The ultimate COVID thread

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JustOnePing said:
No. I don't argue that it first appeared in China circa 2002 where it crossed over from a bat to a human naturally causing the bigger outbreak in 2003 as reported by WHO. I'm talking about its history of being leaked out of a lab in 2004 at that tail end of that 2002-2004 SARS outbreak due to cross-contamination.
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and why would that even be relevant to anything?
 
Stock market live updates: Dow futures up 800, Nasdaq futures up 3.5%, bottom in?

This week or next week will likely put in the market bottom if we turn the corner on Covid 19. That means cases start leveling off and that could occur by this weekend. Once Covid 19 deaths start leveling off that should help alleviate the strain on most hospitals except for maybe 3-4 urban areas like NYC.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Stock market live updates: Dow futures up 800, Nasdaq futures up 3.5%, bottom in?

This week or next week will likely put in the market bottom if we turn the corner on Covid 19. That means cases start leveling off and that could occur by this weekend. Once Covid 19 deaths start leveling off that should help alleviate the strain on most hospitals except for maybe 3-4 urban areas like NYC.
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Cases dropping in Europe and na. I think this marked the end of 2500 for sp. It'll be a steady climb from here
 
ooh a bean said:
I find it interesting how all of the people posting anti-CCP/China rhetoric on this thread are either medical students or are completely unverified while all the people quashing these conspiracy theories are actual verified attending physicians. 🤔
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This Chinese coronavirus is plaguing the world because China intentionally allowed its spread so as to bring other markets down together with its own.
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
I don't see the point of continually bringing these up. We know everybody from both parties was basically caught with their pants down, and that's goes for both past and present. I don't like either party so it's not going to offend me, but it's been beaten to death at this point. If pretty much everybody screwed up, then maybe nobody screwed up that badly.
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The novel Chinese coronavirus has presented a formidable challenge, and though I think our federal government could have done a lot better, it stepped up its game decently quickly.

Interesting, though, that beacons of enlightened liberalism like NYC, NJ, and CA have been hit so hard. Especially after people like DeBlasio and the NYC health commissioner urged people to go to Chinese New Year celebrations/parades so as to demonstrate their wokeness and tolerance.
 
radsisrad said:
The novel Chinese coronavirus has presented a formidable challenge, and though I think our federal government could have done a lot better, it stepped up its game decently quickly.

Interesting, though, that beacons of enlightened liberalism like NYC, NJ, and CA have been hit so hard. Especially after people like DeBlasio and the NYC health commissioner urged people to go to Chinese New Year celebrations/parades so as to demonstrate their wokeness and tolerance.
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California's infection rate is about 1/3 the national average and their death rate is about 1/4 the national average.
 
Mman said:
California's infection rate is about 1/3 the national average and their death rate is about 1/4 the national average.
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www.worldometers.info

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

I like this site. Assuming accuracy, there are some really interesting data trends. NY and NJ lead the pack in prevalence, and Louisiana's cases are probably more or less due to New Orleans. You are right about CA's cases/population ratio.
 
FFP said:
I'm sorry, did you say both parties? I must have missed the part about this being a coalition government.

There is exactly one group of people who didn't take this pandemic seriously until the middle of March, and exactly one shameless party that constantly refuses to admit that the former are unfit to govern, and who's been accomplice to 4 years of failures. I have seen banana republics with better leaderships.

They had more than 3 years to fix whatever the Obama government had missed, if only their government weren't full of political appointees, "acting" nobodies and unfilled positions left behind by competent career professionals they fire for being competent and incorruptible.
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:eyeroll:

Country was doing all right before COVID19.

Were you one of those who trusted Krugman when he predicted a stock market crash consequent to Trump's election?
 
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MirrorTodd said:
Taking up an ICU bed, but I get it. He's the leader of the country.
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He's probably doing worse. Moving him to the ICU has all kinds of bad political consequences, so I don't think the decision was taken lightly.
 
