Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

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I’m going to start putting in $1000/month into bitcoin i think and just dollar cost into it. Going to stop waiting on some magical drop that may or may not happen.

I wish i bought some when i was learning about it when it was $200 a coin.

I'm probably going to do this too...subject to spouse approval. Problem is she may not approve it LOL. I might DCA 3-5K/month. I would like to have a few BTC within a few years.
 
If you think this is the case....then that is the only investment to have. It's not like the S&P, real-estate, gold, precious metals, bonds, or other assets will 10x over 10 years.

I reckon the only thing that can 10x over 10 years would be active option trading. You need a lot of leverage

This year my trading options hasn’t gone so well either. Just barely positive for the year. A lot of big names screwed me over this year.

Here are my biggest losers so far.

I need to go back to 45-90 day contracts only. I’m also learning to get better at not doing anything and relax more rather than jumping to de-risk positions. Though granted that has saved me often, but a lot of times i also leave $$$ on the table.
 

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If you think this is the case....then that is the only investment to have. It's not like the S&P, real-estate, gold, precious metals, bonds, or other assets will 10x over 10 years.

I reckon the only thing that can 10x over 10 years would be active option trading. You need a lot of leverage

"Then that is the only investment to have."

Exactly.
 
This year my trading options hasn’t gone so well either. Just barely positive for the year. A lot of big names screwed me over this year.

Here are my biggest losers so far.

I need to go back to 45-90 day contracts only. I’m also learning to get better at not doing anything and relax more rather than jumping to de-risk positions. Though granted that has saved me often, but a lot of times i also leave $$$ on the table.

I just want to say I appreciate you being open and honest with your options results, including when you've been significantly in the red.

I guarantee you this is the path of 99.9999% of people who only post their wins publicly, and show off a very manicured P/L rather than the entire picture.

It's honestly not hard for someone with our level of intellect and ability to make safe, outsized returns beyond the S&P 500, but people need to understand that it's not passive by any means and requires a lot of vigilance, as well as the ability to ride out volatility.
 
There are Twitter folks who say the best thing to do is buy BTC and hold it in self-custody. So you donwload it onto a hardware wallet. They claim that is the safest. The problem with IBIT and others, they claim, is you are not owning BTC itself. You are owning shares of an ETF that owns BTC. Plus the yearly fees eat away at the value of BTC. and there are regulatory fiat risks.

I don't know enough about how much these risks are actually "clinically" relevant so-to-speak. The problem I have owning BTC on self-custody is hardware trends change over time, I don't know if USB will be around in 10 years, maybe the device wears down, maybe you lose it, or some other schitt happens and you can't access the bitcoin on your hardware wallet despite having it.
That's not how it works. Keep the private key in a very safe place and it doesn't matter if the physical wallet breaks.
 
I just want to say I appreciate you being open and honest with your options results, including when you've been significantly in the red.

I guarantee you this is the path of 99.9999% of people who only post their wins publicly, and show off a very manicured P/L rather than the entire picture.

It's honestly not hard for someone with our level of intellect and ability to make safe, outsized returns beyond the S&P 500, but people need to understand that it's not passive by any means and requires a lot of vigilance, as well as the ability to ride out volatility.

Trying to keep it real.

My entire year has been a year of under performance, but i just have to tell myself to zoom out. Rolling 3 years I’ve been killing it. But in 1 year im up only 7% vs 13% spy.

Also this YTD gain isn’t accounting for 2k per month I’m getting from sgov, so on paper, sgov is giving me about 3% extra annual return. Though i only learned to do it this way since 2 months.
 

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That's not how it works. Keep the private key in a very safe place and it doesn't matter if the physical wallet breaks.

So I just chatted with the Perplexity AI bot (literally just have a voice conversation) and I learned what I needed to know about bitcoin private keys pass phrases. This technology (the AI BOT) is pretty damn cool.
 
Oh

So do you get a private key with these online brokers or exchanges?
No, if you are buying a BTC ETF, someone else is keeping custody of the BTC. If you buy BTC on a centralized exchange like Coinbase or kraken, they have custody of your BTC until you transfer it to your own wallet.
 
