Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

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Porfirio said:
Ah but they have $98 billion in cash on hand. They can buy AI.
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Yea I have a feeling they're going to do exactly that, much like META/Zuck is doing with his $100M incentives to join their team.

That said I sold my Apple position a while back (when Buffett eased off his) and moved it all into TSLA and NVDA

My big horses: TSLA, NVDA, MSTR, BTC, SOL (I'm probably wrong about that last one since it looks like ETH is going to be the on rails for the entire Stablecoin regime)
 
against my better angels, i jumped back into this game. Collected some premium on NVDA CSPs. then tried to dissuade myself so sold a MSTR CSP and proceeded to sweat for a few days, but sold for a small premium. i sold a EWZ csp today in honor of this thread, though the premium was pitiful. i guess i am a pure degenerate (or master trader?) now so i will keep going in my play account and maybe open up margin eventually

a few questions if you guys dont mind:
1) the tail risk is still looming in my mind. I agree that ETFs and blue chip stock have a near zero probability of going to $0.00. do you just accept that this is essentially a never event and average down your CSPs to avoid assignment? i think cyanide mentioned a similar strategy

2)how do you evaluate if a premium is juicy enough? Right now I am looking at IV compared to historical. the stock scanner in ToS is fun to play with. I am going to research more. MSTR had a nice premium but it felt commensurate to the risk cus that whole company is a scam. how do you assess for premium dislocation?

3) do you guys use volatilty strategies? havent felt my heart rate move like that since being an intern running a code


re apple: I sold a big position earlier this year. I think tim apple has done all there is to make apple a money printing machine, at the (perhaps justified) cost of innovation. i think they will buy someone like perplexity and the next CEO will be a more Jobsian
 
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HemorrhagicShock said:
Yea I have a feeling they're going to do exactly that, much like META/Zuck is doing with his $100M incentives to join their team.

That said I sold my Apple position a while back (when Buffett eased off his) and moved it all into TSLA and NVDA

My big horses: TSLA, NVDA, MSTR, BTC, SOL (I'm probably wrong about that last one since it looks like ETH is going to be the on rails for the entire Stablecoin regime)
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NVDA and AMD make up 25% of my brokerage account. I am up 14% in AMD (bought it before tariff fiasco) and 47% in NVDA.

Sold TSLA for an 8% profit in about a week. It's a stock that is very volatile. This is how I am going to play with it (buy and sell).
 
Haven't traded AAPL in awhile. Not impressed at all. I think they are lacking innovation and it's been an internal red flag when I have gone multiple product refreshes with no real need or desire to update my iPhone/iPad/Mac, etc.. At most, the battery life gain in my new Apple Watch Ultra was nice but that's about it. Overvalued stock. Revenue Growth below sector. EPS Growth Forward below sector. Net Income margin is awesome but it's always been good. Momentum is crap. Many downward earnings revisions in the past few months. Not super impressed with Apple TV and the lack of the IOS to truly integrate AI more than it has is discouraging. The chart is terrible and AAPL has proven so many times that it can do this sideways thing for a long time. I won't take a position until fundamentals improve and/or it generates momentum. It would probably need a brand new product or some catalyst like Apple Watch able to detect blood sugar or something that blows the Meta glasses out of the water, etc.. I can't help but miss Steve Jobs and imagine what the company would look like if he were still around. Bring back Johnny Ives. Tim Cook is a great CEO but he's no visionary.
 
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Groove said:
Haven't traded AAPL in awhile. Not impressed at all. I think they are lacking innovation and it's been an internal red flag when I have gone multiple product refreshes with no real need or desire to update my iPhone/iPad/Mac, etc.. At most, the battery life gain in my new Apple Watch Ultra was nice but that's about it. Overvalued stock. Revenue Growth below sector. EPS Growth Forward below sector. Net Income margin is awesome but it's always been good. Momentum is crap. Many downward earnings revisions in the past few months. Not super impressed with Apple TV and the lack of the IOS to truly integrate AI more than it has is discouraging. The chart is terrible and AAPL has proven so many times that it can do this sideways things for a long time. I won't take a position until fundamentals improve and/or it generates momentum. It would probably need a brand new product or some catalyst like Apple Watch able to detect blood sugar or something that blows the Meta glasses out of the water, etc.. I can't help but miss Steve Jobs and imagine what the company would look like if he were still around. Bring back Johnny Ives. Tim Cook is a great CEO but he's no visionary.
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I think they should fire Tim Cook.
 
