The ultimate COVID thread

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facted said:
Scariest part for me is that I'm seeing people in this thread, just today, still thinking this thing is not that bad and we're overacting.
Click to expand...
Knowing the right balance is impossible at this point. Meaning, we can't simply look at one side of the equation, lives lost, as the only variable. Stopping the economy to a halt while everyone stays inside has severe consequences, even lives lost that are harder to measure, and the benefits remain a bit unclear. Let's say summer does not significantly kill this virus. That's up for debate as no one knows, and we have no vaccine, so the main known benefit of all the isolation is slowing the need for acute ICU beds. But under those assumptions, in the long run basically everyone stills gets exposed and the virus still runs it's mostly full course.

We can't stay inside forever and enough people, such as healthcare workers, grocery stores etc, are constantly being exposed and keeping the spread going. There's a massive cost for delaying out what may be inevitable anyway. Means of production will be screeching to a halt. The number of Americans living paycheck to paycheck is astronomical. The faith in government is laughable. They couldn't contain LA after Rodney King or New Orleans after Katrina. There's zero chance government and national guard etc can maintain order in a complete economic shutdown. Other ideas like the Fed printing extensive money is also a joke of a bandade. So, don't know the answer of what's the right balance, but at some point overreacting even in the face of a deadly virus can certainly be worse than facing the virus head on. Heck, we in healthcare face it head on every single day, "Here I am virus, come get me."
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Knowing the right balance is impossible at this point. Meaning, we can't simply look at one side of the equation, lives lost, as the only variable. Stopping the economy to a halt while everyone stays inside has severe consequences, even lives lost that are harder to measure, and the benefits remain a bit unclear. Let's say summer does not significantly kill this virus. That's up for debate as no one knows, and we have no vaccine, so the main known benefit of all the isolation is slowing the need for acute ICU beds. But under those assumptions, in the long run basically everyone stills gets exposed and the virus still runs it's mostly full course.

We can't stay inside forever and enough people, such as healthcare workers, grocery stores etc, are constantly being exposed and keeping the spread going. There's a massive cost for delaying out what may be inevitable anyway. Means of production will be screeching to a halt. The number of Americans living paycheck to paycheck is astronomical. The faith in government is laughable. They couldn't contain LA after Rodney King or New Orleans after Katrina. There's zero chance government and national guard etc can maintain order in a complete economic shutdown. Other ideas like the Fed printing extensive money is also a joke of a bandade. So, don't know the answer of what's the right balance, but at some point overreacting even in the face of a deadly virus can certainly be worse than facing the virus head on. Heck, we in healthcare face it head on every single day, "Here I am virus, come get me."
Click to expand...
I'm sorry, but this has long ceased to be about the economy. The economy is screwed. I get it. I really do. But the only way to solve that issue is to get a handle on the virus. And if you are taking steps to "help the economy" and not focusing solely on the virus, it's unfortunately a mis-step IMO.

And we're not anywhere near over-reacting. Just look at what China did in Wuhan and what Italy did. Do you think they chose to lockdown and destroy their economies? Or do you think they saw they had no choice. Why do you think we're different?

There's also a HUGE reason to flatten the infection curve and it's not too reduce total cases. We need to reduce the influx of patients at one time or we will get decimated like Italy is now and Wuhan was at the beginning.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
In other words, if you don't understand it it must not be true. Curious, do you consult Warren Buffett when you start a difficult case? By following your logic a world renown expert on fundamentals of a company and long term investing must also be an expert in completely unrelated topics. You do know all the "experts" were wrong and we have a round globe, right?

I'm not saying all those garbage equations and formulas can be plugged into every chart and give you mostly correct answers. It won't. But if you're saying trendlines, testing the breakout, filling the gap, dead cat bounces etc etc etc are all hokus pokus then it would be impossible for me to convince big ego doctors they simply are wrong. There are situations that absolutely scream what the company and stock price will be doing. Technical Analysis and more what I look at, specific chart patterns and movement, is by nature a very addictive field. Being able to patiently wait out that perfect chart killing without feeling the need to bet on every single other movement you see I'd guess probably takes down many of the very few traders that actually do have a feel for it, the ones not just plugging in a bunch of mindless TA formulas from a video, in the same way addictive gambling takes down all gamblers.

