A Lighthouse, A Man, A City...A BioShock WW Game

[Crayola227]

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I’m honestly not sure. I’m worried there’s up to 3 and the night you were rezzed there was also a conversion, but I think that’s the absolute maximum. I’m hoping it’s just 1 to get this done.

Wait, so you think 6 wolves plus a neutral that doesn't count for village numbers? Way too high. And I typically overestimate the numbers.

 

[kaydubs]

Day 8: Tombstones for Paving Tiles Vote Tally


samac () -
MsP (8) - supershorty, lawpy, LIS, Chaostrodon, Cray, Trilt, samac, Barks
cray (2) - mayo, Lupin

10/12

Winning: @Ms Procrastinator

Missing: @Ms Procrastinator @jaboo

Deadline: 10pm EST on 3/16/21 (~5.25 hours)

 

[Trilt]

I think 4+convert and two neutrals (I'm on a little sister/big brother train here lol) would be about right.

I just can't justify two more wolves from the analysis of people we have so far. If Ms P doesn't flip red (especially if she continues to decline defending... all in all bad vibes) I might throw something lol.

 

[supershorty]

I hope we start hearing from people as they get off of work. It's been pretty quiet today.

 

[LetItSnow]

I think 4+convert and two neutrals (I'm on a little sister/big brother train here lol) would be about right.

I just can't justify two more wolves from the analysis of people we have so far. If Ms P doesn't flip red (especially if she continues to decline defending... all in all bad vibes) I might throw something lol.

I think at least 3 neutrals.

 

[Crayola227]

Unfortunately my style of WW is very reactive, just by replying to posts I can generate a lot of thoughts. In the absence of posts, besides talking about our current top lynch candidate MsP, it sorta leaves me out in the woods.

I don't see a lot of support for samac or Chaos, but that's probably where I would go next.

Those woods would lead me to talk about who I think is sus, which overlaps with 3P, I'm also on a tinfoil about Big Daddy/Little Sister. The rest of the woods has me getting paranoid of the rez, rezzer, vets like Lupin, Trilt, LIS, and then Lawpy and Shorty. Not really popular topics but that's how I roll. People don't seem to want to entertain any of these thoughts, but if you change your mind, let me know.

My issue is that I get paranoid of players that are "too village to be true."

Come to think of it, when samac last wolfed she had me basically totally fooled. She was a really good wolf and did a great job seeming extremely village. I'm not sure where people have said "but she seems so village" to really be a great mark in her favor.

 

[Trilt]

I think at least 3 neutrals.

well I hate that lol

 

[Crayola227]

I think at least 3 neutrals.

I agree, and I think it's why we have been feeling at a loss and discussion has lagged. Sometimes even true neutrals can have their play affected and essentially check out besides whatever is going on with the wincon. If there really are 3 neutrals, I doubt they are "true neutral" and win with either side, with that many and MJ's warning it makes me lean exclusive wincon.

Depending on how MsP flips, depending on whether or not we get traction to vote samac and Chaos and how they flip, it might be time to flip the known 3P and see what clues we get, because there could be some good info about wincon, or hints if there's more or how it plays into MJ's dire warnings. If it isn't informative we're not out a villager so we're not closer to parity for obtaining the info.

In my heart I don't think MsP, samac, or Chaos are all village. One two or all are not village. Not sure what, but I think it's important not to elim villagers and to only elim non-village. I'm hoping wolves but I'll take what I can get that isn't village.

 

[supershorty]

Unfortunately my style of WW is very reactive, just by replying to posts I can generate a lot of thoughts. In the absence of posts, besides talking about our current top lynch candidate MsP, it sorta leaves me out in the woods.

I don't see a lot of support for samac or Chaos, but that's probably where I would go next.

Those woods would lead me to talk about who I think is sus, which overlaps with 3P, I'm also on a tinfoil about Big Daddy/Little Sister. The rest of the woods has me getting paranoid of the rez, rezzer, vets like Lupin, Trilt, LIS, and then Lawpy and Shorty. Not really popular topics but that's how I roll. People don't seem to want to entertain any of these thoughts, but if you change your mind, let me know.

