StardeWW 2: Ginger Island - GAME THREAD

[Stagg737]

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To explain my Stagg vote a bit further, other than just giving up and deciding maybe Lawpy was right, and also being horrified while reading Stagg's pushes on his packmates in Sea Monsters...

This type of gamestate where the wolf pack starts out with major hits and then there are multiple misyeets in a row is something I have only really seen in games where there was strong enough bussing to distance the remainder of the pack from the wolf (or wolves) that were going down. That just feels like the kind of game we're in right now.

So...I'm done looking at people who were hedgey on mighty and Vis day 1 or were voting for lucy or whatever. Nah. That's the perspective we've been working from and it has only gotten us dead villagers. This feels like a game where the wolves saw the blood in the water and went deep. Time to shake it up.

Jay and SAR would fit the bill too, much as it pains me to say. Probably need to reaffirm their status in the blocc. I don't want to turn things too hard just yet because we do have a day of space still (hopefully) and I'm not quite ready for full dismantling.

But the POE is clearly wrong.

Other things kind of work into this too - the fact that I'm still alive despite being clear. The difficulty in finding compatibilities in the existing POE. It just feels wrong, and a game shouldn't feel this hard after two wolves dying within the first real cycle.

I'm rambling but hopefully that makes sense.

There are some fair thoughts here and the second paragraph actually makes a lot of sense to me, but I disagree with the bolded.

The fact that you're still alive despite being "clear" also applies for SAR and Jay, so I don't buy that argument at all. I also think there are plenty of compatibilities in existing POE and I've pointed them out in my posts. Lawpy is compatible with multiple people, including potentially you. Aside from AM's "god read" I don't see a strong village argument for him. On top of that, AM's read was with less than a day of actual play from Lawpy iirc seeing as he subbed in for Coopah. I'm going to have to go back and iso Lawpy, but right now he's near the top of my POE.

 

[Stagg737]

Me: makes a bunch of ties d1 and forgets to actually pay attention to who breaks them

Typical

Well according to Nates sheet:

You voted Mighty to make a Vis, Mighty, Miranda tie at 2; Lawpy broke it by moving off Miranda to Lucy
You voted Vis to make a Vis/Mighty tie at 3. Santy voted for Lucy to make it a 3-way tie. I made my initial vote on Vis and sat there until self-prez
You voted Mighty to go from Vis 5, Mighty 3, Lucy 4, to a 3 way tie. SAR voted for Mighty to break the tie.
You voted for Vis to make it Mighty/Vis 5 (Lucy dropped to 2). Lawpy moved off Stoat and onto Mighty to break the tie.

Lawpy moved off a vote to break your tie twice. SAR and I placed original votes to break your ties once each. Again, not looking great for Lawpy's VCA...

 

[WildZoo]

The fact that you're still alive despite being "clear" also applies for SAR and Jay, so I don't buy that argument at all.

I mean you could extend that statement to include them if you want, though I mentioned they are in similar positions to you where their votes could have been busses. You all broke ties I made between vis and mighty.

But in any case the generally agreed upon "blocc" was passed over for Clem to die, which to me means at best we're all wrong about our primary POE and at worst there's a wolf in the blocc.

Aside from AM's "god read" I don't see a strong village argument for him. On top of that, AM's read was with less than a day of actual play from Lawpy iirc seeing as he subbed in for Coopah. I'm going to have to go back and iso Lawpy, but right now he's near the top of my POE.

AM's godread is to be respected tbh. But I've also already talked about how the way he and mighty interacted looks unpartnering. Also not really sure who you see him partnered with, I'm ignoring any further paranoia about me, it's just not worth my time. PSV? No. Miranda? Unlikely. So...who, Barks?

 

[Lawpy]

Day 4

"That shady-looking guy in the back? I'm not supposed to talk about it."

The bouncer tipped his sunglasses down, surveying the situation he'd found himself in. He assured everyone, over and over, that he had everyone's best interest at heart. He was guarding the casino - and everyone knew about how prized casinos were around here.

