Matrix - Game Thread

[Achromatic]

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Mafia will always fakeclaim when they are on moon's position. The setup allows for mafia to do it and either force a counterclaim, or if that role isnt on the setup, no town would be able to tell at first. So its always optimal to claim if you are mafia, or truly the PR

Right, which is why I said you should be able to pre-flip moon and see if the game makes sense.

You are trying to pair me and moon, I have seen you do it twice, and I know from my position that's incorrect.

If you want to kill a doctor claim you should have a world ready.

 

[Achromatic]

But you didnt really reply to the post they made EoD yesterday

I'm pretty sure I did.

 

[Achromatic]

Basically mafia is a puzzle to me. Moon being a doctor fits into what I was seeing yesterday that I ascribed to a scum rand so I reset my suspicion of moon based off of that. It's not like they are confirmed town to me or anything, but that puzzle piece was given an explanation that checks out from my experience so I begin again feeling roughly neutral on Moon socially and now needing a more fleshed out world to want to pierce a protection claim early game.

It's not complicated fmpov.

 

[Stagg737]

It's not magic, it's basic game solving.

Most day 1 claims come from town (I dont know clem's math, I'll look at it when i see it) and killing protection is very low ev in my experience. The game should be solvable from the binary of moon is either scum or town and looking at the game through that lens

Math is simple. 9 vanillagers (wouldn't claim PR), 3 town PR, 3 mafia, so 3:3 ratio or 50/50 on people likely to claim. Town may not claim, wolves should nearly 100% claim if they're convinced they're going down to either gain more time or get a cc to take out a PR. So likely >50% chance that a claim is scum. @Clem J , my math wasn't bad, my brain was just flatulent.

Sure, so go ahead and kill me for the info

and then murder santy in particular.

Convince me Santy is a wolf. You flipping town won't be enough.

 

[Santygrass]

Im not voting you because I think you are paired with moon. I am voting you because I think that regardless of moon alignment your reaction to the claim felt fake, and your progress on moon read is hard to believe for me.

Also from town!achro I expect a more... Wide? Aproach to the game and solving, trying to work together. And here it feels like you are / picking topics / rather than form a view and work on the solve. Like how you progressed from Zenge>Moon>Dubz is rather pingy.
What you had at the start of finding towns which were mostly the consensus takes just seemed to disappear in the second half of D1 and now D2

 

[Achromatic]

Math is simple. 9 vanillagers (wouldn't claim PR), 3 town PR, 3 mafia, so 3:3 ratio or 50/50 on people likely to claim. Town may not claim, wolves should nearly 100% claim if they're convinced they're going down to either gain more time or get a cc to take out a PR. So likely >50% chance that a claim is scum. @Clem J , my math wasn't bad, my brain was just flatulent.


Convince me Santy is a wolf. You flipping town won't be enough.

Ah

that's bad math.

 

[Santygrass]

And like, still I could try to pair moon with Stagg, Zenge or whatev and still wouldnt help me .

Moon as for the claim I think will resolve later and im looking for slots who I have trouble fitting as town and expecting a wolf flip. In no way I can form a world view with the little info we have and expect for it tl be accurate

 

[Achromatic]

Im not voting you because I think you are paired with moon. I am voting you because I think that regardless of moon alignment your reaction to the claim felt fake, and your progress on moon read is hard to believe for me.

Also from town!achro I expect a more... Wide? Aproach to the game and solving, trying to work together. And here it feels like you are / picking topics / rather than form a view and work on the solve. Like how you progressed from Zenge>Moon>Dubz is rather pingy.
What you had at the start of finding towns which were mostly the consensus takes just seemed to disappear in the second half of D1 and now D2

If you're town I am afraid you get to join a very long list of people who don't know what is ai for me. Sorry if that's the case, i just expect better from you than this.

 

[Santygrass]

If you're town I am afraid you get to join a very long list of people who don't know what is ai for me. Sorry if that's the case, i just expect better from you than this.

Its okay. My reads arent always super accurate. What mostly helps if that instead of dismissing me because Im not accurate you still try to work with me tbh, look for thing im missing in my logic / reads I should reassess and tha kindof stuff.

 

[Santygrass]

How you feel about Stagg Achro?

 

[Achromatic]

Basically your arguments you cite against me have no resolution in reality.

"Your reaction seemed fake"

Well, it wasn't.

"I thought your progression was pingy"

Well, that was my natural progression.

"I thought you'd play differently as town"

Well, I am town and am playing how I am playing.

So like, you have chosen arguments that are based on feels and that are incorrect. I really have no way to counter them. So just enjoy killing me and enjoy my town flip I guess.

 

[Santygrass]

Also if youbread Space's post what do you think about their takes on Gikkle?

