Donuts and Doughnuts WW - Game Thread

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Lawpy said:
D4

Another day of productive discussion nearly led to a tie, which nearly broke Lawpy's donut eating streak. Luckily for him, the donuts broke the tie and Lawpy happily snacked on one of his favorite and tasty donuts. Sadly for the donuts, the decision was a bad call and the situation has gotten worse.

Eaten is @cubsrule4e who was strawberry frosted donut and a vanillager

homemade-strawberry-glazed-donuts-bsb_-img_0149-jpg.342018

N4 starts now. Get your actions in ASAP or by tomorrow 10 AM EST (8/17)​

Players

1. @Animal Midwife
2. @Melchizedek
3. @Viscernable
4. @BobLoblaw78
5. @Crayola227
6. @genny
7. @WildZoo

Eaten
8. MKG - Boston cream donut and vanillager
100. chaos - vanilla cream donut and vanillager
98. cubs - strawberry frosted donut and vanillager
Click to expand...
I don’t know how to tell you without sounding bad, but you’re going to get diabetes from eating all those donuts. I would’ve sugarcoated telling you, but you just would’ve eaten that too
 
Ok here's the Mel case I didn't have fully formed into coherent words last night or have time to type up (sorry cubs). There is still a chance I'm just straight up paranoid, so I would love to hear others' thoughts, particularly @Viscernable and @BobLoblaw78 since y'all are my top village reads right now.

Part of it is just a feeling that we're being led astray. Just a deep sense that if our consensus village leader was village we would have caught a wolf by now...or that he at least would have voted for one.

Let's look at Mel's votes
D1:
Vis (2) - Chaos, Mel
D2:
cubs (1) - Mel
Vis (1) - Mel
D3:
Vis (2) - Bob, Mel
cubs (1) - Mel
D4 he was voting for cubs all day I believe

I am 98% sure that Vis is telling the truth. Her posts since she was outted have felt more like village!vis, which makes sense - unfortunately sometimes PRs that are trying to hide post a bit more on the sketchy side of their range. So with that in mind, Mel has voted for villagers every day. While on and off pushing me (spoiler: another villager). There were also a couple times when he was talking about consolidating that I just got this...icky feeling. I can go back and pull the posts after I finish this one.

Another part is the chaos kill. Mel would have a vested interest in chaos flipping village, especially with a couple of us leaning heavily on how d1 ended. So what about that d1 tie? Honestly I'm still not sure. Maybe the other wolf wasn't around, and Mel thought chaos would self prez onto him anyway, so it would just tie up again if he did the same. Maybe the other wolf was already on chaos (which is one of the reasons I'm eyeing AM). Maybe they decided the other wolf shouldn't try to save Mel because it would look bad for them when Mel eventually flipped. There is a certain strategic element to staying away from self prezzing as long as possible, to see if that gets people to think you must not be wolfing. I've done it before. Usually I end up caving at the end, but all I can think is Mel might be a little more insane than I am.

And the cubs push, plus the rhetoric around it that was focused on Bob reads just...still makes little sense to me. He said yesterday it didn't matter which way he was reading Bob, that it was about the way he did it, but I am pretty sure that when he first presented that analysis it was couched in the idea that wolves would have been village reading Bob d2. I already explained yesterday why that doesn't make sense.

Mel is going to try really hard to get you all to vote me out now. Of course he is. I knew it would happen the moment I was no longer drinking the Mel kool-aid. "Dubz isn't wolfhunting" he says, which is not even true, it was just easy to say because I wasn't doing ISOs or getting into deep back and forths with anyone, posting in depth analysis, etc. Which is whatever, it's not my process at the start of a game. But he was happy to let me hang out in his POE as long as I was on his side. The moment I tried to shake off the status quo though...well, here we are.

