Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

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thegenius said:
Dude....if you keep on lowering your price target to buy, you will never end up owning UNH (or any stock for that matter).

The key thing to see today is that volume is 10x what it normally is (on the daily, going back as long as trading view can post daily charts) which is what we see during capitulation. This has only happened a few times over the past 40 years. I showed the daily and weekly chart. On the weekly chart, only a few instances in the 90's was there higher volume. The other thing to see is that UNH has gone up consistently after those other few blips.

Kind of reminds me of META a few years ago when it got to 180. I thought it was going to 100 then. And I never bought, at all, until I started buying calls around 450. Stupid of me.

Daily Chart

View attachment 403714

Weekly Chart

View attachment 403715
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Yeah i personally think it bottomed at 250. There was a lot of volume there with some heavy duty buying.

But i thought it had bottomed earlier at 300 and i had thought there’s no way its going into the 200s when it was at 400. But here we are.

Hence sold 80 puts at $160 strike in case 250 in fact wasn’t the bottom and $200 is. The premium i was originally going to get, now i added 3 more months to the equation to it, which is fine, not the end of the world. Granted my position size is much bigger, but my strike price is also much lower, so it feels like reasonable risk.

I slightly panicked in the AM and didnt quite get the best pricing for my roll over, probably could have gotten 5-6k extra in premium for the roll, but seeing something drop from $308 to 260 and then 260 breaking and then 255 and then continuously dropping, i had to make a roll before i was in the money, and 230 was dangerously close to being in the money today.

So yeah…. Overall I’m happy with how i did. I can always go back up in strikes eventually.

Edit: it takes so much courage when you’re down so much and everything is going against you to still turn around and double down. I actually thought about going reallly big and opening 100 contracts instead of 80 for $160 jan strike but chickened out in case of persistent downward trend.
 
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cyanide12345678 said:
Yeah i personally think it bottomed at 250. There was a lot of volume there with some heavy duty buying.

But i thought it had bottomed earlier at 300 and i had thought there’s no way its going into the 200s when it was at 400. But here we are.

Hence sold 80 puts at $160 strike in case 250 in fact wasn’t the bottom and $200 is. The premium i was originally going to get, now i added 3 more months to the equation to it, which is fine, not the end of the world. Granted my position size is much bigger, but my strike price is also much lower, so it feels like reasonable risk.

I slightly panicked in the AM and didnt quite get the best pricing for my roll over, probably could have gotten 5-6k extra in premium for the roll, but seeing something drop from $308 to 260 and then 260 breaking and then 255 and then continuously dropping, i had to make a roll before i was in the money, and 230 was dangerously close to being in the money today.

So yeah…. Overall I’m happy with how i did. I can always go back up in strikes eventually.

Edit: it takes so much courage when you’re down so much and everything is going against you to still turn around and double down. I actually thought about going reallly big and opening 100 contracts instead of 80 for $160 jan strike but chickened out in case of persistent downward trend.
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It seems like you got.... options
 
Got back a big chunk of my losses from yesterday from unh as my last rollover position is now at a 50k profit in 2 days.

Would have been very very sweet if i didn’t have a large position to begin with and went big yesterday.

Trailing spy by 6% ytd 🙁

Oh well….
 

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Current swings:

  • ANF: +1.14%
  • AGESY: +2.24%
  • ALIZY: -0.37%
  • AMZN: +10.34%
  • BUD: +0.72%
  • BRK/B: -0.03%
  • BSX: +1.34%
  • CCL: +20.76%
  • CLS: +45.54%
  • CRDO: +39.47%
  • EA: +0.69%
  • EBR: +0.62%
  • GFI: +4.27%
  • HURN: +0.41%
  • KINS: +0.96%
  • NUTX: +51.44%
  • NVDA: +32.43%
  • OLO: +0.77%
  • PM: +4.29%
  • TJX: +1.45%
  • UBER: +27.58%
  • VRNA: +12.14%

Curious to see what Monday brings. Post market was positive until Moody's released their credit downgrade which pisses me off because that kind of stuff always feels like mass market manipulation and everything went negative after that.

