The ultimate COVID thread

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vector2 said:
We’ve transitioned past that point where it doesn’t matter if it’s “fake” or not. Even if something is obviously unethical or wrong, trump and the rest of the machine just pull an Orwell and say it’s right. Bing bang boom.
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Some do.

Others opt to wait and see what the *real* story is, given how much bull**** the media have pushed.
 
JobsFan said:
so now Trump says it's the WHO's fault for missing the call, and having a china-centric view.
:vomit:

Every time he opens his mouth - I want to vomit.
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Don't let your feelings for Trump blind you to the reality that the WHO has been a clown show, handling this about as well as the musical group The Who would have.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus praised the Chinese regime for its “transparency” in the crisis. Tedros, recall, was Beijing’s candidate for WHO chief and owes his job to China’s campaign for him at the United Nations.

Tedros saying the travel ban would “have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit.”

nypost.com

China’s deadly coronavirus-lie co-conspirator — the World Health Organization

The fog of war obscures much about the novel coronavirus pandemic. But two facts seem absolutely certain. First, China’s Communist authorities have lied, concealed and misled about the origins of t…
nypost.com nypost.com
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Don't let your feelings for Trump blind you to the reality that the WHO has been a clown show, handling this about as well as the musical group The Who would have.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus praised the Chinese regime for its “transparency” in the crisis. Tedros, recall, was Beijing’s candidate for WHO chief and owes his job to China’s campaign for him at the United Nations.

Tedros saying the travel ban would “have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit.”

nypost.com

China’s deadly coronavirus-lie co-conspirator — the World Health Organization

The fog of war obscures much about the novel coronavirus pandemic. But two facts seem absolutely certain. First, China’s Communist authorities have lied, concealed and misled about the origins of t…
nypost.com nypost.com
Click to expand...

The onlybenefit of the travel ban was it gave us extra time...

We did nothing with that time.

So in essence it made no difference.
 
This is quite a mathematical sleight of hand. Lots of tax cuts, lots of spending, lots of bailouts, ie lots of cost. And then financed with lots of counterfeit fiat money diluting the currency. Lots of winners, whoever benefits the most from all of the aformentioned debt and whatever other non-government debt the Fed buys up, balanced by the big losers of whoever is holding diluted dollars and the future suckers responsible for the debt not monetized. When the time comes that everyone sees there really is no free lunch watch all of the geniuses in media, business, and academics say again, Oh my nobody could have seen this coming. Which incredibly they said after the dot com crash (Ray Charles saw that coming) and the 08 real estate crash.

www.bloomberg.com

Fed Going All In to Save Economy. Here’s What Could Come Next

The Federal Reserve rolled out several measures this week to support the economy and re-liquefy financial markets reeling from the shock of an unprecedented shutdown. It ain’t done yet.Among possible options: The central bank could explicitly expand its purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed...
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
 
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FFP said:
Sweden is a few weeks away from a tsunami. Mark my words.

They already have 7000+ cases, which is the equivalent of the US having 220,000, and the numbers are not growing exponentially yet (suggesting that they are not testing enough people).
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Will be interesting to see. Sweden new cases and deaths are actually in decline which is not the case here. Testing per capita is almost the same as US. I don't think I would have left restaurants open, very non essential and higher risk; otherwise I like it. Their economy is barely scathed. And as they are saying over there, they are flexible to changes as needed.

New Cases/Total Cases on the left
New Deaths/Total Deaths on the right

Screenshot_20200408-035628.jpg
 
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We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Will be interesting to see. Sweden new cases and deaths are actually in decline which is not the case here. Testing per capita is almost the same as US. I don't think I would have left restaurants open, very non essential and higher risk; otherwise I like it. Their economy is barely scathed. And as they are saying over there, they are flexible to changes as needed.

New Cases/Total Cases on the left
New Deaths/Total Deaths on the right

View attachment 301520
Click to expand...