Do you really think it's coincidence that a stock just cruising along suddenly begins diving over a few days for absolutely no known reason, no news, no market turmoil, no acute technical correcting, nothing? Are you actually shocked when that company after a week or two of this announce something horrible? The chart was screaming this to you all week or so. Insiders have been making moves on information you don't have and it shows in the chart. There are infinite number of situations where the chart of past is telling you the future, but your ego will never allow it, so that's fine. I have no need to convince you just as long as you aren't cutting my head off for telling you the world actually is round.
Click to expand...

I understand technical analysis quite well. It seems that you don't get it. I'll go out on a limb and suggest you personally have less than 25 years experience using it. I will also guess that you have no comment on essentially the entirety of academic research at this point discrediting it as anything of useful value for investment.

And any comment on your only 2 posts on SDN being in this thread? Seems an odd thing for an aspiring doctor to choose to post in.
 
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FFP said:
There is one with dementia in the White House right now. The anger, the forgetfulness, the confabulation, the slurring of speech, you name it. He's clearly a shadow of DJT from 10-15 years ago.
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I meant a different candidate than Biden whose ideas are perfect for times like these but is being sidelined by the DNC.
 
facted said:
Scariest part for me is that I'm seeing people in this thread, just today, still thinking this thing is not that bad and we're overacting.
Click to expand...

call me what you want, but losing 3-4K elderly immunocompromised people is natural selection and has been occurring for 10s of thousands of years.

why bring the country to its knees and potentially alter the lives of our kids?
 
Wkrdoc said:
call me what you want, but losing 3-4K elderly immunocompromised people is natural selection and has been occurring for 10s of thousands of years.

why bring the country to its knees and potentially alter the lives of our kids?
Click to expand...
Read the epidemiological thread.

In a civilized country, letting the old and disabled die is called eugenics. Our entire civilization is set up to prevent "natural selection", and protect the right to "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" for everybody.
 
FFP said:
Read the epidemiological thread.

In a civilized country, letting the old and disabled die is called eugenics. Our entire civilization is set up to prevent "natural selection", and protect the right to "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" for everybody.
Click to expand...

well, making the majority the sacrificial lamb for the minority is just plain stupid. But I digress
 
FFP said:
Read the epidemiological thread.

In a civilized country, letting the old and disabled die is called eugenics. Our entire civilization is set up to prevent "natural selection", and protect the right to "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" for everybody.
Click to expand...

Nobody said anything about letting them die either. They will get the medical care they need/deserve
 
FFP said:
I'm sure that's what you will tell them (and your family) when they can't get an ICU bed, or are not even triaged due to age, as in Italy.
Click to expand...

why do we immediately compare ourselves to Italy?

why can’t we be compared to a country with minimal impact?

scare tactics
 
Wkrdoc said:
why do we immediately compare ourselves to Italy?

why can’t we be compared to a country with minimal impact?

scare tactics
Click to expand...
There is no reason NOT to compare with Italy. Or China. There is nothing special about us; if anything, we have a pretty shaky leadership right now.

It's just a matter of time. Basic epidemiology.
 
FFP said:
There is no reason NOT to compare with Italy. Or China. There is nothing special about us; if anything, we have a pretty shaky leadership right now.
Click to expand...

so compare yourself to the worst outcomes? Why that logic? It’s more likely we will be minimally impacted like most other countries

I’m all for plan for the worst hope for the best. But we have a much more robust medical system than Italy. Bring it on

we have 41 total deaths. This is a joke thus far. Influenza has killed 20k

Texas declared a state of emergency with 40 infected and ZERO DEATHS. Just ridiculous im sorry
 
.
Wkrdoc said:
so compare yourself to the worst outcomes? Why that logic? It’s more likely we will be minimally impacted like most other countries

I’m all for plan for the worst hope for the best. But we have a much more robust medical system than Italy. Bring it on

we have 41 total deaths. This is a joke thus far. Influenza has killed 20k

Texas declared a state of emergency with 40 infected and ZERO DEATHS. Just ridiculous im sorry
Click to expand...
Let me help you:
forums.studentdoctor.net

Covid19 - clinical / epidemiological thread

forums.studentdoctor.net forums.studentdoctor.net
 
A bit of financial (and mathematical education) about the power of exponential functions (for the math-challenged):
www.modern-dollar.com

A Penny Doubled or $1,000,000 — Modern Dollar

Would you rather have $1,000,000 or the sum of a penny doubled every day for 30 days? If you did the math, you know that the magical penny is the correct answer and by a long shot. By the end of a month, you’d have $10,737,418.24.
www.modern-dollar.com www.modern-dollar.com

Hope this will help people imagine how bad it can be in just a few weeks if we don't control this epidemic. And stop saying "but, but, but... we have only X cases".
 