Historically, SPY fell 6% 2011 downgrade and 10 year yields rose briefly. Fitch 2023 downgrade was followed by about a 3% pull back with flow into treasuries. Current environment is strong GDP, low unemployment and trade truce optimism so I anticipate a pull back next week more in line with 2023. Wild card is the failure of the tax bill and continued tariff uncertainties.

I bet gold stocks do well this week so I would recommend hedging with them. I had tons of gold stocks popping up on my screeners on Friday.

UNH looks like it's stabilizing. I'm watching it on 4h timeframe to develop bullish ichimoku criteria before I enter. Very bullish on 30m timeframe.

Poorest trade last week was TTWO. I based it on the chart and price action and sold it on the "poor" earnings report aftermarket at a 3% loss. The market proved me wrong the next day and it did not sell off like I anticipated and has continued to gain. You can't win them all.

I should probably exit ANF. It's horribly bearish but it's one of those examples of getting married to a stock where your logic is affected by hindsight bias which I know is a bad thing but I made so much money on it in the past that it overpowers my objective assessment of the stock based on the chart. Luckily, I recognize that and have a small position.

Screenshot 2025-05-17 at 12.51.16 PM.png


Will update stops tomorrow based on support levels seen on 30m timeframe. I'd do it today but I'm tired, have had a margarita and want to play Doom: Dark Ages.

P.S. I swear as good as BRK.B does every year I have non stop losing swing trades with them. I don't know why I keep trading that stock.
 
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Got stopped out of KINS. Stops have put me in about a 15% cash position over past few days. Several pretty good set ups developing that hopefully will provide entries over next week or so. Gold expectedly up today. No trades.
 
cyanide12345678 said:
Is pton turning around and making a profit now? Or its still on the path to bankruptsy?
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Not sure, it had a lot of bullish option activity this morning.

1747775955624.png


I liked the chart and it had a decent stop loss so I took about a 44K position. Already up 4.6% end of day. Couple of analyst upgrades in the past week and it's recently started trading above 50/200 SMA so was on my radar. It's recovering from an almost 57% decline in the past year from highs. Not terrible quant score.


Screenshot 2025-05-20 at 4.41.45 PM.png



Decent chart. Oversold on the daily and relatively low RSI on the weekly as well. Not the best stop loss but not the worst either ~8% New CEO. Recent earnings could have been worse. I have both the bike and rower and I believe in the product. I think their sub service and the quality of the equipment is what makes the product. I like to either think they can turn around or get an acquisition. Would make a perfect Apple or Amazon acquisition if the new CEO can demonstrate that it can be a profitable company.

It's most definitely not my usual trade but I genuinely like the product.

If you use Grok AI, it has a pretty good explanation for why it thinks the stock went up today that's worth reading. I'd post it but it's too much text. I use Grok a lot for stock analysis and just for overall running strategies by it or market analysis stuff.
 

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I'd rate peloton as a buy. It's got a good product, offers a service people are still buying and has a decent amount of subscribers. It's not pandemic area popular, because people got options, but that is reflected in its share prices undergoing a correction.
 
Groove said:
Not sure, it had a lot of bullish option activity this morning.

View attachment 403911

I liked the chart and it had a decent stop loss so I took about a 44K position. Already up 4.6% end of day. Couple of analyst upgrades in the past week and it's recently started trading above 50/200 SMA so was on my radar. It's recovering from an almost 57% decline in the past year from highs. Not terrible quant score.


View attachment 403916


Decent chart. Oversold on the daily and relatively low RSI on the weekly as well. Not the best stop loss but not the worst either ~8% New CEO. Recent earnings could have been worse. I have both the bike and rower and I believe in the product. I think their sub service and the quality of the equipment is what makes the product. I like to either think they can turn around or get an acquisition. Would make a perfect Apple or Amazon acquisition if the new CEO can demonstrate that it can be a profitable company.

It's most definitely not my usual trade but I genuinely like the product.

If you use Grok AI, it has a pretty good explanation for why it thinks the stock went up today that's worth reading. I'd post it but it's too much text. I use Grok a lot for stock analysis and just for overall running strategies by it or market analysis stuff.
Click to expand...

That Jul 7c had vol 100,000 contracts on a OI of 6K. that's positive. Don't need any analysis to know that those are probably bullish as opposed to some hedge fund selling OTM calls for some income. Some whale bought 52,260 contracts around 0.39 and they went up 50% in a day. I'll be following this one.