Sweden's 2 highest death days were yesterday (114) and the day before (76) so we will see which way it goes for them.
 
www.cnbc.com

Josh Brown: How to protect your nest egg in volatile times

When the stock market is volatile, people often wonder what's going to happen to retirement money they've worked so hard to save and invest. Some want to pull their money out of stocks to keep it safe. Others take unnecessary risks, trying to get rich fast. Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholz Wealth...
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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Mman said:
Sweden's 2 highest death days were yesterday (114) and the day before (76) so we will see which way it goes for them.
Click to expand...
Couple that with the 2+ week lag between interventions which decrease spread and decrease in death rate. I hope they made a good choice, but despite all the negatives I am glad we made some of the economic sacrifices we did.
 
pjl said:
Couple that with the 2+ week lag between interventions which decrease spread and decrease in death rate. I hope they made a good choice, but despite all the negatives I am glad we made some of the economic sacrifices we did.
Click to expand...
$40K per capita national debt, more than half the GDP. Be glad!
 
pjl said:
Couple that with the 2+ week lag between interventions which decrease spread and decrease in death rate. I hope they made a good choice, but despite all the negatives I am glad we made some of the economic sacrifices we did.
Click to expand...

I think the number of cases is unreliable and the deaths number is certainly headed in the wrong direction.
 
The USA is starting to turn the corner. The curve is "flattening" and the stock market recognizes that fact. By next week we should be on the decline for Covid 19.

Perhaps, the market will settle in around 2600 as it digests lower GDP and massive layoffs. The stock market may not retest 2200 if the news isn't as bad as expected.

1586355418115.png
 
Coronavirus deaths will continue to climb in the U.S. this week even as new cases near their peak and the rate of hospitalizations slow down, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday.

“It’s going to be a bad week for deaths,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on Fox News.

Fauci said deaths generally lag behind other aspects of the outbreak such as new cases and hospitalization. New cases appear to be nearing their peak and the rate of hospitalizations is down, he said.

After this week, the U.S. should see the “beginning of a turnaround,” Fauci said.

“So, we need to keep pushing on the mitigation strategies because there is no doubt that that is having a positive impact on the dynamics of the outbreak,” he said. “Now is not the time to pull back at all. It’s the time to intensify.”

The White House has previously projected that 100,000 to 240,000 people in the U.S. will die from the coronavirus. As people continue to practice social distancing, Fauci said that projection is likely to fall.
 
Ezekiel2517 said:
Once CA, especially SF Bay Area and LA, open things up, you’re going to see surges. Same goes for a lot of other major metros. Don’t kid yourselves by underestimating this virus. It’s far more relentless than us.
Click to expand...
Exactly. That is why the only way through this is herd immunity.
 
Ezekiel2517 said:
Once CA, especially SF Bay Area and LA, open things up, you’re going to see surges. Same goes for a lot of other major metros. Don’t kid yourselves by underestimating this virus. It’s far more relentless than us.
Click to expand...
This will last 2+ years, less if we get a vaccine. Just look at the 1918-1919 pandemic, and they didn't flatten the curve as much as we do nowadays.
 
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Don 't underestimate the economic impact of a real treatment from one of the trials underway. For example, early treatment with Remdesevir may show very good efficacy ( that is my hunch). If that is the case the stock market and economy may recover faster than many of you here think it will. What we need is herd immunity, a vaccine by winter and an effective treatment.

My hunch is that within the next 2-4 weeks we will get good news from a trial and testing availability will increase dramatically. We will get a partial re-opening of the economy in May.

We may never retest the lows from March and in fact, the stock market could rally another 10% UP from here with good news about a treatment and the flattening of the curve. I do think the stock market is very ahead of the actual data and stocks prices are optimistic at this point.

The REAL economy will stay in partial-shutdown mode for several more months until the reported cases start falling to just a few hundred per day.
 
I have a feeling Remdesivir may not be as rosy as we think. Gilead is very conservative with it, which is the right thing to do at this point, but could also mean that they are seeing some side effects that don't make them happy (or is not as curative as we hope).
 
A quarter of Americans have either lost their job or seen their wages cut as a result of the coronavirus shutdown, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, which registered the biggest and fastest decline ever in the public’s view of the economy.

