The ultimate COVID thread

[Mman]

But DCFs are completely worthless especially when there are some many variables the farther you go into the future.

the future cash flow of the company (discounted to present value) is literally what you are purchasing when you buy a stock. There is no difference (except voting rights) between buying an entire a company and buying a single share of it's stock.

Now you can argue that in the short term that might not be the most predictive thing for stock price, but for long term it is the only thing that matters and since nobody here should be a trader then they should always be thinking long term. The rest is just noise that occasionally provides a nice time to buy or sell as you see fit but you will never be forced into the buying or selling when the price is inconvenient to you.

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[Epilepsy365]

the future cash flow of the company (discounted to present value) is literally what you are purchasing when you buy a stock. There is no difference (except voting rights) between buying an entire a company and buying a single share of it's stock.

Now you can argue that in the short term that might not be the most predictive thing for stock price, but for long term it is the only thing that matters and since nobody here should be a trader then they should always be thinking long term. The rest is just noise that occasionally provides a nice time to buy or sell as you see fit but you will never be forced into the buying or selling when the price is inconvenient to you.

I know what DCF is. I honestly don’t know any professionals that even use it on the equity trading side for a couple of reasons:

1) It uses a certain % of growth in cash flow for good companies which leaves room for a lot of errors
2) It doesn’t account into cash flow constriction or expansion due to new leaderships, new tech, innovative products, consumer taste, etc...
3) 10+ years is a long time

The only time that I have ever seen DCF used is either in the classroom or in an analyst report to the mass. It is as useless as P/E, cash flow ins and outs, etc...

A new bull market emerges every decade based on history in the past 100 years, and always has new market leaders. Consequently, the valuation of a company based on DCF from past metrics is completely useless.

 

[Mman]

I know what DCF is. I honestly don’t know any professionals that even use it on the equity trading side for a couple of reasons:

1) It uses a certain % of growth in cash flow for good companies which leaves room for a lot of errors
2) It doesn’t account into cash flow constriction or expansion due to new leaderships, new tech, innovative products, consumer taste, etc...
3) 10+ years is a long time

The only time that I have ever seen DCF used is either in the classroom or in an analyst report to the mass. It is as useless as P/E, cash flow ins and outs, etc...

A new bull market emerges every decade based on history in the past 100 years, and always has new market leaders. Consequently, the valuation of a company based on DCF from past metrics is completely useless.

I am not referring to a DCF based model used to price a stock today or tomorrow or whenever. I'm saying when you own a company, what you get out of it is all the future cash it spits out. That's all a company is, a means to produce cash to you as the owner. When you buy a stock, that's what you get and when you own a company it is yours forever (or until you die) unless you sell that ownership interest to someone else for a price. That future cash flow takes EVERYTHING into consideration and there are very few things on a short term basis that should materially impact your assessment of that on the long term.

That future cash flow is determined by profit margins, innovation, competition, etc. And the long term cash flow is rarely impacted by things like recessions and viruses and what not. These are all short term bumps in the road that do nothing but provide buying opportunities for the long term investor.

 

[sevoflurane]

This drop is nothing in comparison to the Wild West time bet 2008-2009

Anything else you would like to add?
Nothing in comparison?
7.7% in one day is a monster move in the wrong direction.

 

[GravelRider]

Some universities have voluntarily shut down. There are school districts that are shutting down. Is it a bad look for hospitals to continue to perform elective, non-urgent surgery? Maybe that knee replacement can wait a few months until this blows over? I don’t know the right answer to that, but it is worth thinking about.

 

[dchz]

View attachment 297981

It was like a week ago everyone in this thread told me to buy in. @abolt18 @SaltyDog

If you truly can predict the market and make 15-25% long term then you definitely should not be in medicine. Plenty of ibanks or large funds that would be glad to pay you north of 100 mill/ yr if you can prove it.

Dude it's not that hard. duh? you just have to bUy ThE rIgHt StOcKs!!!

 

[deleted162650]

It was like a week ago everyone in this thread told me to buy in. @abolt18 @SaltyDog

I don’t know WTF you’re talking about. I told you to hold cash for the next 30 years.

 

[deleted59964]

It was like a week ago everyone in this thread told me to buy in. @abolt18 @SaltyDog

not everyone

 

[Epilepsy365]

Anything else you would like to add?
Nothing in comparison?
7.7% in one day is a monster move in the wrong direction.

Yeah it’s nothing in comparison to the days post Lehman when you see GS and MS dropping by 20-30% per day for a week. 10-12% drop among the oil majors is very mild when their revenues just got slashed by 30% with increasing negative profit margin.

Get me a 15-18% day drop and I will be mildly interested. But I understand why people are freaking out and talking about it though.

 

[abolt18]

It was like a week ago everyone in this thread told me to buy in. @abolt18 @SaltyDog



Dude it's not that hard. duh? you just have to bUy ThE rIgHt StOcKs!!!