Well, at least the ones that hadn't been burned down by owners fleecing people out of hard-earned money and enchilada hats.

The bouncer could understand the accusations, to some extent. He was a shady guy. A hulking figure standing at the back of the Oasis, wearing all black, and wearing sunglasses inside - of course people would find that somewhat disquieting. But he was there to do a job.

And he sure had tried to do it. Every night, he'd tried to keep someone safe, willing to put his own life on the line if he had to, and none of his targets had suffered as a result! He didn't know if any of them had been the target. No one did. The activities of the night were shrouded in mystery, much like the inside of a casino had a haze of cigarette smoke and bad decisions.

Some of them have really tasty milkshakes, but I digress.

His own decisions were called into question as the number of people dwindled. He had made choices, but were they the right choices? His frustration simmered. He was only one man, after all; there was only so much he could do! And he was further hampered by the fact that someone had stabbed him last night, incapacitating him for the night, and didn't even have the guts to fess up. He gingerly pressed his hand to the bandage over the wound in his side. If only he knew...

"How convenient that you only guarded people who didn't die. How convenient that you didn't think a child like Vincent needed to be protected, even though we've seen time and time again that Kirby-loving kids are among the first to die. How convenient."

It sure was convenient to throw him on a train and send him away. Hopefully they'd celebrate over the soup at the luau tomorrow.

The wind carried in a sound, imaginary or real, they couldn't be sure. To the deeply worried among them, it sounded like
"...everything..."

Dead is...

Spoiler

View attachment 368277

@alleycat03, The Bouncer, and a...

Spoiler

village bodyguard

9 players remain.

1. @potentialsheltervet
7. @WildZoo
7.7 @Stagg737
8. @SARdoghandler
12. @JaggedJimmyJay
13. @Barkley13
14. @miranda920
17. @Lawpy
18. @genny

Returned to Stardew Valley:
10. @mightyrunner7, George, WOLF vanillizer
9. @bluestoat, Pierre, neutral 3p
4. @Viscernable, Lightning, Electric WOLF
2. @Animal Midwife, Abigail, village one-shot vigilante
21. @Santygrass, Krobus, village odd night hider
16. @samac, Emily, village every other night commuter
6. @Zenge142, Vincent, village even night redirector
11. @lucy., Penny, vanilla villager
>. @NateTheLesser, Pam, village sleepwalker
5. @Clem J, Shane, vanilla villager
3. @alleycat03, The Bouncer, village bodyguard

Sidecars:
1. @PlumPoppy
2. @futuredogtor614
3. @motheatenlysis
4. @matthirten13

Subs:
1. @mkg323
2. @dyachei
3. @SportPonies

Tots:
1. @justafluff
2. @Ms Procrastinator
3. @chicandtoughness
4. @marmot`

It is now Night 4. Please submit night actions by 7 AM CDT. Night closes officially at 10 AM CDT.​

Hmm

 

[WildZoo]

You voted Mighty to make a Vis, Mighty, Miranda tie at 2; Lawpy broke it by moving off Miranda to Lucy

This one threw me but I was more tracking the wolf vote movements. So Jay broke the 2-vote tie to put mighty in the lead after Lawpy made a different tie.

 

[Stagg737]

I mean you could extend that statement to include them if you want, though I mentioned they are in similar positions to you where their votes could have been busses. You all broke ties I made between vis and mighty.

But in any case the generally agreed upon "blocc" was passed over for Clem to die, which to me means at best we're all wrong about our primary POE and at worst there's a wolf in the blocc.


AM's godread is to be respected tbh. But I've also already talked about how the way he and mighty interacted looks unpartnering. Also not really sure who you see him partnered with, I'm ignoring any further paranoia about me, it's just not worth my time. PSV? No. Miranda? Unlikely. So...who, Barks?

