The ultimate COVID thread

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RadsWFA1900 said:
How the hell does that even make sense. How are trhey offering that to people while in the same breath taking cutting salaries of docs currently working there, withholding 401K contributions, and suspending bonuses. What the hell?
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My offer was $3000 for 12 hour shift, travel, food, and a Marriott. It's locum short term work. You have your established group and salaries, and then this crazy short term upswing in demand. They are going to have to pay to find some locums from wherever to drop everything, come to NY to work in absolute hell tight now, and then as soon as it's over back to a normal hospital, it's thank you and see ya, don't let the door hit ya on the way out. Other than volunteers which I admire but maybe think are a little crazy in this, it's going to cost money to plug the holes.
 
RadsWFA1900 said:
How the hell does that even make sense. How are trhey offering that to people while in the same breath taking cutting salaries of docs currently working there, withholding 401K contributions, and suspending bonuses. What the hell?
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It's pretty normal for a locums guy to work side by side with an equivalent employee who's earning a lot less money. It's just the way the market works.
 
www.the-sun.com

Cops fear rise in burglaries as coronavirus spikes and shops get boarded up

COPS are “on high alert” for a rise in burglaries and looting during the coronavirus crisis as scores of shops are shut across the US. Police are reportedly worried about a possible breakdown in la…
www.the-sun.com www.the-sun.com

NBA shut down 3 weeks ago and the general economy began shutting down a half to one week later roughly. It appears we are about on schedule for the guy who guessed civil unrest beginning after about one month. Perfect storm ingredients. People are sensing it. They are not buying that plywood for decoration.
 
good sign italy and spain deaths/cases are going down. hopefully it'll be over soon for them. we should be downtrending in a couple weeks if we follow thier curves
 
anbuitachi said:
good sign italy and spain deaths/cases are going down. hopefully it'll be over soon for them. we should be downtrending in a couple weeks if we follow thier curves
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People keep saying that, but didn't Italy impose way more severe restrictions than 99% of the US has done?
 
anbuitachi said:
good sign italy and spain deaths/cases are going down. hopefully it'll be over soon for them. we should be downtrending in a couple weeks if we follow thier curves
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What I don't understand about this whole situation in Europe, especially their extremely high death rate per capita, is why it's Trump's fault it's so bad there?
 
RadsWFA1900 said:
How the hell does that even make sense. How are trhey offering that to people while in the same breath taking cutting salaries of docs currently working there, withholding 401K contributions, and suspending bonuses. What the hell?
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Depends on your hospital and who actually signs your paycheck, I guess. AMCs might be cutting back, but hospitals are desperate. I’m not in a red hot zone, but I’m close and the ICUs are crazy right now. They need all the help they can get. I can’t even imagine what it’s like at some of the hospitals in NYC right now.

Sometimes events like these provide opportunities to those willing to put in the work. It’s like the forest analogy...sometimes you need to burn down a forest to allow new and stronger trees to grow. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the AMCs that sat on their hands during the crisis. Hospitals will remember. Are hospitals going to continue to want more control over their staff in the future? Are hospitals going to be interested in going back to a small private practice that has a vested interest in the health of the hospital and community that they live in?
 
anbuitachi said:
whut? who said its trumps fault?
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People on this forum are saying that high death rates are because of Trump mismanaging the crisis in the United States, yet the USA death rate is on par with Germany, which is touted as being the pinnacle of disease management.

If Spain and Italy and UK are worse than the USA, and the USA is on par with Germany, then Trump's doing a pretty good job despite the naysayers here.
 
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Mikkel said:
What I don't understand about this whole situation in Europe, especially their extremely high death rate per capita, is why it's Trump's fault it's so bad there?
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Stop injecting Trump into every single response in every thread. Stop.
 
