The ultimate COVID thread

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Where are these mythical FEMA masks?
Some of them have been delivered to New York hospitals, others have gone elsewhere in the country.

FEMA is also delivering ventilators to New York hospitals, others have gone elsewhere in the country.
 
This has been a depression in the making for several years now, if not decades. The economy was terrible before this virus started, you were just too high on the stock market coolaid to realize it. This is easily proven by the fact that all the companies are already broke the first month of the crisis! What took the fed 9 months to do in 2009 they did in 2 WEEKS! The people are broke. to top it off, everyone is getting bailed out by a broke government. Again, this all took just a few weeks to develop.

But yes, you are right, people who think things are just going back to normal are delusional. Society will change a lot now that there is a deadly virus out there that can be easily transmitted by close contacts. A big restructuring of the economy will be necessary.

I feel like you have not read anything I have posted the last decade about the economy because none of it had anything to do with a stock price.

As for companies being in trouble financially, yes that is what happens. They don't sit around on 1-2 years of cash reserves. That doesn't mean their business was unhealthy, just that it is not normal business practice. That doesn't mean the economy was some joke, merely that companies have never been rewarded for holding on to lots of extra cash.
 
https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Screen-Shot-2020-03-27-at-6.38.09-AM.png
 
I feel like you have not read anything I have posted the last decade about the economy because none of it had anything to do with a stock price.

As for companies being in trouble financially, yes that is what happens. They don't sit around on 1-2 years of cash reserves. That doesn't mean their business was unhealthy, just that it is not normal business practice. That doesn't mean the economy was some joke, merely that companies have never been rewarded for holding on to lots of extra cash.

What is supposed to happen in a capitalist system is that those who do save for a rainy day should enjoy the fruit available during an economic disruption...Picking up competitors' market share and assets at firesale prices. What should not happen is those who behaved imprudently should be bailed out by the public. That is what happened during the GFC of 2008. It is what will be happening now for some. How can anyone rationalize bailing out cruise lines and hotels as anything other than corporate robbing of the public treasury?
 
What is supposed to happen in a capitalist system is that those who do save for a rainy day should enjoy the fruit available during an economic disruption...Picking up competitors' market share and assets at firesale prices. What should not happen is those who behaved imprudently should be bailed out by the public. That is what happened during the GFC of 2008. It is what will be happening now for some. How can anyone rationalize bailing out cruise lines and hotels as anything other than corporate robbing of the public treasury?

I have never been on a cruise ship in my life, have no desire to do so, and would be totally fine if they went out of business. They aren't even American companies. Hotels don't really need a bailout but I can see why they would want one.
 
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This is the definition of a *****, somebody who doesn't learn even from the obvious. They should have looked at what happened in the UK, when they tried playing the same games.
No argument. It just kills me here in SC. I look at what our previous governor did with the Biblical flood we had or the bad hurricane or that Roof asshat. Then I compare it to our current douche canoe governor and it makes me angry.
 

It’s because the Idiot and his merry band of sycophants have made a political calculation...not a humanitarian or economic calculation. If the Idiot wants to hold onto power he has to hope that the “red” and “purple” states don’t turn into outbreak zones. In the meantime thousands of people will die and healthcare workers will risk their health while the sycophants and their billionaire cronies sequester themselves in their mansions.

It’s a last gasp gamble by an Idiot.
 
No argument. It just kills me here in SC. I look at what our previous governor did with the Biblical flood we had or the bad hurricane or that Roof asshat. Then I compare it to our current douche canoe governor and it makes me angry.
This is where it's coming from: Opinion | The Road to Coronavirus Hell Was Paved by Evangelicals

We should get back to true separation of Church and State, like our Founders did. People who have doubts are smarter than people who have all the answers.
 
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No argument. It just kills me here in SC. I look at what our previous governor did with the Biblical flood we had or the bad hurricane or that Roof asshat. Then I compare it to our current douche canoe governor and it makes me angry.
I just like that you, like me, use the term "douche canoe"
 
The reward that companies should get for holding a rainy day fund is not going out of business during downturns.

from a capitalism point of view that is true, but as a society we have determined that some businesses and industries are too important to let flounder because it hurts too many citizens.
 
The real question going forward is that after this is over and we’ve spent multiple trillions of dollars bailing out industries like cruise ships, how will politicians look the American public in the eye and tell them that we can’t afford to provide some kind of universal healthcare? How is that going to happen?
 
The real question going forward is that after this is over and we’ve spent multiple trillions of dollars bailing out industries like cruise ships, how will politicians look the American public in the eye and tell them that we can’t afford to provide some kind of universal healthcare? How is that going to happen?
So first they let us die, then they'll cut the survivors' salaries, then they'll complain that they don't have enough good doctors, because intelligent people will be doing something better with their lives. 😆

Where have I seen this before...?
 
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The longer this lasts, the higher the psychological and financial repercussions. People who experienced the Great Depression in the 1930s became supersavers for life. At least short-term, a lot more Americans will save money for future black swans.
Let's hope so and let's hope it lasts longer than short term.
 
