Changing course would be a mistake. Stop looking for 6 months to a year.
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No one can time the market.
The expectations are lower, but did you not see that the Chinese injected a **** ton of money into the economy? Which one ends up on toP?
who knows.
The expectations are lower, but did you not see that the Chinese injected a **** ton of money into the economy? Which one ends up on toP?
who knows.
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deleted59964
What would you change now and why? When will you get back in? You have to be right twice. Looking at indices: VTSAX and SP500 are up over the last week, month, year, 5 years. VTIAX is down over the last week but is also extremely volatile and I don’t know if the down is due to coronovirus or just typical volatility. I guess you could invest in something health care with the intent that the vaccine will cause that sector to roar, but probably not...you’d likely have to pick the right company that develops the vaccine. Good luck with that.
Benign negligence is the WCI philosophy. I think that applies in this situation.
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I think you’re overthinking things just a little. OK, a lot.
This is all sound advice.
*Cue 25% drop in market*
*Cue 25% drop in market*
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deleted162650
Inovio says they’ve done it.
Not changing anything, of course. See the last 72 threads about market timing in the face of the terror-of-the-day.
You can believe the world economy will continue to grow over the next 20-50 years, and can sit back and take your share without thinking or worrying. If you're anxious that this might be untrue, you can save more, spend less, and/or position yourself to need less if it all goes to hell.
Or you can believe you know something the market doesn't, despite all evidence to the contrary, and confer in serious tones with "gurus" about when to time the market ...
One set of beliefs is rational, and one is not.
You can believe the world economy will continue to grow over the next 20-50 years, and can sit back and take your share without thinking or worrying. If you're anxious that this might be untrue, you can save more, spend less, and/or position yourself to need less if it all goes to hell.
Or you can believe you know something the market doesn't, despite all evidence to the contrary, and confer in serious tones with "gurus" about when to time the market ...
One set of beliefs is rational, and one is not.
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deleted59964
i’ve found it interesting how there is nothing clinical on this topic on this board.
i wonder how much media attention this is getting in the US, we are on asia’s doorstep - it’s a pretty big deal
i wonder how much media attention this is getting in the US, we are on asia’s doorstep - it’s a pretty big deal
Here are my clinical though in a thread titled COVID 19 econ:
Droplet isolation with N95 mask just in case.
Lung protective strategy on ventilation.
Make sure the venous cannula isn't up against a wall when you put them on VV ECMO.
Whatever you do, remember nobody has it worse than Mednax "partners" who lost 20% of their equity just today. Most buy-ins are 250k, so just like that $50k drained away in one day...Mednax stock has to be one of the most useless equity stakes in the world.
In general, owning stock in the company where you are an employee is foolish. If you got that stock as part of your employment, it's best to dispose of it as soon as you are contractually able to. Having a large chunk of your net worth in one company, and having your income depend on that same company, is the ultimate anti-diversification. Add a dash of emotional connection (positive or negative) to the decision to keep or sell that particular equity, and it's just begging for things to end in tears.
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deleted59964
Which patients are you going to wear an n95 mask for?
can be transmitted by sub clinical patients.
I believe N-95 can filter 0.3 micron but the virus is 0.08 micron anyways.
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deleted59964
oops - sleep deprived
I don't think they've conclusively established how the novel coronavirus is transmitted, if it's primarily large droplet borne (probably) or if it's airborne like TB, measles, smallpox, legionnaire's disease, etc. There's evidence that some flu and coronaviruses might be transmissible on droplet nuclei, which can remain suspended in air for a long time, but it appears that this is "possible within the realm of physics" as opposed to "common" ....
Definitions vary but most put "droplets" at > 5 um and "droplet nuclei" at > 1 um though I've seen > 0.5 um also. An N95 mask ought to be fine if it fits properly. I'm in no hurry to test this out myself.
Anyway, point being, airborne virus transmission via free-floating individual virus bodies, not carried by dust or water droplets, doesn't seem to be a thing. So I think the 0.08 um size of one virus entity isn't an important number.
Only on the rare occasions when I get out of MOPP 4, I'm not crazy. 🙂
I hear you but that's a separate issue. I'm just saying that at this point it seems pretty likely that a properly worn N95 will do the trick, provided you're not licking your fingers after touching contaminated surfaces or letting people cough in your eyeballs. Only so much you can do. 🙁
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deleted59964
Coronavirus outbreak to cost airlines almost $30bn
Airline industry body IATA predicts global air travel demand will fall for the first time since 2009.
www.bbc.com
Coronavirus outbreak to cost airlines almost $30bn
Airline industry body IATA predicts global air travel demand will fall for the first time since 2009.
What’s your point here? Trying to desperately show us how we are all so wrong?
