StardeWW 2: Ginger Island - GAME THREAD

Started by supershorty
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Stagg737 said:
PSV VCA:

D1: First vote on the Lucy wagon. Votes were spread out but count was Miranda, Vis, Mighty with 2 and Zenge, Santy, Nate, Lucy with 1. Sat on that vote until 9:58 and switched to Vis to make it Vis 6, Mighty 6, Stagg 4.

D2: Was first vote on Alley to make count Santy 3, Alley 1, PSV 1. Switched to Santy to break the tie off of Alley and make count Santy 6, Alley 4, PSV 2.

D3: Voted for Barks (who sat on PSV day 2)

Maybe most notably, per VCA PSV and Alley are a compatible pack. PSV started the Lucy wagon and Alley eventually joined. Alley claimed to not be around for close, but PSV may have moved to Vis to gain credit and separate from Alley. PSV is also potentially compatible with Lawpy per VCA as their votes on Lucy were 1 and 2 and came less than 20 minutes apart. If that's the case though, that would mean PSV avoided my potential counterwagon. However, if she had jumped on me that would mean having Lawpy, Might, and PSV on my counterwagon together with consecutive votes which wolves may have wanted to avoid.

Analysis is that this isn't the worst, but isn't good. Also that PSV appears to be compatible with several other living players to be in a pack. Per VCA, PSV is high in the POE.
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Stagg737 said:
Update current reads/POE from most wolfy to village based on VCA:

POE: Lawpy/Miranda>>PSV

Barks- neutral to slight village lean
Dubz - village lean
JJJ/SAR- village lean

Genny ????

I think the pack that makes the most sense at this point is Lawpy/Miranda. I'll go back and do some actual analysis of posting later, but I don't see JJJ or SAR in a pack. Same goes with Dubz, just with slightly less confidence. I think Barks is more likely village based on VCA and claimed use of her abilities, but I could also see her in a pack with Lawpy. I also need to go back and actually iso/evaluate Genny, because there's not much to go on with her and I keep forgetting about her until she posts, which imo is not good this late into the game.

If people want me to do a VCA on myself, I can, but imo it's pretty straightforward and arguments against my VCA are basically "but, but, deepwolf!" Which I can't really argue against if that's where people will get stuck.
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Ok from your POV, what has made PSV/pshelty look less sketchy or incompatible with me or mirandas?
 
mightyrunner7 said:
My main complaint about stoat in my long ISO was way too much hedging and delaying reads.

Stoat has now made 4-5 village reads as part of the tierlist and posted defenses to those reads when questioned. Obviously I'd have preferred to see wolf reads as well, but I felt this was a significant step in moving off my main complaint. They have now done more gamesolving than SAR, lucy, or clem
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mighty’s shade on SAR noted
 
Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
Responses appreciated!
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Viscernable said:
Sooo whatcha doing with those responses, surveymonkey.com?
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Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
Making mental notes for a later time if I deem them relevant. I may have more to say when we get to the game part of the game.
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Viscernable said:
Brady Bunch K GIF

Tbh sounds like more of a “asking questions just to look busy” kind of venture to me
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Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
I'm not sure how many times I've heard something like this, but it's a lot. Questions are a valuable resource, and far too often in Mafia do we (the general "we" meaning "people that play Mafia") treat them like something less than that. They're especially important to my methodology, and that is amplified further in a game like this where I have very little prior knowledge of the players. Questions help me to orient myself in the game. I also just expanded on some of the rationale underlying questions I had asked AM and Stagg. Do you have a perspective about that?
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Viscernable said:
I agree with asking questions but the questions you asked don’t seem useful to me and mostly seem to invite dragging on a fight that could become one of those pretty-off-topic vicious fights that demoralize and exhaust people. But then people don’t always see value in questions I feel are important to ask, so I probably can’t throw too many stones.
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Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
@Viscernable why did you eyeroll me?
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Viscernable said:
Because I don’t think this exchange is going anywhere and it’s more productive for me to drop it and see if your questioning methods make more sense to me later. I do like your post on samac.
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This exchange just makes no sense to me as a wolf theater.
 
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I don't know what else to
Stagg737 said:
Miranda VCA:

D1: Voted Santy early in a somewhat retaliatory manner. Vis had 2 votes and Zenge, Stagg, Miranda, Mighty, and Santy had 1. Later, unvotes Santy to make count Vis 4, Mighty 3, Lucy 3. Then 45 minutes later she votes for Lucy 15 minutes after Alley did to make the count Vis 4, Mighty 3, Lucy 5. 2 hours before close, switches her vote to Mighty where she stayed until close to make count Vis 4, Mighty 6, Lucy 3. Shortly after that Dubz unvoted Mighty and Lawpy voted Mighty.

