StardeWW 2: Ginger Island - GAME THREAD

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It seems like I'm going to get the axe today.

I probably won't be around much at EOD since my fiancé is going back to work tomorrow (gone for 5 weeks) and I want to spend time with him.
So, with that I'll go ahead and leave some thoughts.

Ralph Wiggum Danger GIF
 
With every misyeet that has flipped village it's kind of thrown my POE into the garbage. Everyone is at least a little sus...
I'm not a seasoned or skilled wolf hunter, but I've been trying

Top Suspects:
Stagg/PSV

Neutral (could go either way):
SAR/Barky/Lawpy/JJJ

Village Lean:
Genny

I know my genny village lean comes out of nowhere, but she sent me some walnuts, I feel good about and trust that she is village.
 
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In case I am closing by myself again tonight (which is somewhat likely because this close time is late for my beloved comods), please consider any PMs you have with other players to be closed when the writeup is posted (unless otherwise stated at the start of your PM).

I will eventually get around to saying "This PM is now closed" in each one, but that is lower priority than closing/festival results/writeup.
 

I've been working through this today. It's a chart meant to depict mafia teammate compatibility. Dark green means I think two players are unlikely to be teammates. Light green is a less confident version of that where I see some kind of indicators to separate people without feeling the same security. And yellow means I don't have a compelling reason to say they're not both mafia (i.e., they're at least technically compatible).

I've shared a few points that I found along the way here in the thread today, but I've avoided totally spamming every single thing. If there are questions I can refer back to specific interactions to point out the things I had in mind. I think my main takeaway here is that I wouldn't eliminate Lawpy or Barky today, because they're the hardest to find teammates for. Genny is compatible with nearly everyone, but that should be taken with a grain of salt -- genny's posting style lends itself to making this analysis difficult (no slight, play however you like).
Jays, could you post your analyses of interactions between SAR and vissy when you have the time? I’m curious what you think
 
Interactions of mightrunner7 and SARdoghandler

From mighty about SAR


From SAR about mighty


I'll just talk about both sides together since there's very little. mighty's only mention of SAR was essentially in passing, within a grouping of two others as the "low-gamesolving" squad. That tells me nothing. This interaction is really all about the vote. If I am interpreting tallies correctly, this put mighty at a 5-4-4 lead over Vis and lucy. That's an important vote then in all lucy-town worlds.

I'm not sure I can clear SAR on this basis, just because there's very little to work with. What is there is positive. Regardless, I don't think they're a good elimination today.
Thinking about this
 
Interactions of Viscernable and SARdoghandler

From Vis about SAR

There appears to be nothing, unless they mentioned SAR without actually saying the name.


From SAR about Vis

I kind of want to yeet Stagg but having trouble overcoming the fact he just came back. I haven't loved the reasoning behind his push for Vis

Felt more to me like you're pushing for it not necessarily for a wolf vibe but more for things that flip would give you. Which I don't love because if you were a crafty wolf (which you are) then you could be setting up for an elaborate tunnel with subsequent arguments for other flips all based on a vis flip

There's very little. Both of these posts are about Stagg, and Vis is mentioned only in an ancillary way. Purely by this interaction there is no reason to clear SAR.
 
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With every misyeet that has flipped village it's kind of thrown my POE into the garbage. Everyone is at least a little sus...
I'm not a seasoned or skilled wolf hunter, but I've been trying

Top Suspects:
Stagg/PSV

Neutral (could go either way):
SAR/Barky/Lawpy/JJJ

Village Lean:
Genny

I know my genny village lean comes out of nowhere, but she sent me some walnuts, I feel good about and trust that she is village.
Okay, not to be critical, but that is a terrible reason to read her village and should be NAI. If there’s PM reasons you feel make her village, that’s fine, but this is how you get pocketed by wolves.
 
You said she’s village because she opened a PM with you. That’s bad logic. If there are specific reasons in that PM that you feel give her strong village points, that’s fine. I’d just warn that wolves pocket people in PM all the time.

She also opened a PM with me. Should I give her village points for that?
I guess I need to spell it out, based on the contents of our PM I feel good about genny.

But now that you say this, how can genny be pocketing me if you think I’m a wolf?
 
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I hate this.

Miranda seemed genuinely surprised that genny opened multiple pms. So this leaves a few options

1. Well coached/organized wolf pack behaviour, likely not with genny to act surprised that they weren't the only one
2. Miranda is a last wolf standing so didn't know about other pms
3. Miranda is not a wolf

Scream GIF by Originals
 
I hate this.

Miranda seemed genuinely surprised that genny opened multiple pms. So this leaves a few options

1. Well coached/organized wolf pack behaviour, likely not with genny to act surprised that they weren't the only one
2. Miranda is a last wolf standing so didn't know about other pms
3. Miranda is not a wolf

Scream GIF by Originals
I’ll clue you in

It’s #3
 
I hate this.

Miranda seemed genuinely surprised that genny opened multiple pms. So this leaves a few options

1. Well coached/organized wolf pack behaviour, likely not with genny to act surprised that they weren't the only one
2. Miranda is a last wolf standing so didn't know about other pms
3. Miranda is not a wolf

Scream GIF by Originals
Where does Miranda seem surprised? It’s mainly PSV that has sounded surprised to me lol