The ultimate COVID thread

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Except Zero interest rates and Federal Reserve asset purchases will distort. The creative destruction of capitalism will be blunted and will slow economic growth long term. That is probably the best case scenario. Money printing will have consequences. Just not sure what or when.
Haven’t heard what other countries (capitalist and otherwise) are doing as they are undoubtedly dealing with similar issues. Anyone have insight here? If every country behaves in similar fashion (money printing), are we really devaluing ourselves as much as we think?

I guess we care the most about strength of dollar relative to china but what about Japan and EU. How are they handling this? Apologies for entry level question and appreciate any answer.
 
Haven’t heard what other countries (capitalist and otherwise) are doing as they are undoubtedly dealing with similar issues. Anyone have insight here? If every country behaves in similar fashion (money printing), are we really devaluing ourselves as much as we think?

I guess we care the most about strength of dollar relative to china but what about Japan and EU. How are they handling this? Apologies for entry level question and appreciate any answer.
Of course nobody else does it, not on this scale. It's a huge bet on the fact that other (developed) countries will keep buying the dollars we print.

Throwing trillions at the problem has nothing to do with national security. We have NEVER been so deep in national debt, even just relative to GDP (not absolute numbers). It's all about the elections and PR (and also about passing on tremendous wealth to their cronies, while in power). By the time the hoi-polloi figure out that their money buys much less, the election will have passed. Deja vu in banana republics.

You are watching the fall of the empire. It will take decades, but it's clearly happening, unless something major changes. Just look at the British Empire, who used to be us just about a century ago.
 
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Except Zero interest rates and Federal Reserve asset purchases will distort. The creative destruction of capitalism will be blunted and will slow economic growth long term. That is probably the best case scenario. Money printing will have consequences. Just not sure what or when.

short term distortions of the long term outcome are why stock prices should gently drift up and down. It's usually just emotional panic/craziness that make them shoot up or down by large amounts in a short term.
 
By the time the hoi-polloi figure out that their money buys much less, the election will have passed.

We can figure out how much our money buys by monitoring inflation which has been staggeringly low for a long time.
 
We can figure out how much our money buys by monitoring inflation which has been staggeringly low for a long time.
That's only because other countries are still interested in buying our products (and money). That will not last forever.

The consequences of our government's reckless behavior haven't caught up with us yet. One can't quadruple the national debt and expect the buying power of the dollar to not drop:


600px-US_National_Debt_public_intergovernmental.png


 
As long as the dollar buys hard assets it has real value. That means gold, real estate, cars, fancy watches, iPhones, TVs, etc.

As long as the world will accept our currency the game will continue. Debt only matters when it matters in 20,40 or 80 years. Until then that dollar is as real as bitcoin and one can buy a lot of stuff with it.

Stocks are primed to go up because of zero interest rates, massive QE and 2-3 trillion in stimulus. The Fed is forcing you to buy equities.

All I can say is that stocks have gone up 20 percent relatively quickly over just a few days. That’s a lot of money. Don’t fight the Fed.
 
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Fundrise has suspended redemptions. Not a good sign for real estate.

There is no way real estate is not going south by the time we are done. There will be foreclosures and evictions, no doubt about it. Houses may become cheap again.

Let's not forget that the trillions have been thrown at the corporations, not the workers. Many of them will just enjoy keeping the extra cash and not re-employing as many people. Many of them will have changed their business practices to allow for more telework, which may be offshored.
 
Haven’t heard what other countries (capitalist and otherwise) are doing as they are undoubtedly dealing with similar issues. Anyone have insight here? If every country behaves in similar fashion (money printing), are we really devaluing ourselves as much as we think?

I guess we care the most about strength of dollar relative to china but what about Japan and EU. How are they handling this? Apologies for entry level question and appreciate any answer.


Yes. It is called the stagnation and low economic growth that Japan and some EU economies have undergone for the last decade.
 
Unfortunately when all of this comes apart it will be blamed on Corona Virus and not the systematic propping up and can kicking for 40 years now. All of the Fed QEs are nothing more than printing gobs of counterfeit money. It's clearly monetary inflation regardless of what the jimmied inflation indexes say. We are in a collapse. Prices should be cratering. If prices stay flat because of endless printing... that's clearly inflation.

No doubt the printing being done at this scale can do a lot to prop up the nominal value of the stock market, and no doubt the wealthy will be the least affected while the small guy that lost his job will also see prices not reflect the state of the current economy. I hate Socialism, but I hate the hypocrisy even more that when a crisis threatens the well off Socialism for them is now acceptable. About as equally frustrating as none of the politicians that preach fiscal responsibility actually ever practice fiscal responsibility.

People will say to me, well we have to do something. Hey, the time to do something was before the house caught fire or at least before it was burnt down to ashes. We are so used to being "saved" by smoke and mirrors from the government and the Fed they don't realized how propped up the whole show is. I remain way way more concerned about the economy than the virus.

 
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Gold (which I hate being the gold standard being that it's utility is low) is indicating what money printing on a colossal scale will do to the dollar's intrinsic worth.

