StardeWW Valley - GAME THREAD

Started by supershorty
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And now you're all reading this and talking about what to say to make me look crazy

I'm not crazy, you're crazy, I'm the last happy little animal left on this farm

Deadchat please save me
 
Truenamer said:
I honestly have no idea what to do, I'm terrified and feel like I'm surrounded

Like, is it preferable to side with the wolves and try and work with them to hunt out the cult leader? But then the wolves win in most scenarios. If the cult leader dies, do the cultists revert? Do they get a new leader? How does converting wolves work?

The night there was a double kill, did that have something to do with the cult? Why would the cult need a double kill, they're already so powerful!

Maybe they can only convert every other night, and there are only two cultists right now (leader + 1 recruit)?
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Fwiw I expect 3-4 villagers at least. If you're assuming 3 cultists + 2 wolves we'd be at wolf wincon.
 
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bluestoat said:
Fwiw I expect 3-4 villagers at least. If you're assuming 3 cultists + 2 wolves we'd be at wolf wincon.
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Assuming a Cult conversion every other night and only one wolf left, we could have at very most 4 villagers, yes. Okay. I'm going to try and be calm.
 
I'm really malding at how clever the moddesses were with this because the whole thing with Stardew Valley is that there's an evil corporation moving in and taking over and you have to fight for the "village" to support it and it fits so well with cults, but I just assumed that the wolves would all be flavor-aligned with the corporation. So obvious in retrospect, it fits so well
 
SportPonies said:
I want to yeet dubz again.
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Stop
Truenamer said:
I love Dubz but her positive and helpful energy along with voting record mean nothing if she's been a cheerful, wholesome CULT LEADER this entire time 😢
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Stop
My positive and helpful energy is NAI.
I would have recruited sporty.
The end.
 
WildZoo said:
True did all the scenario maths which is the only kind of math I enjoy. So i am going to evaluate it.
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Key note: These are only scenarios considering a 1 conversion per night rate, and I have absolutely no clue how converting wolves works.
 
Truenamer said:
Let's math this out.

Okay, the Wolves can't convert. Period. I'm deciding this, because the game is unwinnable if they can, so I'm proceeding with the assumption that they can't. (Also, hey guys, truce? Like, for just a few nights? Can we truce?)

Given the starting size of the game, we reasonably could have had 2 or 3 wolves (based on what I'm reading in forums (glad my boss can't see this)). Because there's a powerful 3P I'm inclined to guess fewer wolves, but I really have no clue and would love advice (except ALL YOUR ADVICE IS TAINTED BECAUSE I'M SURROUNDED BY WOLVES AND CULTISTS). We got one, so there are now 1 or 2 wolves remaining. (And they saved our asses, thank you fell beasts).

Okay, if the Cult Leader can convert every night, there are 1+3-1= 3 Cultists including the Leader.

There are currently 7 players left. That means that worst case scenario there could be 2 villagers left, in which case you're all laughing at this writeup in Wolfchat and Cultchat. Speaking of which, I finally got a PM! With Stoaty (big shock). Going to be really "funny" if we're the last two villagers.

Question 1: Can the Cult Leader convert wolves? We know that there's still one wolf left at least, unless the wolf kill resolved and then the last wolf was converted, but that's a headache. How does the action/ability stack work in this game?

Game scenarios moving forward for everyone's information, from best to worst:

Scenario 1: We yeet the Cult Leader and the wolves eat a Cultist; there is no conversion. 5 Players left on D5, 1-2 Wolves, 1 Cultist, 2-3 Villagers. Village has a narrow chance of winning.

Scenario 2: If there's 1 wolf left, then we could yeet a Cultist and they eat a Cultist, then the Cultists convert the last wolf. D5 there are 2 Cultists and 3 Villagers. We'd have to then exactly pick the cult leader.

Scenario 3: We yeet the last wolf, the cultists convert one of us (assuming 3 Villagers. Cultists win.

