The ultimate COVID thread

Started by deleted59964
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vector2 said:
CVX and XOM also may have to cut dividend. That possibility is somewhat priced in but they’ll fall more if it does happen.
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Oils are too risky when there are so many "non risky" stocks on sale. I own XOM and CVX but will not add to my positions. I have owned them for 10+ years but am still underwater. Buy and Hold doesn't work and in this era of computer trading 100% equity exposure is insane.

Market drops of 40% or more like in 2008 and soon to be 2020 demand the smart investor keep cash/CDs/liquid bonds as part of his/her portfolio.
 
Why are you guys so confident stocks will rebound in a few years? First of all this is a coronavirus, as far as I'm aware of there has never been a vaccine developed for this family of pathogen that was remotely effective. This is as true for the common cold as it is for SARS.

Secondly, the recent market highs were all built on a decade + of low interest rates and quantitative easing rather than any kind of fundamental economic strength. As a result, the economy is up to the gills in leverage. I hope you realize that while stock prices are plummeting, the level of systemic debt is staying right where it was at the peak. We were only able to reach the recent highs due to stock buybacks and other debt-driven shenanigans, and that debt is still on the books. Anyone expecting a V shaped rebound in the stock market in the medium term is gonna have another thing coming. The FED has already used its magic electrons to get us from 2008 to the highs of 2019, and at this point it's all out of electrons.
 
Money-Moniker said:
Why are you guys so confident stocks will rebound in a few years? First of all this is a coronavirus, as far as I'm aware of there has never been a vaccine developed for this family of pathogen that was remotely effective. This is as true for the common cold as it is for SARS.

Secondly, the recent market highs were all built on a decade + of low interest rates and quantitative easing rather than any kind of fundamental economic strength. As a result, the economy is up to the gills in leverage. I hope you realize that while stock prices are plummeting, the level of systemic debt is staying right where it was at the peak. We were only able to reach the recent highs due to stock buybacks and other debt-driven shenanigans, and that debt is still on the books. Anyone expecting a V shaped rebound in the stock market in the medium term is gonna have another thing coming. The FED has already used its magic electrons to get us from 2008 to the highs of 2019, and at this point it's all out of electrons.
Click to expand...

Same **** different day. As long as we in the USA are the best home in a crappy neighborhood our stocks will rebound. With zero percent interest rates the FED is almost forcing you to buy dividend paying stocks. Will this be a V shaped recovery? No. But, neither was the late 2009/2010 market recovery V shaped. What I can tell you is if you buy great companies now they will be higher in 3 years.

The FED has more QE to use as ammo. Once we get a vaccine announcement you will look back at March 2020 as the buying opportunity of the decade.
 
The market bottomed in March of 2009 around 670. The market top was around 3400. A 50% retracement from the high to the low puts us at 2150. That's the level I'm using to buy more equities. Other "experts" say we should be using even more of a retrace so Goldman has 2000 as the number.
For true 2009 level pain (like in early March 2009) that number needs to be closer to 1700-1750.

If we get a spike in cases with exponential infections combined with filled ICUs that 1700 level could be correct. I've completely changed my mind about any speedy recovery. Without a Vaccine or effective treatment I predict we level off at 2500-2600 as the new norm in the Fall provided we contain the infection. In the meantime, 2500 will NOT be the bottom as we will re-test 2350 on our way to 2150.
 
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Money-Moniker said:
Why are you guys so confident stocks will rebound in a few years? First of all this is a coronavirus, as far as I'm aware of there has never been a vaccine developed for this family of pathogen that was remotely effective. This is as true for the common cold as it is for SARS.

Secondly, the recent market highs were all built on a decade + of low interest rates and quantitative easing rather than any kind of fundamental economic strength. As a result, the economy is up to the gills in leverage. I hope you realize that while stock prices are plummeting, the level of systemic debt is staying right where it was at the peak. We were only able to reach the recent highs due to stock buybacks and other debt-driven shenanigans, and that debt is still on the books. Anyone expecting a V shaped rebound in the stock market in the medium term is gonna have another thing coming. The FED has already used its magic electrons to get us from 2008 to the highs of 2019, and at this point it's all out of electrons.
Click to expand...

the stock market was high because of an 11 year bull run with companies making money hand over fist combined with low interest rates which means there is less competition from anywhere else to put your money. Stock buybacks are not shenanigans, they are a wise use of capital for a company that can't find anything better to do with the cash and more tax efficient than paying dividends.
 