Why not PSV. Absolutely could be paired with Miranda. Same goes for Barks, she's just further down the POE. Also Genny, because we need to talk about Genny.

Since you're looking at unpartnering though, if I'm a wolf then who would my partner be? Because I feel like right now the most likely pairing is Miranda/Lawpy.

 

[Lawpy]

To explain my Stagg vote a bit further, other than just giving up and deciding maybe Lawpy was right, and also being horrified while reading Stagg's pushes on his packmates in Sea Monsters...

This type of gamestate where the wolf pack starts out with major hits and then there are multiple misyeets in a row is something I have only really seen in games where there was strong enough bussing to distance the remainder of the pack from the wolf (or wolves) that were going down. That just feels like the kind of game we're in right now.

So...I'm done looking at people who were hedgey on mighty and Vis day 1 or were voting for lucy or whatever. Nah. That's the perspective we've been working from and it has only gotten us dead villagers. This feels like a game where the wolves saw the blood in the water and went deep. Time to shake it up.

Jay and SAR would fit the bill too, much as it pains me to say. Probably need to reaffirm their status in the blocc. I don't want to turn things too hard just yet because we do have a day of space still (hopefully) and I'm not quite ready for full dismantling.

But the POE is clearly wrong.

Other things kind of work into this too - the fact that I'm still alive despite being clear. The difficulty in finding compatibilities in the existing POE. It just feels wrong, and a game shouldn't feel this hard after two wolves dying within the first real cycle.

I'm rambling but hopefully that makes sense.

I mean my POE is currently Staggs, PSV/pshelty +/- mirandas. Alleys’s flip was disappointing but not to the extent that we’d need to dismantle everything.

 

[WildZoo]

Why not PSV. Absolutely could be paired with Miranda. Same goes for Barks, she's just further down the POE. Also Genny, because we need to talk about Genny.

Since you're looking at unpartnering though, if I'm a wolf then who would my partner be? Because I feel like right now the most likely pairing is Miranda/Lawpy.

I don't want to talk about genny 👿

Also would you believe in that moment I thought Lawpy was voting for PSV today lol wish Nate was here to continue his trackers. Gotta remember not to yeet him unless I'm REALLY sure about it in the future.

 

[WildZoo]

I mean my POE is currently Staggs, PSV/pshelty +/- mirandas. Alleys’s flip was disappointing but not to the extent that we’d need to dismantle everything.

Starting the game with two wolf deaths and then going far enough that we're one misyeet from yolo brings out my paranoia.

 

[Lawpy]

Well according to Nates sheet:

You voted Mighty to make a Vis, Mighty, Miranda tie at 2; Lawpy broke it by moving off Miranda to Lucy
You voted Vis to make a Vis/Mighty tie at 3. Santy voted for Lucy to make it a 3-way tie. I made my initial vote on Vis and sat there until self-prez
You voted Mighty to go from Vis 5, Mighty 3, Lucy 4, to a 3 way tie. SAR voted for Mighty to break the tie.
You voted for Vis to make it Mighty/Vis 5 (Lucy dropped to 2). Lawpy moved off Stoat and onto Mighty to break the tie.

Lawpy moved off a vote to break your tie twice. SAR and I placed original votes to break your ties once each. Again, not looking great for Lawpy's VCA...

I remade the tie…

Most humans fear the unknown... - Day 1 Tally

View attachment 367921

Vis (6) - Zenge, AM, Stagg, stoat, Dubz, mighty
miranda (1) - Barky
Dubz ()
Stagg (2) - Nate, Santy
mighty (6) - samac, JJJ, Clem, SAR, miranda, Lawpy
Zenge ()
Santy (1) - Vis
alley ()
Nate ()
lucy (2) - PSV, alley
stoat ()

@Viscernable and @mightyrunner7, you are in the lead!
A tie

18/19 voting
Missing: @lucy.

Vote closes today, 3/17, at 10 PM CDT (~45 minutes).