At the same time, it found that a majority of Americans remains optimistic that the economy will bounce back in the next year, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has improved.

The poll of 800 Americans across the nation, conducted Friday through Monday, found 10% saying they have lost their job and 16% reporting they have seen their wages or salary reduced due to the economic shutdown that has accompanied the spread of the virus. —Steve Liesman
 
BLADEMDA said:
A quarter of Americans have either lost their job or seen their wages cut as a result of the coronavirus shutdown, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, which registered the biggest and fastest decline ever in the public’s view of the economy.

At the same time, it found that a majority of Americans remains optimistic that the economy will bounce back in the next year, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has improved.

The poll of 800 Americans across the nation, conducted Friday through Monday, found 10% saying they have lost their job and 16% reporting they have seen their wages or salary reduced due to the economic shutdown that has accompanied the spread of the virus. —Steve Liesman
Click to expand...
Aren't there like 330 million Americans in the county? Minus however many are kids/homeless/didn't have jobs before. I'm optimistic about the economy bouncing back within the next five years, but I'm also optimistic about my chances of getting into heaven too.
 
.https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting.

Concerns about what is now known to be the novel coronavirus pandemic were detailed in a November intelligence report by the military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), according to two officials familiar with the document’s contents.

The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia -- forces that depend on the NCMI’s work.
Click to expand...
 
FFP said:
The road to herd immunity passes through a lot of deaths (absent a cure or vaccine). This virus is a prime example of natural selection (for humans).
Click to expand...
I understand. But do you think a lockdown is sustainable? Lots of deaths will happen if we become a police state/third world country.
 
Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban isn’t convinced that the swift market rally is here to stay.

“I’m surprised. I think this is kind of buy the rumor and potentially we sell the news when reality sets in,” Cuban said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Wednesday. “I think people are naturally optimistic right now in terms of the market. I just don’t think they are not factoring in what’s on the other side.”
 
MirrorTodd said:
Aren't there like 330 million Americans in the county? Minus however many are kids/homeless/didn't have jobs before. I'm optimistic about the economy bouncing back within the next five years, but I'm also optimistic about my chances of getting into heaven too.
Click to expand...
The economy exists so I think it’s odds are better. I’d love for you to sit on a cloud listening to harp music for eternity though, that would never get old.
😉
 
Purellbath said:
The economy exists so I think it’s odds are better. I’d love for you to sit on a cloud listening to harp music for eternity though, that would never get old.
😉
Click to expand...
My understanding is that just like how we make our hell, we make our own heaven, so I'll be on bisexual-lesbian cloud which happens to be right next to the peanut butter strawberry milkshake cloud.
 
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Mman said:
Sweden's 2 highest death days were yesterday (114) and the day before (76) so we will see which way it goes for them.
Click to expand...
You're right. They got smashed; like a lot of places though. As we know deaths lags behind. Hopefully they can weather the storm without shutting too much down as that would be great for everyone going forward, including us. I'm becoming a "herd immunity" guy. Time will tell.

I'm in a shut down state watching a crew of 8 across from me clear trees the last 2 days to begin building a house. I think it's obvious we are only a pseudo-shutdown approach. We'll never achieve total isolation so as long as it's not out of control I'm not too upset they are out getting the herd exposed and adding a little economy.

I'm starting to think regardless of the approach this will not be a great plague of any kind that will send us to the stone ages. As always I'm more concerned with the long term economic issues we have, and less and less with this.
 
dannyboy1 said:
I understand. But do you think a lockdown is sustainable? Lots of deaths will happen if we become a police state/third world country.
Click to expand...

How would a freely spread virus benefit the economy? No one over 50 (even over 40?) would go out consistently if they had a non-trivial chance of immediate death.

Trump screwed up majorly by failing to contain the virus early on -- now every "solution" will lead to great costs.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban isn’t convinced that the swift market rally is here to stay.