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Mman said:
the stock market was high because of an 11 year bull run with companies making money hand over fist combined with low interest rates which means there is less competition from anywhere else to put your money. Stock buybacks are not shenanigans, they are a wise use of capital for a company that can't find anything better to do with the cash and more tax efficient than paying dividends.
Click to expand...

I'm not talking about companies using excess revenue to engage in buybacks. I'm talking about companies using the Fed's free money to fund buybacks by taking on massive debt. It is this mortgaging of the future to drive up the stock price in the short term that we'll be paying for in the years to come. The stock price gains are in the process of evaporating into thin air, while the debt that was accrued to generate them in the first place is still very much on the balance sheets and will hang over the economy for many, many years to come.

fortune.com

More than Half of All Stock Buybacks are Now Financed by Debt. Here's Why That's a Problem | Fortune

Disturbingly, companies are channeling more cash to investors than they are producing in free cash flow, the first time that has occurred since the Great Recession, according to Goldman Sachs.
fortune.com fortune.com
 
Mman said:
the stock market was high because of an 11 year bull run with companies making money hand over fist combined with low interest rates which means there is less competition from anywhere else to put your money. Stock buybacks are not shenanigans, they are a wise use of capital for a company that can't find anything better to do with the cash and more tax efficient than paying dividends.
Click to expand...
Save it for a rainy day like the rest of us maybe?

Companies made money because of corporate welfare and they will be begging for even more handouts this time.
 
pgg said:
I'm not sure what this means. Greenbacks aren't exchangeable for gold bricks any more. They just QE'd $700 billion the day before yesterday.
Click to expand...
But do you think throwing a bunch of worthless paper into the circulation adds real purchasing power? At some point you're just diluting it's worth, just like a counterfeiter. Notice all this cr*p show has done for decades now is trend lower the rate all the way now down to zero. It obviously isn't working, and there's no reason diluting the money supply should add any real wealth. We as a whole are so far down the rabbit hole in debt interest rates will never be able to rise to any sustained even mild/moderate rate. It's a house of cards basically. Closing down the shop for 6 months could definitely be a trigger to implosion.
 
Money-Moniker said:
I'm not talking about companies using excess revenue to engage in buybacks. I'm talking about companies using the Fed's free money to fund buybacks by taking on massive debt. It is this mortgaging of the future to drive up the stock price in the short term that we'll be paying for in the years to come. The stock price gains are in the process of evaporating into thin air, while the debt that was accrued to generate them in the first place is still very much on the balance sheets and will hang over the economy for many, many years to come.

fortune.com

More than Half of All Stock Buybacks are Now Financed by Debt. Here's Why That's a Problem | Fortune

Disturbingly, companies are channeling more cash to investors than they are producing in free cash flow, the first time that has occurred since the Great Recession, according to Goldman Sachs.
fortune.com fortune.com
Click to expand...
Absolutely. The country has run on increasingly more debt for so long that people that would never consider running their own finances like that are in total denial of what's been worsening year after year. Math never loses. It's undefeated.
 
Money-Moniker said:
Why are you guys so confident stocks will rebound in a few years? First of all this is a coronavirus, as far as I'm aware of there has never been a vaccine developed for this family of pathogen that was remotely effective. This is as true for the common cold as it is for SARS.

