The ultimate COVID thread

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dchz said:
How big is your portfolio in terms of annual salary? i'm all cash but my portfolio is like 1/10th annual salary.
😊
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Haha, I'm totally with you, only been getting big boy pay for the past 2 years, brokerage accounts (outside of Roth 403b, 457, and 401k, we have a pretty sweet setup) I'm about 1/2 annual salary. Full disclosure, I also live in the Midwest, great cost of living and >95% MGMA
 
OTCAwesome said:
Haha, I'm totally with you, only been getting big boy pay for the past 2 years, brokerage accounts (outside of Roth 403b, 457, and 401k, we have a pretty sweet setup) I'm about 1/2 annual salary. Full disclosure, I also live in the Midwest, great cost of living and >95% MGMA
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Pretty much the same boat here...if I weren’t 1099, I’d give serious consideration to swapping out my emergency fund for stocks. Who knows how long this is going to last and affect elective cases.
 
nimbus said:
One by one, every university is becoming online.
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There may be a silver lining to all this. If schools prove they are able to provide online education this route, there’s a good argument that several schools ought to be providing this sort of education at a STEEP discount
 
I have been buying equities all the way down. I’m Dollar cost averaging my way to the market bottom which I suspect is in the 2400-2500 range (s and p 500). So, I’m using my powder to buy as we approach 2500. I’ll be all in at 2400 which imho may be an intraday low this week or next.

I have been at this game for decades. This too will pass and it won’t matter whether you bought at 2550 or 2450 as the gains will be substantial. With interest rates heading to zero and massive QE stock will easily rebound over 3,000 within the next 12 months. Economic growth will rebound in a V shaped fashion once a decent vaccine is released later this year.

As we approach 2600 I strongly encourage those with a time horizon over 3 years to go All in on equities as we approach the bottom
 
BLADEMDA said:
I have been buying equities all the way down. I’m Dollar cost averaging my way to the market bottom which I suspect is in the 2400-2500 range (s and p 500). So, I’m using my powder to buy as we approach 2500. I’ll be all in at 2400 which imho may be an intraday low this week or next.

I have been at this game for decades. This too will pass and it won’t matter whether you bought at 2550 or 2450 as the gains will be substantial. With interest rates heading to zero and massive QE stock will easily rebound over 3,000 within the next 12 months. Economic growth will rebound in a V shaped fashion once a decent vaccine is released later this year.

As we approach 2600 I strongly encourage those with a time horizon over 3 years to go All in on equities as we approach the bottom
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While I applaud your DCA, one can't predict the bottom.

So either one invests equal amounts EVERY SINGLE MONTH, rain or shine (which most great investors advise non-professionals to do), or one applies the principles of value investing to the entire market, and invests mostly when a major index P/E, or EV/EBIT, or whatever tickles one's fancy is low. From that standpoint, we are still way in overvalued range and have another 25% to go (i.e. S&P 500 of 2100) just to reach its historic median P/E of 15 (which I still wouldn't call cheap). The latter may take decades to happen, hence it's a good idea not to even try to time the market.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 29.34, a change of -0.47 from previous market close.
www.multpl.com

My personal opinion (and bet) is that we ain't seen nothing yet. Once we (and other major developed economies) get into the same level of trouble as Italy, in a month or two, the market will literally crash (no workers = no earnings). But my investing horizon is probably 10+ years longer than Blade's, and I sleep well only if I am 40% in cash equivalents and/or great businesses bought when cheap.
 
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All of a sudden Andrew Yang’s wacko idea of UBI doesn’t look so crazy as more and more people stay home over the next few months. Many of those people are in service industry and “gig economy” type jobs. The Warriors just announced that they are playing home games without fans for the foreseeable future. That’s a lot of people out of work.
 
This Virus won't kill more than 2% of the USA population even if everyone contracts it. Realistically, the infection rate won't even reach a million before a vaccine is released. Yes, the economy will tank for several quarters. If you believe this is the end of the world then buy Gold (which I own). But, IMHO, Gold is overpriced and stocks below 2500 are CHEAP relative to the an interest rate of ZERO with massive QE. Now, if interests rates were 3% or higher one could argue we need a P/E of 10 or less but with 0% interest rates a P/E of 15-16 is more than cheap enough. Look at the history of the stock market from 1998-2020. Learn from all the crashes and Fed interventions. As long as you believe in the USA and a full recovery at some point you literally can't lose buying equities below 2500. Will we hit 2175? If we do I can assure you Ill go from 70% equities to 85% as history has taught me well (2008 crash) that the bigger the fall due to pure fear/panic the bigger the recovery.
 