Are we looking at the same chart? on the daily RSI isn't oversold, it's 54.6. And on the weekly its 49.

I think the chart is blah, but I'm not a great chartist. There was that recent low on April 4th, and it's bounced nicely, but it's a "fake low" as it didn't go down on technicals or anything else. It went down becuase of trump.
 
thegenius said:
That Jul 7c had vol 100,000 contracts on a OI of 6K. that's positive. Don't need any analysis to know that those are probably bullish as opposed to some hedge fund selling OTM calls for some income. Some whale bought 52,260 contracts around 0.39 and they went up 50% in a day. I'll be following this one.

Are we looking at the same chart? on the daily RSI isn't oversold, it's 54.6. And on the weekly its 49.

I think the chart is blah, but I'm not a great chartist. There was that recent low on April 4th, and it's bounced nicely, but it's a "fake low" as it didn't go down on technicals or anything else. It went down becuase of trump.
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Yeah, I agree. It's really not a great chart. I use stochastic RSI, not regular RSI. I should have clarified. PTON up another 3.8% premarket. I'm honestly not quite sure how long I'll hold this one. I'd be very tempted to close the position if it gets near 7 before it hits that resistance range ~ 7.1-7.3 That would be plenty gain for me. I'd consider holding longer if the chart looked better. I do like the product though.
 
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I'm gambling on MTPLF (American OTC ticker for Japanese stock 3350).
Basically trapped shorts with 11% float company added a massive amount of BTC and it's pulling a GME. There is a European ticker too if you have IBKR. I can't recommend it though as it's already up to $15 from $5 a few days ago. But who knows where these land before they land at zero.
 
I got stopped out of CCL and NVDA. Sitting on a big cash position. Currently on nights so I can't trade during market open. Doubt I'll take any new positions this week and will probably wait until Monday to re-assess market. We're kind of due for some digestion from the recent uptrend. Bond sell off and rising yields causing some VIX pop and feels risky to play a bull today or tomorrow. Only wild card is this Trump tax bill potentially being pushed through which would play this common theme of bullish activity on positive news. Updated all my stops today very tight on 4h chart. I have the next week off so looking forward to some market research this weekend and just overall reading. I should be flipped around and ready to focus during regular trading hours come Monday.
 
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Stopped out of CRDO, EA, HURN, NUTX, POWL, TJX while I slept. PTON with 11% gain and I have raised stop loss to 7 on 30m chart for any pull back. I'm pretty happy with that short term swing trade.
 
cyanide12345678 said:
Sofi is an amazing company. I have 195 $9 contracts for it.

Their user growth has been tremendous.
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I was thinking about keeping it as a long term investment because of what happened to me with PLTR. I had 6277 shares at $18.14/share... Sold it for a small profit ~14k.
 
So, as I said other day, I had a huge NVDA position and got stopped out prior to the weekend. Not unsurprisingly, EU tariffs got postponed and suddenly the market is positive instead of negative on nothing other than headlines which is the market narrative lately. NVDA earnings are due any moment and I resisted the urge to dive back into NVDA today given the market turnaround. I've had an incredible 30% gain in the past 1.5 months and I know personally how volatile this stock can be. In January, it had the largest market cap loss in a single day (600 billion) of any S&P stock in history. As much as I am a long term believer in NVDA and have immense confidence in not only the company but the stock, I just can't risk losing those gains to some whip saw after earnings. Blackwell will be a huge boon going forward in the AI space but I'm not actually sure what kind of hit was sustained with any of the China export restrictions. It shows an implied volatility around 7% so who knows but even if it ramps up, I'm very satisfied in the recent gains and will gladly re-invest on any pull back.

Started out the day in about a 70% cash position. Made several trades but retained about a 40-50% cash position to see how the market plays out this week. I've had 17% YTD gain and am very happy with that considering the overall market performance and don't want to blow it before the market has truly declared itself. I also still think June/July have a greater probability of volatility. Tight stops during these 2 months.

Closed my gold position today for a nice 11% profit. GFI

Current Portfolio:

ATGE
AGESY
ALIZY
BUD
BSX
CLS
CMP
HRTG
IHS
PM
SPOT
STRL
TIMB
UBER
VRNA
WMT
QTUM

40-50% cash. Patiently awaiting set ups.
 