Secondly, the recent market highs were all built on a decade + of low interest rates and quantitative easing rather than any kind of fundamental economic strength. As a result, the economy is up to the gills in leverage. I hope you realize that while stock prices are plummeting, the level of systemic debt is staying right where it was at the peak. We were only able to reach the recent highs due to stock buybacks and other debt-driven shenanigans, and that debt is still on the books. Anyone expecting a V shaped rebound in the stock market in the medium term is gonna have another thing coming. The FED has already used its magic electrons to get us from 2008 to the highs of 2019, and at this point it's all out of electrons.
Click to expand...
You get it. Everyone knows how leverage makes you rich. If you put 20% down and your investment goes up just 20%, you have literally doubled your money (minus the debt cost of course). Here's what everyone time after time in history ignore. If that same investment goes down just 20% you are completely thoroughly 100% wiped out down to zero worth on that investment. But it doesn't stop there. You can lose money exceeding your entire investment if it drops more than 20% and you haven't bailed. Margins calls come in, more selling, more margin calls, more price drop etc. Deleveraging is an absolute b*tch that really doesn't get appreciated by the masses. Not only can you lose your entire worth on leveraged investments and be financially wiped out, you can be left now in debt actually owing money. In other words zero value is not the bottom anymore.

The Fed is out of can kicking bandades. We are at zero percent interest rates. Do they start paying us to borrow money? It's going to be really interesting watching this leveraged house of cards riding out a potential 6 month shutdown. I am way more concerned about all of this than what is a "very bad flu" virus that, yes, may kill a lot of the mostly weak. And the snowball doesn't stop there. The *****s of society may get their way with Socialism and all the mass poverty and death that comes with government control of industry. I feel we haven't even started to see badness if this stretches into a good number of months.
 
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What a great article summarizing all the public health action going on and comparing Covid vs Sars. This Genie is so far out of the bottle, I think a more efficient means of attack by infinite order would be not letting the Genie out so easily by banning/regulating the friggin nasty bat eating wet markets to begin with. All this because the wrong bat hooked up with wrong human.

China's large scale measures are apparently unprecedented. I'm not sure the US is willing or even capable. These guys built a friggin 1000 bed hospital in a week. I'm sure it will collapse within 6 months of use, but it's still impressive.

I'm glad at the end of a very pro public health article they do mention you can't close trade and commerce forever and at some point you may have to weigh in favor of more modest goals such lowering the peak incidences (you know, flatten the curve) and giving up on snuffing it out short of running its course. Great read.
 
Money-Moniker said:
I'm not talking about companies using excess revenue to engage in buybacks. I'm talking about companies using the Fed's free money to fund buybacks by taking on massive debt. It is this mortgaging of the future to drive up the stock price in the short term that we'll be paying for in the years to come. The stock price gains are in the process of evaporating into thin air, while the debt that was accrued to generate them in the first place is still very much on the balance sheets and will hang over the economy for many, many years to come.

fortune.com

More than Half of All Stock Buybacks are Now Financed by Debt. Here's Why That's a Problem | Fortune

Disturbingly, companies are channeling more cash to investors than they are producing in free cash flow, the first time that has occurred since the Great Recession, according to Goldman Sachs.
fortune.com fortune.com
Click to expand...

you are talking about a minority of companies that have taken on "massive debt" to fuel share buybacks.
 
Had 35% of portfolio in AGG prior to downturn. Put my toe in the water this morning, shifted 10% of that sum into total market index fund. Will plan to do that about once a week going forward. My wild guess is s and p bottoms around 2k in the next few weeks, so hopefully I’ll be averaging in somewhere near the bottom.
 
www.wsj.com

U.S. Seeks to Send Checks to Americans as Part of Stimulus Package

The Trump administration said it backs a plan to send checks directly to Americans, as part of a $1 trillion stimulus plan to help households and businesses hit by the sudden economic slowdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com


2 years of having to listen to trump and his ilk railing against socialists and now he wants to use a Yang-lite plan to give $1000 to every American. I guess irony must've been the first fatality in the COVID outbreak
 
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Very interesting Goldman call with 1500 companies. Estimates of 150 million will get the virus in the US. Up to 2%, 3 million, will die (I think the number will be less). BUT 3 million elderly die each year from "old age" and disease, so they expect extensive overlap.

Fascinating is the 2 approaches debated on here are the 2 different approaches used by the US and UK dealing with Corona pre-vaccine:

"There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load."

