The ultimate COVID thread

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This why he will approve almost anything to treat Covid 19. He must have the economy stabilized by September or he loses the election. Trump will pull out all the stops to get that Immunoglobulin to hospitals by September. The panic must stop before the economy can stabilize.
 
Looks like Congress is going to need at least a 2 Trillion stimulus/bailout bill. 2 trillion dollars. wow. Once the stock market recovers I have no idea where I'm going to put my money. I don't see the U.S. Dollar being worth very much in 10 years. I could be wrong but Gold is looking like it will become 10-20% of my portfolio ( I expect Gold prices to settle down to $1400 or so once the market bounces back).

 
man really hoping this will end soon. intubated 7 covid confirmed/rule out patients in the past 8 hours.. most of them were in 40s
Dear Lord. How big is your hospital? Do you have an intubation team whose sole job is to intubate?
Do y’all have enough PPE?
Are you in NY?
 
This stock is going up 30% or more next week: DHR

Anyone who bought it last week ahead of the big news today will make a lot of money.


while it is big news for Danaher, still a relatively small portion of their business so not sure it should see that big of a bump. Then again, the market hasn't exactly been rational lately.
 
P/E fpr stocks in the S and P 500 is around 14 for 2021. That is still too high. So, I expect another 10-15% drop from current levels which puts the market right around the Goldman Sach's predicted bottom of 2,000. There is strong support at 1850.


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GP: NYSE traders Market plunge

Meric Greenbaum, Designated Market Maker IMC financial looks up at the board before the opening bell right before trading halted on the New York Stock Exchange on March 9, 2020 in New York.
Timothy A. Clary | AFP | Getty Imgaes


The S&P 500 could return to record highs by early next year if U.S. efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak work and the government can quickly move forward with fiscal stimulus to cushion the impending economic blow, JPMorgan’s chief U.S. equity strategist said Friday.
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote in a note to clients he expects the S&P 500 to reach 3,400 in early 2021. That would top an all-time high of 3,386 set on Feb. 19. It is also 47% higher than the broad market average’s Friday close of 2,304.92.

The S&P 500 entered a bear market on March 12 — bringing the longest-ever bull expansion to an abrupt end — as the fast spread of the coronavirus and resulting shutdowns soured economic and profit growth forecasts around the world. However, after the relentless selling wave, Lakos-Bujas now sees a chance for stocks to return to record levels.
 
I am reasonably confident that those of us buying equities at around 2000-2150 will likely make a huge return on that investment of the next 12-18 months. This is a phenomenal buying opportunity that rarely occurs.

In 2009 I purchased a lot of equities in January of 2009. The market went from 900 to 667 over just 85 days. But,by the end of 2010 my investment paid off immensely. This is no different and after we bottom at a 40-45% correction from the highs that opportunity is once again in front of us.
 
After much research I have decided to add these funds/ETFs to my portfolio:


Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF
T Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth

The ETFs are for my taxable accounts while the mutual fund is for my retirement account. Of course, I am purchasing more individual Blue Chip names like JPM, Starbucks, Amex, Visa, Google, Facebook, Citi, Bank of America, etc. With markets down significantly and falling I will shop for companies like Disney, ATT and T or Verizon rather than Carnival or Delta or even Chevron. 40% off on these stocks represents a good long term buy.
 
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Personally, I have put everything into gold mining stocks, despite the risks of mines being shut down; I don't have much, which is why I went all in on this, I'd definitely hold on to gold right now if I had a more significant amount of savings. With the whole world dumping dollars at record pace to stimulate their economies and all that the fed and federal government is doing, I wouldn't be surprised if one of these days we wake up and gold starts to move up and up. Chances are all stocks will keep crashing along with a moderate decrease in the value of gold due to deleveraging though, in that case, if I wait long enough I will eventually recover and likely make gains within the next few years regardless. Perhaps more concerning is the possibility of skyrocketing inflation due to disrupted supply chains and unemployment; in which case bullets and guns maybe the best "investment".
 
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This why he will approve almost anything to treat Covid 19. He must have the economy stabilized by September or he loses the election. Trump will pull out all the stops to get that Immunoglobulin to hospitals by September. The panic must stop before the economy can stabilize.

I appreciate your optimism about finding a definitive treatment so quickly, but I simply don’t share it. What other viruses do we have excellent treatment options for? HIV was (is?) a true pandemic that killed tens of millions. It took us a couple of decades, but I’d say we have good definitive treatments for HIV now. Hep C? Sure, it took decades, but we have good (expensive) treatments for Hep C. The flu? Sure, Tamiflu is ok, I guess...surely not a silver bullet, though. What other viruses do we have definitive treatments for?