Been using Grok for some pre-market analysis. It's easy to assume the AI is providing accurate data but that's not always the case, especially when it's using technical analysis. I had to call it out on quite a few stocks that it was misinterpreting technical analysis. We had a back and forth where I accused it of being unreliable and made it explain to me how it was going to change going forward to provide me with confidence so I wouldnt' have to double check everything. I felt like I was lecturing a 5 year old. It was most apologetic. There's a ChatGPT finance plugin that I might start using but I can't access ChatGPT from work.

Red futures pre-market. WSJ on stalling China trade talks. Obviously, all the recent tariff legal challenges are expected to shake market confidence or at least I would assume that would happen. I read another article about Trumps team preparing back up 15% tariffs using Trade Act of 1974. Haven't had a chance to go over PCE data. Closed BSX with market order, closed QTUM, got stopped out of UBER yesterday and raised stops even more and have about an existing 60-70% cash position. I'm personally expecting some more volatility and doubt I'll take any new positions today. Will hold cash into the weekend. Watching NVDA for any substantial pull backs. It's currently down pre-market around 138.
 
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President Donald Trump accused China of violating a trade agreement with the U.S.

Trump's statement comes after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that the U.S. trade talks with China are "a bit stalled."

"China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!," Trump posted on the Truth Social platform.

The U.S. and China reached a temporary truce earlier this month, with both countries agreeing to roll back tariff hikes till mid-August. Even so, the U.S. has moved ahead with tech restrictions on China, while Beijing has yet to significantly ease curbs on critical mineral exports.

"The very high Tariffs I set made it virtually impossible for China to TRADE into the United States marketplace which is, by far, number one in the World. We went, in effect, COLD TURKEY with China, and it was devastating for them," Trump said in the post.

Bessent had earlier said the countries' presidents, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will need to speak to each other to reach a deal.


"I made a FAST DEAL with China in order to save them from what I thought was going to be a very bad situation, and I didn’t want to see that happen. Because of this deal, everything quickly stabilized and China got back to business as usual," Trump said, adding later in the post that China had violated the deal.

That's from SA/Truth Social this morning. Watch your tech stocks and anything China reliant. NVDA briskly pulling back. SPY down and testing support.
 
Groove said:
Been using Grok for some pre-market analysis. It's easy to assume the AI is providing accurate data but that's not always the case, especially when it's using technical analysis. I had to call it out on quite a few stocks that it was misinterpreting technical analysis. We had a back and forth where I accused it of being unreliable and made it explain to me how it was going to change going forward to provide me with confidence so I wouldnt' have to double check everything. I felt like I was lecturing a 5 year old. It was most apologetic. There's a ChatGPT finance plugin that I might start using but I can't access ChatGPT from work.

Red futures pre-market. WSJ on stalling China trade talks. Obviously, all the recent tariff legal challenges are expected to shake market confidence or at least I would assume that would happen. I read another article about Trumps team preparing back up 15% tariffs using Trade Act of 1974. Haven't had a chance to go over PCE data. Closed BSX with market order, closed QTUM, got stopped out of UBER yesterday and raised stops even more and have about an existing 60-70% cash position. I'm personally expecting some more volatility and doubt I'll take any new positions today. Will hold cash into the weekend. Watching NVDA for any substantial pull backs. It's currently down pre-market around 138.
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Wow that’s impressive you can use grok and ChatGPT for somewhat reliable market analysis. How do you feel about WSJ coverage?
 
sloh said:
Wow that’s impressive you can use grok and ChatGPT for somewhat reliable market analysis. How do you feel about WSJ coverage?
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I wouldn't say it's completely reliable. You have to spend a lot of time training it and it's nothing earth shattering but I am finding it useful. It would be really nice if you could pass it login credentials and it could pull data from my subscription websites but so far I can't find any AI that can do that. The closest is the Operator feature in ChatGPT subscription but that's very rudimentary and inefficient. The closest I can get is doing screener, etc.. XLS downloads from SA or other websites +/- screenshots and feeding the data to the AI. So, for instance...I'll feed a combination of XLS ticker data from the quant database in SA and have it build a database of stocks to use for recommendations that particular day and then I'll have it do more of a technical analysis on each ticker and combine that with it's own analysis of sector performance or any recent macroeconomic events/pre-market analysis so it can further make daily recommendations. It's kind of the same thing I do already and as I mentioned above, there are issues with reliability in using the AI for technical analysis. Ultimately, I'm trying to leverage it to make my job easier and although everything is promising, I can't really say it's actually saving me any time. It is useful though in situations where I want to know all the economic events that week along with times and/or earnings reports and do any of them correlate with my stock list, etc.. It's pretty good with those kinds of tasks. Excited to see what future iterations are going to be capable of doing. It also doesn't have access to real time market data which is super frustrating.