“I’m surprised. I think this is kind of buy the rumor and potentially we sell the news when reality sets in,” Cuban said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Wednesday. “I think people are naturally optimistic right now in terms of the market. I just don’t think they are not factoring in what’s on the other side.”
Click to expand...

Even if we get this virus down to influenza numbers (which would take many months), the world will not go back to the way it was in December 2019. People will be a lot more germophobic and disinclined to frequent packed events. Esepecially since so many refuse to take any useful lessons from this (e.g., we can't point out the source of this plague, because that would be "racist"). Restructuring will occur. We will rise from the depths of despair and terror, but we won't end up on an economic cocaine high. Just my guess.
 
CheGuevaraMD said:
How would a freely spread virus benefit the economy? No one over 50 (even over 40?) would go out consistently if they had a non-trivial chance of immediate death.
Click to expand...
Yes they would. We have docs over 60 who are financially set coming into take care of COVID patients. And it’s not because they are selfless humanitarians. Never underestimate what someone will do for a paycheck.....
 
Even with rapid testing, we are still under social distancing orders. Giving an anesthetic is not social distancing. I hope we don’t see elective cases for a while. I don’t want to endanger myself, staff, and patients for BS elective cases.
 
dannyboy1 said:
Yes they would. We have docs over 60 who are financially set coming into take care of COVID patients. And it’s not because they are selfless humanitarians. Never underestimate what someone will do for a paycheck.....
Click to expand...

This is not unlike going to war -- sure these docs "benefit," but they are risking their lives for the common good. My personal dentist, optometrist, etc. are all closed except for emergencies, even though they are "essential" businesses. These healthcare practitioners are obviously not keen on dying for a few more bucks.
 
CheGuevaraMD said:
This is not unlike going to war -- sure these docs "benefit," but they are risking their lives for the common good. My personal dentist, optometrist, etc. are all closed except for emergencies, even though they are "essential" businesses. These healthcare practitioners are obviously not keen on dying for a few more bucks.
Click to expand...
Please. Everyone of our healthcare workers are coming in for the paycheck. (Quick experiment, tell them that they will not be paid for their services any longer and see how many show up tomorrow ). Your dentist and optometrist are likely barred by the state executive order from doing non emergent work.
 
BLADEMDA said:
The USA is starting to turn the corner. The curve is "flattening" and the stock market recognizes that fact. By next week we should be on the decline for Covid 19.

Perhaps, the market will settle in around 2600 as it digests lower GDP and massive layoffs. The stock market may not retest 2200 if the news isn't as bad as expected.

View attachment 301530
Click to expand...

I hope you’re right blade, that would be great news...
I just don’t see why you say that though

deaths are still increasing exponentially
maybe there is a decrease in new cases - or at least a reduction in the rate of rise of new cases ... but it a bit early to call I think

at least based on data from here ...
www.worldometers.info

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

you’ve also got a lot of medium sized cities that are just getting started , sadly.
 
dannyboy1 said:
Please. Everyone of our healthcare workers are coming in for the paycheck. (Quick experiment, tell them that they will not be paid for their services any longer and see how many show up tomorrow ). Your dentist and optometrist are likely barred by the state executive order from doing non emergent work.
Click to expand...
That is exactly what our partner anesthesiologists are doing. In fact, we lose money every day due to paying employees. I will not take home a dime, and will just be accruing debt until electives come back.

Still, every one of us is showing up.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Don't let your feelings for Trump blind you to the reality that the WHO has been a clown show, handling this about as well as the musical group The Who would have.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus praised the Chinese regime for its “transparency” in the crisis. Tedros, recall, was Beijing’s candidate for WHO chief and owes his job to China’s campaign for him at the United Nations.

Tedros saying the travel ban would “have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit.”

nypost.com

China’s deadly coronavirus-lie co-conspirator — the World Health Organization

The fog of war obscures much about the novel coronavirus pandemic. But two facts seem absolutely certain. First, China’s Communist authorities have lied, concealed and misled about the origins of t…
nypost.com nypost.com
Click to expand...

does it strike you as odd that trump is blaming the WHO - and so is mini me (Boris Johnson) , but no such criticism out of Italy, spain, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc.

the countries that took it seriously have flattened the curve, the USA had ample opportunity to do the same.
choosing not to implement policy to do so sits squarely with the Trump administratio.
 