Splenda88 said:
NVDA and AMD make up 25% of my brokerage account. I am up 14% in AMD (bought it before tariff fiasco) and 47% in NVDA.

Sold TSLA for an 8% profit in about a week. It's a stock that is very volatile. This is how I am going to play with it (buy and sell).
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Yeah, it's so funny with AMD. I was looking at them a few weeks ago and thought it was way undervalued but it wasn't scoring very good on the SA quant but is one of those stocks where you're like...I know this is a solid semi play even if some of the fundamentals look bad. Well, I didn't have the confidence to use my own portfolio so I bought about 50K with my wife's portfolio. She's had like a 41% gain since then, lol. I told her other day that her portfolio was about to outperform my own. Her portfolio is:

AMD
AMZN
ANF
META
UBER
GOOGL

I've got a huge NVDA position as well but I'm having a super hard time letting it go. $170?! Who would have thought we'd be here 3 months ago. Insane.
 
Groove said:
Yeah, it's so funny with AMD. I was looking at them a few weeks ago and thought it was way undervalued but it wasn't scoring very good on the SA quant but is one of those stocks where you're like...I know this is a solid semi play even if some of the fundamentals look bad. Well, I didn't have the confidence to use my own portfolio so I bought about 50K with my wife's portfolio. She's had like a 41% gain since then, lol. I told her other day that her portfolio was about to outperform my own. Her portfolio is:

AMD
AMZN
ANF
META
UBER
GOOGL

I've got a huge NVDA position as well but I'm having a super hard time letting it go. $170?! Who would have thought we'd be here 3 months ago. Insane.
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That made me LMAO.
 
Groove said:
Yeah, it's so funny with AMD. I was looking at them a few weeks ago and thought it was way undervalued but it wasn't scoring very good on the SA quant but is one of those stocks where you're like...I know this is a solid semi play even if some of the fundamentals look bad. Well, I didn't have the confidence to use my own portfolio so I bought about 50K with my wife's portfolio. She's had like a 41% gain since then, lol. I told her other day that her portfolio was about to outperform my own. Her portfolio is:

AMD
AMZN
ANF
META
UBER
GOOGL

I've got a huge NVDA position as well but I'm having a super hard time letting it go. $170?! Who would have thought we'd be here 3 months ago. Insane.
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I would hold that NVDA position for at least 5 years, don't even touch it. It will outperform everything else.
 
Splenda88 said:
NVDA and AMD make up 25% of my brokerage account. I am up 14% in AMD (bought it before tariff fiasco) and 47% in NVDA.

Sold TSLA for an 8% profit in about a week. It's a stock that is very volatile. This is how I am going to play with it (buy and sell).
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Monster portfolio!
 
Groove said:
Haven't traded AAPL in awhile. Not impressed at all. I think they are lacking innovation and it's been an internal red flag when I have gone multiple product refreshes with no real need or desire to update my iPhone/iPad/Mac, etc.. At most, the battery life gain in my new Apple Watch Ultra was nice but that's about it. Overvalued stock. Revenue Growth below sector. EPS Growth Forward below sector. Net Income margin is awesome but it's always been good. Momentum is crap. Many downward earnings revisions in the past few months. Not super impressed with Apple TV and the lack of the IOS to truly integrate AI more than it has is discouraging. The chart is terrible and AAPL has proven so many times that it can do this sideways thing for a long time. I won't take a position until fundamentals improve and/or it generates momentum. It would probably need a brand new product or some catalyst like Apple Watch able to detect blood sugar or something that blows the Meta glasses out of the water, etc.. I can't help but miss Steve Jobs and imagine what the company would look like if he were still around. Bring back Johnny Ives. Tim Cook is a great CEO but he's no visionary.
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AAPL is a slow mover for those searching for dopamine hits like me. Enjoy alt season fellas, we got 4-8 weeks of this ****!
 