Was just allocated 1500 shares of Chyme IPO this morning..we’ll see if it pays off. Chyme has good promise and big hype. Hoping to get out in the next 2 weeks
 
So I just chatted with the Perplexity AI bot (literally just have a voice conversation) and I learned what I needed to know about bitcoin private keys pass phrases. This technology (the AI BOT) is pretty damn cool.

The more I interact with AI the more I realize that medicine is cooked as we know it. It's alarmingly smart, powerful, and limited only by how well you prompt it (and with how reasonable of a context window you give it)

I think we have a short 3-4 year runway to make as much money as possible, because things will deteriorate rapidly for the middle class.

Social class mobility is already in decline, and AI will likely hasten its demise.

This is why I've spent so much time trying to get good at trading, options, markets, and such because that realm is already taken over by AIs, trading bots, and quant firms. But even then as a small fish you can still find some edge that is effectively a rounding error for these multiple-billions-per-day volume firms.

I just need a cool $10 mil and I'll be good. Almost there...
 
The more I interact with AI the more I realize that medicine is cooked as we know it. It's alarmingly smart, powerful, and limited only by how well you prompt it (and with how reasonable of a context window you give it)

I think we have a short 3-4 year runway to make as much money as possible, because things will deteriorate rapidly for the middle class.

Social class mobility is already in decline, and AI will likely hasten its demise.

This is why I've spent so much time trying to get good at trading, options, markets, and such because that realm is already taken over by AIs, trading bots, and quant firms. But even then as a small fish you can still find some edge that is effectively a rounding error for these multiple-billions-per-day volume firms.

I just need a cool $10 mil and I'll be good. Almost there...
What’s the point of money if we have AI and robots?
 
J
That's not how it works. Keep the private key in a very safe place and it doesn't matter if the physical wallet breaks.
Just don't lose it. I've got 2.5 eth (thankfully not a lot) that I transferred to a paper wallet years ago and can't for the life of me find the info for it.

C'est la vie.

Fortunately, the vast majority of my crypto is in Gemini, staked and happily thrumming away.
 
What’s the point of money if we have AI and robots?

Because the AI and robots will be concentrated at the top, the top 1-5% of the world will be able to afford a few humanoids to run their family offices. They will reap the fruits of this AI revolution.

The rest? Good effin' luck. This is why you have technofascists like Curtis Yarvin and the PayPal Mafia talking about how there will be an excess of human life to sustain somehow, the "meat" that provides "no value" in the future. I agree with them, and that future will not be pretty. I don't want that kind of future, but I have no control over the current inertia and where it's heading.

This is why I hustle for money. I want to be in that 1-5%. It's existential.
 
I would have thought today would be a big down day based on the war news but the market doesn't seem phased too much. I'm down about 0.5% for the day.

Bought STX, KB, APP.

Current Portfolio:

ANF
AMD
AGESY
ALIZY
GOOGL
AMZN
BUD
APP
CLS
CRDO
GAP
KB
META
NWG
NVDA
PLTR
PM
STX
SPOT
STRL
TSM
TIMB
UBER
VRNA
BITO

Updated Stops. That's it for me today. Will hold positions through the weekend and pray for some good news.

And in the spirit of transparency here's YTD but also will post Gain/Loss ratio and some of my smelliest losers this year. Obviously, I still make a lot of bad trades. That's just part of trading and any year where you've got a SPY sitting at 2% YTD gain and some change, you know that most traders have felt a world of hurt. We haven't had a year this bad since 2015 and 2018 to put it in perspective.
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Those were during the big drop earlier this year. Most of my losses I like to keep under 5-6% with reasonable stop losses which is easier to accomplish when the market is ranging like it has.... Here's last 3 months:

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That top one was you guessed it, TSLA.

Gain/Loss last year was 72%
 
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I would have thought today would be a big down day based on the war news but the market doesn't seem phased too much. I'm down about 0.5% for the day.

Bought STX, KB, APP.

Current Portfolio:

ANF
AMD
AGESY
ALIZY
GOOGL
AMZN
BUD
APP
CLS
CRDO
GAP
KB
META
NWG
NVDA
PLTR
PM
STX
SPOT
STRL
TSM
TIMB
UBER
VRNA
BITO

Updated Stops. That's it for me today. Will hold positions through the weekend and pray for some good news.