 

[Achromatic]

How you feel about Stagg Achro?

I haven't thought about them much, although their math is bad.

 

[Achromatic]

Also if youbread Space's post what do you think about their takes on Gikkle?

I skimmed through the posts since isoing here is annoying. Can you cite a post?

 

[Santygrass]

"Your reaction seemed fake"

Well, it wasn't.

You can talk to me about what about moon play you thought it was wolfy but after their claim you realized it was because they were a PR from your pov

"I thought your progression was pingy"

Well, that was my natural progression.

And also you could talk to me of how you are planning to solve (or planned before seemingly rescinding to be yeeted) / how is your view of the game. Who are your townreads rn that you feel confident in?

 

[Stagg737]

Basically mafia is a puzzle to me. Moon being a doctor fits into what I was seeing yesterday that I ascribed to a scum rand so I reset my suspicion of moon based off of that. It's not like they are confirmed town to me or anything, but that puzzle piece was given an explanation that checks out from my experience so I begin again feeling roughly neutral on Moon socially and now needing a more fleshed out world to want to pierce a protection claim early game.

It's not complicated fmpov.

In my multi-verse I can easily see Moon fitting into town or scum. Tbh I'll probably move off Moon today but want more info before I move (if I do).

Ah

that's bad math.

Nah. Pure stats with basic logic the math is 50/50 (unless you're going to argue that a vanillager would claim a PR...). Throw in game theory and you could make arguments either way I guess, but imo the risk/reward benefits wolves for an open PR claim regardless of if wolf or village is making the claim.

Question becomes how many days we would wait to really re-examine Moon's claim if she's never NK'd. Imo her still being alive tomorrow if NKs go through would be a problem.

 

[Santygrass]

I'm not vibing with this post. On first pass, it seemed fine, on reread it seems like gikkle is sussing two people in the same post but mixing them up midway.

If gikkle is scum, I'd give santy and moonster(if I am remembering the post author correctly) some more town credit.

I thought gikkle was talking about moonster/santy (this site only nests one quote, so I see I was missing context there, as I didn't backread at the time)

Gikkle - maybe scum? There's a lot of world's I'm building around their flip, and that's probably unfair because there's only been 1 or 2 moments of "huh? This is scummy"

I think my gikkle suspicion is latched in my head despite the fact that someone posted out my original reasoning was my mistake.

So at this point I've attributed something to gikkle that was said by another and I need to figure out my error.

 

[Santygrass]

Its not that Space had a solid argument onto Gikkle, but whats noteworthy to me is that they were one of the fewslots that wasnt townreading gikkle and doubting them tbh

Thats why they kinda are in my reassess pool for today

 

[Achromatic]

I already did, but sure why not.

So I was pinged by moon's lack of interest in talking with me and probing me, and the like. However PRs often don't really enjoy mixing it up early and staying out of the limelight. I think it's fair to say from my player history that I tend to be in the limelight, so Moon just letting me do my thing early and worrying about it later fits the profile of a PR trying to just blend in and do their job. The wolf angle here is obvious.

Now, this is different from thinking they are 100% doctor, but given that if they are the doctor the wolves will have to kill them to avoid trouble eventually means unless there is a very good angle of attack against them it is best to just let it lie early game.

I still plan to solve, but i have no interest in begging for my life on a new site when my champs game is so close. I'd rather just leave a legacy, say gg, and move on with my life.

I'll probably grab something to eat soon and think about the gamestate a bit. I also like interacting in real time.

I'll give new town reads and affirmations of old ones when i have something in my tummy.

 

[Achromatic]

Ah, yeah I actually was the one that corrected space on gikkle.

No reason to not reassess there really.

 

[Clem J]

I was going to say the odds of a claim being a wolf claim are actually >50% because they'd have more knowledge about potential game set up based on knowing all their roles, but that's bad math and I forgot my brain wandered to other quotes.

Yeah that doesn't actually matter lol

 

[Santygrass]

. I think it's fair to say from my player history that I tend to be in the limelight, so Moon just letting me do my thing early and worrying about it later fits the profile of a PR trying to just blend in and do their job. The wolf angle here is obvious.

How does that align with the fact that moon probably had two of the most controversial sus'es at the time (two widely townreads, me and genny) .
And when proposing PoE to yeet they were open about it?

While I do understand and on a vaccuum your assesment makes sense, dont think moon was trying to not be in the spotlight.

But I'll mull over it for a bit

 

[Stagg737]

Unvote Moon

Willing to give a little more time here. Kind of want to vote Shini after rereading yesterday's vote progression. Need to go back and iso them but their flip would give some interesting info imo.

Also I want more from @potentialsheltervet . Where are you rep?