 
Haven’t heard what other countries (capitalist and otherwise) are doing as they are undoubtedly dealing with similar issues. Anyone have insight here? If every country behaves in similar fashion (money printing), are we really devaluing ourselves as much as we think?

I guess we care the most about strength of dollar relative to china but what about Japan and EU. How are they handling this? Apologies for entry level question and appreciate any answer.
A few days ago I read that Spain was going to go for a UBI because of this. I don't know what to make of it - their governments already throw a huge amount of money at the people for social services during normal times. I don't really see how they can afford it either. The PIIGS from 10 years ago are still PIIGS.
 
That's only because other countries are still interested in buying our products (and money). That will not last forever.

The consequences of our government's reckless behavior haven't caught up with us yet. One can't quadruple the national debt and expect the buying power of the dollar to not drop:


600px-US_National_Debt_public_intergovernmental.png



You said people weren't going to figure out their money buys less until the election was over. That's not how inflation works.

The thing about inflation is you would not expect it to have a drastic move. Changes will be slow and gradual and seen coming years and decades ahead of time.
 
For a free democratic society to prosper with stability, three items are essential:
* private property rights
* the rule of law
* sound money

How close are we to the tipping point of losing any of the above?
I'm not worried about 1 or 2 at this point ... not really, anyway.

I thought QE back around 2009 was the beginning of the end. We spent about 5 years after that with oil prices around or above $100/barrel. I figured energy costs would be an insurmountable drag, and inflation would come. For the decade afterword I kept waiting for inflation, with most of my assets in real estate (low fixed rate mortgages) and equities (figured stock market prices would balloon with inflation and I'd be better off owning 0.0001% of a company that actually made and did stuff). It worked out great but not at all for the reasons I expected.

So I was forced to admit that it's true - nobody really knows anything until after it's happened.

I won't even pretend to have a clue what'll happen this time around. But it seems quite apparent that the rest of the world, whether China or Europe or Russia or Africa or anywhere else, doesn't look better than the USA and most of it looks a whole lot worse. So I'm going to do exactly the same things as I did 10 years ago
  • Remain invested in equities for the long term. Because if the world quits turning, my asset allocation isn't going to matter anyway. I thought about going to 90%/10% but just left everything alone.
  • Continue to have zero debt of any kind. Live in a paid-off house.
  • Keep working.
  • Keep living below my means.
  • Live in a place unlikely to ever experience significant civil unrest.
What more can you do?
 
The thing about inflation is you would not expect it to have a drastic move. Changes will be slow and gradual and seen coming years and decades ahead of time.
I don't know about that. I'll concede that if a true crash happens, there'll be plenty of people who SAY they saw it coming years and decades ahead of time.

Seems more likely that things will be "fine" or "generally worrisome" right up until the moment things are not fine.
 
I wonder if the market is truly factoring in the fact that everything will need to remain mostly closed until there's a widely available vaccine - which is at least a year away.

As soon as we lift the restrictions is there any reason not to believe that case numbers will soar? All the talking-heads on CNBC are talking as though the country will be up and running in May. I just don't see how that's possible. Am I missing something?

Is Fed money alone without consumer demand enough to support equity prices? The US Fed has not gone so far as to literally purchases stocks, what they are doing is loaning out free money to companies (which shows up on balance sheets as debt) but if there's still no consumer demand, actual earnings will remain in the toilet and P/E ratios will sky-rocket.
 
I don't know about that. I'll concede that if a true crash happens, there'll be plenty of people who SAY they saw it coming years and decades ahead of time.

Seems more likely that things will be "fine" or "generally worrisome" right up until the moment things are not fine.

I'm saying we aren't going to see the 1.5% or so inflation we've had for like 20 years and then all of a sudden in 2021 it's going to run at 15%.
 
I wonder if the market is truly factoring in the fact that everything will need to remain mostly closed until there's a widely available vaccine - which is at least a year away.

As soon as we lift the restrictions is there any reason not to believe that case numbers will soar? All the talking-heads on CNBC are talking as though the country will be up and running in May. I just don't see how that's possible. Am I missing something?

Is Fed money alone without consumer demand enough to support equity prices? The US Fed has not gone so far as to literally purchases stocks, what they are doing is loaning out free money to companies (which shows up on balance sheets as debt) but if there's still no consumer demand, actual earnings will remain in the toilet and P/E ratios will sky-rocket.
Serious question because I don't know, Has the Fed ever collected on a loan? They "loan" the federal government quite frequently over the recent years buying a lot of debt (quantitative easing). Have any of these "loans" been cleared off the books? I think people assume these debts to the fed are and will be never repayed or resold which is why a lot of people see this "money printing" as a permanent dilution of our currency.
 
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I'm saying we aren't going to see the 1.5% or so inflation we've had for like 20 years and then all of a sudden in 2021 it's going to run at 15%.
I looked back at the 70s, the only period in my lifetime to get a reference. You're right it didn't move quite that dramatic, but some of those spikes are quite steep.
 