FFP said:
A bit of financial (and mathematical education) about the power of exponential functions (for the math-challenged):
www.modern-dollar.com

A Penny Doubled or $1,000,000 — Modern Dollar

Would you rather have $1,000,000 or the sum of a penny doubled every day for 30 days? If you did the math, you know that the magical penny is the correct answer and by a long shot. By the end of a month, you’d have $10,737,418.24.
www.modern-dollar.com www.modern-dollar.com

Hope this will help people imagine how bad it can be in just a few weeks if we don't control this epidemic. And stop saying "but, but, but... we have only X cases".
Click to expand...

My worst fear is obviously the nightmare exponential scenario. My 2nd worst fear is that we successfully implement a curve flattening strategy and really stupid people misinterpret the seriousness of future viral epidemics because "the last one wasn't that bad"
 
vector2 said:
His executive order won't actually change your monthly payment. You still have to pay in full but it goes entirely toward principal. That's nice, but it doesn't really help if youre unable to actually make the full payment. Fyi, dems were requesting temporary payment freeze or partial forgiveness.
Click to expand...
Forbearance with no interest for 3 or 6 months would've meant something.

Waiving interest only is just silly. It costs the government/taxpayer money, but doesn't actually help the people who need help. Cost but no benefit. It's almost beautiful in its pristine pointlessness, as useless as ...

hqdefault.jpg
 
SaltyDog said:
Forgive my ignorance, but has this been a disaster throughout the whole of Italy, or has it remained localized to northern Italy (where it has clearly been tragic).
Click to expand...

Here's the Wikipedia map as of right now.

220px-COVID-19_Outbreak_Cases_in_Italy_%28Density%29.svg.png


I can't speculate how bad it'll get in the south. On one hand, there are widespread credible reports of people "fleeing" the quarantine in the north to head south, which bodes ill. On the other hand, the whole country is now on sorta-lockdown and there's a lot fewer people in contact with each other every day.

I call it sorta-lockdown because the roads aren't blocked, grocery stores are open, people can go to work
 
I don't think there's any measures here short of Marshall Law type lockdown that will make much difference at this point. At least not in the big cities and high population density areas. Rural locations are a bit of a different story. Plenty of people are still out and about, playing basketball at the park, sitting outside at bars, eating at restaurants (although many have canceled reservations to move tables further apart - as if this makes much of a difference). I agree with many others that it is hard to ignore Italy and China's accounts, however most people seem to have no problem doing just that. Ignorance is bliss and until it's right in your face, business as usual.

I have a hard time even convincing my wife and extended family that they should begin social distancing immediately and only go outside if they really need to and can stay away from other. Had an ID friend (Physician assistant) say he thinks this will blow over and run it's course by the end of the month. Went to get a haircut today, gym, grocery store, etc.. And I actually thought this guy was somewhat intelligent. Initially I considered this to be the event of the year, then perhaps the decade. Now I don't even know - easily gearing up to be one of the most significant and impactful events of my entire life, and I'm in my mid 30s. I hope I'm wrong.
 
pgg said:
Forbearance with no interest for 3 or 6 months would've meant something.

Waiving interest only is just silly. It costs the government/taxpayer money, but doesn't actually help the people who need help. Cost but no benefit. It's almost beautiful in its pristine pointlessness, as useless as ...

hqdefault.jpg
Click to expand...
It helps me, and I’ll happily take all I can get from the federal government. My payments going toward the principal Instead of interest is awesome for me.
A lot of us young non military guys are carrying a lot of med school debt.
I’d rather not pay interest to the federal government who will use it to fight wars that are even more pointless!
 
Orangetop is a selfish egoistic a..hole who dosent want to quarantine because he think it will tank the market and make him look bad. The ***** also thinks the virus will magically go away at some point. Wrong. What is going to happen is that its going to spread further in the next week and then a million people are going to need hospitalization at the same time.
 