A handful of people have been basically referred to as lunatics for questioning might letting it run its course mostly (UK Approach) be better than mass quarantine and shutdown (US Approach). At the least, this legitimizes that it's a rational discussion to have.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Very interesting Goldman call with 1500 companies. Estimates of 150 million will get the virus in the US. Up to 2%, 3 million, will die (I think the number will be less). BUT 3 million elderly die each year from "old age" and disease, so they expect extensive overlap.

Fascinating is the 2 approaches debated on here are the 2 different approaches used by the US and UK dealing with Corona pre-vaccine:

"There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load."

A handful of people have been basically referred to as lunatics for questioning might letting it run its course mostly (UK Approach) be better than mass quarantine and shutdown (US Approach). At the least, this legitimizes that it's a rational discussion to have.
Click to expand...
One is the "pragmatic" view, the other is the humanitarian one.

By "flattening the curve", we can save more patients with comorbidities. I would rather lose some money and save some senior citizens. Let's not forget that many of them have made this country great and fought in wars for it. It's the least we owe them, instead of "sorry, but you're on your own".

I am incredibly disturbed by physicians who basically advocate for sacrificing the elderly and sick, by allowing the disease to infect everybody at the same time.
 
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Economic damage vs saving lives? We don’t know whether this virus will die out over the summer. In my area an extra 6 weeks means hot weather and high humidity. That could save thousands of lives.

So, the UK model is an example of a govt run healthcare system where acceptable losses are not only tolerated but even welcomed by govt officials. The UK will even ration ICU care because they won’t be able to handle the outbreak.

While this may be logical and even economically desirable it certainly isn’t compassionate. The M4all supporters should understand that a less costly system comes at a big price.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Economic damage vs saving lives? We don’t know whether this virus will die out over the summer. In my area an extra 6 weeks means hot weather and high humidity. That could save thousands of lives.

So, the UK model is an example of a govt run healthcare system where acceptable losses are not only tolerated but even welcomed by govt officials. The UK will even ration ICU care because they won’t be able to handle the outbreak.

While this may be logical and even economically desirable it certainly isn’t compassionate. The M4all supporters should understand that a less costly system comes at a big price.
Click to expand...

That's nice propaganda, but when it comes to compassion tell me which country currently has no plan for homeless, low-income, underinsured and uninsured pts who contract the virus.

We may lead in ICU beds per capita but inspite of the amount we spend we're nowhere near the top when it comes to physicians per capita, total hospital beds per capita, or ventilators per capita.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Economic damage vs saving lives? We don’t know whether this virus will die out over the summer. In my area an extra 6 weeks means hot weather and high humidity. That could save thousands of lives.

So, the UK model is an example of a govt run healthcare system where acceptable losses are not only tolerated but even welcomed by govt officials. The UK will even ration ICU care because they won’t be able to handle the outbreak.

While this may be logical and even economically desirable it certainly isn’t compassionate. The M4all supporters should understand that a less costly system comes at a big price.
Click to expand...

Where cold hard statistics meets patient care.
 
www.foxbusiness.com

What could a bailout for the cruise, hotel and airline industries look like?

Whether it is the land, sea or air, the travel industry has been touted as a candidate to receive some help from the government as a result of fear and damage from the coronavirus outbreak
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com


Maybe the cruise, hotel, and airline industry should've saved for a rainy day? Or how about they cut back on their starbucks, buy a more reasonably priced phone, move back in with their parents, and pull themselves up by their bootstraps
 
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vector2 said:
That's nice propaganda, but when it comes to compassion tell me which country currently has no plan for homeless, low-income, underinsured and uninsured pts who contract the virus.

We may lead in ICU beds per capita but inspite of the amount we spend we're nowhere near the top when it comes to physicians per capita, total hospital beds per capita, or ventilators per capita.
Click to expand...

Dude it’s the same story. There will not be enough icu bed or hospital beds both of which have been on the decline for a while now. The only reason we spend more is because we are getting more restrictive with who actually gets these beds. Meeting icu criteria now versus 15 years ago. Regs make it harder to justify the capacity.

The bottom line is no system will be able to handle massive influx of new cases and tough decisions about who gets what will be made.
 