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deleted59964
No, highlighting this is a significant event and it will have some fallout.
I am one of the least financially literate people here, but I‘m sure the old mantra of time in the market, not timing the market is the right thing to do...
yeah no one can time the market. This was me > 2 years ago:
the S&P 500 has gained about 40% since i posted that. All my roth still sitting in cash. 💩
the S&P 500 has gained about 40% since i posted that. All my roth still sitting in cash. 💩
There's a giant chasm of a gap between recognizing that [world event] can impact a segment of the economy, and turning that recognition into consumer-investor level stock market trades that will profit from that event.
Unavoidable pitfall #1 is that by the time you have recognized the event, everyone else has too, and that event is factored into prices. You, sitting at home, reading the news on the internet, simply can't and don't get actionable information in time.
Unavoidable pitfall #2 is that believers in market timing see volatility surrounding these events (in retrospect, of course) and interpret that volatility as some kind of missed opportunity to make rational trades. Everything is obvious in retrospect. They look at volatility and think Gee I could have predicted that (or even Gee I did predict that). And they convince themselves that they have the insight to predict future moves because history is obvious. Fear of missing out makes them take risks that are objectively reckless.
The only reliable bridge an individual can take across that chasm is illegal insider trading, where an individual has non-public data (e.g. earnings reports before release).
Market returns are there for the taking. Take them. If they're not good enough for your goals, you have rational options
1) spend less
2) save more
3) need less
4) earn more
Market timing is gambling, and the house has an advantage. If you're going to jump in and out of positions with United Airlines because the coronoavirus is affecting tourism and the world looks a little darker outside, you might as well put that cash on 17 black at the MGM Grand, wait for the spin, and collect your winnings or mourn your losses. You'll get your result immediately, and you'll even know the odds going in.
It's a good lesson to learn in the very early years of your investing career. 🙂
My big market timing moves as a student and resident also lost a ton of money. Of course, "a ton" of money to me then is a day's paycheck now ... it's an education I paid for, except instead of my tuition going to a university my tuition went to the endless void of E*Trade.
FWIW, i knew this would be the outcome a good portion of the time. The total amount that I would have earned/lost is about 1 week's paycheck as an attending. Looking back at the decision. I still believe it was +EV (schilling index was high, everything felt like a bubble etc).
Either way I HAD to see it. It's like as a scientist, i knew drinking baking soda probably won't make my workouts better. But I just had to try it once, it's out of my system now, but everything is still in cash lol.
I had done a few individual stock purchases early on of companies I didn’t evaluate properly, because I thought I knew better based on news or products.
I keep one investment in my portfolio to remind me that I have lost using that strategy.
Sounds like it's not out of your system if you're still all in cash. Just do it man. Throw it all into something other than cash. You're literally LOSING money due to inflation. You could throw it all into a Target date retirement fund, s&p500, VTSAX, or any other low cost total market fund. You're young with a very long investment horizon. Even if you have 50k in your Roth IRA and it loses half its value, you'll be just fine.
Dollar Cost Averaging Is For Wimps
Learn what dollar-cost averaging IS and ISN'T and why there are better ways to reduce risk. Manage emotions, avoid regret, and skip the hassle of DCA.
www.whitecoatinvestor.com
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deleted171991
@dchz, do NOT try to time the market. The only reason not to be 100% (not considering the emergency funds) in stocks, at your age, is to sleep well at night. Set it to a S&P 500 or total stock market index or target fund, and forget it for 30 years.
And lump sum investing beats DCA most of the time, because the market goes up 80% of the time (at least historically).
Especially as a trainee, invest all the money you can afford in stocks. This is all peanuts when compared to your attending salary, but it gets really big after 30-40 years, through the magic of compounding. Bonds have been dangerous, because one could lose money if interest rates go up (and there isn't much space for them to go down). Invest as much as it would allow you to sleep well at night, even if the market drops 50-60%.
And lump sum investing beats DCA most of the time, because the market goes up 80% of the time (at least historically).
Especially as a trainee, invest all the money you can afford in stocks. This is all peanuts when compared to your attending salary, but it gets really big after 30-40 years, through the magic of compounding. Bonds have been dangerous, because one could lose money if interest rates go up (and there isn't much space for them to go down). Invest as much as it would allow you to sleep well at night, even if the market drops 50-60%.
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deleted87051
Wowsers, been awhile since we had a 3% gap down. Hopefully we can get a correction over the next week or so so I can start adding again
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deleted59964
Dow Industrials Close 1,000 Points Lower as Coronavirus Cases Mount
Investors around the world stepped up their retreat from stocks and piled into haven assets like government bonds and gold, reflecting escalating worries that the coronavirus will crimp global growth.
www.wsj.com
It's the retroscope, man. Beware.