D2: Voted Alley to make it Alley 4, Santy 4, PSV 1. Later moved voted to Santy to make it Santy 9, Alley 1, PSV 2. Interesting to note that Miranda and Lawpy switched their vote to follow each other within an hour of both of these votes.

D3: Miranda ended up 2/3 on Barks with PSV and Clem.

This VCA looks pretty bad. The initial retaliatory vote on Santy can be nooby WIFOM, but even disregarding that this does not look good. She was on the Lucy counterwagon with both Lawpy and Alley which actually put Lucy in the lead and moved to Mighty with Lawpy when the Lucy wagon was dying. I could see her parking her vote there to not attract more negative attention as a noob wolf and gain some village cred. On D2, she did create a tie on Alley, but did eventually switch to Santy with Lawpy. D3 is meh.

I could definitely see this being the voting patter of a noob wolf who was unsure what to do having 2 packmates as leading wagons pretty early into D1. There's a lot of mirroring with Lawpy as well, which I didn't notice before. Based on votes, I also think it's unlikely but not impossible for her to be in a pack with Alley. If Alley flips village, Miranda would move up on my POE.

Analysis based on VCA is wolf lean.
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I think you are analyzing me like I'm really calculating every vote like a wolfy mastermind lol

I keep saying, you'll be sorely disappointed if you yeet me instead of a wolf, because I'm as village as it gets
 
Night 4

"Everyone has a unique and interesting perspective, whether they believe it or not."

Leah ran her fingers through her hair. Things just weren't making sense. She'd started off so strong, quickly identifying the troublemakers among them. She'd found all these golden walnuts, and unlocked a secret of what to do with them, though more secrets remained undiscovered. She believed in the simple things in life and didn't fully appreciate the mysteries of golden, inedible nuts. She'd even tried to smash them with her head, which did nothing other than leave her with a walnut-sized bruise.

Throwing the walnuts at the sky didn't do anything for her either. Maddening. But at least she didn't throw any down a mineshaft ... this time.

Her normally neat braid was getting frizzy with how many times she'd tugged at it or dragged her fingers through it, trying to understand what happened. Was she putting trust in the wrong places? Was she right but just not being loud enough about it? She didn't understand how that could be possible, it seemed like she'd been talking to herself for days, but at this point, she wasn't sure what was and what wasn't. Everything just seemed so confusing.

She dropped some things in the mailbox and made a deal with a mysterious figure she'd found by the mines. She didn't see his face, but a transaction occurred. She hadn't decided whether she would tell anyone about it or not. Thoughts swirled through her head, entangling with lengthy sections of statistics that had been troubling her since the first day on the island.

A "splat!" sound on her shoulder made her look up in annoyance. A crow went speeding off, leaving a calling card on her delicate sleeve. Rage crossed her face as all of the frustration from the past week boiled over. She shouted to the heavens, a raw scream of exhaustion, annoyance, and utter bewilderment - getting **** on was just the final straw.

A chorus of caws answered her scream, and horror crossed her face as an enormous flock of crows exploded out of the trees ahead, beelining for her. She felt a sense of peace wrapping around her shoulders, rather than panic, though. She wanted this. She had hoped for this for days. Finally, she was meeting her end.

The scaffolding around her unfinished barn was all that remained.

Dead is...
1679667537825.png


@WildZoo, Leah, and a...
vanilla villager

8 players remain.

1. @potentialsheltervet
7.7 @Stagg737
8. @SARdoghandler
12. @JaggedJimmyJay
13. @Barkley13
14. @miranda920
17. @Lawpy
18. @genny

Returned to Stardew Valley:
10. @mightyrunner7, George, WOLF vanillizer
9. @bluestoat, Pierre, neutral 3p
4. @Viscernable, Lightning, Electric WOLF
2. @Animal Midwife, Abigail, village one-shot vigilante
21. @Santygrass, Krobus, village odd night hider
16. @samac, Emily, village every other night commuter
6. @Zenge142, Vincent, village even night redirector
11. @lucy., Penny, vanilla villager
>. @NateTheLesser, Pam, village sleepwalker
5. @Clem J, Shane, vanilla villager
3. @alleycat03, The Bouncer, village bodyguard
7. @WildZoo, Leah, vanilla villager

Sidecars:
1. @PlumPoppy
2. @futuredogtor614
3. @motheatenlysis
4. @matthirten13

Subs:
1. @mkg323
2. @dyachei
3. @SportPonies

Tots:
1. @justafluff
2. @Ms Procrastinator
3. @chicandtoughness
4. @marmot`

It is now Day 5. Vote closes at 10 PM CDT tomorrow, 3/25. Please hold for the Luau Festival posting.​
 
Welcome to the Luau!