We spend a ton of time on tech stocks (I get it they are sexy right now).

What about APO and KKR? Trump is pushing hard for private equity to make it into 401ks. I really only see it blowing up higher. Both have been a loss YTD.
 
Saying it here.

OPEN share will be $8-10 by the end of this year. I gonna try to get a 10k position while the stock is in its road to recovery.
 
I hope Warsh gets Powell's job. Good CNBC interview. March 2026 can't come fast enough.



Stopped out of MU yesterday or day before? 4.7% loss. That took care of my margin issue so I didn't have to sell any NVDA. No trades today or yesterday.
 
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Groove said:
I hope Warsh gets Powell's job. Good CNBC interview. March 2026 can't come fast enough.



Stopped out of MU yesterday or day before? 4.7% loss. That took care of my margin issue so I didn't have to sell any NVDA. No trades today or yesterday.
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I think Powell has done a good job.
 
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Splenda88 said:
I think Powell has done a good job.
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He has objectively done a brilliant job in one of the hardest positions to hold. He engineered the soft landing brilliantly with his team.

A vast majority of anti-Powell rhetoric is partisan, and should be ignored.

Having said that, there are plenty of reasons why we need a new approach and why I do think the only way out of this deficit is growing productivity. That will start with running it hot when it comes to monetary policy.
 
I think he's definitely had the most difficult FED job in a very long time. Pre-COVID, COVID, Ukraine War, Tariffs, etc.. That being said, I didn't like his slow response to 2021-2022 inflation, difficult to read and I think sometimes communicates much more poorly than some of his predecessors. I thought the rate hikes in 2022/2023 were overly aggressive. He delayed action and then we go from 0.25% in March '22 to 5.5% by July 23'?! I also thought he proved completely oblivious to supply-side inflation drivers and was zeroed in demand side influencing. I also think Warsh has a good point in that with the AI explosion and changing economy some of the FEDs models are genuinely outdated and we need a fresh approach. That being said, who knows... maybe we'll be crying for JPow in a year.

I hope Trump doesn't try to fire him (not that I think that would be successful) because I think all our gains would be wiped out overnight after that headline.
 
Groove said:
I think he's definitely had the most difficult FED job in a very long time. Pre-COVID, COVID, Ukraine War, Tariffs, etc.. That being said, I didn't like his slow response to 2021-2022 inflation, difficult to read and I think sometimes communicates much more poorly than some of his predecessors. I thought the rate hikes in 2022/2023 were overly aggressive. He delayed action and then we go from 0.25% in March '22 to 5.5% by July 23'?! I also thought he proved completely oblivious to supply-side inflation drivers and was zeroed in demand side influencing. I also think Warsh has a good point in that with the AI explosion and changing economy some of the FEDs models are genuinely outdated and we need a fresh approach. That being said, who knows... maybe we'll be crying for JPow in a year.

I hope Trump doesn't try to fire him (not that I think that would be successful) because I think all our gains would be wiped out overnight after that headline.
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That's my read behind the open letter he released recently

It was a test of the market, get an idea of how it would react. The market didn't like it one bit.

Because hours later (or the day after, I forget) he immediately went back on it

Whew... this 2025 timeline gets more absurd by the minute.
 
Thought this one might be fun.

Subscriptions over the years (in no particularly order.)

Handful of Youtube/RDT subs that had basic info and was a wasted purchase.

Independent Advisor for Vanguard Investors - Super conservative newsletter that I subscribed to in the 90s and actually think I have a lifetime subscription though I haven't tried to access it in well over a decade. I actually modeled my first portfolio using their recommendations. It took me 2-3 years to realize they underperformed the SPY almost every year. Dan Wiener was the manager if recollection serves. He's probably dead by now. Kind of a Boglehead type group. They also did private portfolio management but I just subscribed to the newsletter.