He may even get me voted out today, but for the love of god please get him out of here when I flip. I think his most likely partner is genny or AM. I can't really tell right now if AM is just under his spell or is working with him. Her votes this game also do not look good, though it isn't outside of village!AM range to have an off game, especially if someone who she cleared early is wolfing. genny I'm having a hard time with because I thought I had detected The Genny Way but her vote for me last night felt fake. I'm not sure how much of my misgiving is because of her being busy. I will be looking over interactions between her and mel to see if that feels viable. Off the top of my head I feel like they haven't really mentioned each other. I feel better about cray after her posts yesterday. I don't think wolf!cray would have openly sheeped mel and AM (especially not if she was wolfing with Mel).

I am interested to see who he will present as my wolf partner when he pushes me today. Very interested.

tl;dr yeet mel, win prizes
 
The consolidation ickiness

Melchizedek said:
For the love of....

Can we consolidate?

Visc is still my number 1 vote today

I'd vote AM because the AM/Chaos thing is distracting and we need one or the other to stop tunneling and start evaluating other people. AM weirds me out between the two, especially after pushing genny to break the tie but herself choosing to remain on a vote that was going nowhere.

Bob has been voting but not making pushes on his wolf reads, could vote here but not feeling strong enough about it.

WZ I'd vote for lack of wolf hunting, but also some paranoia there.
Click to expand...
I mean this just feels like throwing a bunch of things out there to see what sticks and where people want to go. Makes me feel a tiny bit better about AM, maybe.

Around this time if you ISO Mel you'll see he spends some time pushing AM on her chaos tunnel and such, which again maybe makes me feel a bit better about AM but also I'm hella paranoid now so it could be distancing. I'll read those in context later and see if it feels manufactured. He doesn't actually vote there, so.

Melchizedek said:
Reads like she's busy but I like the fact that she's at least putting some of her thoughts on thread (reading AM v Chaos as v/v, saying she feels good about dubz). I don't like that she's sheeping public opinion about mkg. I'm willing to let it slide for now and keep evaluating her, but after just recently playing while busy, I understand the playstyle.
Click to expand...
And here's the only post I found on genny.
 
WildZoo said:
Ok here's the Mel case I didn't have fully formed into coherent words last night or have time to type up (sorry cubs). There is still a chance I'm just straight up paranoid, so I would love to hear others' thoughts, particularly @Viscernable and @BobLoblaw78 since y'all are my top village reads right now.

Part of it is just a feeling that we're being led astray. Just a deep sense that if our consensus village leader was village we would have caught a wolf by now...or that he at least would have voted for one.

Let's look at Mel's votes
D1:
Vis (2) - Chaos, Mel
D2:
cubs (1) - Mel
Vis (1) - Mel
D3:
Vis (2) - Bob, Mel
cubs (1) - Mel
D4 he was voting for cubs all day I believe

I am 98% sure that Vis is telling the truth. Her posts since she was outted have felt more like village!vis, which makes sense - unfortunately sometimes PRs that are trying to hide post a bit more on the sketchy side of their range. So with that in mind, Mel has voted for villagers every day. While on and off pushing me (spoiler: another villager). There were also a couple times when he was talking about consolidating that I just got this...icky feeling. I can go back and pull the posts after I finish this one.

Another part is the chaos kill. Mel would have a vested interest in chaos flipping village, especially with a couple of us leaning heavily on how d1 ended. So what about that d1 tie? Honestly I'm still not sure. Maybe the other wolf wasn't around, and Mel thought chaos would self prez onto him anyway, so it would just tie up again if he did the same. Maybe the other wolf was already on chaos (which is one of the reasons I'm eyeing AM). Maybe they decided the other wolf shouldn't try to save Mel because it would look bad for them when Mel eventually flipped. There is a certain strategic element to staying away from self prezzing as long as possible, to see if that gets people to think you must not be wolfing. I've done it before. Usually I end up caving at the end, but all I can think is Mel might be a little more insane than I am.

And the cubs push, plus the rhetoric around it that was focused on Bob reads just...still makes little sense to me. He said yesterday it didn't matter which way he was reading Bob, that it was about the way he did it, but I am pretty sure that when he first presented that analysis it was couched in the idea that wolves would have been village reading Bob d2. I already explained yesterday why that doesn't make sense.