RadsWFA1900 said:
Dude it’s the same story. There will not be enough icu bed or hospital beds both of which have been on the decline for a while now. The only reason we spend more is because we are getting more restrictive with who actually gets these beds. Meeting icu criteria now versus 15 years ago. Regs make it harder to justify the capacity.

The bottom line is no system will be able to handle massive influx of new cases and tough decisions about who gets what will be made.
Click to expand...

I understand the limitations we face here. The point I was making to blade is that he's trying to age-old scare tactic of "socialized healthcare = rationing!!" even though he knows damn well that we're rationing in this country right now as well. The difference is that the UK rations against old people and those with no hope of recovery while we mostly ration against poor people.
 
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vector2 said:
www.foxbusiness.com

What could a bailout for the cruise, hotel and airline industries look like?

Whether it is the land, sea or air, the travel industry has been touted as a candidate to receive some help from the government as a result of fear and damage from the coronavirus outbreak
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com


Maybe the cruise, hotel, and airline industry should've saved for a rainy day? Or how about they cut back on their starbucks, buy a more reasonably priced phone, and pull themselves up by their bootstraps
Click to expand...

If by bailout you meet loan them the money
 
RadsWFA1900 said:
If by bailout you meet loan them the money
Click to expand...

That the CEOs will use to pay themselves fat bonuses for successfully navigating through the crisis. Give me a break. It’s welfare. The airline and cruise industry knows full well that global calamities are a risk to their business. Now the American taxpayer will bail them out for not being prepared for that risk.
 
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RadsWFA1900 said:
If by bailout you meet loan them the money
Click to expand...

No, I mean BAILOUT

"The trade group argued that roughly half of the proposed assistance—$25 billion—should come in the form of direct grants to airlines. The proposal also outlines a $25 billion program in which the Federal Reserve would purchase financial instruments from, or provide interest-free loans or loan guarantees to, the carriers.

It also includes provisions for rebates of excise taxes—including those on tickets, cargo and fuel—that airlines paid in the first quarter and a repeal of those taxes through at least Dec. 31, 2021.

Some lobbying on behalf of the airlines believe that figure might not be enough, given the likelihood that the disruption to air travel will last for months, leaving carriers with huge debt loads and depressed cash flows.

“They might be shooting too low,” one person involved in the talks said.
"

www.wsj.com

WSJ News Exclusive | Airlines Seek $50 Billion Coronavirus Aid Package

U.S. carriers are in talks with the government to obtain financial assistance under a proposal that would be more than three times the size of the industry’s bailout after the Sept. 11 attacks.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com



And even if you were talking about a loan from the government with some nominal token interest rate, it's still a corporate bailout. If they want to wax poetic about the wonders of the free market, then they can walk their a$$ down to Wells Fargo and see what kind of interest rate they get on their $50b short term loan.
 
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vector2 said:
I understand the limitations we face here. The point I was making to blade is that he's trying to age-old scare tactic of "socialized healthcare = scary rationing!!" even though he knows damn well that we're rationing in this country right now as well. The difference is that the UK rations against old people and those with no hope of recovery while we mostly ration against poor people.
Click to expand...

Socialized healthcare as practiced in the UK and as will be practice here. My comment was as much about the decision by the UK to simply allow the virus to take its toll. When govt completely controls the healthcare system it does indeed decide who lives and dies.

Singapore and South Korea have taken the more compassionate route by using social distancing and quarantine to save lives.
 
BLADEMDA said:
When govt completely controls the healthcare system it does indeed decide who lives and dies.
Click to expand...

They great thing about that is that you or I can vote in and vote out who's in government. Not quite so easy to do with the CEO of UnitedHealth or the other insurance companies (unless you own billions in stock or you're an oligarch with a board seat.)
 
BLADEMDA said:
Economic damage vs saving lives? We don’t know whether this virus will die out over the summer. In my area an extra 6 weeks means hot weather and high humidity. That could save thousands of lives.
So, the UK model is an example of a govt run healthcare system where acceptable losses are not only tolerated but even welcomed by govt officials. The UK will even ration ICU care because they won’t be able to handle the outbreak.