I'd like to revisit these pending MsP's flip, for sure.

My issue is that I get paranoid of players that are "too village to be true."

Come to think of it, when samac last wolfed she had me basically totally fooled. She was a really good wolf and did a great job seeming extremely village. I'm not sure where people have said "but she seems so village" to really be a great mark in her favor.

Samac bamboozled me when she wolfed, I had her as a wolf lean originally and then moved her to village based on how she was playing. I've been reluctant to move her higher than neutral in this game because of that.

 

[Lawpy]

And we're drowsy

 

[Lawpy]

Where are you guys getting 7 nonvillage in your calculations?

 

[supershorty]

I got 7 when I did 25% of 26. Well, 6.5 but I rounded up.

 

[Lawpy]

I think 4+convert and two neutrals (I'm on a little sister/big brother train here lol) would be about right.

I just can't justify two more wolves from the analysis of people we have so far. If Ms P doesn't flip red (especially if she continues to decline defending... all in all bad vibes) I might throw something lol.

If there are 2 neutrals, we're likely dealing with only one more wolf imo

 

[Lawpy]

I got 7 when I did 25% of 26. Well, 6.5 but I rounded up.

Yeah thats too high imo

 

[supershorty]

Yeah thats too high imo

That was my worst case scenario.

 

[Lawpy]

That was my worst case scenario.

So that'd mean 3 wolves tops right?

 

[Barkley13]

I'm not sure where people have said "but she seems so village" to really be a great mark in her favor.

yeah agreed. That seems to be one of the main points people have for leaning her village but I don't trust it

 

[Lawpy]

I guess the conversion technically makes it half a wolf

 

[Lawpy]

yeah agreed. That seems to be one of the main points people have for leaning her village but I don't trust it

Hence why she remains in my POE

 

[Barkley13]

Yeah thats too high imo

Is it possible it's a little higher because village had a rez from like a balance standpoint?

 

[supershorty]

So that'd mean 3 wolves tops right?

It would mean 3 wolves tops, yes, but only if there's only 1 neutral. Or there are more than 7 nonvillage, which seems unlikely. Otherwise fewer wolves.

 

[Lawpy]

Is it possible it's a little higher because village had a rez from like a balance standpoint?

Maybe 🤔

But i feel that's taken into account by possible rez conversion

In either case, it's 3 wolves worst case scenario

 

[Crayola227]

So that'd mean 3 wolves tops right?

3 wolves total or left?

 

[Lawpy]

3 wolves total or left?

3 wolves left

 

[Lupin21]

Nah. Too little interaction for there to be more than two wolves max imo. I think this is hard because it is only one, then possibly conversion. I agree that if we keep screwing up though, mayo may have to be a vote in the near future.

 

[Lawpy]

Nah. Too little interaction for there to be more than two wolves max imo. I think this is hard because it is only one, then possibly conversion. I agree that if we keep screwing up though, mayo may have to be a vote in the near future.

3 is the worst case scenario (which likely includes the probable deepwolf)

I agree 1-2 wolves or 1 wolf + convert is likely

 

[Lupin21]

I am curious if jaboo has anything else to catch up on. I mean she was on zenge, but then I feel fell off game solving.

 

[supershorty]

I am curious if jaboo has anything else to catch up on. I mean she was on zenge, but then I feel fell off game solving.

I've been wondering about this too. I did an ISO of her, but other than the Zenge push, there really wasn't much to analyze and I haven't posted it as a result.
I know she said she has exams so maybe just busy? But things really dropped off after she rezzed Barks.

 

[Lawpy]

And we're back

 

[Lawpy]

I need to stare at the vote trackers more, but just based on ~feels~ my POE is Chaos, Cray, and MsP in that order.

Do you still feel the same?

 

[jaboo]

I am curious if jaboo has anything else to catch up on. I mean she was on zenge, but then I feel fell off game solving.