Yup. My father was homeless and hungry multiple times during the depression. Affected him for life.
Probably why we paid down most debt after WW2 after the Great Depression finally ended. Unfortunately the country now thinks we aren't broke and won't do the same.
 
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Yup. My father was homeless and hungry multiple times during the depression. Affected him for life.

https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

At least your father was alive.

“From 1929 to 1933, in the darkest years of the great depression when people were eating far less, life expectancy increased by 6 years.“

That's what I think about when people say "the cure is worse than the virus" or that a repeat great depression is worse than 50,000, 100,000, whatever thousand deaths.
 
This has been a depression in the making for several years now, if not decades. The economy was terrible before this virus started, you were just too high on the stock market coolaid to realize it. This is easily proven by the fact that all the companies are already broke the first month of the crisis! What took the fed 9 months to do in 2009 they did in 2 WEEKS! The people are broke. to top it off, everyone is getting bailed out by a broke government. Again, this all took just a few weeks to develop.

But yes, you are right, people who think things are just going back to normal are delusional. Society will change a lot now that there is a deadly virus out there that can be easily transmitted by close contacts. A big restructuring of the economy will be necessary.
I get a warm fuzzy feeling to occasionally see there are at least a few others that realize what a house of cards this consumer, debt driven, trade deficit, money printing economy is. A totally propped up facade.
 
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Yes. The family that his parents left behind all died in the Holocaust.

Sorry, I think I missed a portion of the conversation if you were talking about your father and the effects of the holocaust. Didn't mean for my post to be in response to that. More of a general response to economics vs health debate seemingly going on in the U.S.
 
@crash2500 To add, due to outsourcing, most mask production happens outside the USA in places like China. Because we don't have significant domestic production, we need government policy to encourage production of necessary goods in the United States, which is something that Donald Trump campaigned on and has been working towards, via executive order, legislation, and trade negotiation. Reversing the outsourcing trend takes years to decades to accomplish.
It's a backwards way of fixing the trade deficit which exists from bad government policy and doesn't need more bad policy. It just needs to eliminate the original bad policy which is massive debt. On a simple level you can only consume what you produce to remain in balance. The idea that you can have a consumer economy based consuming more than you produce with the different made up by debt is fool's math. If you are living off of debt somebody has to be making up the difference between consumption and production, ie the trade deficit. There's just about next to nothing that government involvement doesn't screw up.
 
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What is supposed to happen in a capitalist system is that those who do save for a rainy day should enjoy the fruit available during an economic disruption...Picking up competitors' market share and assets at firesale prices. What should not happen is those who behaved imprudently should be bailed out by the public. That is what happened during the GFC of 2008. It is what will be happening now for some. How can anyone rationalize bailing out cruise lines and hotels as anything other than corporate robbing of the public treasury?
Government screws up the market place, and then people want more government to fix "capitalism." Government does have a role to play, but it's to encourage free market solutions such as breaking up monopolies, not to discourage capitalism. The country was founded on getting government out of the way, but the incredibly misinformed are running the asylum.
 
It's a backwards way of fixing the trade deficit which exists from bad government policy and doesn't need more bad policy. It just needs to eliminate the original bad policy which is massive debt. On a simple level you can only consume what you produce to remain in balance. The idea that you can have a consumer economy based consuming from than you produce with the different made up by debt is fool's math. If you are living off of debt somebody has to be making up the difference between consumption and production, ie the trade deficit. There's just about next to nothing that government involvement doesn't screw up.
Americans will never give up our way of life. Eventually if we won’t produce enough we will just have to use our strong military to take somebody else’s stuff....
 
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Americans will never give up our way of life. Eventually if we won’t produce enough we will just have to use our strong military to take somebody else’s stuff....

No. We will be forced to give up the "green new Deal" and use the resources we actually have in abundance: Coal and Natural Gas. Quality of life will deteriorate somewhat but not much worse than Greece or Italy. Those countries have too much debt and really don't produce enough GDP.
 
“Unlimited QE & emergency liquidity programs should see the Fed balance sheet double in size over 2020,” Mark Cabana, rates strategist at Bank of America Global Research, said in a note.




The Fed had originally indicated it was going to add $700 billion to its bond portfolio — $500 billion in Treasurys and $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. However, it switched earlier this week to an open-ended program in response to tumult in financial markets.

Wall Street now anticipates the balance sheet could hit $10 trillion this year as the Fed affirms its whatever--it-takes commitment to softening the coronavirus blow. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told NBC’s “TODAY” show Thursday that the central bank will “aggressively and forthrightly” continue its efforts and will not “run out of ammunition.”

That means the balance sheet likely will hit $7 trillion by June, or about a $2.5 trillion gain from its previous peak, according to Citigroup. Ultimately, Wall Street forecasts are increasingly looking for a $10 trillion balance sheet that would signal a $4.5 trillion expansion, greater than the $3.7 trillion growth during and after the financial crisis.

Critics have worried about the possibility of inflation resulting from all that extra cash in the system, though it hasn’t been a problem since the asset purchases started in late 2008.