All players find themselves drawn to visit the beach for the EXCITING Luau Festival. As you know, on the day of this Festival, every home and shop in StardeWW Valley is "locked" and cannot be entered. SO YOU ARE ALL TRAPPED HERE (I mean, it is a beach, no complaining!)

Most players seem to have gone all out, getting into the festive spirit despite the dark happenings of last night.

In case you've never experienced the luau (one of the comods *coughkdcough* hasn't), the communal soup pot made with ingredients provided by villagers is the main attraction. Each player may choose to add an ingredient (not required) and the Governor tastes and judges the soup. Be quick now and include your ingredient in your PM during this day 5 cycle.

You see the Governor shuffle up to the podium, making some grand gestures, before speaking into a megaphone: "Yes, LET'S START!"

Okay - that's your cue. The winner will be announced at day close (maybe along with some of the most note-worthy reactions of the Governor).

SOUP'S ON - LET'S TASTE!​
 
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I feel like at this point there's a high likelihood of there being a wolf in Stagg/miranda. I'm undecided on which one is individually more wolfy.
I recognize lots of things look bad for miranda and I was definitely taken in by the ATE with Santy. Trying to decide if miranda's movements are more or less logical for a wolf than Stagg's, and the answer is "idk."
 
potentialsheltervet said:
I feel like at this point there's a high likelihood of there being a wolf in Stagg/miranda. I'm undecided on which one is individually more wolfy.
I recognize lots of things look bad for miranda and I was definitely taken in by the ATE with Santy. Trying to decide if miranda's movements are more or less logical for a wolf than Stagg's, and the answer is "idk."
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I’m just a mess of a person tbh lol
 
Lawpy said:
I mean that’s the game where he bussed his packmates really hard.
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I gathered that from context. The argument against him being a wolf in this game is the manner in which he bussed his packmates, if that makes sense, so if he has a precedent for doing exactly this behavior then that discredits everything he's saying.
 
potentialsheltervet said:
I gathered that from context. The argument against him being a wolf in this game is the manner in which he bussed his packmates, if that makes sense, so if he has a precedent for doing exactly this behavior then that discredits everything he's saying.
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He has bussed multiple times after. He made a tie between his packmate and a villager on lylo (by voting for his packmate) in one of the games iirc. So that’s why his attempts to solve by VCA are coming across as strange because he’s known to pretty much destroy the VCA to his absolute advantage when wolfing.
 
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But keeping this in mind

WildZoo said:
To explain my Stagg vote a bit further, other than just giving up and deciding maybe Lawpy was right, and also being horrified while reading Stagg's pushes on his packmates in Sea Monsters...

This type of gamestate where the wolf pack starts out with major hits and then there are multiple misyeets in a row is something I have only really seen in games where there was strong enough bussing to distance the remainder of the pack from the wolf (or wolves) that were going down. That just feels like the kind of game we're in right now.

So...I'm done looking at people who were hedgey on mighty and Vis day 1 or were voting for lucy or whatever. Nah. That's the perspective we've been working from and it has only gotten us dead villagers. This feels like a game where the wolves saw the blood in the water and went deep. Time to shake it up.

Jay and SAR would fit the bill too, much as it pains me to say. Probably need to reaffirm their status in the blocc. I don't want to turn things too hard just yet because we do have a day of space still (hopefully) and I'm not quite ready for full dismantling.

But the POE is clearly wrong.

Other things kind of work into this too - the fact that I'm still alive despite being clear. The difficulty in finding compatibilities in the existing POE. It just feels wrong, and a game shouldn't feel this hard after two wolves dying within the first real cycle.

I'm rambling but hopefully that makes sense.
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HRH Queeb SAR said:
So PSV if you feel that unlikely it's Stagg, then why are you voting him and why did you say you feel strongly there is a wolf in Miranda/Stagg?

These statements feel somewhat incompatible to me
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I don't think it's unlikely that it's Stagg. He apparently has a history of this sort of behavior with packmates, and his treatment of Vis and mighty is a lot more incriminating than JJJ's is imo.
 
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