TradingView - solid charting platform. I use it daily.

FinViz - It's nice....I just like TV better. Not a fan of the interface but I like the features.

TrendSpider - It's a cool charting platform and I do like the ability to "code" things without having to understand programming. That being said, it's missing the big community component that makes TV shine. I think if they started incorporating community and social features and incentivized the community to come up with scripting contributions like TV, it would be an enormously better value.

Wallstreets.io - Expensive. Old AAPL trading community. Specializes in very sophisticated algorithmic trading strategies and is community driven where you have people contributing strategies and can filter for the most successful and it has a robust back testing system in place. Decent built in charting platform as well. In the end... I couldn't argue with the success of some of the strategies but I just couldn't understand them and with so many components (sometimes 15 different indicators to cause activation) it was almost impossible to reproduce and many times was completely incongruous with human intuition. It performed great during bullish cycles and pretty terrible during sideways or bearish cycles. I learned a lot as a member about Heikin Ashi candle trading and other things so it wasn't money completely wasted but it was an expensive sub.

Minervini Private Access - Stupid expensive. Completely not worth it. You learn everything he does from his books and honestly the biggest thing I took from Minvervini is the concept of momentum trading. That's it. Otherwise, I don't actually think he has the best system of momentum trading but that being said, he's the one with multiple investing championships, not me. I think his books are great though. Learned a lot. Slick web platform. I did like that they did a daily learning podcast.

SA - By far my best investment over the years. The only one I couldn't do without. I've sub'd to multiple SA investing groups but none of them have been worth continuing.

WarriorTrading - Day Trading group that was very expensive from what I remember and was probably the single greatest waste of money in my trading career. There was a big FTC lawsuit against the company where they returned around 3 million to previous customers and I did partake in that lawsuit though it was one of those things where they email you and ask if you want any of the returns. I think I got a check for $40 or something. I think I quit day trading for good after that subscription.

TipRanks - Meh. Cancelled.

Zacks - Meh. Cancelled.

Motley Fool - Meh. Cancelled.

Morningstar - I do actually like Morningstar and I keep the subscription. Good articles and I like their TVE model.

IBD - Solid. I just don't use them anymore. Sub'd for a good 3-4 years.

Bloomberg Digital - I don't think I'll renew but I do like to read their articles and I have a sub that won't expire until later this year.

Barrons - I think I have a lifetime sub but I don't read them anymore. I like Bloomberg better.

Unusual Whales - Probably a better value for options traders. I don't particularly find the "whale flow" to be particularly useful. I mean, if institutions greatly outperformed the market, then maybe we should be paying more attention to their options flow but they don't reliably outperform the market, so why pay so much attention to these big options orders? I found it useful....but was honestly disappointed that many of my trades based on institutional options alerts turned out to be duds.

Kei Forex Ichimoku group - I actually learned a lot from this one and he's got a peculiar/unique approach to ichimoku clouds and reportedly read all the original Japanese books on the subject. (He's Japanese.) It wasn't as sophisticated as I was expecting but I did learn some basic ichi concepts that I still use to this day. It's a very solid course and was one of the few where I actually felt like I got my money's worth.

Timmothy Sykes - Penny stock trader. Damn, this one puts me back. Had to be 15 years ago? I honestly don't remember much from the course but I did read most of it. I think the main thing I learned is that if you are going to trade penny stocks, you might as well just go to your local casino. Complete waste of time and money.

There are probably ALOT more that I just simply can't recall right now. I feel like I've sub'd to all types of additional investing related stuff, 95% of which proved to be a complete waste of money.
 
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Anytime I happen across a Ross Cameron / WarriorTrading youtube video I simultaneously feel MASSIVE amounts of FOMO, but at the same time it triggers the immediate "avoid this scammer at all costs" parts of my limbic system.