I'm actually feeling good about this. Quickly glancing over his ISO, I like this more than Vis

Unyeet vis yeet stagg

Most humans fear the unknown... - Day 1 Tally

View attachment 367922

Vis (5) - Zenge, AM, Stagg, stoat, Dubz
miranda (1) - Barky
Dubz ()
Stagg (3) - Nate, Santy, mighty
mighty (6) - samac, JJJ, Clem, SAR, miranda, Lawpy
Zenge ()
Santy (1) - Vis
alley ()
Nate ()
lucy (2) - PSV, alley
stoat ()

@mightyrunner7, you are in the lead!

18/19 voting
Missing: @lucy.

Vote closes today, 3/17, at 10 PM CDT (~30 minutes).

Hmm

Unyeet mighty
Yeet stoaty

Lawpy, I'm not sure what this experiment is, but I'll bite

Unyeet stagg yeet stoaty

Most humans fear the unknown... - Day 1 Tally

View attachment 367924

Vis (5) - Zenge, AM, Stagg, stoat, Dubz
miranda (1) - Barky
Dubz ()
Stagg (2) - Nate, Santy
mighty (5) - samac, JJJ, Clem, SAR, miranda
Zenge ()
Santy (1) - Vis
alley ()
Nate ()
lucy (2) - PSV, alley
stoat (2) - Lawpy, mighty

@Viscernable and @mightyrunner7, you are in the lead!
A tie

18/19 voting
Missing: @lucy.

Vote closes today, 3/17, at 10 PM CDT (~25 minutes).

 

[WildZoo]

Anyway @Stagg737 your partner could be literally anyone, your playstyle makes it nearly impossible for you to have 100% reliable unpartnering interactions lol it's probably not Lawpy, but that's more because of his play philosophies than yours

 

[Stagg737]

I don't want to talk about genny 👿

Also I would you believe in that moment I thought Lawpy was voting for PSV today lol wish Nate was here to continue his trackers. Gotta remember not to yeet him unless I'm REALLY sure about it in the future.

Wat? I think something got jumbled here.

And we need to talk about Genny because only reads on Genny are Genny.

 

[WildZoo]

Wat? I think something got jumbled here.

And we need to talk about Genny because only reads on Genny are Genny.

Extra letter, fixed it

I already said earlier though she seemed fine but also I had a cursed thought

 

[Lawpy]

Wait @Stagg737 are you saying my breaking the initial mighty/vissy tie towards mighty was a bad thing?

 

[Stagg737]

I remade the tie…

According to Nates vote tracker you did not. Dubz remade the tie at 8:09 and you broke it at 8:22:

 

[Stagg737]

Extra letter, fixed it

I already said earlier though she seemed fine but also I had a cursed thought

You said she seemed fine. No one else has a decent read on her. We shouldn't be looking back and evaluating her why?

Also, can you rephrase, I still don't understand the "Also I would you believe in that moment I thought Lawpy was voting for PSV today lol". I don't understand what you mean by "I would you believe"

 

[WildZoo]

Not that every break of the mighty/Vis tie is bad, but keep in mind that one wolf pulling ahead while there's a wolf on the vote is probably better for the pack of and when they flip than both having villagers pile on them

 

[Stagg737]

Wait @Stagg737 are you saying my breaking the initial mighty/vissy tie towards mighty was a bad thing?

No, I'm saying you don't get village credit for it based on the rest of your actions D1.

 

[Lawpy]

No, I'm saying you don't get village credit for it based on the rest of your actions D1.

… which is remaking the mighty/vissy tie by voting offwagon?

 

[WildZoo]

You said she seemed fine. No one else has a decent read on her. We shouldn't be looking back and evaluating her why?