Stocks are down (as expected) because the Covid 19 curve has not flattened yet and we had a big bounce over a short period of time. We should gradually drift down to 2200 again. I don't know whether 2200 will hold or we go even lower but I'll be buying as we approach 2200 as I think the snap back rally by the end of April will be enough to get the S and P 500 over 2500 again.


www.cnbc.com

El-Erian says he wouldn't buy into market yet, but offers a plan for those who feel they must

"Whatever cash you have, divide it over five installments," Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC on Wednesday, suggesting dollar-cost averaging into the market over several months.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
BLADEMDA said:
Stocks are down (as expected) because the Covid 19 curve has not flattened yet and we had a big bounce over a short period of time. We should gradually drift down to 2200 again. I don't know whether 2200 will hold or we go even lower but I'll be buying as we approach 2200 as I think the snap back rally by the end of April will be enough to get the S and P 500 over 2500 again.


www.cnbc.com

El-Erian says he wouldn't buy into market yet, but offers a plan for those who feel they must

"Whatever cash you have, divide it over five installments," Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC on Wednesday, suggesting dollar-cost averaging into the market over several months.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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the more specific your prediction, the more likely it is to be wrong.

How about this, stocks are down because of this virus and will eventually rebound and 10 or 30 years from now will be way, way, way higher.
 
Mman said:
the more specific your prediction, the more likely it is to be wrong.

How about this, stocks are down because of this virus and will eventually rebound and 10 or 30 years from now will be way, way, way higher.
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Oh no. stocks will rebound by summer. Please feel free to call me on it if I am wrong but by rebound I mean 2700 or 2800 S and P.
Once the fear/panic subsides the stock market will easily stabilize at 2500. That will occur once the Covid 19 caseload peaks then flattens out. This entire bear market sell-off was due to Covid 19. Once we can see past Covid 19 (by summer) there will be a partial rebound. It won't be a full rebound because the economy needs time to recover and that will take several more quarters.

Now, you could be predicting that Covid 19 will not peak by May 01 or that the virus will rebound quickly again in July causing a second wave. THose predictions do affect the stock market levels. The bottom line is that the market is tied to Covid 19 more than the layoffs and unemployment numbers.

The massive QE and zero percent interest rates will drive stocks higher. In the past, such a move would be very inflationary as well but the Fed is gambling that won't happen in 2020 or even early 2021.
 
Dow drops more than 800 points as worries over coronavirus intensify

“The low we hit in the middle of March … I would bet that low will get taken out,” Gundlach said in an investor webcast on Tuesday. “The market has really made it back to a resistance zone. ... Take out the low of march and then we’ll get a more enduring low.”
The coronavirus pandemic has caused a nationwide shutdown of the economy, halting business production and leaving millions of American workers unemployed. The unprecedented societal disruption has caused financial distress and volatility never seen before.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Dow drops more than 800 points as worries over coronavirus intensify

“The low we hit in the middle of March … I would bet that low will get taken out,” Gundlach said in an investor webcast on Tuesday. “The market has really made it back to a resistance zone. ... Take out the low of march and then we’ll get a more enduring low.”
The coronavirus pandemic has caused a nationwide shutdown of the economy, halting business production and leaving millions of American workers unemployed. The unprecedented societal disruption has caused financial distress and volatility never seen before.
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its very weird bc past 2 days spiked, despite the corona news sucking as well...
 
anbuitachi said:
its very weird bc past 2 days spiked, despite the corona news sucking as well...
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Did you miss it when I wrote this on Monday?

"The spike up is big boys crushing the options market for all the people who shorted or hedged when it was too late. Once those are cleared out the S&P at the very least is going to test the lows of this month before a longer term move higher. "
 
vector2 said:
Did you miss it when I wrote this on Monday?

"The spike up is big boys crushing the options market for all the people who shorted or hedged when it was too late. Once those are cleared out the S&P at the very least is going to test the lows of this month before a longer term move higher. "
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how does that work?
 