FFP said:
I'm sure that's what you will tell them (and your family) when they can't get an ICU bed, or are not even triaged due to age and overcrowding, as in Italy.
Click to expand...
I have to say I'm enjoying one thing about this outbreak: it's really revealing the deep down character of people like I've never seen before.

I've been on SDN a while now and I can't remember seeing so many different posters all at once do things that make me say "man, there is something wrong with that person".
 
Wkrdoc said:
why do we immediately compare ourselves to Italy?

why can’t we be compared to a country with minimal impact?

scare tactics
Click to expand...


Our s***show will dwarf Italy’s.

The countries with minimal impact have had early lockdowns.
 
facted said:
I'm sorry, but this has long ceased to be about the economy. The economy is screwed. I get it. I really do. But the only way to solve that issue is to get a handle on the virus. And if you are taking steps to "help the economy" and not focusing solely on the virus, it's unfortunately a mis-step IMO.

And we're not anywhere near over-reacting. Just look at what China did in Wuhan and what Italy did. Do you think they chose to lockdown and destroy their economies? Or do you think they saw they had no choice. Why do you think we're different?

There's also a HUGE reason to flatten the infection curve and it's not too reduce total cases. We need to reduce the influx of patients at one time or we will get decimated like Italy is now and Wuhan was at the beginning.
Click to expand...
Yes I mentioned that about flattening the curve; decreasing the number of ICU cases at one time. We aren't China or other countries. Too much freedom here. Too many simply aren't going to listen to you. Actually almost everybody won't listen to you. Do you see any social distancing at the grocery store? I think it's good so it doesn't spread too slow and drag out its course indefinitely. Is there any proof a high contagious virus with no cure can be eradicated in a very short period by isolation measures? I doubt it.

Also, it's too simplistic dismissing it as yes the economy will suffer but that's not as important as saving lives. This is reality, we never put saving lives as the only important outcome. When you sign the petition to save 30,000+ lives a year with maximum speed limits of 20mph let me know. If you are ready to completely lock the economy down indefinitely with no certain known long term containment benefit, be ready for consequences of wide spread panic and unrest that you aren't considering.
 
Let's talk about Bill Gates for a second, the latest big CEO to step down as of the 13th, among others like the CEO of Disney, Expedia, Gap, McDonalds, Wells Fargo, Boeing, the list goes on and on people.... And right before the (likely) biggest market crash of our time.

But let's jut focus on Bill Gates for a second and the fact that he ran a very coincidental simulation titled Event 201 (youtube it) months before the COVID pandemic, and the fact that he had money tied up in labs reportedly working with COVID-19, that he just bought a yacht that would make Jeff Bezos wet his pants....

Does any of this strike anyone as the slightest bit odd? It seems like all of the elites, or whatever you wanna call them, people who one would expect to be "in the know" are getting ready for something while the rest of us cattle are running around scratching our heads.
 
Mman said:
I understand technical analysis quite well. It seems that you don't get it. I'll go out on a limb and suggest you personally have less than 25 years experience using it. I will also guess that you have no comment on essentially the entirety of academic research at this point discrediting it as anything of useful value for investment.

And any comment on your only 2 posts on SDN being in this thread? Seems an odd thing for an aspiring doctor to choose to post in.
Click to expand...
Not that odd. Majored in economics, national honor society. Thought I wanted to help people. After 3 decades of it Medicine is boring to me. Much more stimulated by giant math and economic puzzles.
 
Wkrdoc said:
call me what you want, but losing 3-4K elderly immunocompromised people is natural selection and has been occurring for 10s of thousands of years.

why bring the country to its knees and potentially alter the lives of our kids?
Click to expand...
Exactly
 
VA Hopeful Dr said:
I have to say I'm enjoying one thing about this outbreak: it's really revealing the deep down character of people like I've never seen before.

I've been on SDN a while now and I can't remember seeing so many different posters all at once do things that make me say "man, there is something wrong with that person".
Click to expand...
Nothing brings out character like a crisis.

I put a ton of people on ignore during the last presidential race. People can say some incredible things when they think they are anonymous.
 