Also, can you rephrase, I still don't understand the "Also I would you believe in that moment I thought Lawpy was voting for PSV today lol". I don't understand what you mean by "I would you believe"

The "I" was the extra letter, like I said, I fixed it

I said I don't want to worry about genny, you can do what you want lol

 

[WildZoo]

Basically was just saying I got things mixed up when I made that initial post and thought Lawpy had voted for PSV today

 

[Lawpy]

Basically was just saying I got things mixed up when I made that initial post and thought Lawpy had voted for PSV today

I did here for at least a few hours before switching away

Going to try

Unyeet Staggs
Yeet PSV/pshelty

Be Glad You’re A Farmer… Day 4 Tally

Stagg ()
alley (3) - Stagg, Dubz, SAR
PSV (2) - miranda, Lawpy

@alleycat03 , you are in the lead!

5/10 voting
Missing: @potentialsheltervet, @alleycat03, @JaggedJimmyJay, @Barkley13, @genny

Vote closes TODAY, 3/23, at 10 PM CDT (~10.25 hours).

 

[WildZoo]

I did here for at least a few hours before switching away

Oh thank god I thought I had totally lost it.

Just mostly lost it, but that's fine

 

[WildZoo]

I'm having a hard time seeing Lawpy's behavior around the d1 vote as compatible with mighty, plus having a hard time seeing it as compatible with his wolfing style, so that on top of AM's read means that like...I'm just not gonna go there. It's not gonna happen. I can't really see a world where it happens.

 

[WildZoo]

A couple other things and then I'm going to bed

 

[WildZoo]

Looking just at wagons, Stagg, stoat, and Dubz I think were in positions that could counter mighty’s wagon. Not saying they’re all in the pack together. PSV’s timing of moving to my wagon when mighty was going down, not when we were tied, seems less likely as a wolf strategy, though I suppose a WIFOM move is possible. Of them, Stagg’s vote movement right when mighty couldn’t be saved is spooky. Santy is another possible bus. Nate being frozen until right at the end getting on mighty’s wagon also feels off.

Super shooketh if there's not a wolf name in here

 

[Lawpy]

Contingency yeet mirandas

 

[Stagg737]

I'm having a hard time seeing Lawpy's behavior around the d1 vote as compatible with mighty, plus having a hard time seeing it as compatible with his wolfing style, so that on top of AM's read means that like...I'm just not gonna go there. It's not gonna happen. I can't really see a world where it happens.

Do you see a world where Lawpy changes his contingency vote from me to Vis after night close but before write-up came out? Because that happened and he's used that to gain village cred.

 

[WildZoo]

Do you see a world where Lawpy changes his contingency vote from me to Vis after night close but before write-up came out? Because that happened and he's used that to gain village cred.

I'd have to look at the context tbh, so that's a tomorrow task if I'm alive

 

[Lawpy]

Ok i want to try this now

Contingency unyeet Staggs
Contingency yeet vissy

night 1 wholly closed. action processing may take some time *squints hopelessly at spreadsheet*

@Stagg737 it happened before N1 was closed

 

[WildZoo]

Stagg: less of a lowposter than I thought, and I feel like there is probably enough content to start to form a read, at least for people with more experience playing him. I want to read his tone as villagey but I have a high index of suspicion for Stagg from him reportedly being hard to catch as a wolf



Sketchballs. This almost reads kinda villagey to me from how comfortable he feels with jokingly acting sus, but I vaguely remember him acting like this while scumming (what game?? No idea) and lots of veterans say he’s hard to tone read.

I felt like this was a good question as Santy’s original post didn’t explicitly say “both easy to read and no bussing meta would be ideal”. The followup argument once that was clear seem like NAI general WW philosophy and I don’t see the relevance to the current game, plus bordered on rude about other players’ skill at times, so I’m not interested in it.

But one thing that’s bugging me is that he early on seemed to be objecting to voting someone based on no-bussing-meta “versus” being an easy read, and this lead into him arguing that no-bussing makes an easy read. Staggs, if you think that makes someone an easy read, what was the holdup with the idea of no-bussing being a good mayor quality? You even recognize this later:

So I don’t get why the argument happened in the first place.