It is just completely unrealistic to assume that we are going to have definitive COVID19 treatments available in months...even by deregulating the FDA. The danger with that is there is a real chance that these rushed treatments end up causing more harm.

Now a vaccine in 12-18 months would be a more realistic hope.
 
Bet no one in the administration was thinking of this last year in their fervor for more tariffs....


“ WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Trade Representative’s office in recent days granted exclusions from import tariffs for dozens of medical products imported from China, including face masks, hand sanitizing wipes and examination gloves, filings with the agency showed on Friday.

...

Medline International Inc has already received exclusions on 30 products ranging from surgical gowns to face masks and medicine cups, most of which the company applied for at the end of January. A number of the exclusions were granted on Thursday, USTR documents showed.

The products were included in a fourth round of tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Trump on Sept. 1, 2019, amid heated U.S.-China trade negotiations.

The tariff rate on the medical products was initially set at 15%, but was lowered to 7.5% on Feb. 15 as part of the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade agreement. The deal leaves in place tariffs on about $370 billion worth of imports from China, including 25% duties on goods valued at around $250 billion.”

 
Bet no one in the administration was thinking of this last year in their fervor for more tariffs....


“ WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Trade Representative’s office in recent days granted exclusions from import tariffs for dozens of medical products imported from China, including face masks, hand sanitizing wipes and examination gloves, filings with the agency showed on Friday.

...

Medline International Inc has already received exclusions on 30 products ranging from surgical gowns to face masks and medicine cups, most of which the company applied for at the end of January. A number of the exclusions were granted on Thursday, USTR documents showed.

The products were included in a fourth round of tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Trump on Sept. 1, 2019, amid heated U.S.-China trade negotiations.

The tariff rate on the medical products was initially set at 15%, but was lowered to 7.5% on Feb. 15 as part of the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade agreement. The deal leaves in place tariffs on about $370 billion worth of imports from China, including 25% duties on goods valued at around $250 billion.”


Your hatred for Trump/Republicans is exhausting and annoying. Will you stay on topic? (Eg economics). Thanks Bernie
 
I appreciate your optimism about finding a definitive treatment so quickly, but I simply don’t share it. What other viruses do we have excellent treatment options for? HIV was (is?) a true pandemic that killed tens of millions. It took us a couple of decades, but I’d say we have good definitive treatments for HIV now. Hep C? Sure, it took decades, but we have good (expensive) treatments for Hep C. The flu? Sure, Tamiflu is ok, I guess...surely not a silver bullet, though. What other viruses do we have definitive treatments for?

It is just completely unrealistic to assume that we are going to have definitive COVID19 treatments available in months...even by deregulating the FDA. The danger with that is there is a real chance that these rushed treatments end up causing more harm.

Now a vaccine in 12-18 months would be a more realistic hope.

I think that convalescent serum may work well. Maybe not as a treatment once disease is established but as a preventative. 40 years ago before there was a HepA vaccine the Army would give us a butt full of it prior to deployment. Seemed to work. It's old science that could be up and running very soon to stop new infections.
 
My Predictions:

1. Immunoglobulin treatment available by June. This will decrease the ICU admissions by 50% or more. Death rates will plummet.
2. Antiviral therapy- This is a longer shot but likely 1-2 antivirals will show some effectiveness against Wuhan Virus
3. Combine 1 and 2 leads to a death rate under 15,000 for the USA by the Fall
4. Vaccine will be ready for phase 2 testing by late Fall. By December/Jan a viable vaccine will be in production.
5. By April 01, 2021 the S and P 500 will be back to 2800 and the crisis will have ended.

I know many of you think the world has ended. This is how it felt in December of 2008 when the entire country was in melt down mode. December 2008 wasn't the "low" and neither is the current s and p of 2300. The stock market will go lower probably in the 1800-2000 range. I predict for those that buy near the low profits will be in the 50% range by April 2021.

You're VERY optimistic, I will quote this in a few months.
 
You're VERY optimistic, I will quote this in a few months.

I am optimistic that a treatment will be forthcoming by the summer. Let's not forget the antivirals out there are being tested now. The vaccine will be available next season because TRUMP is throwing billions at the project.

The market will turn up once we have a vaccine or a real, effective treatment. Until then the panic and loss of economic activity will lead to lower stock prices.
 
