Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

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valianteffort said:
Interesting to see that crypto has not taken the hit that you would expect with this market carnage. Could this is the unpairing of crypto vs asset backed equities?
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Either a) it's not as impacted because it has nothing to do with tariffs or perhaps b) in 2022 spx massively sold off while btc was steady...for a short time. Also over a weekend.

Hard to know.
 
JacobMcCandles said:
I don’t envy the non-buy and holders, especially now. You can use whatever reasoning behind your plays but when things are like how they are now (people behaving emotionally and irrationally) you’re just gambling. As they say, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Best of luck to you.
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Maybe. But my 401k is still up over 500% since 2022, even with eating some big losses this winter. Admittedly should have dumped rheinmetall but technically hasn't hit my stop.
 
It just keeps getting more and more red.

Jpowpow has to start the printer soon.
 
Porfirio said:
It just keeps getting more and more red.

Jpowpow has to start the printer soon.
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I don't think Jpow cares about the stock market.

Just like he doesn't care about the housing market.

As he shouldn't, TBH. The fed's dual mandate is maximal employment and price control. If you listen to him speak he is very non emotional and won't comment on anything political.

Furthermore, tariffs are pro inflationary, that is unless we go into a recession and no one has a job or any money to spend, then maybe demand goes down, and along with it, price.

QE will be counter to this objective. As are rate cuts, I don't see any rate cuts happening if these tariffs stick, in fact, there might be hikes.

I think we have one of two scenarios:

1) World capitulates to Trump (whatever that means) or enough to let Trump declare victory; tariffs lift, economy and market goes zoomies.

2) Tariffs stick. We hit recession around summer time. Labor market finally breaks. Trump gets the rate cuts that he's after.
 
WhatJobDoIPick said:
I don't think Jpow cares about the stock market.

Just like he doesn't care about the housing market.

As he shouldn't, TBH. The fed's dual mandate is maximal employment and price control. If you listen to him speak he is very non emotional and won't comment on anything political.

Furthermore, tariffs are pro inflationary, that is unless we go into a recession and no one has a job or any money to spend, then maybe demand goes down, and along with it, price.

QE will be counter to this objective. As are rate cuts, I don't see any rate cuts happening if these tariffs stick, in fact, there might be hikes.

I think we have one of two scenarios:

1) World capitulates to Trump (whatever that means) or enough to let Trump declare victory; tariffs lift, economy and market goes zoomies.

2) Tariffs stick. We hit recession around summer time. Labor market finally breaks. Trump gets the rate cuts that he's after.
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Agreed jpow is very level headed and not political. Though he will show the expected rate cuts in the future, which may have changed if we’re heading towards a recession.

I’m just curious how long before there’s enough disgruntlement in the GOP to finally challenge trump.

4800 spx is next, if that breaks then things are really rough
 
I have been dca AAPL for 4 yrs now (~450 shares) as my only individual long term stock and all my gains are gone.
 
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cyanide12345678 said:
Agreed jpow is very level headed and not political. Though he will show the expected rate cuts in the future, which may have changed if we’re heading towards a recession.

I’m just curious how long before there’s enough disgruntlement in the GOP to finally challenge trump.

4800 spx is next, if that breaks then things are really rough
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I have massive limit buys much lower than that just in case so I don't miss it
 
I feel like I am listening to a Bernie Sanders supporter.

 
the inevitable vix crush with more room for vix to drop as markets stabilize slightly.

160k of remaining premium - all strikes 30+ percent away from todays price. All positions are January or March leap positions.

Margin maintenance excess at 80k. Strong buffer for further drops.

Ytd down 11%, trailing sp500 but i feel really good about how low my strikes are.

Added 30,000 of VT when spx was at 5000.
 

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Groove said:
My account just went from -11% to 13% gain in a single day. I don't know how much more of this I can take. 2025 will be the death of me.
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Congratulations. Hell of a jump. I’ll eventually get there too.

I’m trying not to be greedy and raise strikes as the market goes up. Just keeping those really far away strikes and holding strong.
 
cyanide12345678 said:
Congratulations. Hell of a jump. I’ll eventually get there too.

I’m trying not to be greedy and raise strikes as the market goes up. Just keeping those really far away strikes and holding strong.
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To be clear, it was 13% jump but NOT 13% YTD. I think I'm still negative 0.3% YTD. My portfolio is ridiculous right now. It's embarrassing. If there's one thing I've learned during this is how irrational I can become during crazy volatility. Ichimoku and every aspect of my typical approach to positions goes out the window. I'm literally 100% in the following: NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, CCL, CLS, META, PYPL, TMUS, TWLO, UBER. That's it. Post market looks up another several percent. The problem is that the VIX hit 60 today. So, if I get positive YTD tomorrow, do I sell into cash until VIX drops or do I ride it out? I have no idea.
 
We just witnessed the greatest market manipulation event in history.