It was negative 1.8% overnight for futures at some point and oil futures were up 11% at some point.

Surprised at the tame kind of a day eventually. Was expecting it to be worse.

I’m surprised the biggest hit in my portfolio are the financial companies like Sofi and pypl.
 
It was negative 1.8% overnight for futures at some point and oil futures were up 11% at some point.

Surprised at the tame kind of a day eventually. Was expecting it to be worse.

I’m surprised the biggest hit in my portfolio are the financial companies like Sofi and pypl.
Yeah, I totally agree. Really weird market. Who knows though, we may get more negative news over the weekend followed by a dump on Monday.
 
Because the AI and robots will be concentrated at the top, the top 1-5% of the world will be able to afford a few humanoids to run their family offices. They will reap the fruits of this AI revolution.

The rest? Good effin' luck. This is why you have technofascists like Curtis Yarvin and the PayPal Mafia talking about how there will be an excess of human life to sustain somehow, the "meat" that provides "no value" in the future. I agree with them, and that future will not be pretty. I don't want that kind of future, but I have no control over the current inertia and where it's heading.

This is why I hustle for money. I want to be in that 1-5%. It's existential.
terminator GIF
 
wishing you all the best of luck. Bump this in 4 years. I think btc and tesla will be considered cheap looking back and we all would wish we had these prices in 2029.

Unless of course this guy shows up then all bets are off.

terminator GIF
 
wishing you all the best of luck. Bump this in 4 years. I think btc and tesla will be considered cheap looking back and we all would wish we had these prices in 2029.

Unless of course this guy shows up then all bets are off.

terminator GIF

Bitcoin sure….tesla I’m not quite sure about.

It’s not the leader in self driving cars - waymo is.

Its not the leader in AI - dozens of companies are ahead of it.

The ceo also happens to be full of shenanigans.

It’s already priced for perfection
 
Bitcoin sure….tesla I’m not quite sure about.

It’s not the leader in self driving cars - waymo is.

Its not the leader in AI - dozens of companies are ahead of it.

The ceo also happens to be full of shenanigans.

It’s already priced for perfection

I think Tesla will eventually win in robotaxis. They can scale way more than Waymo. They just have to get around this whole vision only problem.
 
... full self driving/robotaxis in the next 12-18 months...
Sigh. It seems like I've been hearing that record for the past 5-7 years. It keeps being promised, and then just... doesn't show up. And everytime you ask, it's always, "It's almost here!!! 12-18 months!!"

I want to believe. Pardon me if I'm just skeptical.

I do wish I had the funds to have gotten in 10-12 years ago. Yet, alas, I was but a poor resident at the time. Naive to what I was missing out on.
 
I think Tesla will eventually win in robotaxis. They can scale way more than Waymo. They just have to get around this whole vision only problem.

I use FSD every single day. It’s Great. But far far far far away from being unsupervised. Getting 99% perfection is probably exponentially easier than getting 99.9999% perfection, which is where it would need to be.

Too many stupid mistakes still - for example, swerving violently to the other lane over a patch of road repair because the car recognizes it as a object on the road. Or not recognizing school zones and not following speed limits in school zones. Or being out right terrible at making complex left turns.

It’s a great piece of software, it’s saved my life a few times when I’ve almost fallen asleep, works very well for my rural ER commute, but it’s probably 2-3-ish years away from being where Waymo is right now.
 
I think tesla as a stock is a multi prong investment. They will likely be first with Optimus. Sounds like it will be expensive but affordable for 25-50% of the country. I read estimates of 30k a pop. Even at 50k it’s just a nice car. You can finance it.. Now imagine never picking up dog poop, asking out the trash, mowing the lawn, picking weeds, waking up to check your doors are closed, lifting heavy objects etc unless you want to?

Maybe it can help you meal prep.. for older people it can be a companion and a caregiver etc etc. They will be first, have scale to bring to market and i imagine based on the cars will bring a product to market that will be able to update via the internet.