While this may be logical and even economically desirable it certainly isn’t compassionate. The M4all supporters should understand that a less costly system comes at a big price.
Click to expand...
So what about Italy. Also a government run healthcare system. Is it not?
Italy, Denmark, Spain, New Zealand, Ireland.
Is this really about government run healthcare taking a chance on people?
Come on. Let’s not make this a political thing.
 
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GravelRider said:
Is anyone using this opportunity to refinance a mortgage? I bought my house during one of the rare times recently that rates were well over 4%. Mine is 4.3%. I’m looking to refinance to a 15 year below 3%. The question is, should I take some cheap cash out with the refinance?
Click to expand...

You may have to wait some time doing a refi currently. Volume is ridiculous.

Lenderfi has suspended any new applications.

Rates are actually a bit higher due to the volume. May have to wait a bit for the dust to settle.
 
It's easy to play the I'm not putting money over compassion and you don't care about our older war heros card. Those are meaningless cheap shots avoiding the tough decisions. "Compassion" has gotten us spending 80% of the healthcare dollar on the last 2 years of life with poor quality to show for it.

The easy way out has the country buried in debt and all we are offered is still more spending and more tax cuts, both of which are unaffordable. We're not talking about not being able to visit your 4th ski resort this winter. With prolonged economic shutdown you have half the country suffering, truly suffering. People will be literally losing jobs, homes, and hungry. Should I say you lack any compassion for them?
 
vector2 said:
www.wsj.com

U.S. Seeks to Send Checks to Americans as Part of Stimulus Package

The Trump administration said it backs a plan to send checks directly to Americans, as part of a $1 trillion stimulus plan to help households and businesses hit by the sudden economic slowdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com


2 years of having to listen to trump and his ilk railing against socialists and now he wants to use a Yang-lite plan to give $1000 to every American. I guess irony must've been the first fatality in the COVID outbreak
Click to expand...

I sure am glad Trump got to enact his corporate tax cuts.
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
The easy way out has the country buried in debt and all we are offered is still more spending and more tax cuts, both of which are unaffordable.
Click to expand...


Funny how whenever the market needs a little "liquidity" it happens immediately and without any mention of debate. But if the American people actually desperately need cash in their pocket from the government, it's means-tested, debated for days, too little to really matter, and takes over a month to arrive.
 
We just had the longest economic expansion ever. Wouldn’t that have been the time to raise taxes and pay down debt? Now we are headed into recession already at the highest debt levels this country has seen. Where is all the money for these bailouts coming from!? How is any of this sustainable? Why did Obama do this to us?
 
MoMoGesiologist said:
We just had the longest economic expansion ever. Wouldn’t that have been the time to raise taxes and pay down debt? Now we are headed into recession already at the highest debt levels this country has seen. Where is all the money for these bailouts coming from!? How is any of this sustainable? Why did Obama do this to us?
Click to expand...

Didn't you know - Trump is the king of debt and bankruptcy!
 
vector2 said:
I know we’re all anxious to discuss when we can start pouring sideline cash back into our brokerage accounts, but meanwhile in America:


Click to expand...




Can anybody educate me on why they wouldn’t just lay off the poor guy? What’s the advantage of keeping him on their “payroll”?
 
vector2 said:
www.wsj.com

U.S. Seeks to Send Checks to Americans as Part of Stimulus Package

The Trump administration said it backs a plan to send checks directly to Americans, as part of a $1 trillion stimulus plan to help households and businesses hit by the sudden economic slowdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com


2 years of having to listen to trump and his ilk railing against socialists and now he wants to use a Yang-lite plan to give $1000 to every American. I guess irony must've been the first fatality in the COVID outbreak
Click to expand...

I’m feeling the Bern....
 
SaltyDog said:
What they’re doing goes beyond unethical in my opinion. If that’s not in violation of some labor law it needs to be.
Click to expand...
nimbus said:
But why? I must be missing something.
Click to expand...

Most gig jobs and actually a lot of non-gig jobs are "at will" employment or what Europeans call zero-hour contracts. They just tend not to be zero hour very often unless we're in a sitch like this. Euros complain about them a lot more because they're not entirely brainwashed with the capitalist "noble job creator who's doing you a favor by making you an indentured servant" garbage.
 
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