It's insane how well he's mastered the art of selling his bull**** and creating a cult around trading. It seems like for the early part of his career he was front-running all of them. @Groove
 
TooMuchResearch said:
Pretty sure I've seen him pop up on YT videos recently again.
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Doesn't surprise me. I expect the rest of 2025 to be a fairly bullish environment. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a SPX 7000 print and other similar ATHs.

No better time to convince a novice stock picker that they actually know what they're doing.

It's like in the year after March 2020. I will never forget it. You could throw money at any ticker and 2-5x your money. It led to a lot of false confidence (I was guilty of this).

But if you stuck with it, sized down, and drilled down on the mechanics while staying disciplined with risk management on 1 or 2 eliable set-ups (for me it's the break-retest-go on momentum and mean reversion based on a variety of technicals) then you were rewarding coming out of that 2022-23 bear.

Hopefully, I can use those skills going into the back end of this year. My goal is to double my money at minimum, and I think I have the set up to do it.
 
HemorrhagicShock said:
Doesn't surprise me. I expect the rest of 2025 to be a fairly bullish environment. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a SPX 7000 print and other similar ATHs.

No better time to convince a novice stock picker that they actually know what they're doing.

It's like in the year after March 2020. I will never forget it. You could throw money at any ticker and 2-5x your money. It led to a lot of false confidence (I was guilty of this).

But if you stuck with it, sized down, and drilled down on the mechanics while staying disciplined with risk management on 1 or 2 eliable set-ups (for me it's the break-retest-go on momentum and mean reversion based on a variety of technicals) then you were rewarding coming out of that 2022-23 bear.

Hopefully, I can use those skills going into the back end of this year. My goal is to double my money at minimum, and I think I have the set up to do it.
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Are you talking about doubling your money in 1 year?

What's your YTD return as of today?
 
TooMuchResearch said:
I bought...1.5% of it in my 401k. Yes.

This is not financial advice and I can't recommend it to anyone but I want to see what Leshner can cook.
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Update:

Liquor House board held an emergency meeting and issued a lot of new shares to dilute Leshner before he could replace the board. Should be illegal but apparently isn't. They diluted his 51% down to 9%.
 
Splenda88 said:
Are you talking about doubling your money in 1 year?

What's your YTD return as of today?
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I have too many accounts to count, but it's over 50% of my liquid net worth.

Long calls on NVDA, TSLA, IBIT, and MSTR, along with CCs on a bunch of them too.

I am well aware that we are in a bull run and this won't be sustainable forever, but now is the time for MAJOR risk on. Make hay while the sun is shining.

Look at the dude that posted up over a million daily P/L in this thread with $COIN.

AI, Crypto and BTC are the way forward. BTC is the hurdle rate.

Investing in other sectors (outside of energy, but I dont know that sector well at all) is a waste of your capital if you know what you're doing. In all of these index ETFs a vast majority of the returns come from 10-12 stocks, the rest are dead weight.
 
HemorrhagicShock said:
I have too many accounts to count, but it's over 50% of my liquid net worth.

Long calls on NVDA, TSLA, IBIT, and MSTR, along with CCs on a bunch of them too.

I am well aware that we are in a bull run and this won't be sustainable forever, but now is the time for MAJOR risk on. Make hay while the sun is shining.

Look at the dude that posted up over a million daily P/L in this thread with $COIN.

AI, Crypto and BTC are the way forward. BTC is the hurdle rate.

Investing in other sectors (outside of energy, but I dont know that sector well at all) is a waste of your capital if you know what you're doing. In all of these index ETFs a vast majority of the returns come from 10-12 stocks, the rest are dead weight.
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50% + YTD is insane. I just looked at my brokerage account and I am only up 15% YTD.

Goal is to double that by the end of the year. I don't do options/crypto because I don't understand them.

That guy who posted over 1 million gain in 1 day is on a league of his own.
 
HemorrhagicShock said:
I have too many accounts to count, but it's over 50% of my liquid net worth.

Long calls on NVDA, TSLA, IBIT, and MSTR, along with CCs on a bunch of them too.