FFP said:
He's probably doing worse. Moving him to the ICU has all kinds of bad political consequences, so I don't think the decision was taken lightly.
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definitely doing worse, even if not at normal ICU badness, no reason to move him to ICU if not doing a bit worse at least
 
The stock market appears to be getting ahead of itself a bit today. Fair Value of 2600/2700 assumes a lot of optimism about a recovery in 2020. I am neither a seller or buyer at these levels. I would like to buy just a little if we get back to 2400; otherwise I am going to wait for the "all clear" sign as the market begins to build a base at 2600 (trading range of 2500-2650).


Dow soars 1,600 points as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appears to slow
 
  • Stocks bounded higher as investors found hope in early signs the number of coronavirus cases may be peaking.
  • After the ripping decline in stocks since February, the market has regained 20% and analysts debate whether a bottom has been found.
  • The peak in viruses would mean that it would be possible to see a reopening of the economy on the horizon and the market will then have to absorb changes in the economy.
Once we see a peak in cases late next week I think the market will stabilize; An S and P in the 2600-2700 range does seem likely once we level off and the slope begins to decline.

A lot of damage has been done to this economy and even if we re-open by end of May/June the hit to GDP will be enormous. I know traders will look past the next 2 quarters but even so a 10% increase from these levels in the stock market really would be amazing considering the dire straights this economy is in.
 
1586206846385.png
 
This market is so overpriced there are no words. Consumer spending will drop immensely after all this is over. People will get "financial" PTSD from it, like those who lived during the Great Recession. The numbers won't be bad just because of staying at home; they will stay bad because people will become cautious, afraid that another wave can come anytime (for example, when we let people out).

And we haven't seen foreclosures etc. yet. Those will come too, if we can't reopen the economy by June.
 
FFP said:
This market is so overpriced there are no words. Consumer spending will drop immensely after all this is over. People will get "financial" PTSD from it, like those who lived during the Great Recession. The numbers won't be bad just because of staying at home; they will stay bad because people will become cautious, afraid that another wave can come anytime (for example, when we let people out).

And we haven't seen foreclosures etc. yet. Those will come too, if we can't reopen the economy by June.
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I think that is the most likely scenario.

The alternative is that we print so much money and a chunk of it winds up in the stock market further elevating prices. We only cut back when we have significant inflation.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
 
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nimbus said:
But will it be short term? Many people will be broke or in debt.
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I think by definition it will be short term. This is a pandemic shocking the economy, not an economic shock. It'd be akin to a massive but short lasting war. Rates of job growth will be as record setting as they have been on the job loss side. And remember, this article is pointing out what happens if companies make no money for several years and how relatively little that should impact a stock price.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
I don't see the point of continually bringing these up. We know everybody from both parties was basically caught with their pants down, and that's goes for both past and present. I don't like either party so it's not going to offend me, but it's been beaten to death at this point. If pretty much everybody screwed up, then maybe nobody screwed up that badly.
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Bush was bad at a lot of things, but he actually was very competent at planning for a pandemic. Everyone else around him wasn't exactly as enthusiastic
 
FFP said:
This market is so overpriced there are no words. Consumer spending will drop immensely after all this is over. People will get "financial" PTSD from it, like those who lived during the Great Recession. The numbers won't be bad just because of staying at home; they will stay bad because people will become cautious, afraid that another wave can come anytime (for example, when we let people out).

And we haven't seen foreclosures etc. yet. Those will come too, if we can't reopen the economy by June.
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the financial statements for a lot of stocks are going to be horrendous.
fools rush in
 
yes closing everything will cause a lot of things to go down. but the question this time is how will the fed's response change things. they have moved at rapid pace, pumping in an insane amount of money into the system. many peoples checks will be higher than their normal salary. the question is how this will all affect the economy, especially if this is short term. we may quickly come back stronger than ever by early next year
 
anbuitachi said:
yes closing everything will cause a lot of things to go down. but the question this time is how will the fed's response change things. they have moved at rapid pace, pumping in an insane amount of money into the system. many peoples checks will be higher than their normal salary. the question is how this will all affect the economy, especially if this is short term. we may quickly come back stronger than ever by early next year
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Pumping an insane amount of created from nothing money isn't much of a cure; more like a dilution and a tax on those holding cash. Not just here, but a majority of fiat currencies are pushing it to the edge. As Doze said it will find its way into the market to some unknown extent, but at what major cost. As for today I don't put much meaning into the market being up 1600. Big days up or down will be with us for a while.
 