Throw in a robotaxi or true fsd and it can run errands like laundry, grocery shopping etc or even better the stores can just deliver it cheaper, quicker etc . We shouldn’t minimize he potential impact. It comes with many questions for sure..
 
And just as soon as I say that, futures are up 75 basis points.
Yeah, I was actually feeling the same way you were and kept thinking how dumb it was for me to open new positions on Friday with the war going on and then noticed futures were up on the EU news. It goes to show just how unpredictable the market can be.
 
I think tesla as a stock is a multi prong investment. They will likely be first with Optimus. Sounds like it will be expensive but affordable for 25-50% of the country. I read estimates of 30k a pop. Even at 50k it’s just a nice car. You can finance it.. Now imagine never picking up dog poop, asking out the trash, mowing the lawn, picking weeds, waking up to check your doors are closed, lifting heavy objects etc unless you want to?

Maybe it can help you meal prep.. for older people it can be a companion and a caregiver etc etc. They will be first, have scale to bring to market and i imagine based on the cars will bring a product to market that will be able to update via the internet.

Throw in a robotaxi or true fsd and it can run errands like laundry, grocery shopping etc or even better the stores can just deliver it cheaper, quicker etc . We shouldn’t minimize he potential impact. It comes with many questions for sure..

Agreed fully and why a lot of the market considers TSLA to be a fairly straight forward conservative "5-10x" play within the next decade, if not sooner.

It's one of the 5 key pillars of my portfolio: TSLA, NVDA, MSTR, BTC, SOL
 
Maybe im missing something but isnt MSTR effectively another BTC play?
 
Completely unexpected day in the market though I'm sure the EU news helped. I would have bet money though that the market would be down on war developments so that just goes to show how little anyone can accurately predict market movement.

Sold GAP. Pre-mature on that one as a swing. Will continue to watch for recovery though. I'd have no problem holding it LONG.
Bought CCL, BCS, HOOD.

Added TWLO, APP, RYAAY, RGTI to watchlist. I can't catch a break with MSFT. I knew I should have kept that position. Selling that one was dumb.

Glad you guys had me thinking about BTC last week. BITO up 2+% today. Nice AMD surge 9%.

Lots of bullish TSLA option flow.

Update: Trying to get RGTI limit fills aftermarket.
 
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I'm an SA Pro subscriber and the Pro Quant Portfolio on SA is wild. It's a new feature that's basically like Alpha Picks but is an ACTIVE portfolio, meaning it gets rebalanced every week or so? I'm still getting used to it. A lot of the stocks I'm already familiar with due to their presence in the quant database OR having active positions in them but the performance is crazy so far. I'm not posting the tickers because I don't want some letter from their attorney regarding property IQ, etc.. Check this out though. Good grief. 30 positions.
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Will be super interested to see what this looks like a year from now as well as how it compares to the Alpha Picks portfolio.
 
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I'm an SA Pro subscriber and the Pro Quant Portfolio on SA is wild. It's a new feature that's basically like Alpha Picks but is an ACTIVE portfolio, meaning it gets rebalanced every week or so? I'm still getting used to it. A lot of the stocks I'm already familiar with due to their presence in the quant database OR having active positions in them but the performance is crazy so far. I'm not posting the tickers because I don't want some letter from their attorney regarding property IQ, etc.. Check this out though. Good grief. 30 positions.

Will be super interested to see what this looks like a year from now as well as how it compares to the Alpha Picks portfolio.

Wow... if they're able to do this consistently, they're in the wrong business.

I suspect this kind of performance isn't sustainable. Granted, I bet they have an entire history of their picks ranging back a few years.

You could probably figure out a way to download it and get your favorite AI to run some data on it to see if you can automate a system that beats the S&P
 
I'm an SA Pro subscriber and the Pro Quant Portfolio on SA is wild. It's a new feature that's basically like Alpha Picks but is an ACTIVE portfolio, meaning it gets rebalanced every week or so? I'm still getting used to it. A lot of the stocks I'm already familiar with due to their presence in the quant database OR having active positions in them but the performance is crazy so far. I'm not posting the tickers because I don't want some letter from their attorney regarding property IQ, etc.. Check this out though. Good grief. 30 positions.
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Will be super interested to see what this looks like a year from now as well as how it compares to the Alpha Picks portfolio.