I am well aware that we are in a bull run and this won't be sustainable forever, but now is the time for MAJOR risk on. Make hay while the sun is shining.

Look at the dude that posted up over a million daily P/L in this thread with $COIN.

AI, Crypto and BTC are the way forward. BTC is the hurdle rate.

Investing in other sectors (outside of energy, but I dont know that sector well at all) is a waste of your capital if you know what you're doing. In all of these index ETFs a vast majority of the returns come from 10-12 stocks, the rest are dead weight.
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Bad ass. That's what I'm talking 'bout.

sean connery yes GIF
 
Splenda88 said:
50% + YTD is insane. I just looked at my brokerage account and I am only up 15% YTD.

Goal is to double that by the end of the year. I don't do options/crypto because I don't understand them.

That guy who posted over 1 million gain in 1 day is on a league of his own.
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I’ve had a pretty rough year of underperforming sp500. Healthcare stocks have been killing me with their underperformance.

I’ve built very large positions in cnc, unh, elv, novo. If their under performance ends And they stop bleeding, then i end the year up 15%. Otherwise going to be a long year of patience.

I also seriously reevaluated my portfolio and have decided to change a lot of things. I’m officially starting to buy $1000 of weekly ibit. I’m also changing my solo 401k which has about 130k in it. 50% of it I’m going to equally distribute between oark, ybit, ymax, rnty.

I had also ignored doing a back door roth for 2-3 years in favor of my taxable brokerage, going to do that with yield max funds as well.
 
cyanide12345678 said:
I’ve had a pretty rough year of underperforming sp500. Healthcare stocks have been killing me with their underperformance.

I’ve built very large positions in cnc, unh, elv, novo. If their under performance ends And they stop bleeding, then i end the year up 15%. Otherwise going to be a long year of patience.

I also seriously reevaluated my portfolio and have decided to change a lot of things. I’m officially starting to buy $1000 of weekly ibit. I’m also changing my solo 401k which has about 130k in it. 50% of it I’m going to equally distribute between oark, ybit, ymax, rnty.

I had also ignored doing a back door roth for 2-3 years in favor of my taxable brokerage, going to do that with yield max funds as well.
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The healthcare sector is taking a beating.

I just put some money in OSCR and I am seeing the stock going down everyday.
 
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Yea UNH is really foucking me now, I've got about 60+ call options expiring Jan 2026 and Jan 2027, along with $100K of shares.
I'm not too worried about it though.

Other than that...wow today is crazy. made about 70K on BABA, JD and BULL calls.
 
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HemorrhagicShock said:
AI, Crypto and BTC are the way forward. BTC is the hurdle rate.

Investing in other sectors (outside of energy, but I dont know that sector well at all) is a waste of your capital if you know what you're doing. In all of these index ETFs a vast majority of the returns come from 10-12 stocks, the rest are dead weight.
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This is the way. Those who don't get it, will get left behind ... on Earth 😎

1) If you know where to focus on and hop on the trends, concentration >>>>> diversifying no matter what anybody says
 
stillpremed said:
This is the way. Those who don't get it, will get left behind ... on Earth 😎

1) If you know where to focus on and hop on the trends, concentration >>>>> diversifying no matter what anybody says
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Yep.

If you have half a brain, which all physicians do, you can outperform the index ETFs by a mile.

Eventually this whole passive index ETF investing approach is going to lead to some serious tail risks. So much of the stock market is now dependent on those ETF flows and when things get THAT tilted, they're just asking to get rugged.

That said, the passive index ETF trend could continue for multiple decades before that ever becomes a problem.

Either way, concentration is key to growing wealth, and I wish I had realized that at the beginning of my investing career.
 
Porfirio said:
OPEN

Wow, when is that going to completely implode. It reminds me of the AMC and GME days.
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I wouldn't go full casino on it. You might have to wait their next earnings report, though by that time it might be in $5-7/share.
 
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HemorrhagicShock said:
Yep.

If you have half a brain, which all physicians do, you can outperform the index ETFs by a mile.