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anbuitachi said:
how does that work?
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Large, large scale algorithmic trading by institutions and other professional shops. For the average investor, the way the "machinery" that moves the day to day market works might as well be magic

en.m.wikipedia.org

Flash Boys - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
BLADEMDA said:
  • Goldman Sachs has revised its coronavirus projections, seeing an even bigger impact on GDP and employment.
  • The firm sees the jobless rate topping out at 15% and GDP sagging by a record 34% in the second quarter.
  • That will be followed, though, by a 19% rebound in the third quarter that would be the highest on record, Goldman said


So, when do I buy more stocks? I still think the market will re-test near 2200 at some point in the next 4 weeks. I could easily be wrong and instead we trade in the 2500-2650 range until May. If we do not re-test 2200 then the market will likely stabilize in May before going higher in June. The key is to keep track of the case load/death rate from Covid 19 and look for a leveling off. Once the market smells "the worst is over" stocks likely go higher to 2800.
If I miss buying equities in that short interval of 2500-2650 then I will buy at 2800 once the vast majority of investors/traders see the "all clear sign."
Click to expand...


Warren Buffet on LTCM:

“But to make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and did need.


If you have won the game, quit playing.
 
anbuitachi said:
stocks slightly down today due to trump saying its going to be painful 2 weeks? whut
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Stocks go up and stocks go down, and Wall Street then tags some reason to it that 99% of the time has nothing to do with it. You'll drive yourself nuts following all the nonsense said about why stocks went up or down. Somebody actually said stocks went down after one of Trump's spatt with a reporter as if there are people watching him belittle a reporter and then think, quick, call my broker and sell.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Oh no. stocks will rebound by summer. Please feel free to call me on it if I am wrong but by rebound I mean 2700 or 2800 S and P.
Once the fear/panic subsides the stock market will easily stabilize at 2500. That will occur once the Covid 19 caseload peaks then flattens out. This entire bear market sell-off was due to Covid 19. Once we can see past Covid 19 (by summer) there will be a partial rebound. It won't be a full rebound because the economy needs time to recover and that will take several more quarters.

Now, you could be predicting that Covid 19 will not peak by May 01 or that the virus will rebound quickly again in July causing a second wave. THose predictions do affect the stock market levels. The bottom line is that the market is tied to Covid 19 more than the layoffs and unemployment numbers.

The massive QE and zero percent interest rates will drive stocks higher. In the past, such a move would be very inflationary as well but the Fed is gambling that won't happen in 2020 or even early 2021.
Click to expand...
The Fed isn't gambling. It will be inflationary but they have no choice. As a few correctly said since 2008, the government and Fed have dug such a hole that the Fed has to permanently keep rates low and can never stop doing QE, which has been absolutely correct.
 
anbuitachi said:
its very weird bc past 2 days spiked, despite the corona news sucking as well...
Click to expand...
I'll repeat, IGNORE THE MEANINGLESS REASONS AT THE END OF A DAY WHY THE MARKET WENT UP OR DOWN. It's all nonsense to make people feel better that there was a specific reason for movement they can't explain. We saw a very typical 3 day bounce after a severely oversold crash that happened too fast. Typically those bounces are short lived and then pull back. And yes, I did say this a few days ago. Ignore the TV idiots. You're better off getting knowledge from a random cab driver.
 
dr doze said:
Warren Buffet on LTCM:

“But to make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and did need.


If you have won the game, quit playing.
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how though, when you retire do you put your money under the mattress?
 
JobsFan said:
how though, when you retire do you put your money under the mattress?
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No. Because interest rates are so low retirees are still being advised to stay invested in stocks. In fact, depending on the withdrawal rate some nearing retirement are still 50% or more in equities. That's my plan as well if interest rates stay this low. 50% exposure to equities even in retirement.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Oh no. stocks will rebound by summer. Please feel free to call me on it if I am wrong but by rebound I mean 2700 or 2800 S and P.
Click to expand...