And I stand by it. Just start sneaking it in little by little (DCA) if your FOMO is just too much to handle. Otherwise save yourself the anxiety and stress and just make a plan and do it instead of perpetually waiting for things to stop falling.

 

[deleted59964]

View attachment 297965

Username checks out

 

[deleted59964]

And I stand by it. Just start sneaking it in little by little (DCA) if your FOMO is just too much to handle. Otherwise save yourself the anxiety and stress and just make a plan and do it instead of perpetually waiting for things to stop falling.

I’ll wait till

fatality rate decreases in Western Europe, South Korea, and the USA
and
financial statements come out

Apple Sold 60 Percent Fewer iPhones in China Last Month Compared to February 2019 Amid Coronavirus Restrictions

Apple sold fewer than 500,000 iPhones in China last month amid the ongoing curbs on travel and transport, according to government data shared on Monday (via Reuters). That amounts to an almost 60 percent slump in iPhone sales - worse than IDC's forecasted drop in overall smartphone sales of...

forums.macrumors.com

I don’t care if I miss the absolute bottom

 

[marr65]

Some universities have voluntarily shut down. There are school districts that are shutting down. Is it a bad look for hospitals to continue to perform elective, non-urgent surgery? Maybe that knee replacement can wait a few months until this blows over? I don’t know the right answer to that, but it is worth thinking about.

CDC just recommends that people over 60 to stay home and buckle up. Will this decrease the number of elective surgeries in next few weeks?

 

[pgg]

I feel like covid is mother nature’s way of telling us to slow down, stop running around like crazy headless chickens, and stop our hyperconsumption. I kinda hope the slowdown is permanent.

Nature doesn't like to be anthropomorphized.

 

[GravelRider]

Nature doesn't like to be anthropomorphized.

Mother Nature is a cruel, cold-hearted b!tch...and it kind of turns me on.

 

[calvnandhobbs68]

I’ll wait till

fatality rate decreases in Western Europe, South Korea, and the USA
and
financial statements come out

Apple Sold 60 Percent Fewer iPhones in China Last Month Compared to February 2019 Amid Coronavirus Restrictions

Apple sold fewer than 500,000 iPhones in China last month amid the ongoing curbs on travel and transport, according to government data shared on Monday (via Reuters). That amounts to an almost 60 percent slump in iPhone sales - worse than IDC's forecasted drop in overall smartphone sales of...

forums.macrumors.com

I don’t care if I miss the absolute bottom

This is probably right.

Wait for the earnings statements to come out from this quarter for the real blood in the water. Those P/E ratios are definitely not gonna be up to date at this point. Airlines are gonna tank, entertainment is gonna tank, cruise lines are going to be lucky to stay "afloat". Oil companies are gonna have to try to weather out this price war between Russia and the Saudis. Companies are going to start putting out little "statements" in the coming month or two just so their stock doesn't tank so hard when they have to release results.

 

[Wkrdoc]

Okay, so enough of the Bs. What stocks are everyone buying???


Exxon
Royal Caribbean
Disney
NVDA
ENPH

???

 

[okayplayer]

Okay, so enough of the Bs. What stocks are everyone buying???


Exxon
Royal Caribbean
Disney
NVDA
ENPH

???

Vtsax

 

[Wkrdoc]

When are you guys going to jump in? I’m thinking the end of the week

 

[okayplayer]

When are you guys going to jump in? I’m thinking the end of the week

10th and 25th every month.

I have nothing on the sidelines (other than 3 months living expenses in cash) so I am all in all the time. Because of my very long time horizon, my IPS calls for 70% total stock, 25% total international/emerging markets, 5% REIT. Per the IPS, I rebalance annually in January. This changes nothing for me.

 

[OTCAwesome]

If you have the ability to be all cash right now, do it, this is only going to get worse, there may be a bump, however quarterly earnings will kill all of this

 

[IlDestriero]

This didn’t expose some major flaw in the fabric of the financial industry, it’s not the Black Death leaving 1/3 of the world dead. I’ll retire in 10 years and the market will go down more, recover, decline and recover again by that time with a steady climb and a nice ocean front/view cottage in my future, on the pacific or the med. We’ll have to see how high we can still fly.

 

[facted]

If you guys think this is bad, wait until a major city in the US goes on lockdown telling people to stay home and closes schools for weeks or months.

This is just the beginning of the storm.

Some universities have voluntarily shut down. There are school districts that are shutting down. Is it a bad look for hospitals to continue to perform elective, non-urgent surgery? Maybe that knee replacement can wait a few months until this blows over? I don’t know the right answer to that, but it is worth thinking about.

You're right and it's not even close. We need to start instituting strong non pharmacy intervention and it starts with keeping as many people we can at home. Testing the **** out of everyone is super important as well.