Eventually this whole passive index ETF investing approach is going to lead to some serious tail risks. So much of the stock market is now dependent on those ETF flows and when things get THAT tilted, they're just asking to get rugged.

That said, the passive index ETF trend could continue for multiple decades before that ever becomes a problem.

Either way, concentration is key to growing wealth, and I wish I had realized that at the beginning of my investing career.
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Yes we are hit with the diversify mantra to the extreme. Most people and docs cant stomach concentrated bets. It takes an x factor esp btc. But man oh man if more docs got into it and understood it they would all be part timers 10 years out even now i think.

Its just not that easy. You have to find and figure those things out yourself and then you need to get through the volatility to come out greener on the other side. Its def a special skillset.
 
thegenius said:
There will be the day when healthcare $XLV $UNH comes roaring back and people are going make a lot of money off that.
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Yeah just need one catalyst and i think things will turn around.

I’m getting killed, but being patient since my strikes are still so far out of the money.

$185 strike for ELV - forward p/e of 6, compares well with historical p/e average of 16 for the stock. 8B in share repurchase remaining.

Cnc - $20 strike. Basically they have more cash than their market cap right now. It’s been pretty ridiculous. Hoping cnc comes out with a 1-2 B share repurchase program this 25th.

It’s been a painful ride, but one can never got the exact bottom and things should turn around since the selling has gone over board.

I have my fingers crossed for the 25th and 29th. Either those days will be very painful or amazing for me.
 
cyanide12345678 said:
Yeah just need one catalyst and i think things will turn around.

I’m getting killed, but being patient since my strikes are still so far out of the money.

$185 strike for ELV - forward p/e of 6, compares well with historical p/e average of 16 for the stock. 8B in share repurchase remaining.

Cnc - $20 strike. Basically they have more cash than their market cap right now. It’s been pretty ridiculous. Hoping cnc comes out with a 1-2 B share repurchase program this 25th.

It’s been a painful ride, but one can never got the exact bottom and things should turn around since the selling has gone over board.

I have my fingers crossed for the 25th and 29th. Either those days will be very painful or amazing for me.
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You see that price action on CNC right now? it's slowly drifting down
UNH did that exact same thing in april. I was selling puts then and just waiting for UNH to turn around, and it never did. Every day I would lose 1K thinking to myself "it will turn around."

I finally sold when it was 30 points less or so and lost probably 25K.

I won't do that again. I need to see these kinds of charts bottom before doing trades on the long side. It's Ok if you don't get the bottom. UNH's bottom was 250 and I got in at 262, 273, and 300. That's OK. Other people need to find the bottom!
 
thegenius said:
You see that price action on CNC right now? it's slowly drifting down
UNH did that exact same thing in april. I was selling puts then and just waiting for UNH to turn around, and it never did. Every day I would lose 1K thinking to myself "it will turn around."

I finally sold when it was 30 points less or so and lost probably 25K.

I won't do that again. I need to see these kinds of charts bottom before doing trades on the long side. It's Ok if you don't get the bottom. UNH's bottom was 250 and I got in at 262, 273, and 300. That's OK. Other people need to find the bottom!
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i lost 30k today. I’m telling myself - it will turn around 🤣🤣🤣

I’ve been telling myself that ever since it was 33 or something.

Look at that RSI, I’m surprised it has stayed that low for that long. Buyers are just not coming in, i don’t know what else buyers need.

Also…. Honestly, i was contemplating moving up my strike to in the money if earnings goes against me and basically getting rid of most leverage.

So current strike is $20 with March 26 as expiration with 555 contracts, I’ve been forced to go this long because of multiple rolls and things just kept going against me (was originally holding $27.5 strike September). But if earnings go against me, i think Im toying with the idea of going up to $25 strike and October/December strike and dropping position size to 200-250, if it’s a large enough move where 25 is at the money or in the money, the premium of $25 strike should easily be significantly more than my $20 strike position and let me drop position size to half.

Then with half the position size, I’ll just hold, and essentially wait for reversal.