I am optimistic that a treatment will be forthcoming by the summer. Let's not forget the antivirals out there are being tested now. The vaccine will be available next season because TRUMP is throwing billions at the project.

The market will turn up once we have a vaccine or a real, effective treatment. Until then the panic and loss of economic activity will lead to lower stock prices.
Blade I’m wondering if this thing will take at least 5+ years to recover from, not just 12-18 months. The longer this goes on the more uncertain I get.

I’m starting to think our way of life may be changed forever by this. China is going to look like the bad guy and nobody is going to want to do business with them like they had in the past.
 
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Blade I’m wondering if this thing will take at least 5+ years to recover from, not just 12-18 months. The longer this goes on the more uncertain I get.

I’m starting to think our way of life may be changed forever by this. China is going to look like the bad guy and nobody is going to want to do business with them like they had in the past.
I see China looking very good as they deploy aid and supplies to many hard hit countries, like they did with Italy.
 
So you think gold mining stocks are going to bounce back?
Debasement of currency is good for gold. I am very confident the price of gold will stay strong; the deleveraging during the financial crisis hit it hard and lead to a quick bounce back, this time people will not make the same mistake. The more money Trump and other governments around the world print, the more support for gold. Add that to all the disruptions in supply chains which will lead to inflation and we can expect a run for gold in the near future.

As for the stocks, in the long run, yes, I think gold mining stocks will bounce back. In the short term I am much more uncertain, I don't know what kind of impact closing of gold mines will have on their value. They can't keep silver and gold mines closed forever though, that's where industrial silver and gold comes from. In the financial crisis, some mining stocks lost 80% of their value, it could happen again with deleveraging. I am betting that strong gold prices will prevent this from happening though.
 
Debasement of currency is good for gold. I am very confident the price of gold will stay strong; the deleveraging during the financial crisis hit it hard and lead to a quick bounce back, this time people will not make the same mistake. The more money Trump and other governments around the world print, the more support for gold. Add that to all the disruptions in supply chains which will lead to inflation and we can expect a run for gold in the near future.

As for the stocks, in the long run, yes, I think gold mining stocks will bounce back. In the short term I am much more uncertain, I don't know what kind of impact closing of gold mines will have on their value. They can't keep silver and gold mines closed forever though, that's where industrial silver and gold comes from. In the financial crisis, some mining stocks lost 80% of their value, it could happen again with deleveraging. I am betting that strong gold prices will prevent this from happening though.
The mines don't really matter. The value of precious metals is sentimental (i.e. psychological), not industrial. As in it's almost a social convention, like paper money.
 
After much research I have decided to add these funds/ETFs to my portfolio:


Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF
T Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth

The ETFs are for my taxable accounts while the mutual fund is for my retirement account. Of course, I am purchasing more individual Blue Chip names like JPM, Starbucks, Amex, Visa, Google, Facebook, Citi, Bank of America, etc. With markets down significantly and falling I will shop for companies like Disney, ATT and T or Verizon rather than Carnival or Delta or even Chevron. 40% off on these stocks represents a good long term buy.

If one is a believer in mean reversion, the cheapest asset class is emerging markets value. I am sticking to my discipline (mostly) but adding a few more percent to this asset class. Options are SFENX, DGS. Preferably for tax advantages accounts. Check back in ten years.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
 
Your hatred for Trump/Republicans is exhausting and annoying. Will you stay on topic? (Eg economics). Thanks Bernie

But the economic consequences of this are directly tied to poor preparation and decisions made by the administration at the start of this pandemic. For example, early access to widespread testing could have allowed us to target quarantines. That ship has sailed and now the entire economy will suffer.
 
I’m starting to think our way of life may be changed forever by this.

Just for the sake of conversation, how might you theorize? Totally socialized healthcare in the US? Financial calamity which takes a decade or more to recover from? Massive social unrest, with foundational changes in our political structure? Do we follow the path of other prior world powers (Rome, Spain, the UK) and become just another has-been country?
 
But the economic consequences of this are directly tied to poor preparation and decisions made by the administration at the start of this pandemic. For example, early access to widespread testing could have allowed us to target quarantines. That ship has sailed and now the entire economy will suffer.

Again, stop blaming Trump for the virus. He hasn’t been perfect nor was Obama with H1N1. Liberals can be exhausting with their blind hatred.

Let’s stay on task.
 