I don’t get the objection to noob!mayor, imo often noobs are more co-operative and less prone to main character syndrome/hero-play BS, and although yeah noobs can be unpredictable to read I think on average noob wolves are caught more often than experienced wolves. Plus they’re fun to watch enjoying being mayor.

Just reminding myself to look at this again tomorrow. Context was a little over 24 hours before the end of d1, Vissy sus had already been mentioned several times and Zenge and AM were both on her (enough to spook any wolf), but it was before anyone had said anything about mighty.

Funny enough it was pretty soon after I said I'd vote for Stagg if I had to pick someone right then.

Tally at the time:
Vis (2) - Zenge, AM
miranda (1) - Lawpy
Dubz (1) - samac

 

[Stagg737]

@Stagg737 it happened before N1 was closed

Ah, fair. I searched for Shorty's posts about night close which was posted at 8:07 that morning saying submissions would be accepted until 10am. Your post was at 10:49. I feel slightly better about that timing, but still have tinfoils.

 

[Stagg737]

Supershorty night close post I was referencing above, still have concerns, but less so:

Night tentatively closed for processing

We will still accept submissions from those we haven’t heard from until 10 AM. If you have submitted an action, consider it set.

 

[WildZoo]

Supershorty night close post I was referencing above, still have concerns, but less so:

Yeah results aren't actually sent until after the official close so it's not like a wolf!Lawpy would have known Vis was dying

 

[WildZoo]

Okay I sleep now

 

[Lawpy]

I’m thinking about the Santy tunnel atm

 

[Stagg737]

I’m thinking about the Santy tunnel atm

Which Santy tunnel?

 

[Lawpy]

Most humans fear the unknown... - Day 1 Tally

View attachment 367914

Vis (4) - Zenge, AM, Stagg, stoat
miranda (1) - Barky
Dubz ()
Stagg ()
mighty (5) - samac, JJJ, Clem, Dubz, SAR
Zenge ()
Santy ()
alley ()
Nate ()
lucy (4) - PSV, Lawpy, alley, miranda
stoat (1) - Santy

@mightyrunner7, you are in the lead!

16/19 voting
Missing: @mightyrunner7, @lucy., @NateTheLesser

Vote closes today, 3/17, at 10 PM CDT (~2 hours).

You know, if lucy is truly inactive it isn't worth using our yeet to flip her

unyeet lucy
yeet mighty

Hmm, this extends the mighty lead by margin of 2.

 

[Lawpy]

Which Santy tunnel?

Santy tunneling mirandas. I feel like mirandas cracked under pressure.

 

[Lawpy]

Yes, I think he’s scummy

He always village reads himself

You know what, here is my bold assertion that he wants

Yeet santy

Hmm

 

[Lawpy]

To elaborate on this, exactly the large difference in play between pasta and fire emblem that people were citing as clear evidence she was a villager on pasta turned out to be correct. She did have a very distinct “don’t be suspicious, fade into the background, be present but never bold” strategy in fire emblem. I recall her saying that she had a hard time faking conviction and village drive to solve as a wolf and would not have been able to fake the play difference people saw in pasta (not in those words, and it’s also possible I’m misremembering something someone else said). Obviously new players improve quickly and she could totally blow us out of the water as a wolf in this game or whatever next one she wolfs in, but I’d go for her as one of the overall easiest reads currently.

This looks like a positive post of mirandas from vissy. The bolded concerns me about the possibility that vissy might have coached a wolf!mirandas to change up her playstyle.

Thing is, that attitude your saying as wolfy for miranda was kinda what she is doing this game IMO.

Unless you think the mayor thingy which was fully fluff-posting is 'bold' for you

Santy counters

I don’t know what you want from me man

It’s barely D1, there hasn’t been anything I’ve felt super strong about

To which mirandas responded defensively

 

[Lawpy]

Okay, I guess I need to address some stuff so I'll do this categorically.