Those March 2003 lows proved to have been great buying opportunities. Most global markets moved significantly higher over the following months. China’s Shanghai Composite Index did not bottom out until November 2003, but it made a spritely recovery as well.

living_dangerously_030320.jpg


SARS hit the world in 2003
 
BLADEMDA said:
This Virus won't kill more than 2% of the USA population even if everyone contracts it. Realistically, the infection rate won't even reach a million before a vaccine is released. Yes, the economy will tank for several quarters. If you believe this is the end of the world then buy Gold (which I own). But, IMHO, Gold is overpriced and stocks below 2500 are CHEAP relative to the an interest rate of ZERO with massive QE. Now, if interests rates were 3% or higher one could argue we need a P/E of 10 or less but with 0% interest rates a P/E of 15-16 is more than cheap enough. Look at the history of the stock market from 1998-2020. Learn from all the crashes and Fed interventions. As long as you believe in the USA and a full recovery at some point you literally can't lose buying equities below 2500. Will we hit 2175? If we do I can assure you Ill go from 70% equities to 85% as history has taught me well (2008 crash) that the bigger the fall due to pure fear/panic the bigger the recovery.
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While I'm not disagreeing on a long term macro perspective, P/E ratio right this second is a bit of a mirage because likely to see a big pullback on earnings across the board come up. I mean when the NCAA tournament is played without fans, think of all that money that isn't being pumped into local economies. Unemployment rate is going to take a jump up and corporate earnings are going to drop. Are those long term concerns? Not really, but short term it will be a significant hit.
 
BLADEMDA said:
This Virus won't kill more than 2% of the USA population even if everyone contracts it. Realistically, the infection rate won't even reach a million before a vaccine is released. Yes, the economy will tank for several quarters. If you believe this is the end of the world then buy Gold (which I own). But, IMHO, Gold is overpriced and stocks below 2500 are CHEAP relative to the an interest rate of ZERO with massive QE. Now, if interests rates were 3% or higher one could argue we need a P/E of 10 or less but with 0% interest rates a P/E of 15-16 is more than cheap enough. Look at the history of the stock market from 1998-2020. Learn from all the crashes and Fed interventions. As long as you believe in the USA and a full recovery at some point you literally can't lose buying equities below 2500. Will we hit 2175? If we do I can assure you Ill go from 70% equities to 85% as history has taught me well (2008 crash) that the bigger the fall due to pure fear/panic the bigger the recovery.
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The virus won’t kill 6.5 million people? Well that’s good, I guess.

 
humbledollar.com

Grin and Bear It - HumbleDollar

IS THE STOCK MARKET swoon messing with your head? You don’t want to make this market decline any worse than it has to be. To that end, here are 10 steps that’ll help preserve your sanity and your portfolio: Avoid touching both your face and leveraged exchange-traded index funds. Change the...
humbledollar.com humbledollar.com
  1. Avoid touching both your face and leveraged exchange-traded index funds.
  2. Change the password on your investment accounts to “ItsTooLateToSell.”
  3. Downgrade your opinion of investors based on their degree of hysteria.
  4. Don’t watch Contagion, Margin Call or the New York Knicks.
  5. Quarantine your emotions every time the Dow drops 1,000 points.
  6. After your brother-in-law finishes pontificating, ask whether he inherited his clairvoyance from his mother or his father.
  7. Avoid contact with insurance agents pitching equity-indexed annuities. Don’t shake hands with brokers on any deal that promises downside protection.
  8. Unless you live in a ranch-style house, stay away from open windows.
  9. Wash your hands for 20 seconds after watching CNBC.
  10. Use the vacation fund to buy stocks. Mention it to your spouse after he’s had a few drinks.
 