 

[facted]

When are you guys going to jump in? I’m thinking the end of the week

You think this is the end? We are barely getting started here. Do you think consumer confidence rises when US cities start going on quarantine?

I get it if you everyone wants to invest over time and not time the market. But if you do, I personally think there's room to go here. US cases will rise signicantly with plenty of deaths and this will cause even further panic. Actual quarantines will be enacted at some point in some cities which will drive consumer demand through the floor.

Then wait until earnings time...

But I would agree with just putting in some money every week now over the next 3 months. Things are definitely on sale now.

 

[Mman]

Yeah it’s nothing in comparison to the days post Lehman when you see GS and MS dropping by 20-30% per day for a week. 10-12% drop among the oil majors is very mild when their revenues just got slashed by 30% with increasing negative profit margin.

Get me a 15-18% day drop and I will be mildly interested. But I understand why people are freaking out and talking about it though.

The 3 largest drops in S&P history were 20% on Black Monday and 12% and 10% in October of 1929. And back in 2008, neither Goldman nor Morgan Stanley had a stock price drop by 20-30% per day for a week. They each had a couple 10-15% down days (followed by some big occasional ups).

 

[Mman]

If you have the ability to be all cash right now, do it, this is only going to get worse, there may be a bump, however quarterly earnings will kill all of this

nobody should ever be all cash

 

[Mman]

Anything else you would like to add?
Nothing in comparison?
7.7% in one day is a monster move in the wrong direction.

7th largest S&P drop in the lifetime of anybody posting here, only topped by 2 days in 1987 and 4 days in 2008. Gotta go back to the 1930s to see anything else larger.

 

[vector2]

7th largest S&P drop in the lifetime of anybody posting here, only topped by 2 days in 1987 and 4 days in 2008. Gotta go back to the 1930s to see anything else larger.

Would love to see the historical data for how long after each of those days the market continued to decline and how long until a new uptrend was established.

 

[Epilepsy365]

The 3 largest drops in S&P history were 20% on Black Monday and 12% and 10% in October of 1929. And back in 2008, neither Goldman nor Morgan Stanley had a stock price drop by 20-30% per day for a week. They each had a couple 10-15% down days (followed by some big occasional ups).

No, GS and MS did drop 20-30% per day for a week in 2008. I know bc I traded them.

In fact, I bought MS at 8.xx on a Friday when there were rumors of Mitsubishi Bank backing out of the supposed deal of buying MS at 24-28. I saw the stock price jumping up to the 20.xx on the following Monday and Tuesday.

Look through the daily quotes for MS during the first week of Oct if you want.

 

[okayplayer]

If you have the ability to be all cash right now, do it, this is only going to get worse, there may be a bump, however quarterly earnings will kill all of this

You should read about the Efficient Market theory. All available information (and even information you and I aren’t privy too) is ALREADY priced into the market.

 

[Wkrdoc]

10th and 25th every month.

I have nothing on the sidelines (other than 3 months living expenses in cash) so I am all in all the time. Because of my very long time horizon, my IPS calls for 70% total stock, 25% total international/emerging markets, 5% REIT. Per the IPS, I rebalance annually in January. This changes nothing for me.

Dumb. ALWAYS have cash sitting around for a situation like this.

 

[okayplayer]

Dumb. ALWAYS have cash sitting around for a situation like this.

And I would have lost 60% gains over the past 5 years on that money while waiting “for a situation like this” (that may or may not have even come).

I was not gifted with your ability to “sense the bottom” of the market. So instead I dollar cost average up and I dollar cost average down by auto investing every 2 weeks.

You do you. I’ll continue to invest this way through all market conditions.

 

[okayplayer]

“The market timer’s Hall of Fame is an empty room.” - Jane Quinn

 

[Mman]

No, GS and MS did drop 20-30% per day for a week in 2008. I know bc I traded them.

In fact, I bought MS at 8.xx on a Friday when there were rumors of Mitsubishi Bank backing out of the supposed deal of buying MS at 24-28. I saw the stock price jumping up to the 20.xx on the following Monday and Tuesday.

Look through the daily quotes for MS during the first week of Oct if you want.

I literally looked at the daily trading prices from October and described them for you.

Morgan Stanley's closing price daily starting October 1, 2008 (rounding off the pennies)...

24
23
24
24
18
17
13
10
18
22
18
19
19
20
20

Yes there were 3 really bad days in 1 week, but it certainly wasn't falling a minimum of 20% every day for an entire week. Goldman's fall was even less dropping from $124 on Monday to closing at $89 on Friday.

 

[nimbus]

I take monthly screenshots of my net worth. Even though my accounts are now down 16% from their peak, I’m now back to Nov 2019. People seem to forget there was actually a massive runup immediately prior to this crash. I’ll keep saving and investing, DCA because I’m lazy.