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Serious question because I don't know, Has the Fed ever collected on a loan? They "loan" the federal government quite frequently over the recent years buying a lot of debt (quantitative easing). Have any of these "loans" been cleared off the books? I think people assume these debts to the fed are and will be never repayed or resold which is why a lot of people see this "money printing" as a permanent dilution of our currency.


Actually yes. At the end of the day the Fed made money on TARP. Do I think that it was a good idea? Nope.

What kills people and corporations is debt and leverage. Works great until it doesn't. We keep doing it over and over. "The free market will police all" (chortle).

What has happened this time and a decade ago is that Wall Street is Using Main Street as hostages and Human shields. Bail us out. Because if we go down Main street goes down. The fix is simple. Change the rules of the game so the corporate veil can be pierced and executives have real skin in the game. Their life savings and maybe their freedom.

Of course that happening is highly unlikely.


 
I looked back at the 70s, the only period in my lifetime to get a reference. You're right it didn't move quite that dramatic, but some of those spikes are quite steep.

I had the pleasure of living through the 1973 and 1979 spikes as a teenager with a brand-new driver’s license in my wallet, sitting hours in gas lines and watching the gas prices skyrocket. They were caused by external events, ie, OPEC oil embargo, and post-Shah Iranian revolution causing global oil jitters. Those inflationary spikes can’t directly be blamed on the Fed.

My hand-me-down 1963 Chrysler Newport got 10 mpg, going downhill with a tailwind. Gas was dirt cheap until the OPEC embargo, then quadrupled/quintupled.
 
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I had the pleasure of living through the 1973 and 1979 spikes as a teenager with a brand-new driver’s license in my wallet, sitting hours in gas lines and watching the gas prices skyrocket. They were caused by external events, ie, OPEC oil embargo, and post-Shah Iranian revolution causing global oil jitters. Those inflationary spikes can’t directly be blamed on the Fed.

My hand-me-down 1963 Chrysler Newport got 10 mpg, going downhill with a tailwind. Gas was dirt cheap until the OPEC embargo, then quadrupled/quintupled.

We had a 1967 Chrysler Newport. Also a 1966 Plymouth Fury wagon. They handled like cruise ships.[emoji41]


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I looked back at the 70s, the only period in my lifetime to get a reference. You're right it didn't move quite that dramatic, but some of those spikes are quite steep.

stagflation was a unique set of circumstances that would probably be impossible to recreate right now
 
Yea yea, as I said before, the trumpist playbook is blame China, blame Obama, blame Bush, blame impeachment, blame Congress, blame media, blame health officials, blame governors, blame mayors. The buck stops anywhere but the oval office. We'll see if that logic holds up in the fall election.
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Vec, this may have been touched on already. With trump’s handling of this situation and with Biden as the democratic nominee, I think people on both sides will lose interest. In totality, I don’t quite know if Biden would be a better choice than Hillary was a few years ago.

Their debates have potential to be ridonk. The allegedly declining cerebral faculties of Biden could be exposed, and trump would jump all over it, which is sad for both sides.
 
Vec, this may have been touched on already. With trump’s handling of this situation and with Biden as the democratic nominee, I think people on both sides will lose interest. In totality, I don’t quite know if Biden would be a better choice than Hillary was a few years ago.

Their debates have potential to be ridonk. The allegedly declining cerebral faculties of Biden could be exposed, and trump would jump all over it, which is sad for both sides.

Yes, Biden is a terrible candidate- which is one of the many reasons I opposed his nomination.

It will be difficult to prognosticate how exactly this current situation will play out in November. If the economy has mostly recovered and "only" 60k people die then I doubt covid will play much of a role. If the economy is still struggling then the political ads which are 2 mins of trump downplaying the virus for months on end will be more hard hitting imo.

And as far as cognitive decline, all anyone has to do is turn on the pressers at 530pm if they want to see full on dotard action.

--
In Saturday's briefing, Trump even said the term "game changer" wasn't strong enough.

"If this drug works, it will be not a game changer because that's not a nice term — it'll be wonderful, it'll be so beautiful. It'll be a gift from heaven if it works," he said.
--
 
Investment strategies can be debated but these other life gems from pgg are worth repeating:
  • Continue to have zero debt of any kind. Live in a paid-off house.
  • Keep working.
  • Keep living below my means.
  • Live in a place unlikely to ever experience significant civil unrest.
 
Actually yes. At the end of the day the Fed made money on TARP. Do I think that it was a good idea? Nope.

What kills people and corporations is debt and leverage. Works great until it doesn't. We keep doing it over and over. "The free market will police all" (chortle).

What has happened this time and a decade ago is that Wall Street is Using Main Street as hostages and Human shields. Bail us out. Because if we go down Main street goes down. The fix is simple. Change the rules of the game so the corporate veil can be pierced and executives have real skin in the game. Their life savings and maybe their freedom.

Of course that happening is highly unlikely.