BLADEMDA said:
This Virus won't kill more than 2% of the USA population even if everyone contracts it. Realistically, the infection rate won't even reach a million before a vaccine is released. Yes, the economy will tank for several quarters. If you believe this is the end of the world then buy Gold (which I own). But, IMHO, Gold is overpriced and stocks below 2500 are CHEAP relative to the an interest rate of ZERO with massive QE. Now, if interests rates were 3% or higher one could argue we need a P/E of 10 or less but with 0% interest rates a P/E of 15-16 is more than cheap enough. Look at the history of the stock market from 1998-2020. Learn from all the crashes and Fed interventions. As long as you believe in the USA and a full recovery at some point you literally can't lose buying equities below 2500. Will we hit 2175? If we do I can assure you Ill go from 70% equities to 85% as history has taught me well (2008 crash) that the bigger the fall due to pure fear/panic the bigger the recovery.
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You do realize that 2% of the USA population is 6 million people? Are you out of your mind?
 
facted said:
You do realize that 2% of the USA population is 6 million people? Are you out of your mind?
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Just mathematically-challenged. 😉

It's not the first time people assume Blade is way more evil than he probably is (at least in my book).
 
facted said:
You do realize that 2% of the USA population is 6 million people? Are you out of your mind?
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to be fair a discussion of long term economic impact should be separated from any discussion of clinical relevance. I mean Spanish Flu barely made a dent in anything economic over a 5-10 year time horizon. US GDP didn't even budge.
 
Mman said:
to be fair a discussion of long term economic impact should be separated from any discussion of clinical relevance. I mean Spanish Flu barely made a dent in anything economic over a 5-10 year time horizon. US GDP didn't even budge.
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That was before social media and cable news.
 
facted said:
You do realize that 2% of the USA population is 6 million people? Are you out of your mind?
Click to expand...

There you go again. I assumed WORST CASE SCENARIO where everyone gets infected. A more realistic assessment is 2% mortality out of 1 million infected. That's what I think is realistic here. Now, do the math on that and it's about 1/2 the death rate from the FLU we see in the USA during a bad year where the flu vaccine was relatively ineffective.

My point here is that this is NOT the end of the world as we know it. There will be a vaccine available by Fall at the latest IMHO.

Worst case scenario by the CDC is 45% of the population in the USA gets infected. Are they out of their minds? Here we have the CDC making crazy statements but you chose to focus on mine (taken out of context entirely).
 
FFP said:
They are not really fearful yet. Not even close. I'm still just shrugging my shoulders.

You'll know times are fearful when even YOU will feel apprehensive to buy.
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Are you kidding me? The market is in a free fall like 2007 (late) to 2008. Buying anything now takes a strong will as the FEAR Is palpable. IT takes true discipline to buy stocks in a blood bath. Make no mistake this is a true blood bath of epic proportions as we decline another 5-10% more from here (that is highly likely) with a bottom between 2300 and 2450 (that's what the experts are saying now).

Back in 2008 (january) I deployed my excess cash into the market only to watch it crater even farther into decline. I lost a lot of money between January and late March when the market finally turned around. This time is no different with extreme fear and panic as stocks decline to 30-35% lower than the former high. Any decline greater than 30% is a true bear market and some stocks will see 40-50% declines or more before the blood bath is over.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Are you kidding me? The market is in a free fall like 2007 (late) to 2008. Buying anything now takes a strong will as the FEAR Is palpable. IT takes true discipline to buy stocks in a blood bath. Make no mistake this is a true blood bath of epic proportions as we decline another 5-10% more from here (that is highly likely) with a bottom between 2300 and 2450 (that's what the experts are saying now).
Click to expand...
We ain't seen nothing yet. Wait till we get a few thousand dead every day, with people afraid to get out and go to work. THAT will be real stock market panic and massacre. This is just... an appetizer. Still some wishful thinking about the warm weather fixing our problems, and a lot of heads in the sand. How long has it been, 2 weeks? We have "bearly" reached the threshold for recession. The night is far from dark yet. 20% = "blood bath"? 🤣

The "experts" have no idea what they are talking about, as usual. Otherwise they would be laying in the sun, on their private island. None of us really do. This bear market won't be over at least until the coronavirus panic is over. Even then, with the drop in earnings and employment for the next 1-2 quarters, it will take a while to revive the bullish sentiment, especially if Trump messes up and/or the Dems win the elections.
 
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.
vector2 said:
No wonder futures dropping



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This president's incompetence will make us a lot of money. He's unconvincing even when reading a teleprompter.

"The virus will not have a chance against us." I have just one question: did anybody tell the virus? 🤣
 
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okayplayer said:
And I would have lost 60% gains over the past 5 years on that money while waiting “for a situation like this” (that may or may not have even come).

I was not gifted with your ability to “sense the bottom” of the market. So instead I dollar cost average up and I dollar cost average down by auto investing every 2 weeks.

You do you. I’ll continue to invest this way through all market conditions.
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How you feeling about that 60% gain!!!!!