Mel is going to try really hard to get you all to vote me out now. Of course he is. I knew it would happen the moment I was no longer drinking the Mel kool-aid. "Dubz isn't wolfhunting" he says, which is not even true, it was just easy to say because I wasn't doing ISOs or getting into deep back and forths with anyone, posting in depth analysis, etc. Which is whatever, it's not my process at the start of a game. But he was happy to let me hang out in his POE as long as I was on his side. The moment I tried to shake off the status quo though...well, here we are.

He may even get me voted out today, but for the love of god please get him out of here when I flip. I think his most likely partner is genny or AM. I can't really tell right now if AM is just under his spell or is working with him. Her votes this game also do not look good, though it isn't outside of village!AM range to have an off game, especially if someone who she cleared early is wolfing. genny I'm having a hard time with because I thought I had detected The Genny Way but her vote for me last night felt fake. I'm not sure how much of my misgiving is because of her being busy. I will be looking over interactions between her and mel to see if that feels viable. Off the top of my head I feel like they haven't really mentioned each other. I feel better about cray after her posts yesterday. I don't think wolf!cray would have openly sheeped mel and AM (especially not if she was wolfing with Mel).

I am interested to see who he will present as my wolf partner when he pushes me today. Very interested.

tl;dr yeet mel, win prizes
Click to expand...
This is 100% AtE, specifically appeal to wolf!mel paranoia.
misrepresenting my logic on Cubs yet again, only because it’s put her on my POE.
My VCA is bad? Can anyone point to someone with a GOOD VCA right now? I pushed Visc and Cubs, but I laid out my case and let people weigh in on it. I don’t get why you’re putting that blame solely on me, other people voted there for their own reasons.

I’m just getting into work and the schedule looks rough. If anyone has specific questions for me about my play or my logic, tag me and I’ll get to them if I can. I’m not going to blanket defend against “Mel led the push on villagers” because 1. Villagers make pushes and sometimes they’re wrong. (See my push on TME last game) b) I didn’t tell people to sheep me, some of you came to the same conclusions for different reasons and I don’t see why I’m the only one to be blamed.

If I go down today, I’ll flip jelly filled doughnut - vanilla townie, which I softed D1 and Chaos picked up.

and when I flip, vote Dubz tomorrow because she’s wolfy trying to make up for sitting back not helping village the first 3 days and now she’s trying to over compensate after getting called out for it.
 
N4

The Lawpy was late and forgot to eat a donut 🙁

No donuts were eaten

D5 starts now. Yeet closes tonight 10 PM EST (8/17)​

Players

1. @Animal Midwife
2. @Melchizedek
3. @Viscernable
4. @BobLoblaw78
5. @Crayola227
6. @genny
7. @WildZoo

Eaten
8. MKG - Boston cream donut and vanillager
100. chaos - vanilla cream donut and vanillager
98. cubs - strawberry frosted donut and vanillager
 
Melchizedek said:
This is 100% AtE, specifically appeal to wolf!mel paranoia.
misrepresenting my logic on Cubs yet again, only because it’s put her on my POE.
My VCA is bad? Can anyone point to someone with a GOOD VCA right now? I pushed Visc and Cubs, but I laid out my case and let people weigh in on it. I don’t get why you’re putting that blame solely on me, other people voted there for their own reasons.

I’m just getting into work and the schedule looks rough. If anyone has specific questions for me about my play or my logic, tag me and I’ll get to them if I can. I’m not going to blanket defend against “Mel led the push on villagers” because 1. Villagers make pushes and sometimes they’re wrong. (See my push on TME last game) b) I didn’t tell people to sheep me, some of you came to the same conclusions for different reasons and I don’t see why I’m the only one to be blamed.