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JobsFan said:
I hope you’re right blade, that would be great news...
I just don’t see why you say that though

deaths are still increasing exponentially
maybe there is a decrease in new cases - or at least a reduction in the rate of rise of new cases ... but it a bit early to call I think

at least based on data from here ...
www.worldometers.info

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

you’ve also got a lot of medium sized cities that are just getting started , sadly.
Click to expand...

Death rates will lag behind the decreasing new case rate. All data is pointing towards a significant flattening, at least in places doing the social distancing. Here in my Midwest city, we’re even seeing lower hospital numbers and have been nowhere close to capacity. ICUs have been busy, but that’s even easing up. We’re not out of the woods, but it’s promising. The question no one is answering is what comes next? When do we open? What do we do with inevitable second wave?

JobsFan said:
does it strike you as odd that trump is blaming the WHO - and so is mini me (Boris Johnson) , but no such criticism out of Italy, spain, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc.

the countries that took it seriously have flattened the curve, the USA had ample opportunity to do the same.
choosing not to implement policy to do so sits squarely with the Trump administratio.
Click to expand...

Not really. Trump deflects blame. He’s also occasionally justified doing so. The same people angry about Trump’s response are now defending the WHO, an international body whose purpose is to prevent and alert everyone about this. Let’s not forget the WHO joined most of the media in condemning the China ban in addition to parroting a bunch of their propaganda all while China was silencing docs and working to control this thing in within their borders. It by no means absolves Trump of his poor initial response with that bought time.
 
JobsFan said:
does it strike you as odd that trump is blaming the WHO - and so is mini me (Boris Johnson) , but no such criticism out of Italy, spain, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc.

the countries that took it seriously have flattened the curve, the USA had ample opportunity to do the same.
choosing not to implement policy to do so sits squarely with the Trump administratio.
Click to expand...
I don't look at political issues, which unfortunately so many nonpolitical stuff becomes, as either/or good/bad. You can like both sides of a political discussion and you can dislike both sides.

Imagine when it's all done if Trump turns out to be an accidental genius (very accidental)? I firmly believe the travel ban was a way to stick it to China similar to trying to stick it to Bezos for US Mail issues (yeah sure, his concern was mail). Trump was literally ahead of every scientist on earth with the travel ban. I know, doctors say he's really good with science... he ain't that good. But it was the right move.

And then he sits around and does nothing while herd immunity grows faster but doesn't bust healthcare at its seems. Jury is still out but that may be another completely accidental "genius" move getting us through this faster while staying under healthcare capacity.

Donald Trump, the Forrest Gump of Pandemic Epidemiology?
 
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pjl said:
That is exactly what our partner anesthesiologists are doing. In fact, we lose money every day due to paying employees. I will not take home a dime, and will just be accruing debt until electives come back.

Still, every one of us is showing up.
Click to expand...
Not quite the same. Its your business so you're working to try and keep it operational until elective cases come back. They're working for a delayed paycheck.
 
anbuitachi said:
Another 6.6m job loss and stock goes up still.
Click to expand...

those job losses were known about weeks ago. I mean we are just getting the actual counting now, but it's not like we haven't all known people were being forced to stay home and not work.
 
Mman said:
those job losses were known about weeks ago. I mean we are just getting the actual counting now, but it's not like we haven't all known people were being forced to stay home and not work.
Click to expand...

Yea. The stock price now is for predictions weeks in advance.
 
Mman said:
as it always is. Stock prices are supposed to be attempting to count for the future earnings extended out forever since that is what ownership of a company is.
Click to expand...

Except Zero interest rates and Federal Reserve asset purchases will distort. The creative destruction of capitalism will be blunted and will slow economic growth long term. That is probably the best case scenario. Money printing will have consequences. Just not sure what or when.
 
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