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vector2 said:
My worst fear is obviously the nightmare exponential scenario. My 2nd worst fear is that we successfully implement a curve flattening strategy and really stupid people misinterpret the seriousness of future viral epidemics because "the last one wasn't that bad"
Click to expand...
I just look at the Italian numbers, and their daily growth was 20%. So it doubles every 4 days or so, quadruples every 8 days or so. In a month it should increase by a factor of 4*4*4*4= 256.

That's a factor of 65,536 in 2 months, if it doesn't get under control, mostly through isolation (or herd immunity by then, or weather).
 
Last edited by a moderator:
VA Hopeful Dr said:
I have to say I'm enjoying one thing about this outbreak: it's really revealing the deep down character of people like I've never seen before.

I've been on SDN a while now and I can't remember seeing so many different posters all at once do things that make me say "man, there is something wrong with that person".
Click to expand...
just to be clear, we are talking about @Wkrdoc and @We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes right?
 
zero0 said:
Does any of this strike anyone as the slightest bit odd? It seems like all of the elites, or whatever you wanna call them, people who one would expect to be "in the know" are getting ready for something while the rest of us cattle are running around scratching our heads.
Click to expand...
The only thing those in the know ever really know is the inside information they are privy to. Do not believe the conspiracy theories they have special knowledge of the coming crash (although this cr*p show certainly could crash down hard with these recent events being the trigger, not the cause).
 
FFP said:
I just look at the Italian numbers, and their daily growth was 20%. So it doubles every 4 days or so, quadruples every 8 days or so. In a month it should increase by a factor of 8*8*8*8= 4096.

That's a factor of 16M in 2 months, if it doesn't get under control, mostly through isolation.
Click to expand...

Go watch outbreak and calm down
 
FFP said:
The market will close 7% up, and that's what Trump wanted.

Oh, 9% up. CBS News has a delayed ticker.
Click to expand...
It's sad when even I can predict what he'll do:
www.cnn.com

Trump sends signed chart showing stock market gains to supporters after he declared coronavirus a national emergency

President Donald Trump on Friday sent a note to supporters that included a chart showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average dramatically rising roughly at the time he began a news conference declaring a national emergency over coronavirus. The President signed the chart.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Knowing the right balance is impossible at this point. Meaning, we can't simply look at one side of the equation, lives lost, as the only variable. Stopping the economy to a halt while everyone stays inside has severe consequences, even lives lost that are harder to measure, and the benefits remain a bit unclear. Let's say summer does not significantly kill this virus. That's up for debate as no one knows, and we have no vaccine, so the main known benefit of all the isolation is slowing the need for acute ICU beds. But under those assumptions, in the long run basically everyone stills gets exposed and the virus still runs it's mostly full course.

We can't stay inside forever and enough people, such as healthcare workers, grocery stores etc, are constantly being exposed and keeping the spread going. There's a massive cost for delaying out what may be inevitable anyway. Means of production will be screeching to a halt. The number of Americans living paycheck to paycheck is astronomical. The faith in government is laughable. They couldn't contain LA after Rodney King or New Orleans after Katrina. There's zero chance government and national guard etc can maintain order in a complete economic shutdown. Other ideas like the Fed printing extensive money is also a joke of a bandade. So, don't know the answer of what's the right balance, but at some point overreacting even in the face of a deadly virus can certainly be worse than facing the virus head on. Heck, we in healthcare face it head on every single day, "Here I am virus, come get me."
Click to expand...

This

my biggest worry is this unnecessarily causing an economic collapse. Even if the US were to mimic Italy/China, an economic collapse would kill more and do more damage long term. It’s simply not worth it
 
Wkrdoc said:
call me what you want, but losing 3-4K elderly immunocompromised people is natural selection and has been occurring for 10s of thousands of years.

why bring the country to its knees and potentially alter the lives of our kids?
Click to expand...
3-4k elderly?!

This has the potential to kill a few million Americans and if you don't see that yet, I can't help you. The data is right on front of you.

It's logarithmic spread in every affected country except SKorea basically.
 
facted said:
3-4k elderly?!

This has the potential to kill a few million Americans and if you don't see that yet, I can't help you. The data is right on front of you.

It's logarithmic spread in every affected country except SKorea basically.
Click to expand...

this is absurd. Show me where it killed millions in China, the most populated country on the planet
 
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