Come on now, I could pull out about 300 specific posts you've made about various future S&P levels over the last 5 years that were comically wrong. That's just how it works. If you want to be correct, don't be too specific.
 
Mman said:
Come on now, I could pull out about 300 specific posts you've made about various future S&P levels over the last 5 years that were comically wrong. That's just how it works. If you want to be correct, don't be too specific.
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yes i think in the next year, sp 500 will be somewhere between 1500 and 4000
 
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This is starting to look more and more like an NYC problem more than anything else. The rest of us have a lot more room to socially distance.
 
6s1c8efymyp41.jpg
 
anbuitachi said:
no country in the world has surpassed 1k dead per day in the official count. not sure why USA will. perhaps we will but most likely not
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Because only parts of the US are under quarantine and the rest are free to do as they will. I mean, let's be real, even the ones on quarantine are out there doing what they want anyway. This is America.
 
Last edited:
RadsWFA1900 said:
How the hell does that even make sense. How are trhey offering that to people while in the same breath taking cutting salaries of docs currently working there, withholding 401K contributions, and suspending bonuses. What the hell?
Click to expand...
Quit and come back on board working in the ICU. Supply and demand. Think I am gonna play a game between hospitals and see how high a rate I can get. Hazard pay.
 
That 3k offer for 8 hours icu work is shooting fish in a barrel.

Give me 20 syringes of roc, 20 tubes and an n95 , I'll sit there and intubate all comers. Piss in the bin. Same as my day job
 
anonperson said:
There will be some panic as the death rate peaks. Even with the stimulus package, the rising numbers will scare investors and the market.
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The market looks very scary right now. I sure hope that 2200 holds or we will quickly drop to 2,000. Now, just to be clear I am buying equities heavily at 2200 and won't have that much dry powder left to buy more if we go to 2,000.

Traders are terrified the unemployment will be so high and the GDP so low that the banks will have to write off many loans. Thus, Banks are getting hit extra hard compared to the typical S and P 500 company. I will be buying the largest U.S. Banks like I did in 2008/early 2009 because this time they are much better capitalized. Bank stocks will likely be down 50%+ this year by Friday.

Of course, I am trying to pick up Verizon, Starbucks, Shopify, American Express, Visa, Microsoft, Facebook, and others during the next re-test of 2200.
I am thinking about Square as well since it should get hit pretty hard. Square at $40-$42 is really tempting as that represents a 50% drop the recent high.
 
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Mman said:
Come on now, I could pull out about 300 specific posts you've made about various future S&P levels over the last 5 years that were comically wrong. That's just how it works. If you want to be correct, don't be too specific.
Click to expand...

That's fine. This is a major correction like 2008/2009. We are talking 50% drop from many good companies. How smart do you have to be to buy those companies with a good balance sheet then wait 12 months to make 30-50%?

This isn't like the past 5 years. This is like 2008 when even a bit early to the game still resulted in phenomenal gains over the next 5 years. Believe what you want but this is a once in a decade opportunity to truly make a lot of money over a short period of time.
 
Newtwo said:
Blade what are you doing man? Have you heard of catching a falling knife? Good luck...
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I caught that knife in January 2009. The same thing is repeating right now. I hope you can buy in at the very bottom because most everyone else can't.
 
BLADEMDA said:
I caught that knife in January 2009. The same thing is repeating right now. I hope you can buy in at the very bottom because most everyone else can't.
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No one know the bottom buddy.

When the market starts to make higher highs then maybe we're turning. We're not there yet.

If youre only putting in enough and can handle the loss over 20 years that's fine. That's what I'm doing. But gambling big money right now will see you devoured
 
They can inject as much money as they want but until the American people are able to get out there consuming, any rally will lack conviction. And, as they say, the only way to buy at the bottom is to buy all the way down.
 
Survey of expert economists on Covid19 policy. The vast majority agree on: "Question B: Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk."
 
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