Why can't wolves vote with villagers? There's no reason why there can't be wolf votes on sloth (considering sloth flipped village) and almost the entire village was on MsP yesterday including you
Sure they can, but if we take the genny wagon as a village clear, then anyone not on it is in the POE, and looking at final votes from then on, leaves the 4 of you
Sure they can, but if we take the genny wagon as a village clear, then anyone not on it is in the POE, and looking at final votes from then on, leaves the 4 of you
So with this switch in your feelings on the ace wagon, who is your strongest wolf read (saw POE, but where do you think we should be voting in the next 4 min?)
Strange, after having the yeet on me for so long to re-evaluate and suddenly suggest that we are more likely wolf-bait. While I appreciate the thought I am unsure of the logic that brought you to the conclusion?
So with this switch in your feelings on the ace wagon, who is your strongest wolf read (saw POE, but where do you think we should be voting in the next 4 min?)
Not looking at Lainey & Ace's votes, looking at the wagons
Sure they can, but if we take the genny wagon as a village clear, then anyone not on it is in the POE, and looking at final votes from then on, leaves the 4 of you
When I clear people on the genny yeet it has to do with how early they were on the yeet and how much they pushed throughout the day, that's why I left lainey on. It's common practice for wolves to tag on to the end of a fellow packmate's vote when they're going down
Strange, after having the yeet on me for so long to re-evaluate and suddenly suggest that we are more likely wolf-bait. While I appreciate the thought I am unsure of the logic that brought you to the conclusion?
Strange, after having the yeet on me for so long to re-evaluate and suddenly suggest that we are more likely wolf-bait. While I appreciate the thought I am unsure of the logic that brought you to the conclusion?
I'm not completely against your POE (except for the part where I'm there). I do think Lainey flipping wolf will more than likely make me look towards alley/plz than ace.
And I'm praying to the WW gods that Shorty isn't a wolf because if she is I don't think I'll ever be able to trust her again.
Do you believe her that she thinks it was a bad NK choice? I’m hesitating to think she’s a wolf with Lainey and Sunny’s village after Lainey pushed cray, sunny pushed cray HARD, and then Dina tied herself to the cray sus late enough at night that there wouldn’t be time to sway other villagers.
There were a lot of other much more yeetable people than Cray and even if pressure was being put on Cray, it didn't seem to be materializing. I'm not sure if the wolves were worried about her sus list or veteran status more than others or what. Not sure if I understand your point about Dina sussing Cray late at night and what that has to do with a Cray NK but this is my tired brain trying its best
I don't love that someone who hasn't really contributed to wolfhunting much at all is trying to sow suspicion on someone who has been busting ass all week, tbh. I think my efforts say a lot.
I gave my attempt at reads for Kras, Alley, and especially Lainey. I will repeat them as they were my highest wolf reads.
Alley: originally I read her as seeming wolfy. I can't distinguish if I felt this way due to her low activity but I felt a lot better about her following her activity that I read through today.
Kras: limited on posts. Most recent post logic after rereading seems decent assuming Lainey flips village however I find it strange how they only just posted this just now, why the wait? Also assuming the logic is sound does that mean I can expect to see the yeet vote shift over from me after the vote results are announced.
I've been outlining Lainey for the last two days so I really don't feel anymore needed to be said following my most recent slew of quotes and analysis yesterday.
Still working through others just limited on time with this vote being a 12 hour one. Was tempted to ask for the extra time but didn't want to risk another shift over from Lainey in that time when she is my top suspect.
I don't love that someone who hasn't really contributed to wolfhunting much at all is trying to sow suspicion on someone who has been busting ass all week, tbh. I think my efforts say a lot.
I gave my attempt at reads for Kras, Alley, and especially Lainey. I will repeat them as they were my highest wolf reads.
Alley: originally I read her as seeming wolfy. I can't distinguish if I felt this way due to her low activity but I felt a lot better about her following her activity that I read through today.
Kras: limited on posts. Most recent post logic after rereading seems decent assuming Lainey flips village however I find it strange how they only just posted this just now, why the wait? Also assuming the logic is sound does that mean I can expect to see the yeet vote shift over from me after the vote results are announced.
I've been outlining Lainey for the last two days so I really don't feel anymore needed to be said following my most recent slew of quotes and analysis yesterday.
Still working through others just limited on time with this vote being a 12 hour one. Was tempted to ask for the extra time but didn't want to risk another shift over from Lainey in that time when she is my top suspect.
I was going to ask why this is true for Lainey and not ace but after rereading your post I understand where you’re coming from. Color-coded with people not on the genny vote in gray to help myself think about this. In the event that Lainey flips village (didn’t put her in green to avoid causing confusion if people are skimming over this):
Kras and ace are on sloth, which particularly interests me because I’ve been wondering since kras switched her read of the ace wagon tonight if her push for ace earlier was a bus she never intended to follow through on...