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FFP said:
This market is so overpriced there are no words. Consumer spending will drop immensely after all this is over. People will get "financial" PTSD from it, like those who lived during the Great Recession. The numbers won't be bad just because of staying at home; they will stay bad because people will become cautious, afraid that another wave can come anytime (for example, when we let people out).

And we haven't seen foreclosures etc. yet. Those will come too, if we can't reopen the economy by June.
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I don't think Trump can go past June because the economy can't handle it. Even if he reopens the USA for business we will see 50% of the usual economic activity in many sectors like Restaurants, Hotels, Airlines, etc. So, Mr. Market has NOT priced that in yet and once it does the low of 2200 will get retested IMHO. Some of these layoffs/unemployment will drag on well past June/July into the winter.
 
Would you be willing to invest in a Cruise Stock for the long term? Back in 2008/2009 buying a Bank Stock was a pretty good investment provided you bought at the low. As for me, I am not willing to wait the 3-5 years for those stocks to recover. I think the Airlines will recover before the Cruise Industry but I am not buying those either.



TD Ameritrade’s JJ Kinahan said Royal Caribbean and Carnival Corp. have been two stocks that the brokerage firm’s millennial clients have added to their portfolio in the month of March.

“At first you might be like, ‘Oh my god, that seems like a terrible idea,’” Kinahan, the firm’s chief market strategist, said on “Closing Bell.”

“But again, if you’re a millennial client you may look at that and say, ‘Longer term, these make sense to me.’”

The younger investors particularly started to add exposure to the cruise lines in the last two weeks of the month, Kinahan added in a follow-up call.

In addition to a long-term belief that the cruise lines could recover from their coronavirus-driven sell-offs, Kinahan said younger clients may be interested in the stocks for a personal reason.

“They may be some of the first customers who are willing to jump back in to do cruises,” he said.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Would you be willing to invest in a Cruise Stock for the long term? Back in 2008/2009 buying a Bank Stock was a pretty good investment provided you bought at the low. As for me, I am not willing to wait the 3-5 years for those stocks to recover. I think the Airlines will recover before the Cruise Industry but I am not buying those either.



TD Ameritrade’s JJ Kinahan said Royal Caribbean and Carnival Corp. have been two stocks that the brokerage firm’s millennial clients have added to their portfolio in the month of March.

“At first you might be like, ‘Oh my god, that seems like a terrible idea,’” Kinahan, the firm’s chief market strategist, said on “Closing Bell.”

“But again, if you’re a millennial client you may look at that and say, ‘Longer term, these make sense to me.’”

The younger investors particularly started to add exposure to the cruise lines in the last two weeks of the month, Kinahan added in a follow-up call.

In addition to a long-term belief that the cruise lines could recover from their coronavirus-driven sell-offs, Kinahan said younger clients may be interested in the stocks for a personal reason.

“They may be some of the first customers who are willing to jump back in to do cruises,” he said.
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cruises will be hit hard for a while i believe. but i think airlines will rebound much faster. people use airplanes for a reason, but alternatives suck. a lot of workers need to fly for work. and americans love going on vacation.
 
JobsFan said:
the financial statements for a lot of stocks are going to be horrendous.
fools rush in
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those upcoming financial statements are why the stock market tanked. It does not mean it needs to tank further.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Strict Isolation, a 32% collapse, and quite possibly no or minimal public health benefit vs Herd Immunity and a minimal 4% slowdown.
Are we drinking Koolaide?

www.nationalreview.com

Has Sweden Found the Right Solution to the Coronavirus? | National Review

Unlike other countries, it has so far avoided both isolation and economic ruin.
www.nationalreview.com www.nationalreview.com
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Have a look at the shapes of the graphs on world o meter for Australia (very serious about flattening curve) vs UK, USA, or sweden.

whether we are just delaying the inevitable or going to have economic collapse before a vaccine is another issue.
 
FFP said:
I'm sorry, did you say both parties? I must have missed the part about this being a coalition government.

There is exactly one group of people who didn't take this pandemic seriously until the middle of March, and exactly one shameless party that constantly refuses to admit that the former are unfit to govern, and who's been accomplice to 4 years of failures. I have seen banana republics with better leaderships.