Just for the sake of conversation, how might you theorize? Totally socialized healthcare in the US? Financial calamity which takes a decade or more to recover from? Massive social unrest, with foundational changes in our political structure? Do we follow the path of other prior world powers (Rome, Spain, the UK) and become just another has-been country?

I think the extent to which this becomes a disaster depends on how long we take to turn the tide. If social distancing and business stays at a stand still for > 90 days we may not recover or it will be 5-10 years.

Imo we need to isolate the clusters (NYC/Seattle) and get back to business in other areas. I don’t like the one size fits all approach

As blade mentioned, treatment needs to happen and happen fast
 
From the financial author and physician William Bernstien:

It’s well to consider this famous passage from Keynes’ The Economic Consequences of the Peace, which describes life in London just a few years before the lights went out in Europe for two generations in 1914: The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole world, and in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early arrival upon his doorstep; he could at the same moment and by the same means adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world . . . He regarded this state of affairs as normal, certain, and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement, and any deviation from it as aberrant, scandalous, and avoidable.32




Bernstein, William J. Deep Risk: How History Informs Portfolio Design (Investing for Adults Book 3) (p. 38). William J. Bernstein. Kindle Edition.
 
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Nah, life will continue on. I have an enduring optimism in capitalism and freedom to do business in the USA. If Trump can be a gazillionaire even after multiple bankruptcies so can many small business owners. It might not be what they have envisioned but with hard work businesses will rise again. The strong will survive, the weak will wither and opportunities abound for everyone else. The American spirit will endure! Stay healthy, do your part to flatten the curve and encourage others to do the same.
 
Nah, life will continue on. I have an enduring optimism in capitalism and freedom to do business in the USA. If Trump can be a gazillionaire even after multiple bankruptcies so can many small business owners. It might not be what they have envisioned but with hard work businesses will rise again. The strong will survive, the weak will wither and opportunities abound for everyone else. The American spirit will endure! Stay healthy, do your part to flatten the curve and encourage others to do the same.
That's because you don't know history, friend.

Humans are low-life animals, especially in a crisis, and the mob is unpredictable. The communist revolution in Russia started at the end of WW1. In times of crisis, bad things do happen.
 
From the financial author and physician William Bernstien:

It’s well to consider this famous passage from Keynes’ The Economic Consequences of the Peace, which describes life in London just a few years before the lights went out in Europe for two generations in 1914: The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole world, and in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early arrival upon his doorstep; he could at the same moment and by the same means adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world . . . He regarded this state of affairs as normal, certain, and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement, and any deviation from it as aberrant, scandalous, and avoidable.32

Yeah Bernstein's great, but I'm dumb - I don't get the takeaway from considering this passage; that we're just experiencing history repeat itself?
 
Again, stop blaming Trump for the virus. He hasn’t been perfect nor was Obama with H1N1. Liberals can be exhausting with their blind hatred.

Let’s stay on task.

No one is blaming Trump for the virus. The preparation and response by our administration was and continues to be awful. The economy is suffering because of it.

H1N1 created nowhere near the economic devastation that this will cause. During the ebola epidemic we were proactive to the extreme. This administration wasted weeks denying that this was a problem and called it a hoax. Claiming that restricting travel to and from China was our best response to this shows an alarming lack of understanding of basic science.

Stop defending an idiot.
 
No one is blaming Trump for the virus. The preparation and response by our administration was and continues to be awful. The economy is suffering because of it.

H1N1 created nowhere near the economic devastation that this will cause. During the ebola epidemic we were proactive to the extreme. This administration wasted weeks denying that this was a problem and called it a hoax. Claiming that restricting travel to and from China was our best response to this shows an alarming lack of understanding of basic science.

Stop defending an idiot.

Very inaccurate statements

You have no idea what the outcome from this will be. I think the death toll will be comparable to that of H1N1.

Even if Trump has done everything perfectly you guys would be pointing to something.

Look forward not backwards, it will serve you well
 
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No one is blaming Trump for the virus. The preparation and response by our administration was and continues to be awful. The economy is suffering because of it.

H1N1 created nowhere near the economic devastation that this will cause. During the ebola epidemic we were proactive to the extreme. This administration wasted weeks denying that this was a problem and called it a hoax. Claiming that restricting travel to and from China was our best response to this shows an alarming lack of understanding of basic science.

Stop defending an idiot.

You can't seriously be suggesting that (as has become routine) Trump wouldn't have been damned if he did and damned if he didn't? And world-wide pandemics don't happen from an alarming lack of understanding of basic science by just one country.
 