Spoiler: SANTY

Okay, so these first 3 quotes from Santy were when he was pushing against me as mayor. I didn't set out to be mayor, I got a couple votes and then I thought it would be fun.
These comments made by Santy, especially the last, came of really abrasive to me and I was personally upset by that.
I honestly felt like I wasn't even good enough to be playing. I'm trying here, honestly.



This further frustrated me, I've only played 3 games - one in which I was killed the first night. I don't think I have a true meta. But I've said before and I'll say it again, I'm a terrible liar. I'm pretty honest about my feelings. But honestly I'm not going to waste my time writing fluff about every village read because that's just not my play style. I won't apologize for that.



Yes.



I did give my reason too. I read Santy as wolf, I haven't played with him as village, but I have seen him as wolf twice now.



That's not why I'm yeeting you Santy. I'm yeeting you because you I think you are a wolf. You're picking on me, not sussing me, picking on me (see above post).
In fact, the last game we played together where you were a wolf you yeeted me for suspecting you as a wolf. So very hypocritical of you.

End rant.

Spoiler: BARKY

UGH, I'm like 100% sure I mentioned that I was physically and mentally exhausted and that I made an oversight. Forgive me for being an imperfect person.



Again, exhausted and defensive because I felt like I was getting majorly picked on by Santy for no reason.



lol, it's not my play style to give reads on everyone and I did give some village reads too. I definitely don't feel like it was out of nowhere.

miranda sounds villagey

Defense of mirandas by vissy

 

[Lawpy]

@Barkley13 , what are your latest Miranda thoughts? I haven't seen much activity from you recently, and I'm personally putting Miranda in lean village at the moment

Defense of mirandas by mighty

 

[Stagg737]

Lawpy VCA:

D1: Voted for Miranda as second vote of the day. Switched to Lucy to make it Lucy, Mighty, Vis 2; other people 1. Sat on Lucy until 2 hours before close and switched to Stoat to make it Vis 4, Mighty 6, Lucy 2, Stoat 2. 1 minute later Dubz created Vis/Mighty tie. 10 minutes later Lawpy votes Mighty to make it Vis 5, Mighty 6. Moves off Mighty to Stoat to recreate tie of Vis 5, Mighty 5, Stagg 3, Stoat 1. Moves onto me to make it Vis/Mighty 5, Stagg 4 and stays there the rest of the night.

N1: Contingency voted me Friday night. Switched it to contingency vote Vis at 10:49 on Saturday morning. Vis flips wolf.

D2: Lawpy leads Santy wagon. Switches to Alley to make it Santy 4, Alley 3, PSV 1. Switches back to Santy to make it Santy 7, PSV 2, Alley 2.
D3: Ended as the second person on Nate.

So I think I've addressed how I think D1 looks horrible for Lawpy, but I'll say it anyway. He sat on the Lucy counterwagon while 2 wolves were on the board and didn't move off until the wagon was dissipating. Then voted for Mighty until my counterwagon looked valid and then he jumped on me. So that's two times in one day that he voted to move things away from 2 wolf wagons including voting Lucy to make a 3-way 2 with two wolves being the others in the tie, and the other time to put a 3rd vote on my forming wagon when the wolves were tied at 5. There was talk about the voting combined with Mighty's votes is unpairing, but I don't think it is. I think he may have joked on thread that wolves were panicking in wolf chat because they were. D2 was also a bit odd with him switching back and forth, but I think it's notable that Lawpy, Miranda, and PSV all moved off Alley and onto Santy (with Lawpy being the only person to move back to Santy). D3 is meh.

N1 tinfoil? So Dubz addressed it but I'll mention it anyway. Lawpy contingency voted me Friday night then switched to Vis Saturday morning at 10:49. Supershort "tentatively" closed night at 8am, but said they'd accept actions until 10am. Kaydubz "officially" closed night sometime around 11:30 and write-up wasn't out until after 1pm. I thought wolves may have gotten night results after close but before write-up, which means wolves would have known Vis was killed, and Lawpy could change his vote to try and gain credit. Looking back at timing, I don't think he could have done this, but not 100% sure.