They had more than 3 years to fix whatever the Obama government had missed, if only their government weren't full of political appointees, "acting" nobodies and unfilled positions left behind by competent career professionals they fire for being competent and incorruptible.
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Correct, I said both parties because both parties failed. I don't give the state and local control of NY a pass because they aren't the president. They failed. Previous administration as well.
 
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Sweden has the correct approach IMHO. I would follow Sweden's model starting in May. The USA should continue the self quarantine until May then open back up for business like Sweden. The elderly, frail, immunocompromised, etc can still self-quarantine but the young and those healthy under the age of 50 can go back to work.

I am not saying "business as usual" because we should still have a limit on gatherings, still wear a mask at times and practice good, responsible habits. But, the economy needs to function again even if reduced from pre-Covid 19 levels.
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Correct, I said both parties because both parties failed. I don't give the state and local control of NY a pass because they aren't the president. They failed. Previous administrations as well.
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I was talking about the national parties, because they are the ones who impact most of us. I couldn't care less of what the governor of NY does or doesn't, unless I live in the state.

Let's not mention all the *****ic governors who did not order people to stay at home, because they were afraid of the supreme leader. That's beyond bad leadership, that's just criminal. But whoever voted them in deserves them.

The federal government has had 3 years to do its job. Only bad leaders (mostly in banana republics) blame their predecessors, like a bad workman blaming his tools. A lot of our federal leaders are just incompetent amoral sycophantic people. It's like this WH wants to prove the Peter principle every day. Unfortunately, (their) character is (our) destiny.

One month in, we still don't have a coherent well-coordinated federal pandemic response; the Defense Production Act invocation is just PR, and big corporations basically still do whatever the heck they want/think, while sucking trillions from the middle-class breast. And, most concerning, the WH keeps lying and lying about the realities in the field; it must be 1984 in their "alternative" universe.

I have a new motto for the MAGA people: INMR (It's Not My Responsibility). A national emergency is a federal responsibility, by definition.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
Sweden has the correct approach IMHO. I would follow Sweden's model starting in May. The USA should continue the self quarantine until May then open back up for business like Sweden. The elderly, frail, immunocompromised, etc can still self-quarantine but the young and those healthy under the age of 50 can go back to work.

I am not saying "business as usual" because we should still have a limit on gatherings, still wear a mask at times and practice good, responsible habits. But, the economy needs to function again even if reduced from pre-Covid 19 levels.
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Sweden is a few weeks away from a tsunami. Mark my words.

They already have 7000+ cases, which is the equivalent of the US having 220,000, and the numbers are not growing exponentially yet (suggesting that they are not testing enough people).
 
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FFP said:
Sweden is a few weeks away from a tsunami. Mark my words.

They already have 7000+ cases, which is the equivalent of the US having 220,000, and the numbers are not growing exponentially yet (suggesting that they are not testing enough people).
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but its not going to affect US economy much. investors have high confidence now
 
FFP said:
They will have high confidence until time proves them wrong. Be afraid when others are greedy, and greedy when they are afraid.
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will see. ny has the largest jump in deaths. and stock continues to skyrocket. we will see how much higher it goes..
 
BLADEMDA said:
Sweden has the correct approach IMHO. I would follow Sweden's model starting in May. The USA should continue the self quarantine until May then open back up for business like Sweden. The elderly, frail, immunocompromised, etc can still self-quarantine but the young and those healthy under the age of 50 can go back to work.

I am not saying "business as usual" because we should still have a limit on gatherings, still wear a mask at times and practice good, responsible habits. But, the economy needs to function again even if reduced from pre-Covid 19 levels.
Click to expand...

Where will the frail and elderly self quarantine? In a nursing home? Have you seen what has happened in nursing homes here, in Spain, and in France?
 
anbuitachi said:
was just gonna post this!

insane. meanwhil 50% of the population will say its fake news
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We’ve transitioned past that point where it doesn’t matter if it’s “fake” or not. Even if something is obviously unethical or wrong, trump and the rest of the machine just pull an Orwell and say it’s right. Bing bang boom.
 
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