No one is blaming Trump for the virus. The preparation and response by our administration was and continues to be awful. The economy is suffering because of it.

H1N1 created nowhere near the economic devastation that this will cause. During the ebola epidemic we were proactive to the extreme. This administration wasted weeks denying that this was a problem and called it a hoax. Claiming that restricting travel to and from China was our best response to this shows an alarming lack of understanding of basic science.

Stop defending an idiot.
Yesterday I read one of Tony de Mello's excellent books, and was reminded how stupid I was for trying to convince people of their ignorance. To paraphrase the idea: don't try to teach a pig to sing, you won't succeed and it will irritate both you and the pig.
 
Just for the sake of conversation, how might you theorize? Totally socialized healthcare in the US? Financial calamity which takes a decade or more to recover from? Massive social unrest, with foundational changes in our political structure? Do we follow the path of other prior world powers (Rome, Spain, the UK) and become just another has-been country?
For healthcare in particular I’m really worried this lockdown will be a death knel for private practice. This has been the trend for the past two decades for almost all medical specialties. By far most physicians will now be employees for huge corporations like Kaiser and their satellites (or in academics).
that means that if you want a job to provide for a family, you had better seal your lips and play ball with whatever agenda your employer decides is important. Salaries for physicians should stay ok for a little while in this system, but not for the next generation.
I’m not sure about social unrest and how bad that might get. I’m not as worried about that yet, but if for some reason the body count gets really high I could see that happening. If a true martial law is enacted then I’m not sure what the public response will be because we’ve never witnessed that in our lives in the USA.
I like the empires you listed, but The USA just controls so much great real estate in North America that it’s hard to see us really sinking too low. Is this virus a good reason for international capital to leave the USA and look for better opportunities elsewhere?
 
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You can't seriously be suggesting that (as has become routine) Trump wouldn't have been damned if he did and damned if he didn't? And world-wide pandemics don't happen from an alarming lack of understanding of basic science by just one country.

Do you think our preparation and response to this was adequate?
 
Do you think our preparation and response to this was adequate?
While I understand your point, and the answer is no, what would you have done differently if you were Emperor?

Quarantine when?
Ramp up production of vents when?
Ramp up masks when?
Get tests from where?

I think Trump has done a poor job of this, but really question what could have been done differently that actually would have mattered. Hindsight is good, but aside from my super anxious wife who bought me n95 masks a year ago, and stocked us for the apocalypse in early January, most people didn’t see this unfolding in this manner.
 
You can't seriously be suggesting that (as has become routine) Trump wouldn't have been damned if he did and damned if he didn't? And world-wide pandemics don't happen from an alarming lack of understanding of basic science by just one country.

100%

I’m not going to sit here and say this was masterfully planned and carried out. But he has done a lot more than Obama, and that’s not taking a shot at Obama

Was Obama wrong for not instituting social distancing? Would it have saved more lives? Who knows. But we lost 12,500 lives and the TRUE mortality rate will be comparable. Anyone who thinks we’ve only had 28k COVID cases is fooling themselves

At any rate, if you guys want a “bash Trump” aka political thread, make a new one. I’m here for blades/others opinions on stocks/markets
 
Wow 7 icu tubes in one shift is up there with the busiest I've ever encountered. Every icu bed in NY will be full in a week if this the case...

All our ICUs are already full. We are keeping these tubed patients on the floors/stepdown areas until those fill up
 
While I understand your point, and the answer is no, what would you have done differently if you were Emperor?

Quarantine when?
Ramp up production of vents when?
Ramp up masks when?
Get tests from where?

I think Trump has done a poor job of this, but really question what could have been done differently that actually would have mattered. Hindsight is good, but aside from my super anxious wife who bought me n95 masks a year ago, and stocked us for the apocalypse in early January, most people didn’t see this unfolding in this manner.

Couldn’t agree more.

Everyone here is acting like they’re Nostradamus

It’s easy to go back in time and say what one “should’ve done”. All you guys sound like plaintiff Med mal attorneys

Let’s focus on the future and winning the fight
 
I am optimistic that a treatment will be forthcoming by the summer. Let's not forget the antivirals out there are being tested now. The vaccine will be available next season because TRUMP is throwing billions at the project.

The market will turn up once we have a vaccine or a real, effective treatment. Until then the panic and loss of economic activity will lead to lower stock prices.
@BLADEMDA, we can’t even treat male pattern baldness (a disease afflicting millions if not billions). How do you seriously believe we are we gonna treat COVID by the end of the summer?
 
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