True, the TARP was paid back, though it was a United States Treasury program, not a Federal Reserve one. I never really considered it paid back as much as just passing the debt on to the next shmuck. In the years it took to pay off the TARP there were a big number of trillions thrown at everything, too many to remember, too much time to look up. Multiple trillions of new government borrowing and spending and multiple trillions of Fed Reserve programs and QEs. Some of that money went directly to banks, and then a lot of that money will indirectly affect banks by propping up the economy and then a share of it working its way to the banks. Take away all of that government and Fed spending, TARP doesn't get paid off. Banks get their debts cleaned, we now own the bill and much more.

As for free markets not policing these messes, who knows when the last decade was it ever had a chance. Even Nixon was a giant Keynesian. We live in an age where no one is supposed to lose financially. Everybody gets a participation trophy. The bad businesses aren't allowed to fail, the bad debt isn't allowed to default. We have gone years of mathematical imbalance, constantly consuming more than we are producing, constantly borrowing the difference. Each year it blows up bigger to keep it going. All the government smoke and mirrors in the world can't make that imbalance disappear. Bad business has to liquidate, bad debt has to default, poor fiscal irresponsibility has to stop. There has to be massive pain on all levels to turn the ship around because those unimaginable amount of trillions at all levels have been spent and are gone forever, but I don't see leaders strong enough to inflict the pain and a public smart enough to realize you can't keep getting something for nothing.

As an example, in 08 everyone agrees we had a ridiculous real estate bubble, yet when it fell apart all you heard from every network and every politician is "We have to stabilize real estate prices." Could be about the dumbest thing I've ever heard in economics. Literally. What in the world does that even mean? You can't stabilize a collapsing bubble anymore than you can stabilize Madoff. The unsustainable bubble buying mania was the problem. The only thing that will bring stability is its destruction in a free market crash back to market determined levels. There can't be only winners and no losers. We don't learn and keep trying more smoke and mirrors. I've completely lost faith the right moves will be done until forced to in a bad way.
 
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For a free democratic society to prosper with stability, three items are essential:
* private property rights
* the rule of law
* sound money

How close are we to the tipping point of losing any of the above?

There are a lot of doomsday predictions on this thread. There are not a lot of great options for anyone in a leadership position right now. Criticizing plans without alternative solutions, just as in anesthesia, is annoying.

It appears social distancing has helped slow the spread more than anticipated. Every country is dealing with this. NY just gets a skewed share of the press. I doubt the world is ending. If every countries economy suffers, it’ll probably even out for everyone.

Talent, education, and skill will continue to drive success. If you have these, you will likely be fine.

I am hopeful we come out of this with drastic improvements in:
1. health coverage for our citizens (whether you call it Medicare for all or a two tiered system)
2. student loan reform (tuition limits for government loans at 20k per year, private after that forcing you to think if it’s really worth it, it won’t be so schools will be forced to lower tuition)
3. more rational end of life care planning and spending
4. telemedicine (just like HR data everyone has a weird obsession with, someone will tweak and repackage existing technology for home vital monitors so it looks pretty on your iPhone and can sync to your telemedicine visit)
5. scaled back HIPAA (eased restrictions for public health tracking of covid but making getting records from outside facilities exponentially easier)
6. Tort reform (turns out no one will want providers to be sued after going through hell trying to help)
7. renewed respect for health care workers.

I think this gets worse before better but dies down mid summer with warm weather. We pretend to ease up slowly but in actuality ramp up way too quickly, we get a second spike, freak out, pump the breaks, it never gets as bad because of improved hygiene measures, It miraculously goes away by some combination of medication, social measures, vaccination or luck by spring 2021. Hopefully, our families are spared.
 
Yes, Biden is a terrible candidate- which is one of the many reasons I opposed his nomination.

It will be difficult to prognosticate how exactly this current situation will play out in November. If the economy has mostly recovered and "only" 60k people die then I doubt covid will play much of a role. If the economy is still struggling then the political ads which are 2 mins of trump downplaying the virus for months on end will be more hard hitting imo.

And as far as cognitive decline, all anyone has to do is turn on the pressers at 530pm if they want to see full on dotard action.

--
In Saturday's briefing, Trump even said the term "game changer" wasn't strong enough.

"If this drug works, it will be not a game changer because that's not a nice term — it'll be wonderful, it'll be so beautiful. It'll be a gift from heaven if it works," he said.
--

I agree. Unfortunately the Donald mentions the ratings in press briefings. I generally stop watching at that point. Folks are getting sick, losing jobs and hearing him talk about his media performance shows he’s legitimately out of touch.
Fauci is generally the only highlight of those briefings. He’s not the salesman that Trump wants him to be.
 
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That's not the best case scenario. This is: The Federal Reserve is headed for bankruptcy.

The US Treasury Department has made a deal with the Federal Reserve to utilize SPVs. An SPV is a “Special Purpose Vehicle.” It is some sort of legal entity (corporation, trust, LLC, etc.) that is used for a specific purpose. Nothing magical about it, just that it is a legal entity used for a special purpose.