Scenarios 4-5: We yeet a villager. Doesn't matter what else happens, either wolves or cultists will inevitably win (especially if there are only 2 villagers left).
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If you're faking this village energy I'm impressed lol

Agree starting wolf pack more likely 2 with the existence of the cult. Does depend a bit on cult recruitment rate but 4 non-village in a 14 is already almost 30% non-village, which feels high given that a single recruitment would flip it to 35%. So likely one wolf remaining.

A bit hinges too on what you asked on whether the cult is even able to recruit a wolf, which is usually not possible (see the mafiascum wiki page i posted earlier).

We need to yeet the cult leader or a cultist today, unless they couldn't recruit nightly or had failed recruitments.
 
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WildZoo said:
If you're faking this village energy I'm impressed lol

Agree starting wolf pack more likely 2 with the existence of the cult. Does depend a bit on cult recruitment rate but 4 non-village in a 14 is already almost 30% non-village, which feels high given that a single recruitment would flip it to 35%. So likely one wolf remaining.

A bit hinges too on what you asked on whether the cult is even able to recruit a wolf, which is usually not possible (see the mafiascum wiki page i posted earlier).

We need to yeet the cult leader or a cultist today, unless they couldn't recruit nightly or had failed recruitments.
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The conversion protector died N1, but jailing should also protect against conversion, right? Or prevent it if the Cult Leader is the one being jailed.

So we have a chance. The game is winnable with tight play (and I'm really holding out hope that at least one of the remaining villagers has a PR better than mine)
 
SportPonies said:
I’m windmilling wildly between “those posts were villagey” and “I can never trust dubz”. We’re apparently on the downswing again.
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This is an unfortunate time for paranoia

SportPonies said:
Leading villagers into the mouths of wolves is not helpful, Dubbie.
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I only do that sometimes!
 
Truenamer said:
The conversion protector died N1, but jailing should also protect against conversion, right? Or prevent it if the Cult Leader is the one being jailed.

So we have a chance. The game is winnable with tight play (and I'm really holding out hope that at least one of the remaining villagers has a PR better than mine)
Click to expand...
Theoretically yes but jailer died d1 and we don't know when exactly cubs acquired the ability. So potential for n1 jailing if he did get it then and got really lucky.
 
I can't pull the quote right now (due to the job I'm technically doing right now) but AM made several comments about how much she hates being converted

In retrospect it feels like she was dropping a big hint
 
I guess the core question for today is,

Do we prioritize finding the wolf, or the cult leader?

I think the answer is "cult leader" but I have no clue how to do that.
 
Truenamer said:
I guess the core question for today is,

Do we prioritize finding the wolf, or the cult leader?

I think the answer is "cult leader" but I have no clue how to do that.
Click to expand...
I'm going to look at AM's confident villagers and discard focus on Dubz for now.

Barkley for wolfly, Sporty or you or Genny for cult (absent an ISO or any real thinking)
 
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If I'm trying to get into the brain of the Cult Leader, I would think AM was recruited before kdswg flipped. You wouldn't want to recruit someone who was so clear that they were likely to get nightkilled soon.

UNLESS the Cult Leader is barks in which case that might have been a recruitment to get AM off of her case.
 
WildZoo said:
If I'm trying to get into the brain of the Cult Leader, I would think AM was recruited before kdswg flipped. You wouldn't want to recruit someone who was so clear that they were likely to get nightkilled soon.

UNLESS the Cult Leader is barks in which case that might have been a recruitment to get AM off of her case.
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Would AM list Barks as her next priority after Bob if she was a cultist and Barks the leader? Seems a little unlike her to work against her wincon
 
WildZoo said:
If I'm trying to get into the brain of the Cult Leader, I would think AM was recruited before kdswg flipped. You wouldn't want to recruit someone who was so clear that they were likely to get nightkilled soon.

UNLESS the Cult Leader is barks in which case that might have been a recruitment to get AM off of her case.
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I don't think AM was fully off the Barkswagon, though? Going to have to do an ISO on AM this evening, I think her posts are going to be the crux of this.
 
bluestoat said:
Would AM list Barks as her next priority after Bob if she was a cultist and Barks the leader? Seems a little unlike her to work against her wincon
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I was about to say I'd need to go back and see if AM backed off on barks at all.