I'm not a subscriber to WSJ, it just happened to post the news first and I saw it as a link on Seeking Alpha. That's another thing...once AI is capable of web pushing alerts, that's when things are going to get really interesting. So far, it will scour for tailored news alerts to your specifications but it can't actually alert you without a prompt so odds are most of the time I'm getting the alert first from say bloomberg or SA web push alerts.
 
Late afternoon rally after morning sell off. Bought PLTR, NVDA on the pull back. Essentially, entered close to my original exiting position on NVDA except with a much smaller position. Stop on 4h support. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't pull back further Mon/Tues so I'm not brave enough to take a larger position. The weekend is a long time for more potential negative China news. Unsure what Monday will bring so unwilling to make any further trades. Weird day.
 
Pre-Market Report: June 2, 2025


Market Overview: S&P 500 futures dip 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.5%, and Dow futures are flat (-0.1%) at 6:00 AM ET, after a robust May (S&P +6.2%, Nasdaq +9.6%). European markets are mixed; FTSE 100 flat at 8778. Asia sees Nikkei +0.8%, CSI 300 -0.4%. WTI crude at $60.50/barrel (-0.5%), gold steady at $3,242/oz.


Key Drivers: Trump’s tariff threats, including 50% EU duties and China trade deal concerns, revive trade war fears despite a court blocking IEEPA tariffs (stay pending appeal). Key data today: S&P PMI Manufacturing (9:45 AM ET), ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending (10:00 AM). PCE inflation (2.1% headline) supports two Fed rate cuts by year-end.


Pre-Market Movers: Gainers: CLF +25% (steel tariffs), BNAI +63%, BMGL +67%. Losers: SAIC -6.5% (weak profit). Active: TSLA, NVDA, AAPL (-0.8% pre-market).


Earnings: Campbell’s (CPB, EPS $0.77 est.), SAIC (EPS $2.03 est.).


Sentiment: Cautious on X, with tariff and jobs report focus. S&P 500 resistance at 5,800, support at 5,600.

That's a brief AI report. I made it do it in 200 words or less.

Did about an hour last night and this morning on research. Have added a screener from morningstar listing Price/FVE ratio stocks 0-1 that adds more time but I actually find a few nuggets in that list from time to time lately. Need to tweak it so it's not as long.

Hoping to get some entries today. Watching following that are at good buy points according to my criteria:

NVDA
ANF
AMZN
META
UBER

?AAPL
?AMD
?OMAB
?IHS

Update:

Bought ANF, AMZN, META, UBER, AMD, AVAH

Lots of flow into Gold and Metals today. Wish I had held my GFI position.
 
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Pre-Market Survey: U.S. Stock Market, June 3, 2025


  • Overall Market Sentiment: 48% of traders on X expect a flat open, 30% predict a slight decline due to trade policy uncertainty and rising oil prices, 22% are bullish on industrial sector strength.
  • S&P 500 Outlook: 45% anticipate a 0.2-0.5% drop, citing tariff concerns and upcoming JOLTS data.
  • Nasdaq Outlook: 35% bearish, expecting tech weakness, especially Nvidia post-earnings. 20% see AI-driven gains.
  • Dow Jones Outlook: 40% bullish, forecasting a 0.3% rise, driven by industrials amid EU tariff pause expiring July 9.
  • Key Stocks:
    • Dollar General (DG): 50% bullish, expecting strong Q1 earnings.
    • CrowdStrike (CRWD): 20% optimistic, 40% cautious due to cybersecurity sector outlook.
    • ExxonMobil (XOM): 40% favor gains as oil prices rally.
    • Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN): 35% bearish on consumer discretionary.
  • Events to Watch: JOLTS report (55% expect volatility if labor demand weakens), Powell’s remarks, earnings from DG, CRWD, Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
Most active sectors 1mo: XLK, XLI, XLY, XLC