If I go down today, I’ll flip jelly filled doughnut - vanilla townie, which I softed D1 and Chaos picked up.

and when I flip, vote Dubz tomorrow because she’s wolfy trying to make up for sitting back not helping village the first 3 days and now she’s trying to over compensate after getting called out for it.
Click to expand...
It's not AtE. It's the same feeling I got in Orchestra and ignored. It's a re-evaluation based on putting aside the one thing I have to put you in the village column this game.

I am not misrepresenting your logic on cubs. I get you want to say it was just that his posts felt manufactured or like white-knighting. I am saying that it would make no sense for a wolf to manufacture a village read on someone they just failed to kill, and that I personally feel like you were/are leaning too heavily on interactions with Bob when he isn't even confirmed village.

And no we don't have a wolf flip yet, so no VCA can be proven to be good. But I can prove yours is bad. So there is that, and I'm not saying you're the only one to blame either, but I don't yet know if the other people on those votes have been voting for villagers all game. Cray's looks pretty bad based on my reads, so does AM's. Even Vis doesn't look great. Hell I look terrible unless you're a wolf. It's not the only thing I'm looking at, it's just part of the puzzle, and I do hold you to a bit of a higher standard when you have the time to pay attention to the game. So yeah, I'd expect you to at least be pushing a wolf by this point, and I know you're not.

And if I flip it'll be Maple Frosted Donut, vanillager. So :shrug:

I wasn't sitting back and not helping. I have acknowledged that my early reads are often bad for multiple games now. So I don't push things day 1 (which the first 3 days essentially were, since there had been no kills) because it leads to villagers dying. In my opinion that's more helpful than me railroading misvotes. I was still here and giving reads when I could.
 
Animal Midwife said:
Admittedly, I'm feeling less nervous now because, unless there are three wolves, we should get two tries at this.
Click to expand...
Assuming I won't still be your second place if mel flips wolf, who do you think is most likely his partner and why?
 
WildZoo said:
Assuming I won't still be your second place if mel flips wolf, who do you think is most likely his partner and why?
Click to expand...
I'm looking into one of genny and Cray, but leaning towards genny. It's due to that quote you posted earlier regarding his response to my question about his read in genny.
 
Animal Midwife said:
Is there a reason genny/Cray has been eliminated?
Click to expand...
Nah, I thought about it after I posted but didn't feel like editing. The others came to my mind first because I'm very paranoid about you right now.
 
Animal Midwife said:
@Melchizedek can I still hear what you meant by me being wrong about Vis?
Click to expand...
Don't be annoying, I already answered you. You've cleared people for NAI things before (like one vote for someone you thought is wolfy) and been wrong. At the time I said that, I thought you were wrong about Visc being village. You may have read visc right (assuming the protector claim is true), but Visc voting Chaos on D1 was a bad reason to village read her. Especially given how Chaos flipped. Why are you hyperfocused about that post? What is your analysis of why wolf!mel would have said that?

WildZoo said:
@Melchizedek Who is my partner?
Click to expand...
AM, Genny, Cray, and Dubz are my POE and here is the relational analysis for two-wolf pack combos. (Most likely to least likely)

Dubz/AM - possible. There's not a whole lot of early game interaction. I asked AM about a Dubz/mkg pack at one point and AM gave a non-commital read on Dubz, but focused on mkg instead (flipped village).

Dubz/Cray - Likely. Cray calls out Dubz on D1 in conjunction with Bob for Dubz's comment on bob. There's some back and forth here. Could be early distancing, but also looks like typical of Cray just gut reacting to posts. End of the day D3, Cray and Cubs were tied, Cray mentions she'd like a WZ flip but wasn't just going to move to WZ and move the tie around. WZ moves from Cray to Mel, relieving the Cray/Cubs tie with WZ at 2 votes. Cray doesn't vote WZ like she mentioned earlier, but makes a point to post about how she was thinking about it. Potentially distancing in case someone DID decide to flip that vote to WZ.

Any individual Cray evaluation is hard due to lack of thread presence, but she is in my POE re: Bob interactions.