Analysis: D1 was a mess and I see it as looking pretty terrible as VCA. Based on VCA, lean wolf.

 

[Lawpy]

These are the posts that made me raise some eyebrows.


Just seemed off tone wise and overly defensive

Seems like trying to shade without looking like shading (“I think it’s interesting”) and also without verifying

Also seems overly defensive

This seemed retaliatory and like it came out of nowhere after previously only mentioning Lucy and alley from what I see

Also this looks like barky was trying to case mirandas but mighty’s asking for updated thoughts from barky and stating his own village read of mirandas makes me wonder whether mighty was trying to subtly sway barky away from mirandas

 

[Lawpy]

Then voted for Mighty until my counterwagon looked valid and then he jumped on me.

I didn’t switch to you from mighty. I went to stoaty then to you.

 

[Lawpy]

@Stagg737 did you post a mirandas VCA?

 

[Lawpy]

Miranda VCA:

D1: Voted Santy early in a somewhat retaliatory manner. Vis had 2 votes and Zenge, Stagg, Miranda, Mighty, and Santy had 1. Later, unvotes Santy to make count Vis 4, Mighty 3, Lucy 3. Then 45 minutes later she votes for Lucy 15 minutes after Alley did to make the count Vis 4, Mighty 3, Lucy 5. 2 hours before close, switches her vote to Mighty where she stayed until close to make count Vis 4, Mighty 6, Lucy 3. Shortly after that Dubz unvoted Mighty and Lawpy voted Mighty.

D2: Voted Alley to make it Alley 4, Santy 4, PSV 1. Later moved voted to Santy to make it Santy 9, Alley 1, PSV 2. Interesting to note that Miranda and Lawpy switched their vote to follow each other within an hour of both of these votes.

D3: Miranda ended up 2/3 on Barks with PSV and Clem.

This VCA looks pretty bad. The initial retaliatory vote on Santy can be nooby WIFOM, but even disregarding that this does not look good. She was on the Lucy counterwagon with both Lawpy and Alley which actually put Lucy in the lead and moved to Mighty with Lawpy when the Lucy wagon was dying. I could see her parking her vote there to not attract more negative attention as a noob wolf and gain some village cred. On D2, she did create a tie on Alley, but did eventually switch to Santy with Lawpy. D3 is meh.

I could definitely see this being the voting patter of a noob wolf who was unsure what to do having 2 packmates as leading wagons pretty early into D1. There's a lot of mirroring with Lawpy as well, which I didn't notice before. Based on votes, I also think it's unlikely but not impossible for her to be in a pack with Alley. If Alley flips village, Miranda would move up on my POE.

Analysis based on VCA is wolf lean.

Hmm interesting

 

[Stagg737]

Update current reads/POE from most wolfy to village based on VCA:

POE: Lawpy/Miranda>>PSV

Barks- neutral to slight village lean
Dubz - village lean
JJJ/SAR- village lean

Genny ????

I think the pack that makes the most sense at this point is Lawpy/Miranda. I'll go back and do some actual analysis of posting later, but I don't see JJJ or SAR in a pack. Same goes with Dubz, just with slightly less confidence. I think Barks is more likely village based on VCA and claimed use of her abilities, but I could also see her in a pack with Lawpy. I also need to go back and actually iso/evaluate Genny, because there's not much to go on with her and I keep forgetting about her until she posts, which imo is not good this late into the game.

If people want me to do a VCA on myself, I can, but imo it's pretty straightforward and arguments against my VCA are basically "but, but, deepwolf!" Which I can't really argue against if that's where people will get stuck.

 

[Stagg737]

@Stagg737 did you post a mirandas VCA?

I did, it was not good.