 

[Epilepsy365]

I literally looked at the daily trading prices from October and described them for you.

Morgan Stanley's closing price daily starting October 1, 2008 (rounding off the pennies)...

24
23
24
24
18
17
13
10
18
22
18
19
19
20
20

Yes there were 3 really bad days in 1 week, but it certainly wasn't falling a minimum of 20% every day for an entire week. Goldman's fall was even less dropping from $124 on Monday to closing at $89 on Friday.

You are missing Oct 10 2008 quote there printing at 7.xx at the closing.

So it went from about $20 at the beginning of that week to the low of about $6 on Friday. It certainly didn’t drop consistently 20% every day but the average daily drop from Monday opening to Friday low was on average 20% per day.

 

[Mman]

You are missing Oct 10 2008 quote there printing at 7.xx at the closing.

So it went from about $20 at the beginning of that week to the low of about $6 on Friday. It certainly didn’t drop consistently 20% every day but the average daily drop from Monday opening to Friday low was on average 20% per day.

Oct 10 closing price was $9.68.

 

[Crash44]

Wasn’t sure which thread this should go in, but anyone have updates on anesthesia conferences (ASRA, SCA, MARC etc) if they are being cancelled/postponed because of this thing?

 

[JiPo]

Wasn’t sure which thread this should go in, but anyone have updates on anesthesia conferences (ASRA, SCA, MARC etc) if they are being cancelled/postponed because of this thing?

I am not allowed to go to SCA bc of the virus situation (Program policy), but I dont know if SCA is cancelled yet

 

[dchz]

If you have the ability to be all cash right now, do it, this is only going to get worse, there may be a bump, however quarterly earnings will kill all of this

I'm in all cash right now

nobody should ever be all cash

I've decided to time the market, i'm all cash

Would love to see the historical data for how long after each of those days the market continued to decline and how long until a new uptrend was established.

I've seen the chart in econ in college, but i don't have a reference. it's usually about a year.

You should read about the Efficient Market theory. All available information (and even information you and I aren’t privy too) is ALREADY priced into the market.

As an econ major, I have. I don't believe it. managing stock with the assumption of an efficient market is like doing a case and using SVV as your measure of preload - A LOT of assumptions that aren't true.

“The market timer’s Hall of Fame is an empty room.” - Jane Quinn

If they are all equally as bad, shouldn't all of them be in the HOF?

I am not allowed to go to SCA bc of the virus situation (Program policy), but I dont know if SCA is cancelled yet

No email yet, i paid for hotel and airline... what a major F up if i didn't

 

[BLADEMDA]

The support for the stocks are likely 5-7 percent lower from here. At that point stocks would have retraced back to the low of 2018 wiping out 2 years of gains.

I’m a buyer at the low from yesterday and 5 percent lower from there. You don’t need to pick the bottom just get close. We will be very close if you buy in 5 percent lower.

As for not having any cash 2008 was a clear lesson that 100 percent equities is a highly risky venture which can be modified with cash/bonds or CDs allowing one to take advantage of market crashes of 25 percent or more.

Many stocks are down 30-40 percent from their inflated highs. Anyone investing in equities needs to look at P/Es and irrational exuberance before going all in. The time to be a little conservative is after major short bull runs like we had October through February.

Anyway those smart enough to have cash on hand will reap huge gains once we recover in 4-6 months.

 

[ChiDO]

The annual orthopaedic meeting, AAOS, was cancelled today.

 

[nimbus]

One by one, every university is becoming online.

 

[Mman]

One by one, every university is becoming online.

if it's good enough for a DNP...

 

[OTCAwesome]

nobody should ever be all cash

I'm all cash, except for the swing trades I've been making, I don't believe by any means we have seen the bottom yet

 

[Wkrdoc]

And I would have lost 60% gains over the past 5 years on that money while waiting “for a situation like this” (that may or may not have even come).

I was not gifted with your ability to “sense the bottom” of the market. So instead I dollar cost average up and I dollar cost average down by auto investing every 2 weeks.

You do you. I’ll continue to invest this way through all market conditions.

How cute

 

[dchz]

I'm all cash, except for the swing trades I've been making, I don't believe by any means we have seen the bottom yet

How big is your portfolio in terms of annual salary? i'm all cash but my portfolio is like 1/10th annual salary.

 

[Mman]

I'm all cash, except for the swing trades I've been making, I don't believe by any means we have seen the bottom yet

Ben Graham once said everybody should always have between 25% and 75% of their portfolio in equities. Wise man. Since nobody can time the market perfectly, that 25% allocation helps you catch the rise up even if you are otherwise wanting to be out of it without exposing much downside at all.

 

[Wkrdoc]

Anyone know how long the H1N1 pandemic lasted?

 

[deleted162650]

I just hope this doesn’t get as bad as Swine Flu.