Cray/AM - less likely. D1 Cray disagrees with Bob when Bob thinks AM's play is off. I've seen wolf!cray do this before when her packmate was under fire D1. But multiple times now Cray has mentioned she likes to sheep AM and blatantly so. IDK if wolf!cray would be that obvious.

Cray/Genny - really hard to interpret here, but I think unlikely. Genny asked Visc to vote at some point D2 and Cray said she liked that "push." The push wasn't strong enough to call a push, and that isolated post looks weird. Neither of them has been on much, I don't wolf read them individually, and as a pack its even harder due to lack of thread presence or big pushes. Cray seems to be sheeping people, Genny's only real contribution was bringing up WZ yesterday.

Dubz/Genny - Unlikely. They vote together D1 on me and D2 for mkg. There's been a few games where wolves have voted together early but I don't think thats the case here. Genny's half-hearted dubz push on D3 put Dubz at 2 when Cray and Cubs were tied at 3. Really risky move if they're packmates

Genny/AM - not very likely. AM made it a point to go after mkg for lowposting, and brought up genny to me and to chaos, so there shows some kind of consistency in logic there, but I can't tell why AM focused on voting mkg over genny in the pool of low posters. I just don't see motivation for Wolf!AM to purposely ask me and chaos to look closer at genny if they're packmates.


Edit: WZ moved from Cray to me, I originally had it the other way around, me to Cray.
 
Last edited:
Viscernable said:
Why else are you eyeing AM?
Click to expand...
Process of elimination, general discomfort (I can't really explain that one, I just haven't felt at ease with her yet), an incorrect scum read on chaos that I don't think I've seen from her before (could be wrong on that one).

However I also have to recognize that it's not terribly like wolf!AM to hedge on village!me, and certainly not to put me near the top of her wolf reads. And I also have to recognize that she does have off games, and if Mel is wolfing here then her reads being off this game make a lot of sense to me.
 
Melchizedek said:
Dubz/AM - possible. There's not a whole lot of early game interaction. I asked AM about a Dubz/mkg pack at one point and AM gave a non-commital read on Dubz, but focused on mkg instead (flipped village).
Click to expand...
Yeah just two wolves chattin it up in this thread this morning
Melchizedek said:
Dubz/Cray - Likely. Cray calls out Dubz on D1 in conjunction with Bob for Dubz's comment on bob. There's some back and forth here. Could be early distancing, but also looks like typical of Cray just gut reacting to posts. End of the day D3, Cray and Cubs were tied, Cray mentions she'd like a WZ flip but wasn't just going to move to WZ and move the tie around. WZ moves from Mel to Cray, relieving the Cray/Cubs tie with WZ at 2 votes. Cray doesn't vote WZ like she mentioned earlier, but makes a point to post about how she was thinking about it. Potentially distancing in case someone DID decide to flip that vote to WZ.
Click to expand...
Uhhh did you mean day 4 and also several parts of this are wrong
 
The progression was actually

Dubz was voting for cray > cray/cubs were tied at 3 with Dubz at 2 > dubz moved from cray to Mel > vis moved from cray to dubz, tying with cubs at 3 > dubz moved to cubs and vis moved to Mel simultaneously
 
WildZoo said:
Yeah just two wolves chattin it up in this thread this morning

Uhhh did you mean day 4 and also several parts of this are wrong
Click to expand...
This is a dump from my notes current until last night, I haven't looked at anything from this morning yet.

My day numbering is off, but yeah I see what part is wrong, WZ moved from cray to me (I had it the other way around), but it still broke the tie and gave Cray the chance to vote for WZ.



The more I'm looking back over my notes, the more I'm okay with an AM vote too today.
 