Watchlist:

Conviction:

TSLA
MA
TSM
?AAPL
?BRK.B

GAP has gapped down (PUN intended) for some reason after last earnings. Mental note to research why this happened as it looks like it might be a good value once it stabilizes. Pretty good financials. FVE 28

Speculative:

IHS
VCISY
OMAB
INTR
FTK
OSIS
MOS
CALX
BSGM
LMB
AXS
ATI

Hope some of you own CEG after the META energy deal announcement. It's way up pre-market.

Update:

Bought TSLA, TSM, GAP, GOOGL
 
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I just took another 9k+ profit in SOFI. Total profit so far ~20k in the past 2 months. That stock is bouncing between $12-14/share. I buy when it's at $12+ and sell at $14+.

I probably could make more selling options but I don't understand options too well.
 
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Splenda88 said:
I just took another 9k+ profit in SOFI. Total profit so far ~20k in the past 2 months. That stock is bouncing between $12-14/share. I buy when it's at $12+ and sell at $14+.

I probably could make more selling options but I don't understand options too well.
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You are apparently doing just fine doing what you do. I bought some at 13.x for my kids account.

Twitter is all up in a handful of stocks, including SOFI. that along with HIMS, PLTR, OSCR and a bunch of other schitt.
 
OSCR financials are fine, FINTWIT all over it, they were right about HIMS/PLTR, so ive got 2000 shares for fun in OSCR
 
Not much trading for me last few sessions other than swing/day trading NVDA on the 15/30. About 60% cash that I use for big positions in NVDA with quick exits and small gains. Nothing exciting. Stopped out of HRTG. Bought some more GAP. Rest of my positions are doing ok. Been kinda focusing on my wife's accounts which I've got mainly in the following: GOOGL, GAP, AMD, AMZN, ANF, META, UBER. I'm a little bit more conservative with her stuff which is a much smaller account but it's still up around 11% YTD which is surprising considering I often overlook it and it sits in cash for long periods of time.

Tried taking a position in TSLA recently thinking maybe my bad luck is over with that stock only to wake up the next day to all the Trump/Musk breakup and the stock tanked stopping me out for a loss. I'm back to my original philosophy which is I just refuse to trade that stock. It's so unpredictable and hinges on any small tweet.

Unfamiliar with OSCR, looks like they sell health insurance? Chart doesn't look terrible though. Not much momentum but fundamentals don't look too bad at all. Large volume spikes on June 5th and May 7th on those bullish candles. If it can close above that 200SMA, it might start to take off. If it reverses off the 200SMA and especially if it breaks that 13.57 support then I'd probably exit. Good luck!

Been working a lot and off the next several days. Need to get up early tomorrow and reset all my stops which are way out of date. Basically if market had any sort of sudden move downward, I'd lose big in some of my positions so definitely need to update all of them. It's probably my least favorite thing to do.
 
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Groove said:
Not much trading for me last few sessions other than swing/day trading NVDA on the 15/30. About 60% cash that I use for big positions in NVDA with quick exits and small gains. Nothing exciting. Stopped out of HRTG. Bought some more GAP. Rest of my positions are doing ok. Been kinda focusing on my wife's accounts which I've got mainly in the following: GOOGL, GAP, AMD, AMZN, ANF, META, UBER. I'm a little bit more conservative with her stuff which is a much smaller account but it's still up around 11% YTD which is surprising considering I often overlook it and it sits in cash for long periods of time.

Tried taking a position in TSLA recently thinking maybe my bad luck is over with that stock only to wake up the next day to all the Trump/Musk breakup and the stock tanked stopping me out for a loss. I'm back to my original philosophy which is I just refuse to trade that stock. It's so unpredictable and hinges on any small tweet.

Unfamiliar with OSCR, looks like they sell health insurance? Chart doesn't look terrible though. Not much momentum but fundamentals don't look too bad at all. Large volume spikes on June 5th and May 7th on those bullish candles. If it can close above that 200SMA, it might start to take off. If it reverses off the 200SMA and especially if it breaks that 13.57 support then I'd probably exit. Good luck!