The Federal Reserve can print money out of nothing, but what can it do with that money? It can buy US gov’t guaranteed assets, such as treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities. Since the FR has never been audited (in any meaningful sense), it can also spend money however it wants, with no accountability. That is the REAL power of a central bank. Print money out of nothing, use that money to buy interest-bearing notes, and then spend the income from that interest however the hell you want — all with no accountability. Imagine what you could buy with unlimited income! What does the FR do with its expenses? Who are the “contractors” that siphon off the money? We don’t know, because it has NEVER been audited.

So, because the FR cannot buy corporate bonds, for example, there is a problem. This economy is on the brink of disaster, not because of a cold virus, but because of a deep state plot to wreck the economy by fear mongering and getting their idiot bureaucrats to (unconstitutionally) shut down businesses.

Let’s take General Motors as an example. GM is cranking along, and then suddenly vehicle sales falls through the floor. What to do? Sure, maybe convert to other production, like face masks, but this is a car company, not a face mask company. With sales dropping massively, the stock price does, too. It already has, in anticipation. But something else also happens.

GM cannot pay its debt. It borrows on bank loans, but it also borrows through the corporate bond market. Say it issues $100 million in bonds, the company gets $100 million cash in exchange for paying annual interest payments (say, 6%) for some period of time (say, 20 years). It pays off the principal at the end of the 20 years, with cash or by issuing more bonds, or more stock, or borrowing on loans, or whatever.

But with the current shock to the economy, what if it can’t pay the interest on the bonds? Bankruptcy is likely. Bonds only get wiped out in bankruptcy after all stockholders get wiped out first. This means 401k’s, pension funds, and investors all over the world lose all their stock equity and maybe some or all of their corporate bond investments, too. Huge financial wipeout. And GM is only one company. Multiple by 1,000 for the overall picture.

So, the FR might want to buy corporate bonds to stabilize the situation, but it is not allowed to. This is the reason for the SPV’s. The SPV is set up, the US Treasury owns the stock of the SPV, and the FR makes loans to the SPV by printing money.

Then, the SPV (managed by Black Rock) purchases corporate bonds from GM and other companies. This provides liquidity to the markets. Mom and Pop get cash for their potentially-worthless GM bonds. Their 401k gets cash, as does their pension funds. Soon, the SPV owns all the GM bonds. GM now has only one bond holder, the US Treasury’s SPV. This makes it possible for GM to negotiate a deal where they can have a moratorium on bond interest payment for some period of time until things improve. This means their interest expense goes to $0, making it easier to survive the economic crash. This also helps keep stockholders more satisfied that there won’t be a bankruptcy to wipe them out.

On it’s face, this move is to provide liquidity to the financial markets and calm things down. It also serves as a real tool to keep corporate America in position to survive the economic crash that has been engineered by the criminal cabal.

Is there more to it than that? Maybe.

While the SPV’s are busy buying up non-US gov’t assets, the FR itself is busy buying up US treasuries. What treasuries are they buying?

As the federal government goes into overdrive to dish out money to people and businesses who have been harmed by the criminal cabal’s scheme, the FR is buying up that new debt. The US gov’t borrows the money by issuing bonds, and the FR is buying those bonds. But the FR is now geared up to buy way more bonds than just this amount. The FR is buying at a massive pace. There is already more than $22 trillion in federal bond debt. The FR is buying $625 billion per week, or $2.5 trillion per month! Some of that is NEW debt because of all the massive new spending, but the rest is buying other US debt (if they keep up that buying pace).

Who exactly owns the federal debt? There are two types of federal debt: marketable securities and non-marketable securities. Non-marketable securities are just a paper game where the US gov’t “borrows” from the left pocket to put into the right pocket. Back when Bill Clinton was president, they claimed they had a budget surplus. It was a lie. They had shifted debt between the Social Security “trust fund” and the regular budget. In reality, total debt increased during this time because they were using real borrowed funds to pretend it was revenue.

Anyway, these funds owed by the US gov’t to the US gov’t are “non-marketable securities.” They are not traded on the markets, because they are just debt on the books (left pocket/right pocket). They are an accounting gimmick.

The marketable securities, however, are real debt. The US gov’t has not had a real budget surplus in many decades. It constantly spends more than it takes in in revenue, and the difference is borrowed each year. That’s why the national debt is over $22 trillion.

Currently, the marketable securities are about $17 trillion of the $22 trillion, and the other $6 trillion are these non-marketable securities.

What these SPV’s might be is a one-two punch to take down the Federal Reserve, AND … eliminate the income tax!

As the FR prints money to fund the SPV’s, which buy up corporate bonds and other non-gov’t assets, the FR is also printing money to buy up US treasury debt. At $2.5 trillion in purchases per month, if the FR is buying the real debt and not the fake debt, then they will own ALL of it in about 7 months — right around the time of the election.

Of course, if they are also using that new money to buy up the new bonds being printed because of the stimulus bill, then it would take a little longer. If they are also using that same money to fund the SPV’s, then it will take longer still. But sooner or later, the FR will end up owning ALL OF THE DEBT — either directly, or by issuing loans to the SPV’s.

You see? Instead of everybody else being in debt to the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve will be in debt to everyone else!

