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The easiest way to proceed (from a mental health standpoint at least) is to arrange your rank list such that, if you match at your last ranked program, you'll still be happy. That way, if/when you match higher (maybe even top 4), you can be pleasantly surprised.Well, because while I'll rank my top choices at the top regardless, I'd like to steel myself to the possibility of not matching if the consensus is that that's what's most likely. I don't have a good sense of what's reasonable doubt vs. med student neuroticism, and I don't want to worry unnecessarily or delude myself and get caught off guard. Does that make sense?
Anyway, thank you for your response.
We can all point you back in the direction of the charting outcomes data but I suspect that won't make you feel better anyway so I won't bother.
With a couple of exceptions (the place that invites all rotating students to interview as a courtesy, the place where your uncle is friends with the PD and got you an interview that way), any program that offers you an invitation is interested in having you there. There may be other people they prefer more, but that's life. Proceed with that knowledge as your guiding principle.