd Night Role Cop​
4	Mafia Blocker​	Town Inventor​	Mafia Goon​	Town 3x Blocker​	Town Even Night Jailkeeper​
5	Town Odd Night Doctor​	Town 3x Blocker​	Mafia Blocker​	Mafia Goon​	Town JOAT​

One row or column is randomly selected then rounded out with 9 Vanilla Townies and a Mafia Goon.

Town Inventor has 1x Track and 1x Block.
Town JOAT has 1x Track, 1x Doctor, and 1x Block.

The following roles are non-consecutive (cannot target the same player two Nights in a row): Town 3x Blocker, Town Inventor, and Mafia Blocker.

The following roles are disabled in endgame (deactivated when only one Mafia is alive): Town 3x Blocker and Town 3x Tracker.

Mafia flips will only reveal the affiliation of the Mafia player, whereas Town flips will reveal the full role of the Town player.

Spoiler: PR definitions

Blocker: Prevents the target from using their actions.
Doctor: Protects the target from kills.
Inventor: Gives the target an ability to use on a future Night.
Jailkeeper: Protects the target from kills and prevents them from using their actions.
Motion Detector: Sees if the target has visited someone or if the target has been visited by someone.
Role Cop: Sees what ability the target has.
Tracker: Sees who the target visited.
Watcher: Sees who visited the target.

Self-targeting is not allowed.
If an X-shot ability is blocked or jailed while being used, the shot is lost forever.
If blocking and jailing abilities target each other, the block will go through whereas the jail will not.

Rules
1. No editing for any reason. Bold or ##sharp sign## (or ♭ ♭ flat sign ♭ ♭ to trigger me) your votes. e.g. Yeet AM
2. No quoting, copypasting, or otherwise duplicating mod messages from role PMs. Use paraphrasing.
3. No screenshots.
4. No asking for subs on thread. Use your role PM instead.
5. Dead cannot post in game thread.
6. Spectators cannot post in game thread.

Roster
1. @Clem J
2. @Santygrass
3. @mkg323
4. @potentialsheltervet
5. @moonstermash
6. @samac
7. @holdthemayo
8. @Zenge142
9. @genny
10. @WildZoo
11. @Stagg737
12. @ShinichiMD
13. @Gikkle
14. @Achromatic
15. @Spacecamp

I think scum always know on what setup they are because of the roles they have. So thats how they know which town pr are present and which are not

I don’t know why my brain is trying so hard to work this but it is but not exactly. They can narrow it down much more than VTs but there’s overlap between columns and rows. Like if we landed B from what they know it could also be 1

 

[WildZoo]

I think scum always know on what setup they are because of the roles they have. So thats how they know which town pr are present and which are not

No?

Am I looking at the chart wrong? Like they could have watcher and blocker and we'd either be in setup A or 2, which have different town PRs. T

 

[Clem J]

In my current universe you're probably village and w!Stagg is following along with your thoughts for a free shot at a village PR

Meh they could also be town, don't think many mafia want to kill outside a doc claim, but I have to reread the matrix at some point and see if that's actually true lol

 

[WildZoo]

I don’t know why my brain is trying so hard to work this but it is but not exactly. They can narrow it down much more than VTs but there’s overlap between columns and rows. Like if we landed B from what they know it could also be 1

No?

Am I looking at the chart wrong? Like they could have watcher and blocker and we'd either be in setup A or 2, which have different town PRs.

Oho towny mindmeld

 

[samac]

Also I agree that Stagg isn't really thinking about it right, "an advantage on fake claiming" just isn't really a thing that matters for a d1 mafia claim, the point is usually to draw out a claim of any type and/or survive because town PRs don't want to claim, you absolutely don't have to make an accurate fake claim for that

Which, btw, if you're a town PR and know that doctor can't exist in the setup, you should absolutely claim that, that's a trade worth making every time.

I was looking at that but I think there is not a way for one town to know we’re not in a set up with a doctor. Each individual roll can be a set up with a doctor.

 

[Clem J]

Samac and dubz are correct, mafia have a better idea but aren't sure which setup we're in

 

[Santygrass]

Yeah you both are right . Maybe I mixed that up with another chart setup of this type.

Skill Issue moment

 

[Clem J]

I was looking at that but I think there is not a way for one town to know we’re not in a set up with a doctor. Each individual roll can be a set up with a doctor.

Yeh I have to look at the matrix again lol

 

[samac]

Yeh I have to look at the matrix again lol

I’d already been deep trying to figure it out.