And then …

Congress passes a law abolishing the Federal Reserve, and letting it die in bankruptcy court. In bankruptcy court, all of its transactions for the past however many years would be made available to the trustees (and ultimately the public) to learn what they have been doing with all that money all these years.

The US Treasury then takes over the printing presses, but backed by gold. (Take a look at a new issue $100 bill...does each half look different?)

Over time, and without interest-bearing money, the federal government could get back to its constitutional limitations.

smart. makes a lot of sense🙂
 
Yes they would. We have docs over 60 who are financially set coming into take care of COVID patients. And it’s not because they are selfless humanitarians. Never underestimate what someone will do for a paycheck.....

Greed trumps all. Pretty much a hallmark of that generation. Just don’t try to draft them, they already tried that during Vietnam.
 
That's not the best case scenario. This is: The Federal Reserve is headed for bankruptcy.

The US Treasury Department has made a deal with the Federal Reserve to utilize SPVs. An SPV is a “Special Purpose Vehicle.” It is some sort of legal entity (corporation, trust, LLC, etc.) that is used for a specific purpose. Nothing magical about it, just that it is a legal entity used for a special purpose.

The Federal Reserve can print money out of nothing, but what can it do with that money? It can buy US gov’t guaranteed assets, such as treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities. Since the FR has never been audited (in any meaningful sense), it can also spend money however it wants, with no accountability. That is the REAL power of a central bank. Print money out of nothing, use that money to buy interest-bearing notes, and then spend the income from that interest however the hell you want — all with no accountability. Imagine what you could buy with unlimited income! What does the FR do with its expenses? Who are the “contractors” that siphon off the money? We don’t know, because it has NEVER been audited.

So, because the FR cannot buy corporate bonds, for example, there is a problem. This economy is on the brink of disaster, not because of a cold virus, but because of a deep state plot to wreck the economy by fear mongering and getting their idiot bureaucrats to (unconstitutionally) shut down businesses.

Let’s take General Motors as an example. GM is cranking along, and then suddenly vehicle sales falls through the floor. What to do? Sure, maybe convert to other production, like face masks, but this is a car company, not a face mask company. With sales dropping massively, the stock price does, too. It already has, in anticipation. But something else also happens.

GM cannot pay its debt. It borrows on bank loans, but it also borrows through the corporate bond market. Say it issues $100 million in bonds, the company gets $100 million cash in exchange for paying annual interest payments (say, 6%) for some period of time (say, 20 years). It pays off the principal at the end of the 20 years, with cash or by issuing more bonds, or more stock, or borrowing on loans, or whatever.

But with the current shock to the economy, what if it can’t pay the interest on the bonds? Bankruptcy is likely. Bonds only get wiped out in bankruptcy after all stockholders get wiped out first. This means 401k’s, pension funds, and investors all over the world lose all their stock equity and maybe some or all of their corporate bond investments, too. Huge financial wipeout. And GM is only one company. Multiple by 1,000 for the overall picture.

So, the FR might want to buy corporate bonds to stabilize the situation, but it is not allowed to. This is the reason for the SPV’s. The SPV is set up, the US Treasury owns the stock of the SPV, and the FR makes loans to the SPV by printing money.

Then, the SPV (managed by Black Rock) purchases corporate bonds from GM and other companies. This provides liquidity to the markets. Mom and Pop get cash for their potentially-worthless GM bonds. Their 401k gets cash, as does their pension funds. Soon, the SPV owns all the GM bonds. GM now has only one bond holder, the US Treasury’s SPV. This makes it possible for GM to negotiate a deal where they can have a moratorium on bond interest payment for some period of time until things improve. This means their interest expense goes to $0, making it easier to survive the economic crash. This also helps keep stockholders more satisfied that there won’t be a bankruptcy to wipe them out.

On it’s face, this move is to provide liquidity to the financial markets and calm things down. It also serves as a real tool to keep corporate America in position to survive the economic crash that has been engineered by the criminal cabal.

Is there more to it than that? Maybe.

While the SPV’s are busy buying up non-US gov’t assets, the FR itself is busy buying up US treasuries. What treasuries are they buying?

As the federal government goes into overdrive to dish out money to people and businesses who have been harmed by the criminal cabal’s scheme, the FR is buying up that new debt. The US gov’t borrows the money by issuing bonds, and the FR is buying those bonds. But the FR is now geared up to buy way more bonds than just this amount. The FR is buying at a massive pace. There is already more than $22 trillion in federal bond debt. The FR is buying $625 billion per week, or $2.5 trillion per month! Some of that is NEW debt because of all the massive new spending, but the rest is buying other US debt (if they keep up that buying pace).

Who exactly owns the federal debt? There are two types of federal debt: marketable securities and non-marketable securities. Non-marketable securities are just a paper game where the US gov’t “borrows” from the left pocket to put into the right pocket. Back when Bill Clinton was president, they claimed they had a budget surplus. It was a lie. They had shifted debt between the Social Security “trust fund” and the regular budget. In reality, total debt increased during this time because they were using real borrowed funds to pretend it was revenue.