I don’t see any issue with kras and ace voting sloth together. I’d have to check the exact times of votes since there was a lot of -minute ****ery, but I could buy there being a third wolf on ace prepared to switch if necessary - it does feel unlikely given what I remember of the last-minute chaos, but as others have pointed out there may just be two wolves remaining, especially considering from a balancing perspective that they had an extra kill.
Considering what a large margin MsP ended up with, and that most people who switched their votes announced ahead of time that they would so wolves could have planned for it, I wouldn’t rule out any combo of wolves based on D3 voting. If Lainey were to flip village it would be even less informative since the two leading wagons would be village - lots of lip service to the ace vote but it wasn’t a likely yeet at any point given how suspect we were of MsP and LaineyLou.
TLDR I don’t agree and I think I want to look harder at kras, especially if Lainey flips village.
Writeup will probably have been posted by now so I’m about to find out how suspicious I am of kras
Kras and ace are on sloth, which particularly interests me because I’ve been wondering since kras switched her read of the ace wagon tonight if her push for ace earlier was a bus she never intended to follow through on...
I have been wondering this too, and with Lainey's flip now, kras has moved WAY up in my POE. And I'm convinced that the lip service from Ace about how he was going to try harder and play better was just that - lip service.
Kras and ace are on sloth, which particularly interests me because I’ve been wondering since kras switched her read of the ace wagon tonight if her push for ace earlier was a bus she never intended to follow through on...
D2 I was thinking all the Ace sus was just because of his noobishness, but after sloth flipped village and there was a huge push for Ace in the first half of the next day, which then evaporated and I didn't like that which I why I've been sussing him. But rethinking this all now when I have a minute, (and now with the Lainey flip), I wanna look in other directions
Completely caught up. Plan on re-evaluating tomorrow. Too foggy to have a good idea of where I'll start. Falling asleep as I type hoping I don't come back in the morning to 10 pages I need to read during work
In general so far, it kinda feels like many people are trying to switch up their meta, or still establishing one, so there's a lot of static for me in what's been posted so far.
Genny's being a tisch more jokey and chaotic that usual, but nothing that's stuck out to me as particularly sus yet
Dubz is definitely excited to be here...but whether to read that through genny's lens of possibly 3P role, or as any of the potentially NAI reasons April listed, IDK yet
Cray feels the most normal, typical meta, village!cray out of anybody
Are you planning to actually wolf hunt tomorrow, or are you intending to vaguebook when you show up as per the rest of this game? Just checking. You’ve played enough games that you could be contributing a lot more to the village effort than you have been.
Are you planning to actually wolf hunt tomorrow, or are you intending to vaguebook when you show up as per the rest of this game? Just checking. You’ve played enough games that you could be contributing a lot more to the village effort than you have been.
So, I thought about this a lot tonight, and other than the fact that the people who have been NKed thus far are either vets or noob strong players, there's another connection. Nearly all of them openly sussed kras, or pressed her for reads - with the exception of Dubz, who kras tried to yeet. There's a pattern here. People who read kras as wolfy, or people I think kras would consider a threat to her if she's wolf and they're village, end up dead.
AM sussed her. Cray sussed her. Zenge pressed her. Dubz had her as a neutral/???? read and then didn't make it past N1, but again, Dubz is a very strong player and an existential threat to any wolf if she's village (and vice versa).
We've been operating on the assumption that noob wolves are just policy-killing vets, but I think we need to really consider that someone with a lot more experience has been taking out the strongest players first, knowing that a bunch of noobs would be much more likely to misyeet people who are acting super sketchy (like Lainey). There are 2 experienced players left in the game - kras and Dina. I'll talk more at the bottom about why I think kras is more likely than Dina to be wolfing. I want all the quotes I pulled from the killed villagers to be seen first.
Got it narrowed down to Ace, sloth, April, alley, Lou, MsP, please, kras. Honestly doubting on Ace, but will run through him on my read through again. Then I'll give you my final POE.
Kras feels lined up against Dubz here, and I can totally see Kras knowing that the only hope and prayer should would have to make it to endgame with genny gone, is with Dubz and AM dead.
When I wolf I never let any possible NK plans stop me from openly sussing someone on thread. I could explain, but I like the WIFOM to be there, and I always hope to get lucky that village will off them for me. So this could be a wolf Kras thing.
I'm willing to backburner Lou for now based on this. Becoming very sus of Dina, Kras, Please, I think if they are wolves it will be more damaging and if we're wrong hopefully we have a chance to see what's up with Ace or MsP.
That's a good point I considered. But I'm not really sure my pick will make much difference to village. I'm feeling pretty defeated by the lowposters/low analysis people right now.
My sus list hasn't changed much. Lainey, Ace, Kras, Alley, Please, Dina. Not too long a list if 3 wolves left, so decent POE. Problem is several of them it's possible just bad not wolfy play which is hard to tell apart.
Now, there aren't a ton of interactions from Zenge. However, kras wolfed in the first game that Zenge played, and we all saw the kind of effort he made on the last day - including naming the entire pack. He's a strong player and definitely someone who would be a threat to a wolf.