 

[Achromatic]

How does that align with the fact that moon probably had two of the most controversial sus'es at the time (two widely townreads, me and genny) .
And when proposing PoE to yeet they were open about it?

While I do understand and on a vaccuum your assesment makes sense, dont think moon was trying to not be in the spotlight.

But I'll mull over it for a bit

Do keep in mind that early on especially I tend to view the game in a very egocentric way, especially on new sites when i don't know a lot of people. My analysis of moon was largely grounded around their treatment of me and not the whole.

I couldn't say if my pov holds up at all if I were to take moon as a whole, but that was never my basis for any read of them day 1.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Day 2 Yeet Tally
Shini (2) - Zenge 9, moon 20
Clem () -
Achro (2) - Santy 67, Achro 31
Stagg (2) - Dubz 34, samac 34
moon (1) - Clem 38

7/13
yeet close in ~25.5 hours

 

[Achromatic]

Also nevermind Santy hyper posting is probably town Santy.

 

[Santygrass]

Also, while I could say I agree with what @potentialsheltervet said about Achro at EoD seemed like good points and I think Achro needs to be more discussed. I am a bit wary of why you didnt vote for mkg and tried to do a cfd like... 10 minutes before day was over. You really thought after all the day of discussion you would come in and in 10 minutes just do a big shift ?

If that would've happened it'd be just bad play from town. And idk if it was like -5 min til close and the wagons being tied at shinichi-mkg , you saying you suspected mkg and you were going to let it rand??

Currently debating myselg if thats is wolfy from psv or I'm being stuck and letting influence my view of psv with what I consider a non protown move (but doesnt mean its wolfy )

@Achromatic This is currently what im a bit hung-up on psv. And since you were the target of psv at EoD also was lowkey expecting your take on them

 

[Santygrass]

69 nice

 

[Zenge142]

Marmot Marmot Mo Marmot

Banana Banna Bo Barmot

Fee Fi Fo Farmot

Hi Marmot! 🥳

 

[Santygrass]

Also nevermind Santy hyper posting is probably town Santy.

I dont think that is valid but I take those anyways

 

[Achromatic]

I'd say the most i feel is it unpairs psv from shinichi hard because if shinichi is a wolf then they probably dont splinter there

but if shinichi is town could just be a bored wolf.

I'd want to interact more with them about their suspicion before making any judgments. I said at eod that generally I don't mind being suspected so I dont really care if people suspect me and so them voting me doesnt make them special to me.

I gave you a TEST OF YOUR REFLEXES here and you felt ok, so that's nice.

 

[Zenge142]

I also noted that samac's early suspicion of me was towny too, so we'll add that to the list.

Town
Santy
Genny
Samac

Can you talk to me more about the specifics of where your Samac village read is coming from?

 

[Achromatic]

I just like it when people who dont know me are suspicious of me early. It yields high rate of returns, well above rand, for villagers.

 

[samac]

I think this is acceptable fishing given thread state/claims.


This is not acceptable fishing and I feel the need to call this out. This is not helping you move out of my scum reads...


I vibe with a lot of Santy's argument. I had Achro in the same pile as PSV and Shinichi (ie enough info to be good, but not sure where I stand) but Santy gave a solid argument. Other things were that I wasn't a fan of the sudden backing off of Zenge, then voting for Moon after the weird interaction between them, then unvoting Moon and almost immediately following me onto MKG. I just don't like the progression of their actions yesterday. Plus, Achro flip would give a good amount of info I think. Then again so could Shini, but at this point I think Santy's argument for Achro is better than Zenge's for Shini and for now I've got Santy higher on my village list than Zenge.


This is a valid point that I missed, not sure it affects my view too much atm though.

Ah yes
As a wolf I shout telling PRs to reveal because that’s the best play you can make.
You figured me out.

I have my reasons.
If someone isn’t saying because they think I’m nuts they’re wrong but I respect it.

 

[samac]

vote: Achromatic

my legacy is to murder the **** out of santy

reading up on why space might have been n1'd now

 

[Achromatic]

unvote: Achromatic

I was gut checking santy there you may stop twitching now.

 

[Clem J]

It's not magic, it's basic game solving.

Most day 1 claims come from town

Citation needed

 

[Clem J]

If we're not killing Moon, gikkle is probably my second choice

 

[Zenge142]

If we're not killing Moon, gikkle is probably my second choice

Clem, why is this your world view? Help me understand.

Or has this been Nanook, whispering in your ear?

 

[Gikkle]

Tbh I didn't think mkg was going to flip wolf there with how they were behaving that EoD, but I just thought it was a safer vote since it was unlikely they were PR at that point (since they were online and didn't claim anything despite being tied for top wagon) & I didn't have time to consider any other options

 

[Gikkle]

Santy and Samac core town rn. There's a specific world I could see S!Samac in, but I don't think we live in it atm.