Anyway, these funds owed by the US gov’t to the US gov’t are “non-marketable securities.” They are not traded on the markets, because they are just debt on the books (left pocket/right pocket). They are an accounting gimmick.

The marketable securities, however, are real debt. The US gov’t has not had a real budget surplus in many decades. It constantly spends more than it takes in in revenue, and the difference is borrowed each year. That’s why the national debt is over $22 trillion.

Currently, the marketable securities are about $17 trillion of the $22 trillion, and the other $6 trillion are these non-marketable securities.

What these SPV’s might be is a one-two punch to take down the Federal Reserve, AND … eliminate the income tax!

As the FR prints money to fund the SPV’s, which buy up corporate bonds and other non-gov’t assets, the FR is also printing money to buy up US treasury debt. At $2.5 trillion in purchases per month, if the FR is buying the real debt and not the fake debt, then they will own ALL of it in about 7 months — right around the time of the election.

Of course, if they are also using that new money to buy up the new bonds being printed because of the stimulus bill, then it would take a little longer. If they are also using that same money to fund the SPV’s, then it will take longer still. But sooner or later, the FR will end up owning ALL OF THE DEBT — either directly, or by issuing loans to the SPV’s.

You see? Instead of everybody else being in debt to the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve will be in debt to everyone else!

And then …

Congress passes a law abolishing the Federal Reserve, and letting it die in bankruptcy court. In bankruptcy court, all of its transactions for the past however many years would be made available to the trustees (and ultimately the public) to learn what they have been doing with all that money all these years.

The US Treasury then takes over the printing presses, but backed by gold. (Take a look at a new issue $100 bill...does each half look different?)

Over time, and without interest-bearing money, the federal government could get back to its constitutional limitations.


are you insane? Were you going to bother to link to where you cut and pasted this from? It's literally Q-anon worshipper stuff from something called centipedenation.

(I assumed you had cut and pasted a long diatribe like this from somewhere because literally no practicing physician or resident or even med student is going to take the time to free type out something this long and crazy so I simply pasted a few sentences into google and it pops up as the first hit)


The downside of the internet is that any ***** with a computer can start a website and publish their random conspiracy theories and find others to join in the stupidity with them.
 
are you insane? Were you going to bother to link to where you cut and pasted this from? It's literally Q-anon worshipper stuff from something called centipedenation.

(I assumed you had cut and pasted a long diatribe like this from somewhere because literally no practicing physician or resident or even med student is going to take the time to free type out something this long and crazy so I simply pasted a few sentences into google and it pops up as the first hit)


The downside of the internet is that any ***** with a computer can start a website and publish their random conspiracy theories and find others to join in the stupidity with them.
That's actually pretty funny. I think there are some points in it, but it lost me quickly at the Fed will go bankrupt. I'm not aware of any limit of how much "money" the Fed can create from a keyboard, so I don't follow how bankruptcy occurs.
 
are you insane? Were you going to bother to link to where you cut and pasted this from? It's literally Q-anon worshipper stuff from something called centipedenation.

(I assumed you had cut and pasted a long diatribe like this from somewhere because literally no practicing physician or resident or even med student is going to take the time to free type out something this long and crazy so I simply pasted a few sentences into google and it pops up as the first hit)


The downside of the internet is that any ***** with a computer can start a website and publish their random conspiracy theories and find others to join in the stupidity with them.

The point is well taken. If you are going to copy and paste word salad, at least provide a link/source.
 
EVQXT3iUMAANDab


For all the discussion of risks of inflation, currently seeing deflation in March. Seems likely to continue through April and we will see how quickly it turns around.
 
For those who are interested, allow me to elaborate. This new US Treasury-Federal Reserve agreement to use SPVs, essentially allows the US government to leverage the money of the FR for the good of US businesses and citizens (as described in what I posted previously). This will allow for relief measures (business loans, supplemental checks to individuals, corporate bonds, etc) and possibly finance other measures being talked about to prop up the economy like an infrastructure bill.

The key to all of it is to know our true history--not conspiracy theory--the history of FR and JFK's Executive Order 11110. It is the thought of many that we are about to see, sometime in the near future, an end to the US FR via the resurrection of EO 111110 and a return to a gold/silver backed US Treasury issued dollar. The way to bankrupt the FR is to make them obsolete. They exist only to print our paper money and charge us interest to do it. If we do not utilize them as a source of our money, they shrivel up. But before we allow them to shrivel up, we are first going to drain them of lots and lots of cash to help out the American people. I believe we have no intention of paying the FR back, or if we do, it will be with our own US Treasury-issued bills of which the US government sets the value (based on our gold/silver reserves).

Not since JFK have we had a president with the guts (and good intentions) to do what needs to be done--end the Fed. Everything Trump has done with regards to the FR is to minimize the the mystique surrounding them that they are an all powerful and all knowing entity whom we should just continue to follow like good little sheep. The real history of the FR is that they have been instrumental in causing much of our financial suffering, not in alleviating it.

Everyone can look at events and history and think for themselves. All I'm doing is offering one perspective about the US economy in the time of Covid-19 (the topic of this thread). Anyone is free to disagree with my perspective. But if anyone would like to state their disagreement, I challenge them to disagree on the substance of what I am saying and to leave the personal insults out of it. I'm speculating here, just like everyone else is speculating here. Let's all be civil.