That’s actually pretty impressive. I have the SA subscription, only use it to read articles. I’ve occasionally used it to screen stocks based on their quant scores and add to my list of stocks i trade.

Out of all the products, i think seeking alpha provides something meaningful. My previous experience with having a motleyfool stock picking subscription only lost me money - almost every pick of theirs did terribly - granted i had their subscription somewhere in 2021-2022 when the market dropped 20% or so.
 
That’s actually pretty impressive. I have the SA subscription, only use it to read articles. I’ve occasionally used it to screen stocks based on their quant scores and add to my list of stocks i trade.

Out of all the products, i think seeking alpha provides something meaningful. My previous experience with having a motleyfool stock picking subscription only lost me money - almost every pick of theirs did terribly - granted i had their subscription somewhere in 2021-2022 when the market dropped 20% or so.
Motley fool creates too much pump and dump opportunity. Every time they recommend a stock, there is an immediate jump in the price of anything they recommend. And I mean immediate. I used to subscribe and was on one of their calls where they talk about various stocks. Literally, within 1 second of them mentioning the stock they think is a good long term buy, the price will rise by 5-10%. It then sells off to a degree over the next several hours as people take profit but it remains falsely inflated for a bit as people buy in at what is effectively a 3-5% premium.

Motley fool stock picks are only good if you own the stock before they make the pick. Honestly, I'd be more inclined to buy short term puts because of the above than actually load up on what they recommend.
 
Wow... if they're able to do this consistently, they're in the wrong business.

I suspect this kind of performance isn't sustainable. Granted, I bet they have an entire history of their picks ranging back a few years.

You could probably figure out a way to download it and get your favorite AI to run some data on it to see if you can automate a system that beats the S&P

I agree and you know with that kind of performance comes the potential for huge drawdowns on red days. Even as well as Alpha Picks has performed over time, it was down 3-5x below SPY earlier this year. Steven Cress didn't seem phased and seemed very aware of this kind of performance and said that his systems all pointed to equalization and then steady outperformance. It's already back to slight outperformance over the SPY YTD.

Believe me, I've tried but we're just not there yet. I need an AI and/or plugin that can successfully pass log in credentials and data mine a subscription site and even then...he keeps just enough obfuscated to where you don't really know exactly how the model is working on a discrete level. In his defense, he's fairly transparent with the system to a degree but obviously can't give too much away. I think once AI has access to real time market data and can pass login credentials then it will be a different ballgame and I could get so much more done. I'm not trying to copy or replicate his system or even pretend I'd be capable of doing that but I could leverage the system exponentially better than I do now if I had those two things.

That’s actually pretty impressive. I have the SA subscription, only use it to read articles. I’ve occasionally used it to screen stocks based on their quant scores and add to my list of stocks i trade.

Out of all the products, i think seeking alpha provides something meaningful. My previous experience with having a motleyfool stock picking subscription only lost me money - almost every pick of theirs did terribly - granted i had their subscription somewhere in 2021-2022 when the market dropped 20% or so.

Yeah, I think most of us have all subscribed to all the most popular stock sites. God knows I've gone through my share of wasted money subs where I got nothing from the subscription but I've been so happy with SA. It's singlehandedly been the biggest thing that's given me an edge. My weakness has always been fundamental analysis and I still suck at it but luckily the quant system really minimizes that handicap now.

No telling what SA paid to get Steven Cress' system. After all, he used to run a hedge fund and was CEO of CressCap Investment Research when they bought him and his model. If any of you are interested in his background or system, check out the following interview. It's an educational watch.

 
Ok, I've spent the morning going over the entire Pro Quant Portfolio stocks and as I suspected, you can't have that kind of performance on regular S&P stocks. Many of them are incredibly speculative and several are OTC, so therein lies the downside. They make Alpha Picks portfolio tame in comparison. I wouldn't have the balls to trade some of these but the performance is pretty incredible.