Melchizedek said:
Don't be annoying, I already answered you. You've cleared people for NAI things before (like one vote for someone you thought is wolfy) and been wrong. At the time I said that, I thought you were wrong about Visc being village. You may have read visc right (assuming the protector claim is true), but Visc voting Chaos on D1 was a bad reason to village read her. Especially given how Chaos flipped. Why are you hyperfocused about that post? What is your analysis of why wolf!mel would have said that?
Click to expand...
Chaos flipped after the protector claim though. I'm worried that was TMI.
Melchizedek said:
AM, Genny, Cray, and Dubz are my POE and here is the relational analysis for two-wolf pack combos. (Most likely to least likely)

Dubz/AM - possible. There's not a whole lot of early game interaction. I asked AM about a Dubz/mkg pack at one point and AM gave a non-commital read on Dubz, but focused on mkg instead (flipped village).

Dubz/Cray - Likely. Cray calls out Dubz on D1 in conjunction with Bob for Dubz's comment on bob. There's some back and forth here. Could be early distancing, but also looks like typical of Cray just gut reacting to posts. End of the day D3, Cray and Cubs were tied, Cray mentions she'd like a WZ flip but wasn't just going to move to WZ and move the tie around. WZ moves from Cray to Mel, relieving the Cray/Cubs tie with WZ at 2 votes. Cray doesn't vote WZ like she mentioned earlier, but makes a point to post about how she was thinking about it. Potentially distancing in case someone DID decide to flip that vote to WZ.

Any individual Cray evaluation is hard due to lack of thread presence, but she is in my POE re: Bob interactions.

Cray/AM - less likely. D1 Cray disagrees with Bob when Bob thinks AM's play is off. I've seen wolf!cray do this before when her packmate was under fire D1. But multiple times now Cray has mentioned she likes to sheep AM and blatantly so. IDK if wolf!cray would be that obvious.

Cray/Genny - really hard to interpret here, but I think unlikely. Genny asked Visc to vote at some point D2 and Cray said she liked that "push." The push wasn't strong enough to call a push, and that isolated post looks weird. Neither of them has been on much, I don't wolf read them individually, and as a pack its even harder due to lack of thread presence or big pushes. Cray seems to be sheeping people, Genny's only real contribution was bringing up WZ yesterday.

Dubz/Genny - Unlikely. They vote together D1 on me and D2 for mkg. There's been a few games where wolves have voted together early but I don't think thats the case here. Genny's half-hearted dubz push on D3 put Dubz at 2 when Cray and Cubs were tied at 3. Really risky move if they're packmates

Genny/AM - not very likely. AM made it a point to go after mkg for lowposting, and brought up genny to me and to chaos, so there shows some kind of consistency in logic there, but I can't tell why AM focused on voting mkg over genny in the pool of low posters. I just don't see motivation for Wolf!AM to purposely ask me and chaos to look closer at genny if they're packmates.


Edit: WZ moved from Cray to me, I originally had it the other way around, me to Cray.
Click to expand...
Why is dubz/Cray likely if dubz voted Cray yesterday?
 
Melchizedek said:
This is a dump from my notes current until last night, I haven't looked at anything from this morning yet.

My day numbering is off, but yeah I see what part is wrong, WZ moved from cray to me (I had it the other way around), but it still broke the tie and gave Cray the chance to vote for WZ.



The more I'm looking back over my notes, the more I'm okay with an AM vote too today.
Click to expand...
This is what's really bothering me. Just in the other post you had me ruled as incompatible with everyone but exactly dubz.
 
Animal Midwife said:
I will say I'm not worried about being voted out today because I have an ace up my sleeve. I will say it if things start leaning towards misyeeting me though.
Click to expand...
You? Doing a reveal?? 😱
 
Animal Midwife said:
Chaos flipped after the protector claim though. I'm worried that was TMI.

Why is dubz/Cray likely if dubz voted Cray yesterday?
Click to expand...

TMI? Stop. You're talking just to talk now. I was wolf reading visc, and said you were wrong. How is that TMI? You're either purposely or mistakenly conflating things.

Animal Midwife said:
This is what's really bothering me. Just in the other post you had me ruled as incompatible with everyone but exactly dubz.
Click to expand...
Where did I say that? AM/Cray is also a possible pack, just not as likely.
 
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