I've been wondering about this too. I did an ISO of her, but other than the Zenge push, there really wasn't much to analyze and I haven't posted it as a result.
I know she said she has exams so maybe just busy? But things really dropped off after she rezzed Barks.

TBH I was so enthralled that I walked in here, pointed at someone, said “sketch,” and immediately got a wolf. I’ve relied pretty heavily on that, mostly because I’ve had to given my crazy schedule and my inability to analyze things that much.

 

[jaboo]

Do you still feel the same?

Yes, mostly because I haven’t stared at the vote trackers for very long.

 

[Lupin21]

TBH I was so enthralled that I walked in here, pointed at someone, said “sketch,” and immediately got a wolf. I’ve relied pretty heavily on that, mostly because I’ve had to given my crazy schedule and my inability to analyze things that much.

I'm cool if you start fresh and just interact as you can with everyone and get their vibes from there. I think those of us that have posted fairly frequently are at a stall point and could use a fresh set of eyes not clouded by the past 4 days. haha

 

[LetItSnow]

Unfortunately my style of WW is very reactive, just by replying to posts I can generate a lot of thoughts. In the absence of posts, besides talking about our current top lynch candidate MsP, it sorta leaves me out in the woods.

I don't see a lot of support for samac or Chaos, but that's probably where I would go next.

Those woods would lead me to talk about who I think is sus, which overlaps with 3P, I'm also on a tinfoil about Big Daddy/Little Sister. The rest of the woods has me getting paranoid of the rez, rezzer, vets like Lupin, Trilt, LIS, and then Lawpy and Shorty. Not really popular topics but that's how I roll. People don't seem to want to entertain any of these thoughts, but if you change your mind, let me know.

My issue is that I get paranoid of players that are "too village to be true."

Come to think of it, when samac last wolfed she had me basically totally fooled. She was a really good wolf and did a great job seeming extremely village. I'm not sure where people have said "but she seems so village" to really be a great mark in her favor.

I hate my own waffling. I was hot on kata early in game. The samac swayed me with PMs. But retrospectively, it's not so much she moved herself 'villager' in her PMs as much as she moved herself neutral.

I woudn't be heartbroken with a samac lynch. It answers the question, like any of us.

I don't think I can be very objective on Chaos. Chaos frustrated me to death by insisting on misconstruing (or really, over-emphasizing one piece) what I said. Makes me grumbly and want to lynch. But that's a pretty craptastic reason to lynch someone, other than the obvious question of whether it was intentional shade-throwing.

 

[LetItSnow]

well I hate that lol

"Think" is a little weak. More like "fairly confident" at least 3. Confident enough that I'm using it as a base assumption, anyway.

 

[jaboo]

I'm cool if you start fresh and just interact as you can with everyone and get their vibes from there. I think those of us that have posted fairly frequently are at a stall point and could use a fresh set of eyes not clouded by the past 4 days. haha

I think I’m going to go back and look at the write-ups to see if I can parse out mechanics at all.

 

[supershorty]

More like "fairly confident" at least 3. Confident enough that I'm using it as a base assumption, anyway.

Why?

 

[Lupin21]

I think I’m going to go back and look at the write-ups to see if I can parse out mechanics at all.

I can tell you that samac is pretty sure there is a wolf camera going off for possible watcher. Otherwise, someone saw something the past night no one died and didn't speak up. I'd love to figure out that. Somewhere there was gun fire and retreating feet, and a possible witness but no one discussed being somewhat involved in that. :/

 

[LetItSnow]

Why?

Go fish.

 

[kaydubs]

Day 8: Tombstones for Paving Tiles Vote Tally


samac () -
MsP (8) - supershorty, lawpy, LIS, Chaostrodon, Cray, Trilt, samac, Barks
cray (2) - mayo, Lupin

10/12

Winning: @Ms Procrastinator

Missing: @Ms Procrastinator @jaboo

Deadline: 10pm EST on 3/16/21 (~2.5 hours)

 

[LetItSnow]

I'm not saying MsP isn't a wolf, but I really don't like the plodding inevitability of this vote. More often than not, I feel like when this happens, it flips a villager.

