USNWR 2020 Rankings Predictions

[meronebib]

Hey everyone! With the USNWR 2020 rankings coming out in a couple of weeks (if they follow the same schedule as previous years), I wanted to see what your predictions were for how the rankings would change this year. I, for one, think that with the current research ranking methodology, Columbia should shoot up quite a few spots, given their recent ~billion dollar donation to the school and hospital.

Also, please, I don't want this to turn into a "you'll get a great education regardless of the rank of your school" or "the ranks are not important, they change all the time" thread. Just thought it would be fun to predict the changes this year and see how our predictions compare to the list coming out in a couple of weeks!

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[965978]

Does private funding really increase the rank of the school? I thought it was mostly just NIH research? FWIW, Mayo got a hefty donation too (hence the name change).

There are some schools that have skyrocketed their MCAT medians (Vanderbilt and Yale) so that might have some effect.

Lastly, I feel like I have to say this. But yes, you’ll get an excellent medical education wherever you go

 

[meronebib]

Does private funding really increase the rank of the school? I thought it was mostly just NIH research? FWIW, Mayo got a hefty donation too (hence the name change).

There are some schools that have skyrocketed their MCAT medians (Vanderbilt and Yale) so that might have some effect.

Lastly, I feel like I have to say this. But yes, you’ll get an excellent medical education wherever you go

Yeah, that was the change they made this year (including private funding) that allowed NYU and Mayo to jump into the top 10! And I'm not sure if Mayo's donation will affect this year's ranking, since they received it at the way end of 2018.

I predict the T10 to be:

1. Harvard
2. Hopkins
3. Columbia
3. NYU
5. Stanford
5. UCSF
7. Penn
8. Mayo
9. UCLA
10. WUSTL

 

[Lucca]

here's the 2019 list for context:

1. Harvard
2. Hopkins
3. NYU
3. Stanford
5. UCSF
6. Mayo
6. Penn
8. UCLA
8. WashU
10. Duke

Here's my prediction (not trying to guess ties):

1. Harvard
2. Hopkins
3. Stanford
4. UCSF
5. NYU
6. Mayo
7. Penn
8. WashU
9. Columbia
10. Yale

Here's how I guessed, if anyone cares, but basically I expect most spots to remain unchanged but the last few (8-10) are historically volatile and those institutions are very close. NYU will drop a few and stabilize somewhere in the T10-15 in the future as Hurricane Sandy money dries up unless it is able to leverage it's newfound status into big faculty hires, big donation campaigns to turn this technical curiosity into a self-fulfilling prophecy:

Spoiler: Nerd stuff

Given the rule change, I suspect that the list won't change too much. It's too much legwork to see how private funding profiles have changed from 2018 to 2019 beyond the big money donations that make headlines. That said, looking at NIH funding for medical schools is pretty straightforward with the NIH Reporter system.

The 2019 rankings most likely used the funding data from FY 2017 as 2018 was barely getting started when the rankings came out in April. Here's the top handful of institutions by NIH funding for FY 2017.

JHU $651,844,903
UCSF $593,909,890
Michigan $521,788,658
Penn $493,869,965
Pitt $485,268,079
Stanford $465,856,075
UW-Seattle $443,367,966
Duke $440,306,575
WashU $435,637,200
Yale $425,247,606
UCSD $424,405,801
UNC-Chapel Hill $419,977,336
Columbia $402,667,654
UCLA $401,246,794
MGH (HMS) $394,465,880
BWH (HMS) $390,450,002

NYU is down at 33 with 233 million.

Here's the top 15 or so institutions by NIH funding for FY 2018

JHU $674,583,550
UCSF $647,880,065
Michigan $552,433,992
Pittsburgh $536,502,831
Penn $511,419,097
Stanford $505,474,358
WashU $486,295,442
Duke $475,338,515
MGH (HMS) $465,776,958
Columbia P&S $464,799,343
UCSD $459,093,333
UW-Seattle $455,841,035
Yale $454,012,666
UNC-Chapel Hill $446,660,231
UCLA $409,733,609
BWH (HMS) $388,928,321

NYU Medicine is down at 26 with 260 million in NIH grants. Here's that same list again for FY 2019. 2019 is in progress so these numbers are comparatively smaller.

Subtracting FY 2017 from FY 2018 to see changes in NIH funding, not exact but rounding by eye:

JHU +20 mill
UCSF +50 mill
Michigan +30 mill
Penn +20 mill
Pitt +50 mill
Stanford +40 mill
WashU +50 mill
Duke +35 mill
Columbia P&S +60 mill
UCSD +30 mill
UW-Seattle +10 mill
Yale +30 mill
UNC-Chapel Hill +30 mill
UCLA +8 mill

HMS has been excluded since in reality it's several institutions all smashed together and has far and away the most NIH funding of any institution (if MGH opened up it's own medical school and NIH $$ were the most important metric for the research ranking, they would instantly be a T10 school....and HMS would still be #1. Process that for a second).