“Markets will have learned well from the 2008 experience that this increase in balance sheet size is not inflationary in any near-term sense,” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note. “In fact, the sharp drop in demand and prices for certain services and energy implies a significantly lower trajectory for both core and headline inflation.”
 
what happens right now if they can't pay rent? Do you think they will be evicted by someone that has literally nobody else that can move in and do anything?

not paying rent during a normal time would get you evicted because someone else will take your spot. That is not happening.
Many of those places are owned by corporate owners that have large mortgages on the property. If they don't get paid they fall behind on their payments and go out of business as they lose their properties to foreclosure. They'll need to collect that rent eventually in full or go under, and it's not like business will suddenly double once this is all over. More likely people will be engaging in belt tightening until the virus passes, so the landlords will likely go under followed by the business in their properties or vice versa depending on who has more cash. This is very similar to what occurred in 2008, where there was a cycle created by several different factors that feed into each other on complex ways, resulting in mass corporate property vacancies and foreclosures
 
I smell a rat. It's just a hunch, but it appears the numbers of celebrities, athletes, and politicians testing positive is disproportionately too high for the total number of cases. These are high priority/privileged people with access to testing and I'm hearing just too many positives to believe we only have 100,000 cases. My hunch is that number is not just a little low, but very low, meaning we may be further along on the way to the apex, lower death rate, lower total deaths, etc. We'll see.
 
I smell a rat. It's just a hunch, but it appears the numbers of celebrities, athletes, and politicians testing positive is disproportionately too high for the total number of cases. These are high priority/privileged people with access to testing and I'm hearing just too many positives to believe we only have 100,000 cases. My hunch is that number is not just a little low, but very low, meaning we may be further along on the way to the apex, lower death rate, lower total deaths, etc. We'll see.
The Diamond Princess is a good proxy for total infections vs deaths in an adult population, as every single person on board was tested. You can extrapolate mortality from there
 
The Diamond Princess is a good proxy for total infections vs deaths in an adult population, as every single person on board was tested. You can extrapolate mortality from there

I’m not sure the Diamond Princess is a good proxy at all. Maybe it gives you some intrinsic information about the virus, but remember the issue all along has been one of capacity. In the scenario where you flood capacity, you have a better chance at survival early in the disease progression before the healthcare system gets overwhelmed.
 
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Our local hospitals each have only a handful of cases but a CEO at one of the hospitals (not mine) sent a surge memo telling staff to expect most of the beds to be occupied by COVID patients in 3 weeks.
 
I’m not sure the Diamond Princess is a good proxy at all. Maybe it gives you some intrinsic information about the virus, but remember the issue all along has been one of capacity. In the scenario where you flood capacity, you have a better chance at survival early in the disease progression before the healthcare system gets overwhelmed.
Just a medical student, but I've been reading about the terrible mortality rates for those on vents in the ICU. What exactly are we doing besides giving oxygen that is improving mortality rates in the hospital? I'm just trying to figure out what exactly are the consequences of overwhelming the healthcare system.
 
Just a medical student, but I've been reading about the terrible mortality rates for those on vents in the ICU. What exactly are we doing besides giving oxygen that is improving mortality rates in the hospital? I'm just trying to figure out what exactly are the consequences of overwhelming the healthcare system.
 
Just a medical student, but I've been reading about the terrible mortality rates for those on vents in the ICU. What exactly are we doing besides giving oxygen that is improving mortality rates in the hospital? I'm just trying to figure out what exactly are the consequences of overwhelming the healthcare system.

While ICUs and wards are filled with Covid patients, the usual amount of small bowel perforations, threatened rupture AAAs, STEMIs, CVAs, fractured hips, GSWs/trauma, etc, will still be rolling into the ER and needing beds.
 
While ICUs and wards are filled with Covid patients, the usual amount of small bowel perforations, threatened rupture AAAs, STEMIs, CVAs, fractured hips, GSWs/trauma, etc, will still be rolling into the ER and needing beds.
Yeah good point. Forgot about that completely. Hopefully a lot of the unnecessary hospitalizations/defensive medicine BS can be sifted out.
 
Yeah good point. Forgot about that completely. Hopefully a lot of the unnecessary hospitalizations/defensive medicine BS can be sifted out.


Unnecessary is a nebulous term. Currently we’ve stopped elective procedures like gastric bypasses and joint replacements but the patients think they are necessary.
 
Unnecessary is a nebulous term. Currently we’ve stopped elective procedures like gastric bypasses and joint replacements but the patients think they are necessary.
In a perfect world those who pay can get what they want, when they want. We are becoming a less perfect world with this whole pandemic thing, though. In a less than perfect world those who get what they need, when they need it, will have to do, for now.
 
Is anyone transitioning into CC during these times? Our cardiac team will be managing a lot of these patients in the CC setting and we are likely to expand and incorporate general anesthesiologists with the appropriate skill set- mostly due to need.

Hard to balance personal safety and duties as a physician.

We have dedicated COVID ICU’s currently.
 
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