 

[Trilt]

I'm not saying MsP isn't a wolf, but I really don't like the plodding inevitability of this vote. More often than not, I feel like when this happens, it flips a villager.

I do find it interesting that she just up and disappeared when asked about her finances though. She's been active on SDN since, just not here.

If this is village!MsP, it kinda sucks.

 

[Ms Procrastinator]

I do find it interesting that she just up and disappeared when asked about her finances though. She's been active on SDN since, just not here.

If this is village!MsP, it kinda sucks.

Not really. I need to flip one way or another because I'm in a lot of people's POEs the sooner I flip the sooner you guys can start looking at other people.

 

[Crayola227]

I hate my own waffling. I was hot on kata early in game. The samac swayed me with PMs. But retrospectively, it's not so much she moved herself 'villager' in her PMs as much as she moved herself neutral.

I woudn't be heartbroken with a samac lynch. It answers the question, like any of us.

I don't think I can be very objective on Chaos. Chaos frustrated me to death by insisting on misconstruing (or really, over-emphasizing one piece) what I said. Makes me grumbly and want to lynch. But that's a pretty craptastic reason to lynch someone, other than the obvious question of whether it was intentional shade-throwing.

As an outside observer I read him pretty sketch for that, and the way he's held his votes. I can't give him the derpclears either.

 

[supershorty]

Not really. I need to flip one way or another because I'm in a lot of people's POEs the sooner I flip the sooner you guys can start looking at other people.

But if you're village, it would help village a lot more for you to defend yourself than just give up and let a misyeet happen.

 

[Lupin21]

Not really. I need to flip one way or another because I'm in a lot of people's POEs the sooner I flip the sooner you guys can start looking at other people.

Do you have a top two to look at based on your feels over the course of the game? Ignore vote counts and all that, just your gut feeling.

 

[Ms Procrastinator]

@samac. I started the game with $38 and found $17 on N2 (tot= 55). I found $5 on N3 (tot=60). I bought a decoy (worth 50) on N5 and found 13 (tot=23) I could have bought a decoy or a shank but chose decoy thinking it would be an actual decoy. I figured there's no guarantee that the shank would kill an attacker so a decoy would be better. Turns out it wasn't an actual decoy that could get killed instead of you, but just made whoever look at you think you were doing nothing. Found $2 on N7 (tot $25)

 

[Crayola227]

******************
My bf is coming home and it's Movie Night with homemade buttered popcorn with Frank's sauce and a cheap pinot noir from Trader J's, to watch Gozilla vs King Kong. Probably followed by homemade Thai coconut sticky rice with mango and sauteed honey bananas for dessert.

I will try to keep up reading thread and liking posts, but will try to keep responses minimal, he's almost at the point of banning me from playing WW in the future but not quite. So I will check in but I need to minimize the distraction to our night.
************

 

[Crayola227]

@samac. I started the game with $38 and found $17 on N2 (tot= 55). I found $5 on N3 (tot=60). I bought a decoy (worth 50) on N5 and found 13 (tot=23) I could have bought a decoy or a shank but chose decoy thinking it would be an actual decoy. I figured there's no guarantee that the shank would kill an attacker so a decoy would be better. Turns out it wasn't an actual decoy that could get killed instead of you, but just made whoever look at you think you were doing nothing. Found $2 on N7 (tot $25)

Hmmm a wolfy purchase. Trying to decide if this makes sense to buy from the description for a villager, or if a wolf would it make sense to tell us about it. WIFOM.

 

[Ms Procrastinator]

Do you have a top two to look at based on your feels over the course of the game? Ignore vote counts and all that, just your gut feeling.

I have a top three: lawps, samac, and Cray. They're the ones I feel less sure about compared to everyone else. I've gotten mostly village vibes from lawps all game, but if I had to narrow it down to 3 people it would be these. If I had to narrow it down to 2 then it would be samac or cray. Most of the people I had thought were wolf have flipped (except for samac) These people give the most wolf vibes out of everyone else.