Dow Industrials Close 1,000 Points Lower as Coronavirus Cases Mount
Investors around the world stepped up their retreat from stocks and piled into haven assets like government bonds and gold, reflecting escalating worries that the coronavirus will crimp global growth.
Here's my bet: you won't bump this thread with another popcorn icon in 6 months if the market is up 5% from today.
The risk is seeing what you expect to see and you think it validates your belief that you can predict these moves before they happen. Confirmation bias is real and it's dangerous to investors.
if you have pile of cash, today might be a good day to add. DOW 2.5% down on futures
If it goes global we are looking at 5 million dead Americans, 117 million dead globally if it spreads to maximum predicted levels (60%), half that if control measures limit it to Spanish Flu penetration levels. The economic impact of a global pandemic could cause a global depression. If it is contained early, which is looking to be exceedingly less likely, the prediction is an end to widespread infection by the end of April, with economic impacts lasting months instead of years.
San Diego lab claims to have discovered a coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours — but testing it will take months
Drug companies and labs worldwide are scrambling to come up with a vaccine to stop the deadly new virus.
www.cbsnews.com
The first vaccine in China is expected to be ready for clinical trials by the end of April, according to Xu Nanping, China’s vice-minister of science and technology.
There is a lot of work going on right now to deal with the Coronavirus:
www.clinicaltrialsarena.com
Coronavirus treatment: Vaccines/drugs in the pipeline for COVID-19
Coronavirus drugs: Here are five major coronavirus vaccines and drugs being developed for the treatment of Wuhan coronavirus. coronavirus medicine; corona virus cure; coronavirus cure update, coronavirus cure, coronavirus vaccine update, cure for coronavirus, coronavirus treatment update
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deleted162650
San Diego lab claims to have discovered a coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours — but testing it will take months
Drug companies and labs worldwide are scrambling to come up with a vaccine to stop the deadly new virus.
The first vaccine in China is expected to be ready for clinical trials by the end of April, according to Xu Nanping, China’s vice-minister of science and technology.
So who’s adding Inovio to their portfolio?
Sounds like it's not out of your system if you're still all in cash. Just do it man. Throw it all into something other than cash. You're literally LOSING money due to inflation. You could throw it all into a Target date retirement fund, s&p500, VTSAX, or any other low cost total market fund. You're young with a very long investment horizon. Even if you have 50k in your Roth IRA and it loses half its value, you'll be just fine.
Dollar Cost Averaging Is For Wimps
Learn what dollar-cost averaging IS and ISN'T and why there are better ways to reduce risk. Manage emotions, avoid regret, and skip the hassle of DCA.
Yeah it's not totally out of my system. LOL
I still think it's + EV to be in cash and my (very small) portfolio is gonna be riding on that assumption... Let's all just enjoy the ride with me and laugh at it later.
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deleted87051
Why would I invest in an evil pharmaceutical company? Especially one in California run by immigrants? They’re just trying to give us autism.
Today is 02/24/2020, there is no way I'm buying in on the way down right now. My investment horizon is so long that this won't matter, but it'll be a fun sweat!!!
I'm gonna quote this in a few years to look back on how good this move was....
I'm gonna quote this in a few years to look back on how good this move was....
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deleted162650
And besides, viruses have feelings too.
This too shall pass.
Another day or two of market correction represents a buying opportunity.
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deleted59964
of course it will, my point was this will be a significant event.
hope you all hold your nerve and don’t sell in the down turn.
i agree that attempting to time the market is generally a bad idea, but for me this time it was just too clear. a virus causing an economic disruption in the worlds most important economy (china) which was being underestimated by the market.
of course i still need to get back in ...
The market was overheated to begin with. Another 3-4 percent decline from these prices and I’ll start adding to my positions. A correction is long overdue and I still think the Coronavirus has not been priced in to these levels. The economic impact for the next 2 quarters will be significant. Still, by summer or early fall I would expect a snap back rally to occur. The bigger long term impact to stocks is Bernie Sanders. That is definitely not priced in yet. A Bernie victory in November may result in a 20 percent decline
Hot takes from blamemda. Little does he realize stonks only go up!
Donald Pump says the stock market is looking good to him right now!
I like adding a little bit of equities today. I expect another 3-5 percent decline from here. China’s central bank is pumping in liquidity. Earnings will be impacted this quarter and next quarter.
If you have cash to invest start looking again at equities. You may want to dip your toe today today or tomorrow. Again, another 5 percent down from here is likely over the next week or two.
If you have cash to invest start looking again at equities. You may want to dip your toe today today or tomorrow. Again, another 5 percent down from here is likely over the next week or two.
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