 

[meronebib]

here's the 2019 list for context:

1. Harvard
2. Hopkins
3. NYU
3. Stanford
5. UCSF
6. Mayo
6. Penn
8. UCLA
8. WashU
10. Duke

Here's my prediction (not trying to guess ties):

1. Harvard
2. Hopkins
3. Stanford
4. UCSF
5. NYU
6. Mayo
7. Penn
8. WashU
9. Columbia
10. Yale

Here's how I guessed, if anyone cares, but basically I expect most spots to remain unchanged but the last few (8-10) are historically volatile and those institutions are very close. NYU will drop a few and stabilize somewhere in the T10-15 in the future as Hurricane Sandy money dries up unless it is able to leverage it's newfound status into big faculty hires, big donation campaigns to turn this technical curiosity into a self-fulfilling prophecy:

Spoiler: Nerd stuff

Given the rule change, I suspect that the list won't change too much. It's too much legwork to see how private funding profiles have changed from 2018 to 2019 beyond the big money donations that make headlines. That said, looking at NIH funding for medical schools is pretty straightforward with the NIH Reporter system.

The 2019 rankings most likely used the funding data from FY 2017 as 2018 was barely getting started when the rankings came out in April. Here's the top handful of institutions by NIH funding for FY 2017.

JHU $651,844,903
UCSF $593,909,890
Michigan $521,788,658
Penn $493,869,965
Pitt $485,268,079
Stanford $465,856,075
UW-Seattle $443,367,966
Duke $440,306,575
WashU $435,637,200
Yale $425,247,606
UCSD $424,405,801
UNC-Chapel Hill $419,977,336
Columbia $402,667,654
UCLA $401,246,794
MGH (HMS) $394,465,880
BWH (HMS) $390,450,002

NYU is down at 33 with 233 million.

Here's the top 15 or so institutions by NIH funding for FY 2018

JHU $674,583,550
UCSF $647,880,065
Michigan $552,433,992
Pittsburgh $536,502,831
Penn $511,419,097
Stanford $505,474,358
WashU $486,295,442
Duke $475,338,515
MGH (HMS) $465,776,958
Columbia P&S $464,799,343
UCSD $459,093,333
UW-Seattle $455,841,035
Yale $454,012,666
UNC-Chapel Hill $446,660,231
UCLA $409,733,609
BWH (HMS) $388,928,321

NYU Medicine is down at 26 with 260 million in NIH grants. Here's that same list again for FY 2019. 2019 is in progress so these numbers are comparatively smaller.

Subtracting FY 2017 from FY 2018 to see changes in NIH funding, not exact but rounding by eye:

JHU +20 mill
UCSF +50 mill
Michigan +30 mill
Penn +20 mill
Pitt +50 mill
Stanford +40 mill
WashU +50 mill
Duke +35 mill
Columbia P&S +60 mill
UCSD +30 mill
UW-Seattle +10 mill
Yale +30 mill
UNC-Chapel Hill +30 mill
UCLA +8 mill

HMS has been excluded since in reality it's several institutions all smashed together and has far and away the most NIH funding of any institution (if MGH opened up it's own medical school and NIH $$ were the most important metric for the research ranking, they would instantly be a T10 school....and HMS would still be #1. Process that for a second).

Nice work! I’m surprised Pitt doesnt pull into the top 10 with all its NIH funding.

 

[Lucca]

Nice work! I’m surprised Pitt doesnt pull into the top 10 with all its NIH funding.

Pitt and Michigan medical centers are super well-funded but also are huge and Research $$ / faculty member is weighted the same as total research $$ in the USNWR methodology, which favors places that have a higher concentration of Big Name (TM) faculty with multimillion dollar research empires.Also anyone with an MCAT median below 518 will effectively be penalized in the rankings as it's weighed at 0.13, only 0.02 lower than residency PD ranking.

edit: for anyone who is curious, there is a rly comprehensive list of excel files compiled every yr by a research institute in NC with all sorts of NIH funding data.

 

[manofsteel9]

No offense, but this is the most SDN thing I've seen lmao. Also, the fact that NIH funding can significantly dictate medical school rankings is a bit weird (I understand that they are "research" rankings). IMHO, unless you are pursuing a PhD or MD/PhD, the TOTAL amount of funding from the NIH barely has any effect in providing great medical education and producing good doctors. As long as you go to a school with decent funding and faculty members involved with basic/clinical research, it's more important that you find a mentor conducting a project that you're passionate about, not the richest mentor.

 

[deleted972488]

No offense, but this is the most SDN thing I've seen lmao. Also, the fact that NIH funding can significantly dictate medical school rankings is a bit weird (I understand that they are "research" rankings). IMHO, unless you are pursuing a PhD or MD/PhD, the TOTAL amount of funding from the NIH barely has any effect in providing great medical education and producing good doctors. As long as you go to a school with decent funding and faculty members involved with basic/clinical research, it's more important that you find a mentor conducting a project that you're passionate about, not the richest mentor.

This... and it’s true even and especially if you are pursuing a PhD.

 

[Lucca]

No offense, but this is the most SDN thing I've seen lmao. Also, the fact that NIH funding can significantly dictate medical school rankings is a bit weird (I understand that they are "research" rankings). IMHO, unless you are pursuing a PhD or MD/PhD, the TOTAL amount of funding from the NIH barely has any effect in providing great medical education and producing good doctors. As long as you go to a school with decent funding and faculty members involved with basic/clinical research, it's more important that you find a mentor conducting a project that you're passionate about, not the richest mentor.

Bingo. The PD ranking + match lists mean a lot more for the vast majority of med students.

Even then, the only big differences in research resources are in the T10. Most medical schools will actually have pretty decent research output if research is any part of its mission or if it’s associated with a major academic center or university.