Get ready for 3.5 more years of this.

We are not in the group chat. Never sell. Always be buying.
 
TooMuchResearch said:
Weird 0DTE call activity before Trump posted "buy" on truth social today. Incredibly illegal activity. Multiples worse than Congress trading stocks impacted by committees they sit on.
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Trump should go to jail for the market manipulation. There is so much illegal shenanigans going on. That 0DTE spy calls were done literally 10 minutes before the announcement. 10K to 15M.
 
thegenius said:
Trump should go to jail for the market manipulation. There is so much illegal shenanigans going on. That 0DTE spy calls were done literally 10 minutes before the announcement. 10K to 15M.
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We have come to accept that Trump plays by a different set of rules.
 
thegenius said:
Trump should go to jail for the market manipulation. There is so much illegal shenanigans going on. That 0DTE spy calls were done literally 10 minutes before the announcement. 10K to 15M.
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Probably made some money on the way down too.

I wish i had insider information to when trump is going to tweet 🤣
 
Current portfolio is attached.

Set up to gain 157k by March 2026. Some positions are January, some March. Was set up to gain 261k by March until trump de-risked my portfolio with 1 tweet And the same positions have a lot less juice left.

All strike prices are at least 35% away from current price. Most are at least 40%+ downside protection, a few are as much as 50%+ downside protection.
 

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thegenius said:
Trump should go to jail for the market manipulation. There is so much illegal shenanigans going on. That 0DTE spy calls were done literally 10 minutes before the announcement. 10K to 15M.
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Follow Unusual Whales on Twitter. This type of thing happens all the time yet nobody ever gets investigated or jailed for it.
 
thegenius said:
Trump should go to jail for the market manipulation. There is so much illegal shenanigans going on. That 0DTE spy calls were done literally 10 minutes before the announcement. 10K to 15M.
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Did you forget? John Roberts explicitly said anything the President does is legal. This is all 100% kosher, as infuriating as that is.
 
I spent $20 on a few reddit calls yesterday because of the volatility of the market. It was for $130 strike expiring this Friday. I sold them for $560 dollars. This is insane.
 
WhatJobDoIPick said:
Does that make it actionable?
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I don’t subscribe so I couldn’t tell you. There can be a significant increase in activity for days leading up to big announcements with a variety of stocks. You’d see the activity but you wouldn’t know the why.
 
JacobMcCandles said:
They’ll post the action so they can’t post it until it happens. They’ll post publicly afterwards but I think you can subscribe and see everything in real time.
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There are a bunch of Unusual Options Activity platforms and apps out there. There is a general belief that following them does not lead to higher gains. Too many false signals.

Wouldn't have mattered anyway a day ago anyway. There are so many >= $1M blocks of contracts, both puts and calls, traded all the time you wouldn't know which one to follow. Moreover while some site try to group the trades coming in to spreads, that doesn't always work and then you get more false signals. Like it is highly unusual to see traders selling deep ITM short dated contracts, yet I see fintwit bozos say "oh man that is bullish right there" when in fact it's part of a spread or a convert.
 
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thegenius said:
There are a bunch of Unusual Options Activity platforms and apps out there. There is a general belief that following them does not lead to higher gains. Too many false signals.

Wouldn't have mattered anyway a day ago anyway. There are so many >= $1M blocks of contracts, both puts and calls, traded all the time you wouldn't know which one to follow. Moreover while some site try to group the trades coming in to spreads, that doesn't always work and then you get more false signals. Like it is highly unusual to see traders selling deep ITM short dated contracts, yet I see fintwit bozos say "oh man that is bullish right there" when in fact it's part of a spread or a convert.
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1M plus is too small.

With my naked puts, before i was so diversified, it was very normal for me to have positions worth 1M+. That’s too much noise when even my trades would qualify as whale trades lol.
 
cyanide12345678 said:
1M plus is too small.

With my naked puts, before i was so diversified, it was very normal for me to have positions worth 1M+. That’s too much noise when even my trades would qualify as whale trades lol.
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it's the premium and not the notional value. So you sell 5000 contracts and get $1.75/ contract, that's $875K premium. Are you doing that much premium? I know you are a high roller, and that's pretty high.

The OptionStrat screener has a high end limit of 1M net premium. Whether people are outlaying that or collecting as premium.

I'm looking right now at OptionStrat, and while I don't sub to that part of the platform, it gives you a sneak peak. Set the slider > 1M and look at the highly liquid names. People are buying and selling 1M on NVDA, AAPL, and even with a PM account people are setting aside millions of dollars for this stuff (especially on selling options.)
 
thegenius said:
it's the premium and not the notional value. So you sell 5000 contracts and get $1.75/ contract, that's $875K premium. Are you doing that much premium? I know you are a high roller, and that's pretty high.

The OptionStrat screener has a high end limit of 1M net premium. Whether people are outlaying that or collecting as premium.