To refresh your memories on the history of FR and EO11110:





*There are a myriad of sources with similar information. These are just a few representative clips. And if the neighbor of the cousin of the video maker's wife has a room full of UFO posters in their bedroom, I swear I am not aware of it. 😉



no link for that one either?
 
Trudeau says there will be no return to "normality" until there is a vaccine. Which current predictions say that's 12-18 months away.
I wonder how that will affect the markets if it's not business as usual for so long.


keep going up. fed will just pay everyone , and artifically keep the market up.
 
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And the second wave is coming in Asia, after returning to work. Food for thought for the geniuses who think that we can just simply restart the economy.
 
LOL. Your Qanon level education on finance is shining through in it.
Did you watch the "imbedded" videos, from the inbred-ed people? My instinct says it's a yuuuge conspiracy... 🤣

I wonder what reactivated the troll.
 
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keep going up. fed will just pay everyone , and artifically keep the market up.

I guess I should’ve been more clear in my question. Not only am I wondering what will happen to the markets but what about the rest of the economy?

Is the government just going to continuously bail out every industry? Airlines, the arts, hotels, sports, entertainment, restaurants, etc. The feds are going to pay us enough so that we can live and also buy unnecessary items to keep the economy going?

Wipe out everyone’s student loans?!?
 
even with the loss of life from covid-19 at some point the societal costs from a prolonged lockdown will cause serious long term effects that must be balanced. we cannot prevent all the deaths and may times listening to cuomo i get the impression he is living in some utopia where he thinks this will happen. a certain number will have to be accepted. we know unemployment and sudden unexpected life changes often leads to psychological trauma, and long term stress. after just 3 weeks there is data that calls for domestic violence is up significantly. the hidden facts are that divorce, child abuse, depression, alcoholism and eventually violent crime are going to become serious untold effects
 
the government can bail out everyone in the end it will not prevent a depression. we can pump 20% of our gdp to try and whitewash what is happening.
we are not an isolated economy. we are completely dependent on the rest of the world. vast majority of other countries cannot bail out their bankrupt companies to the extent we can. they are in for a long depression. our bail out may prop us up for a few months but eventually with a collapsed global economy it is not sustainable.
 
even with the loss of life from covid-19 at some point the societal costs from a prolonged lockdown will cause serious long term effects that must be balanced. we cannot prevent all the deaths and may times listening to cuomo i get the impression he is living in some utopia where he thinks this will happen. a certain number will have to be accepted. we know unemployment and sudden unexpected life changes often leads to psychological trauma, and long term stress. after just 3 weeks there is data that calls for domestic violence is up significantly. the hidden facts are that divorce, child abuse, depression, alcoholism and eventually violent crime are going to become serious untold effects

Oh yes I certainly agree.
I didn’t want to take this thread on too far of a tangent since it’s mostly about economics.

Black and Hispanic people are dying at alarming rates compared to white people...hello continuing to highlight health disparities due to decades of racism and inequality. That alone is another added stressor on our community that is already depressed in so many other ways.

There are states right now restricting patients from getting reproductive health care they need, which is causing even more negative affects on people.

There’s a lot we could talk about. It’s all a mess.

As the article I posted says people don’t think things are going to be back to "normal" until there’s a vaccine, so what exactly does that mean? Clearly that’s a rhetorical question since no one can answer that.

ETA: to be clear I’m certainly happy that people and local governments seem to be taking this seriously and everything isn’t opening back up fully this weekend like trump wanted. I was just pointing out there’s a lot to think about since this seems to be likely to be ongoing for awhile.
 
There are states right now restricting patients from getting reproductive health care they need, which is causing even more negative affects on people.
I haven't heard of anybody unable to get prenatal checkups or any other reproduction healthcare because of state retrictions. Are you sure it isn't fetal termination care you are referring to?

Just a pet peeve, I wish all of these false labels would be thrown away, pro-life/pro-choice etc, and people just say I'm for abortion rights or I'm against abortion rights. It all seems disingenuous.
(for the record, somewhere in the middle)
 
A food line in San Antonio. Thank whoever you pray to that it appears the virus and economic shutdown will be far less than feared. This is after just a few weeks of shutdown. Anybody that thinks people concerned about the economy must value stocks and their 401k over human lives is a clown. Look at that picture and tell me where we would be heading if we had the full scale virus and economic devastation. To be exact we would be heading to Hell.
 

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A food line in San Antonio. Thank whoever you pray to that it appears the virus and economic shutdown will be far less than feared. This is after just a few weeks of shutdown. Anybody that thinks people concerned about the economy must value stocks and their 401k over human lives is a clown. Look at that picture and tell me where we would be heading if we had the full scale virus and economic devastation. To be exact we would be heading to Hell.

That’s interesting. Is there something unique about San Antonio that is causing this? We’ve been shut down longer than Texas and we don’t have similar lines. Just trying to figure it out.
 
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