But also not sure about order of ops and whether it would have been possible for AM to be recruited last night, and then died. Believe that happened in shorty's noob game too.
 
I can accept her wolf hunting as genuine-ish because it benefits her new alignment.

I am less sure that her village pool is the same.

I think people who were less active on the thread would be worth reviewing. Yesterday felt like a me-True-AM fest with later Sporty and Dubz appearances
 
bluestoat said:
Would AM list Barks as her next priority after Bob if she was a cultist and Barks the leader? Seems a little unlike her to work against her wincon
Click to expand...
Truenamer said:
I don't think AM was fully off the Barkswagon, though? Going to have to do an ISO on AM this evening, I think her posts are going to be the crux of this.
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The thought occurs to me that she could have been setting herself up to "change her mind," but that's vaguely bus-ish, right? Don't want to think AM would do that. I have a hard time seeing Barks being the cult leader given her focus.
 
bluestoat said:
I can accept her wolf hunting as genuine-ish because it benefits her new alignment.

I am less sure that her village pool is the same.

I think people who were less active on the thread would be worth reviewing. Yesterday felt like a me-True-AM fest with later Sporty and Dubz appearances
Click to expand...
I'll put my foot down on that. Activity level is NAI and I don't see why a Cult Leader, who needs to hunt wolves too, would be less active than anyone else anyway.
 
Truenamer said:
The thought occurs to me that she could have been setting herself up to "change her mind," but that's vaguely bus-ish, right? Don't want to think AM would do that. I have a hard time seeing Barks being the cult leader given her focus.
Click to expand...
It would also look really weird for her to suddenly be like "jk barks is village"
 
SportPonies said:
This focus on mechanics probably has AM rolling in her grave and I think that’s funny given that it’s about her.
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I mean, what else are we supposed to do? Mechanics feel extremely important right now and the thread is generally a graveyard so we don't have much to work with.
 
7 players

These are all predicated on one remaining wolf. Again, 3 wolves and a Cult Leader seems unlikely to me for a game this size, so I'm not considering it. Also leaning towards looking at worst case scenarios, of course there are others where the wolves kill the cult leader/cultist or recruitment fails or whatever.

If we misyeet, 4:1:1, risks losing a villager to wolf kill and to recruitment, making it 2:1:2 tomorrow, which is a fun situation because idk if wolf wincon necessitates getting rid of the Cult or just reaching parity with village.
If we yeet the wolf, then it would be potentially 4:2 tomorrow with successful recruitment.
If we yeet the Cult Leader, 4:1 tomorrow.
So in this scenario, we have some breathing room.

If we misyeet, a villager dies overnight, and another is recruited, 2:1:3 and cult wins
If we yeet the wolf and recruitment is successful, 3:3 and cult wins
If we yeet the Cult Leader and a villager dies overnight, 2:1:1 tomorrow or...something, idk what would happen to the Cultist
If we yeet the Cultist, a villager dies overnight, and successful recruitment, 2:1:2 tomorrow which is the same as scenario 1a

If we misyeet, Cult wins
If we yeet the wolf, Cult wins
If we yeet the Cult Leader and a villager dies overnight, 2:1:2 tomorrow, which is the same as scenario 1a.
If we yeet a Cultist, a villager dies overnight, and successful recruitment, 2:1:3, Cult wins.

Some things also depend on what happens to the Cultists if the Cult Leader dies...
I think these are correct.
 
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WildZoo said:
I think based on math worst-case scenario means we have to yeet the Cult Leader today to have a shot, middle case we can yeet the Cult Leader or a Cultist, best case we should probably just...not...misyeet...
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Pretty sure if we misyeet it's over, yeah, unless there are powers at work that can fix things or give us an edge.

When it comes to looking for cultists, votes are not tremendously helpful, right?
 
Truenamer said:
Pretty sure if we misyeet it's over, yeah, unless there are powers at work that can fix things or give us an edge.

When it comes to looking for cultists, votes are not tremendously helpful, right?
Click to expand...
I would imagine that it's not. If they can't convert wolf faction then they would want to yeet wolves
 
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