😉
 
It's tough to sit by and watch this as a resident with no money to invest right now.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Are you kidding me? The market is in a free fall like 2007 (late) to 2008. Buying anything now takes a strong will as the FEAR Is palpable. IT takes true discipline to buy stocks in a blood bath. Make no mistake this is a true blood bath of epic proportions as we decline another 5-10% more from here (that is highly likely) with a bottom between 2300 and 2450 (that's what the experts are saying now).

Back in 2008 (january) I deployed my excess cash into the market only to watch it crater even farther into decline. I lost a lot of money between January and late March when the market finally turned around. This time is no different with extreme fear and panic as stocks decline to 30-35% lower than the former high. Any decline greater than 30% is a true bear market and some stocks will see 40-50% declines or more before the blood bath is over.
Click to expand...

we just creeped into bear market territory. This certainly isn't 2008 where the market ended up more than 50% down from recent highs. Drop another 30-40% from today and that is true blood bath territory.
 
FFP said:
.

This president's incompetence will make us a lot of money. He's unconvincing even when reading a teleprompter.

"The virus will not have a chance against us." I have just one question: did anybody tell the virus? 🤣
Click to expand...

Wait, are you suggesting that viruses don’t respond to bravado?
 
Mman said:
we just creeped into bear market territory. This certainly isn't 2008 where the market ended up more than 50% down from recent highs. Drop another 30-40% from today and that is true blood bath territory.
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If we go down another 1/3, I have to confess I may not merely rebalance (sell bonds & buy stocks to my AA), but I might adjust that AA to 90% or even 100% equity. It'd be hard to resist that kind of discount vs anticipated valuations in the year 2050.

One thing I definitely won't do, hell or high (low) water, is sell any equities.
 
pgg said:
If we go down another 1/3, I have to confess I may not merely rebalance (sell bonds & buy stocks to my AA), but I might adjust that AA to 90% or even 100% equity. It'd be hard to resist that kind of discount vs anticipated valuations in the year 2050.

One thing I definitely won't do, hell or high (low) water, is sell any equities.
Click to expand...

this is my current quandary - at what point do I move to 100% equities with the sale going on.
 
Southpaw said:
this is my current quandary - at what point do I move to 100% equities with the sale going on.
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no need to ever go to 100%. There just isn't enough benefit to anything beyond about 80/20. I mean maybe go 90/10 if you are really feeling it.
 
Mman said:
7th largest S&P drop in the lifetime of anybody posting here, only topped by 2 days in 1987 and 4 days in 2008. Gotta go back to the 1930s to see anything else larger.
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And then there is today... i don’t know what that poster was saying earlier in the thread. I am sure he is back pedaling now.
 
I’ve been buying on the way down.
Still sitting on a ton of CD’s and bonds since 28k on the dow. Will buy more again today.
 
sevoflurane said:
And then there is today... i don’t know what that poster was saying earlier in the thread. I am sure he is back pedaling now.
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currently down 15% or so from where it closed on Friday


Bulls climb up the stairs, bears jump out the window is definitely an apt description of recent activity.
 
buying today. rebalancing band hit.

N.B. Corporate and muni bonds taking it on the chin. In a panic there are two assets only: cash/nominal treaurys and everything else. Diversification into multiple equity asset classes fails when we need it most.
 
This will be a good test to my Vegas Hotels investments. Both being built now, so no loss in revenue. Just money that is’t tied up in the market. If housing starts to fall like 2008, then i’ll definitely be looking locally at big discounts.
 
sevoflurane said:
Well put @Mman
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It is what it is. The reason stocks have great returns over time is because of volatility. It's not a straight march up. My retirement accounts and pension are autopilot that never get touched. My taxable stuff is 50% autopilot and 50% me and back in January I trimmed a few equity positions that had tremendous gains and added to my municipal bond fund since I had no great ideas on anything else to buy.

I have not yet pulled out the money cannon to start buying, but I'm not far off from it. S&P starts pushing 2000 and I will be shoving it in as fast as I can. It feels like the exponential growth of this infection is going to keep things dropping for another few weeks (at least).
 
To put things in perspective 2008 was 56% drop. Currently we are hovering around 25% drop.
 
You guys think we are near the bottom?

2008- financial/housing crisis. Government not as astute in printing money

2020- transient virus (even though we are likely in the 1st or 2nd inning). Government will stimulate, give tax breaks, delay fed taxes etc etc
 
“Trump May use emergency powers.”
 
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