Genny sitting right below core town. Have some paranoia on that slot but I think they're most likely town.

Stagg and Achromatic next tier townie. Could theoretically contain a wolf.

Moonstermash self resolves. Don't trust them but wolves have to kill em eventually if they are town.

Zenge has been vouched for. Don't *really* trust them, but I trust Santy, who does trust them.

Clem
Wildzoo
Potentialsheltervet
Marmot
Shinichi
Which would leave this as my PoE? Which feels like a very unexciting list and makes me think I'm wrong somewhere lol

 

[Gikkle]

Santy and Samac core town rn. There's a specific world I could see S!Samac in, but I don't think we live in it atm.

Genny sitting right below core town. Have some paranoia on that slot but I think they're most likely town.

Stagg and Achromatic next tier townie. Could theoretically contain a wolf.

Moonstermash self resolves. Don't trust them but wolves have to kill em eventually if they are town.

Zenge has been vouched for. Don't *really* trust them, but I trust Santy, who does trust them.

Clem
Wildzoo
Potentialsheltervet
Marmot
Shinichi
Which would leave this as my PoE? Which feels like a very unexciting list and makes me think I'm wrong somewhere lol

This is all pre-reeval though

Will likely change things up when I look back on day 1 & the wagons

 

[Santygrass]

Santy and Samac core town rn. There's a specific world I could see S!Samac in, but I don't think we live in it atm.

Genny sitting right below core town. Have some paranoia on that slot but I think they're most likely town.

Stagg and Achromatic next tier townie. Could theoretically contain a wolf.

Moonstermash self resolves. Don't trust them but wolves have to kill em eventually if they are town.

Zenge has been vouched for. Don't *really* trust them, but I trust Santy, who does trust them.

Clem
Wildzoo
Potentialsheltervet
Marmot
Shinichi
Which would leave this as my PoE? Which feels like a very unexciting list and makes me think I'm wrong somewhere lol

Talk to me about Stagg and Achro?

Also now I kinda have a high confidence vibe read on Clem as town. Maybe I dont have the same level of logic and arguments I could do with zenge, but feeling p confident in my grasp of clem atm

 

[samac]

Tbh I didn't think mkg was going to flip wolf there with how they were behaving that EoD, but I just thought it was a safer vote since it was unlikely they were PR at that point (since they were online and didn't claim anything despite being tied for top wagon) & I didn't have time to consider any other options

So wait. Did you think shin was more likely village than mkg?

 

[genny]

Santy and Samac core town rn. There's a specific world I could see S!Samac in, but I don't think we live in it atm.

Genny sitting right below core town. Have some paranoia on that slot but I think they're most likely town.

Stagg and Achromatic next tier townie. Could theoretically contain a wolf.

Moonstermash self resolves. Don't trust them but wolves have to kill em eventually if they are town.

Zenge has been vouched for. Don't *really* trust them, but I trust Santy, who does trust them.

Clem
Wildzoo
Potentialsheltervet
Marmot
Shinichi
Which would leave this as my PoE? Which feels like a very unexciting list and makes me think I'm wrong somewhere lol

i always worry about reads lists that are basically high posters vs. low posters

 

[genny]

Also now I kinda have a high confidence vibe read on Clem as town. Maybe I dont have the same level of logic and arguments I could do with zenge, but feeling p confident in my grasp of clem atm

oh good it's not just me feeling better about Clem today

 

[Gikkle]

Talk to me about Stagg and Achro?

Also now I kinda have a high confidence vibe read on Clem as town. Maybe I dont have the same level of logic and arguments I could do with zenge, but feeling p confident in my grasp of clem atm

Achromatic I'll need to make a bigger post about when I have more time bc there's not really just one thing that made me TR them.

Stagg on the other hand I thought looked good in his argument with you. The way he went about it didn't seem like he was just pushing an agenda. I also liked his recent talk about not getting caught if he doesn't want to - I don't really see W!stagg having the audacity to brag about how good they are at not getting caught in the middle of a scum game where several people are suspecting them lol.

 

[Gikkle]

i always worry about reads lists that are basically high posters vs. low posters

yeah that's why I said what I did at the end. Doubt it's so easy to just be all inactive wolves.

 

[Achromatic]

update: Clem is still towny to me

 

[Gikkle]

So wait. Did you think shin was more likely village than mkg?

Ehhh

They were about even. I didn't really think either of them were likely to flip scum. Tbh moonster claiming doctor kind of threw me for a loop in terms of who to vote, and I didn't have time to recalibrate.