 

[WildZoo]

I hate looking at the matrix, it makes my head hurt

 

[samac]

Dubz and I are blocc’d I shall not be rescinding

 

[samac]

Yeah, this game isn’t solvable just by the grid. Too much overlap.

 

[Clem J]

I  think depending on mafia roles they might know what setup we're in if moon is town, but its definitely not for sure

Idk I'm going back to ignoring the matrix it doesn't matter until mid to late game

 

[samac]

I want to give shot gun reads because sometimes that helps me

1. @Clem J - scum
2. @Santygrass - village
4. @potentialsheltervet - scum
5. @moonstermash - village
6. @samac
7. @holdthemayo - village
8. @Zenge142 - village
9. @genny - village
10. @WildZoo - village
11. @Stagg737 - scum
12. @ShinichiMD - scum
13. @Gikkle - village
14. @Achromatic - village

My scum side is too narrow.

Can I get peoples thoughts on this? Agreements/disagreements
I feel a little stuck

 

[samac]

I  think depending on mafia roles they might know what setup we're in if moon is town, but its definitely not for sure

Idk I'm going back to ignoring the matrix it doesn't matter until mid to late game

No. 2 and A have the same mafia + doc

 

[Santygrass]

Can I get peoples thoughts on this? Agreements/disagreements
I feel a little stuck

Disagree on Clem, moon , waver on psv gth I think they still town, achro.

Gikkle we should revisit. Also Shinichi .
Stagg gth I would also say more likely scum but not confident on it

 

[WildZoo]

Dubz and I are blocc’d I shall not be rescinding

I'm tentatively still good with Santy and genny though the weird kill gave me a hint of genny PTSD. I am ignoring it for the moment.

I need to reread posts from our new guests, I have this terrible bias where I read the people I know and unfamiliars tend to blend together.

 

[Clem J]

Can I get peoples thoughts on this? Agreements/disagreements
I feel a little stuck

Disagree
Sure
Idk
Provisionally disagree
Cautiously agree
Idk
Idk
Idk
I want her to be
Weh
Kyle is probably not invested enough to be mafia but idk
Weh
Idk

 

[samac]

Disagree on Clem, moon , waver on psv gth I think they still town, achro.

Gikkle we should revisit. Also Shinichi .
Stagg gth I would also say more likely scum but not confident on it

With moon is it the not saying who they targeted when they came on thread?

 

[Clem J]

No. 2 and A have the same mafia + doc

We can argue about it and give each other headaches staring at matrix permutations in a few game days when it's relevant xD

 

[Santygrass]

With moon is it the not saying who they targeted when they came on thread?

Also the breadcrumbing not being real. And if they are mafia they always fakeclaim.

The nightkill not being them also a factor.

And like, claiming doctor doesnt make the reasons I sussed them from D1 go away

 

[samac]

If someone is a motion detector I’d like to know what you learned. It’s worth the share I think.

 

[samac]

Watch mayo be the doctor or some **** and just not here lol

 

[WildZoo]

I want to give shot gun reads because sometimes that helps me

1. @Clem J - scum
2. @Santygrass - village
4. @potentialsheltervet - scum
5. @moonstermash - village
6. @samac
7. @holdthemayo - village
8. @Zenge142 - village
9. @genny - village
10. @WildZoo - village
11. @Stagg737 - scum
12. @ShinichiMD - scum
13. @Gikkle - village
14. @Achromatic - village

My scum side is too narrow.

Sorry I missed this
Agree on Santy, moon, genny, and tentatively Zenge. Agree on Stagg, Clem is possible but I don't think partnered with Stagg, and PSV I need to see more from her.

I'm nowhere near comfortable with mayo lol is this a reading card read?

Currently revisiting Shinichi, Gikkle, and Achro

 

[WildZoo]

Watch mayo be the doctor or some **** and just not here lol

Omg that reminds me of a game a LONG time ago, Pokemon theme, my wolf pack was in huge trouble, and we did end up losing, but one of my packmates got away with an Ash claim for a day because Mel was the real Ash and he missed the claim. It was amazing

 

[samac]

Sorry I missed this
Agree on Santy, moon, genny, and tentatively Zenge. Agree on Stagg, Clem is possible but I don't think partnered with Stagg, and PSV I need to see more from her.

I'm nowhere near comfortable with mayo lol is this a reading card read?

Currently revisiting Shinichi, Gikkle, and Achro

I wanted to put everyone in one box or the other. It’s not a reading card read by any means, but just knowing mayo and I think he would try harder if he felt a wolf group was counting on hi

 

[WildZoo]

A moment to recognize that my entire view of the game is somewhat tilted by my belief in w!Stagg