In fact...as much as I'm glad they added this portfolio for the Pro members, I can't honestly imagine too many investors having the confidence to trade as much as half of these stocks whereas I can see many stocks in the Alpha Picks portfolio that an aggressive investor with some risk tolerance wouldn't mind trading. I think the best value is probably the Premium level as Pro is pretty expensive. Interesting seeing how much the two portfolios differ.

No trades for me today. Watching Middle East news and trying to keep stops tight.
 
I just took another 9k+ profit in SOFI. Total profit so far ~20k in the past 2 months. That stock is bouncing between $12-14/share. I buy when it's at $12+ and sell at $14+.

I probably could make more selling options but I don't understand options too well.
I repurchased SOFI (June 13th) and I am up another ~10k again, but this time I will probably hold it for another year.

I feel like the stock is not gonna go down again and has the potential to be a $25/share stock in a few months.
 
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Bitcoin sure….tesla I’m not quite sure about.

It’s not the leader in self driving cars - waymo is.

Its not the leader in AI - dozens of companies are ahead of it.

The ceo also happens to be full of shenanigans.

It’s already priced for perfection
It’s all about $COIN fellas. Coinbase is a sleeping Giant. 1T market cap in 2035. Currently 75B. Legoooo my eggoo
 
The more I interact with AI the more I realize that medicine is cooked as we know it. It's alarmingly smart, powerful, and limited only by how well you prompt it (and with how reasonable of a context window you give it)

I think we have a short 3-4 year runway to make as much money as possible, because things will deteriorate rapidly for the middle class.

Social class mobility is already in decline, and AI will likely hasten its demise.

This is why I've spent so much time trying to get good at trading, options, markets, and such because that realm is already taken over by AIs, trading bots, and quant firms. But even then as a small fish you can still find some edge that is effectively a rounding error for these multiple-billions-per-day volume firms.

I just need a cool $10 mil and I'll be good. Almost there...
You won’t be good after you get to 10M. Your brain will go “why not 15?”. Doctors and complacent don’t exist 🙂

Congrats on smashing it!
 
The more I interact with AI the more I realize that medicine is cooked as we know it. It's alarmingly smart, powerful, and limited only by how well you prompt it (and with how reasonable of a context window you give it)

I think we have a short 3-4 year runway to make as much money as possible, because things will deteriorate rapidly for the middle class.

Social class mobility is already in decline, and AI will likely hasten its demise.

This is why I've spent so much time trying to get good at trading, options, markets, and such because that realm is already taken over by AIs, trading bots, and quant firms. But even then as a small fish you can still find some edge that is effectively a rounding error for these multiple-billions-per-day volume firms.

I just need a cool $10 mil and I'll be good. Almost there...
That is a lot of money. Do you live in a VHCOL area?
 
You won’t be good after you get to 10M. Your brain will go “why not 15?”. Doctors and complacent don’t exist 🙂

Congrats on smashing it!

Oh I will be, I'm not even at that number, and I felt like I was at a place where I could walk away from EM and clinical medicine. WIth time, compounding, and growth, I'll get to that figure within 5 years.

All I need to do is sit on my hands.

Hard to see how I'll pull back harder than I already have. Other than trading, managing real estate, and managing two other side hustles, which total less than 10 hours a week, I don't have much else on my plate. Truth be told, I'm a little bored and miss medicine.

That is a lot of money. Do you live in a VHCOL area?

Yea, VHCOL, and in this kind of area I personally think that's the minimum level necessary to live a carefree upper-middle-class life
 
Oh I will be, I'm not even at that number, and I felt like I was at a place where I could walk away from EM and clinical medicine. WIth time, compounding, and growth, I'll get to that figure within 5 years.

All I need to do is sit on my hands.

Hard to see how I'll pull back harder than I already have. Other than trading, managing real estate, and managing two other side hustles, which total less than 10 hours a week, I don't have much else on my plate. Truth be told, I'm a little bored and miss medicine.



Yea, VHCOL, and in this kind of area I personally think that's the minimum level necessary to live a carefree upper-middle-class life

well done. Are you doing part time hours? Pretty amazing you will be at 10m in 5 years. And your early 50s?
 
What is going with GOOG?

Why is the stock in not getting any traction?
 
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