I'm looking right now at OptionStrat, and while I don't sub to that part of the platform, it gives you a sneak peak. Set the slider > 1M and look at the highly liquid names. People are buying and selling 1M on NVDA, AAPL, and even with a PM account people are setting aside millions of dollars for this stuff (especially on selling options.)
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Thanks for the clarification.

Nope definitely am not doing that kind of premium. I thought you meant notional value. As far as notional value goes, I’ve had multi million dollar positions, but premium the largest I’ve had is about 200k for one position with leaps (all in on meta when it was sub $100).

But yeah never have i come close to 1 million in premium on a position.
 
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I have discovered the glory of the call spread and it's ability to maximize my capital efficiency.

Trading shares just seems so primitive now, and truth be told, even if you're just a simple shares trader, you still NEED to know how the options market works since it's critical for price action.

Max pain levels, call/put ratios, market maker hedging practices... I was so blind before when I was only buying and selling shares.

It's good to finally have my eyes open and with the sun shining down.

Let's make some (more) money
 
HemorrhagicShock said:
I have discovered the glory of the call spread and it's ability to maximize my capital efficiency.

Trading shares just seems so primitive now, and truth be told, even if you're just a simple shares trader, you still NEED to know how the options market works since it's critical for price action.

Max pain levels, call/put ratios, market maker hedging practices... I was so blind before when I was only buying and selling shares.

It's good to finally have my eyes open and with the sun shining down.

Let's make some (more) money
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You ready for the blood the next two quarters?
 
WhatJobDoIPick said:
Anyone who is confident about this supposed blood should put the majority of their portfolio into SPY puts and post their positions.
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I just keep buying every month and dollar cost averaging. My retirement is in Vanguard target date funds set for 2055. My kids inheritance and wedding brokerage is in VOOG. My 529 for 3 kids is Vanguard Aggressive Growth S&P500. My personal brokerage is a mix of bank stocks (WAL, JPM, BAC), tech (ORCL, SMCI, ARM), and energy (OXY - I think Berkshire is going to make a huge move here).

My biggest winner was playing the bank stocks during the recent banking crisis with First Republic. That was awesome. All of my JPM stock was bought during that time. That was an obvious direction for the market.

I would say this is different. This seems to be a completely different direction for the economy. Away from China, towards America and American allies (that can be negotiated with or controlled). India is about to be a big winner. I might look into what the Indian stock market has to offer for my personal brokerage account.

Call me a pansy but my financial adulthood started 2008.
 
I'm all in with about 200K cash on hand that I use to keep buying dips. Fairly heavy in tech. Got some fabulous deals over the past few weeks. Snapped up EAT yesterday when it irrationally dumped 15%.

GOOGL
AMZN
EAT
CCL
CLS
CRDO
META
NVDA
PYPL
TMUS
TWLO
UBER

No stops and 100% not worried. This will turn around a lot faster than people realize once deals start getting made. It's been a nice break for me since I haven't had to follow the market every day. Down about 1% YTD at this point. Huge NVDA position. Gobbled it up sub $100
 
Groove said:
I'm all in with about 200K cash on hand that I use to keep buying dips. Fairly heavy in tech. Got some fabulous deals over the past few weeks. Snapped up EAT yesterday when it irrationally dumped 15%.

GOOGL
AMZN
EAT
CCL
CLS
CRDO
META
NVDA
PYPL
TMUS
TWLO
UBER

No stops and 100% not worried. This will turn around a lot faster than people realize once deals start getting made. It's been a nice break for me since I haven't had to follow the market every day. Down about 1% YTD at this point. Huge NVDA position. Gobbled it up sub $100
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Like this whole list except EAT at multiyear highs still. I think the world wouldn't skip a beat without Chili's.
 
valianteffort said:
Like this whole list except EAT at multiyear highs still. I think the world wouldn't skip a beat without Chili's.
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Yeah, it's just a momentum stock that's on SA Alpha Picks. I have all the Alpha Picks in a screener and get alerts if one of them drops suddenly. I've made some good money on it over the past year. 150% gain during that time. The YOY EBITDA 45% vs 2% sector and Forward EPS growth 50% vs sector 5% is nuts. That being said though, I think it's definitely becoming well overvalued and probably running out of steam so I have a small position. I wouldn't even know about it if I hadn't seen it on the Alpha Picks list. For the longest time I thought it was a maritime shipping company! I'm usually not into restaurant tickers so I would have never come across it normally.
 
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UNH getting too cheap to avoid but my morals are keeping me away from it, now in the 300s after hours. Anyone here buying our arch nemesis healthcare provider?
 
valianteffort said:
UNH getting too cheap to avoid but my morals are keeping me away from it, now in the 300s after hours. Anyone here buying our arch nemesis healthcare provider?
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Thanks for calling that out. That looks extremely interesting. Post market 399. Next major support around 383-387 which would make for a very reasonable swing with a stop less than 5%
 
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