Option B would be to go to $17.5 strike - all the way to January 27, and collect another 40k of premium for the next year and just forget about things.

I’m still thinking it through….. I’m just hoping there’s positive price action after earnings
 
finalpsychyear said:
Yes we are hit with the diversify mantra to the extreme. Most people and docs cant stomach concentrated bets. It takes an x factor esp btc. But man oh man if more docs got into it and understood it they would all be part timers 10 years out even now i think.

Its just not that easy. You have to find and figure those things out yourself and then you need to get through the volatility to come out greener on the other side. Its def a special skillset.
Click to expand...
I blasted my 401k a decade into the future with a couple of concentrated bets and am now getting pretty spread out. I liked the concentrated bets more.
 
TooMuchResearch said:
I blasted my 401k a decade into the future with a couple of concentrated bets and am now getting pretty spread out. I liked the concentrated bets more.
Click to expand...

great man. AI and btc in there ? Saw this on x so copied it here. Kinda nutty returns. Even if this continues for the next 5-10 years at a diminished rate i may be able to go part time in 2030.


Bitcoin Yearly Returns 2010 - 2025:

2010: +9900%
2011: +1473%
2012: +186%
2013: +5507%
2014: −58%
2015: +35%
2016: +125%
2017: +1331%
2018: −73%
2019: +95%
2020: +301%
2021: +66%
2022: −65%
2023: +156%
2024: +121%
2025 (so far): +25%

You just can't get it wrong with Bitcoin. You do need
Hold The Line Amc GIF
and likely just HODL for most but if you can't stand the volatility you will lose if you sell on emotion then should be avoided.
 
Last edited:
I'm super pumped for the AI industry both from an investing standpoint and from a science standpoint so I pretty much absorb various AI related stuff on YouTube during my off time. I got in from a late swing last night and enjoy watching Moonshots with Peter Diamandis and Dave Blundin and watched their recent interview with Eric Schmidt. It's a long watch but so worth it if any of you are interested. What a brilliant guy and I feel like he's got a really well developed vision of what the future might look like in a few years. Super exciting stuff. Worth watching! I was riveted.

 
Groove said:
I'm super pumped for the AI industry both from an investing standpoint and from a science standpoint so I pretty much absorb various AI related stuff on YouTube during my off time. I got in from a late swing last night and enjoy watching Moonshots with Peter Diamandis and Dave Blundin and watched their recent interview with Eric Schmidt. It's a long watch but so worth it if any of you are interested. What a brilliant guy and I feel like he's got a really well developed vision of what the future might look like in a few years. Super exciting stuff. Worth watching! I was riveted.

Click to expand...

I am also big on AI as well. What to you think of RXRX?
 
finalpsychyear said:
great man. AI and btc in there ? Saw this on x so copied it here. Kinda nutty returns. Even if this continues for the next 5-10 years at a diminished rate i may be able to go part time in 2030.


Bitcoin Yearly Returns 2010 - 2025:

2010: +9900%
2011: +1473%
2012: +186%
2013: +5507%
2014: −58%
2015: +35%
2016: +125%
2017: +1331%
2018: −73%
2019: +95%
2020: +301%
2021: +66%
2022: −65%
2023: +156%
2024: +121%
2025 (so far): +25%

You just can't get it wrong with Bitcoin. You do need
Hold The Line Amc GIF
and likely just HODL for most but if you can't stand the volatility you will lose if you sell on emotion then should be avoided.
Click to expand...
There is some crypto related stuff. My crypto related stuff is mostly outside of tax advantaged accounts.
 
If you want to hedge on OPEN just buy leaps. $5 calls for '27 are basically free. If it takes off over the next year you'll be sitting on a pile of cash, if not you are prepared to throw 2k away

Same reason I bought thousands of shares when it was under a buck. I like to speculate.

It pays off sometimes. I have 17k shares of rklb worth nearly a million itself and I bought 2/3 of those shares for around six bucks/share. Currently loading up on PL now for same reason, trying to shovel enough cash into it for 50k shares before it finally takes off
 
Last edited:
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