Been working a lot and off the next several days. Need to get up early tomorrow and reset all my stops which are way out of date. Basically if market had any sort of sudden move downward, I'd lose big in some of my positions so definitely need to update all of them. It's probably my least favorite thing to do.
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Try to also take a position in TSLA but my target price is $250. There will be another feud between the two guys with the biggest cojones in the world.
 
Bought more MSTR, IBIT, and TSLA calls today

I feel it brewing... things are gonna pop off soon!

Global Liquidity/M2 has risen EXTREMELY quickly in the last few months, and this means all risk assets are likely to pump
 
HemorrhagicShock said:
Bought more MSTR, IBIT, and TSLA calls today

I feel it brewing... things are gonna pop off soon!

Global Liquidity/M2 has risen EXTREMELY quickly in the last few months, and this means all risk assets are likely to pump
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As did I (MSTR and TSLA). How far out did you go with IBIT?
 
thegenius said:
As did I (MSTR and TSLA). How far out did you go with IBIT?
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March 2026

I've learned the hard way that, at least for me, the best approach is buying very reasonable strikes with TONS of time/theta premium.

Yes, it's more expensive, and the upside is smaller, but I've lost too much money buying shorter-dated calls/spreads.
 
thegenius said:
This thread should just be renamed ER Finance Lounge or something similar.
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Other options include:

1. How to intelligently lose money
2. Market Tuition for Physicians
3. If you stick with it and don't lose your entire bag, this is the key to leaving the ED
4. My wife has no idea how or why we're richer than when I was a practicing EM physician
 
HemorrhagicShock said:
March 2026

I've learned the hard way that, at least for me, the best approach is buying very reasonable strikes with TONS of time/theta premium.

Yes, it's more expensive, and the upside is smaller, but I've lost too much money buying shorter-dated calls/spreads.
Click to expand...

I'm considering just buying BTC itself, either DCA or at random times, and just holding it in self-custody. I kind of believe that in 10 years BTC will be 500K - 1M/coin. Kind of. Especially if we continue to debt spend the way we are. Just the other day I opened a Kraken account and funded it with 5K.
 
thegenius said:
I'm considering just buying BTC itself, either DCA or at random times, and just holding it in self-custody. I kind of believe that in 10 years BTC will be 500K - 1M/coin. Kind of. Especially if we continue to debt spend the way we are. Just the other day I opened a Kraken account and funded it with 5K.
Click to expand...

I think $1M per coin by 2035 is an inevitability
 
thegenius said:
I'm considering just buying BTC itself, either DCA or at random times, and just holding it in self-custody. I kind of believe that in 10 years BTC will be 500K - 1M/coin. Kind of. Especially if we continue to debt spend the way we are. Just the other day I opened a Kraken account and funded it with 5K.
Click to expand...

I’ve started to genuinely believe the same that at some point bitcoin is heading to 1M a coin.

Not sure if i should just buy some ibit or butcoin through coinbase or robinhood or something.

Any benefit of ibit?
 
cyanide12345678 said:
I’ve started to genuinely believe the same that at some point bitcoin is heading to 1M a coin.

Not sure if i should just buy some ibit or butcoin through coinbase or robinhood or something.

Any benefit of ibit?
Click to expand...

There are Twitter folks who say the best thing to do is buy BTC and hold it in self-custody. So you donwload it onto a hardware wallet. They claim that is the safest. The problem with IBIT and others, they claim, is you are not owning BTC itself. You are owning shares of an ETF that owns BTC. Plus the yearly fees eat away at the value of BTC. and there are regulatory fiat risks.

I don't know enough about how much these risks are actually "clinically" relevant so-to-speak. The problem I have owning BTC on self-custody is hardware trends change over time, I don't know if USB will be around in 10 years, maybe the device wears down, maybe you lose it, or some other schitt happens and you can't access the bitcoin on your hardware wallet despite having it.
 
HemorrhagicShock said:
I think $1M per coin by 2035 is an inevitability
Click to expand...

If you think this is the case....then that is the only investment to have. It's not like the S&P, real-estate, gold, precious metals, bonds, or other assets will 10x over 10 years.

I reckon the only thing that can 10x over 10 years would be active option trading. You need a lot of leverage
 
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