Why do I think kras over Dina?
Look at their contributions to the thread. Dina has been wolfhunting and very active. Kras has been busy, and being busy is NAI, but when she does contribute, it's vague AF. When she's called out on that, like when I asked her for reads earlier and she vaguebooked an answer at me, she just doubles down on being even more vague. Now we're in a situation where it might be MYLO tomorrow, depending on the number of wolves left, and STILL there's no guarantee of any active wolfhunting from her tomorrow, just that she'll "be around."
BOTH of them have VCAs that don't look good. kras voted for Dubz, Sloth, MsP, and Ace tonight but it was clear that he wasn't getting yeeted tonight. Dina voted for April, Ace, MsP, and Lainey. This is why I think it's really important to consider thread contributions in addition to VCA - because VCA doesn't tell you the full story. One of these experienced players made a sketchy vote in the beginning and has been actively wolfhunting since then. One of them has made multiple sketchy votes, hasn't contributed really anything meaningful in the search for wolves (but heavy use of ellipses, I'll give her that), has thrown shade at the people who HAVE been wolfhunting (again, without actually contributing anything of her own), and has the knowledge and experience to know how to manipulate the situation to her benefit.
I think we've given kras a pass for her sketchy meta and because she randed wolf in the last game, but when you go back and look at the evidence, I'm really struck by what I'm seeing. I think if we want to pull out a village win, she needs to go tomorrow.
We've gotten distracted each day by villagers who are playing in a really anti-village way (which is NOT cool) but I just can't get past the fact that people who sus kras die.
So, I thought about this a lot tonight, and other than the fact that the people who have been NKed thus far are either vets or noob strong players, there's another connection. Nearly all of them openly sussed kras, or pressed her for reads - with the exception of Dubz, who kras tried to yeet. There's a pattern here. People who read kras as wolfy, or people I think kras would consider a threat to her if she's wolf and they're village, end up dead.
AM sussed her. Cray sussed her. Zenge pressed her. Dubz had her as a neutral/???? read and then didn't make it past N1, but again, Dubz is a very strong player and an existential threat to any wolf if she's village (and vice versa).
We've been operating on the assumption that noob wolves are just policy-killing vets, but I think we need to really consider that someone with a lot more experience has been taking out the strongest players first, knowing that a bunch of noobs would be much more likely to misyeet people who are acting super sketchy (like Lainey). There are 2 experienced players left in the game - kras and Dina. I'll talk more at the bottom about why I think kras is more likely than Dina to be wolfing. I want all the quotes I pulled from the killed villagers to be seen first.
This is the ISO that was reposted above by Dina.
I think this is a really significant point.
And this.
Now, there aren't a ton of interactions from Zenge. However, kras wolfed in the first game that Zenge played, and we all saw the kind of effort he made on the last day - including naming the entire pack. He's a strong player and definitely someone who would be a threat to a wolf.
Why do I think kras over Dina?
Look at their contributions to the thread. Dina has been wolfhunting and very active. Kras has been busy, and being busy is NAI, but when she does contribute, it's vague AF. When she's called out on that, like when I asked her for reads earlier and she vaguebooked an answer at me, she just doubles down on being even more vague. Now we're in a situation where it might be MYLO tomorrow, depending on the number of wolves left, and STILL there's no guarantee of any active wolfhunting from her tomorrow, just that she'll "be around."
BOTH of them have VCAs that don't look good. kras voted for Dubz, Sloth, MsP, and Ace tonight but it was clear that he wasn't getting yeeted tonight. Dina voted for April, Ace, MsP, and Lainey. This is why I think it's really important to consider thread contributions in addition to VCA - because VCA doesn't tell you the full story. One of these experienced players made a sketchy vote in the beginning and has been actively wolfhunting since then. One of them has made multiple sketchy votes, hasn't contributed really anything meaningful in the search for wolves (but heavy use of ellipses, I'll give her that), has thrown shade at the people who HAVE been wolfhunting (again, without actually contributing anything of her own), and has the knowledge and experience to know how to manipulate the situation to her benefit.
I think we've given kras a pass for her sketchy meta and because she randed wolf in the last game, but when you go back and look at the evidence, I'm really struck by what I'm seeing. I think if we want to pull out a village win, she needs to go tomorrow.
We've gotten distracted each day by villagers who are playing in a really anti-village way (which is NOT cool) but I just can't get past the fact that people who sus kras die.
IDK that this is the smoking gun you think it is, because literally everybody susses me.
And the NK'd folks sussed a lot of people besides me. This logic could apply to you or Dina just as easily
Wasn't meant to be a defense. Just pointing out that your logic about is shaky, and it sounds to me like a wolf trying to push a misyeet after I put you in my POE.
I have been busy and haven't been contributing as much as I should, fo sho, but that's NAI.
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hoping I don't come back in the morning to 10 pages I need to read during work
