The ultimate COVID thread

Started by deleted59964
This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.
Advertisement - Members don't see this ad
I'm just not worried about this risk of dictatorship or totalitarian regime that we've been warned about since Trump's election.

You know who I see most outraged about these pandemic-related movement restrictions? It's not Democrats, who are for the most part on board with the need for social distancing despite its effect on the economy. It's Republicans, and especially it's Trump's base. These people are so wary of the government seizing special powers (and not letting them go) that they're ignoring them, circumventing them, talking about how stupid they are. If they want to sound reasonable, they're wringing their hands about the total global economic collapse this will cause being a pretext for the next Hitler seizing power. If they don't care about sounding reasonable, they put forth crazy conspiracy theories about COVID-19 being a complete hoax.

Again, it's not generally the rank & file Democrats making these arguments. It's the right. It's the people who you'd expect to be supporting their a grab for power coming from "their side" ...

Sure, Democrats have been warning that Orange Hitler was poised to make himself a king since day 1 of his administration. Or maybe day negative 70 or thereabouts, since it started shortly after the election. I've never really been able to sort through their argument that the man is simultaneously a grossly incompetent demented clown whose administration is in constant disarray, with their parallel argument that he's a villainous mastermind who's going to seize permanent power.


The private shooting range I belong to has about 60 members. The place closed down after the state instituted mandatory movement restrictions. You would not believe the mix of concern, anxiety, fear, and outrage over this egregious overreach. These are, for the most part, solid Trump supporters. Or at the very least, if they don't really like Trump, they dislike Democrats much more. Many of these people haaaaate anything the government tells them to do.

100-something counties in the state responded to some real, actual, genuine attempts to infringe their civil rights just months ago by publicly declaring themselves unwilling to accept or enforce the unconstitutional laws the state's (Democrat) leadership tried to foist off on them.

So again - I just don't see who's going to support this Trumpian dictatorship.


And again it bears mentioning ... the food isn't running out. The food isn't going to run out. In the big picture, this virus is almost exclusively affecting old people who aren't part of the workforce. There's no way, no how, that the machinery of civilization, especially food production and distribution, is going to collapse to the point that the population starves.

That food bank had long lines because the people were out of work and had no money, not because there was a food shortage.
Great post. I have a couple of dissensions regarding food. There's something going on regarding supply. When I go to the store and there is just a handful of mushy avocados a few different times there, that's a supply issue. Nobody hoards avocados. When I go to my gas station to get a Ben and Jerry's and the freezer is empty, and he says we haven't seen our vendor since all this started, there's something going on. And there are other examples.

Regarding the people on the food lines related to civil disturbance, I don't think it matters why they are on the food lines. I just think there's only a certain limit before some say I'm not waiting and will go take my food by whatever means.
 
This isn't terribly far off from the Sweden approach which is sick and elderly stay home, work from home if you can, hands washing/distancing, no large gatherings, etc. I think Sweden has been maybe a bit too lax and sloppy with the rules and enforcement, but I think their methods can be tinkered with as needed without destroying the entire approach of keeping life and the economy going as best as you can.
The swedes are getting their asses handed to them and will be in lockdown soon.
Idk if anyones ever met many Scandanavians but they certainly think they know a lot about a lot, so i can see why they think they're immune to this. But they have a very elderly population in comparison to the rest of europe so i think they will get hit real hard once this starts to spread
 
Advertisement - Members don't see this ad
The swedes are getting their asses handed to them and will be in lockdown soon.
Idk if anyones ever met many Scandanavians but they certainly think they know a lot about a lot, so i can see why they think they're immune to this. But they have a very elderly population in comparison to the rest of europe so i think they will get hit real hard once this starts to spread
This shutdown of the economy will go down as the worst decision ever made by government. There is no point. No vaccine is coming along soon enough to matter. Places that seemed to have it under control (South Korea, Singapore) are being hit with new waves as they open up their economy. The economy in shambles, millions jobless, civil unrest sure to follow. And for what? The average age of a coronavirus fatality is close to 80. Many of them were in nursing homes to begin with. And yet when watching the news you would think that schoolchildren are dying by the busload. News flash doctors: old/sick people tend to die. The only way out of this is through this. Herd immunity.
 
This shutdown of the economy will go down as the worst decision ever made by government. There is no point. No vaccine is coming along soon enough to matter. Places that seemed to have it under control (South Korea, Singapore) are being hit with new waves as they open up their economy. The economy in shambles, millions jobless, civil unrest sure to follow. And for what? The average age of a coronavirus fatality is close to 80. Many of them were in nursing homes to begin with. And yet when watching the news you would think that schoolchildren are dying by the busload. News flash doctors: old/sick people tend to die. The only way out of this is through this. Herd immunity.

I think Trump and the govt. officials had to make an attempt to flatten the curve and give the hospitals time to adjust to Covid 19. The lack of PPE and Ventilators are the main reasons I supported the shutdown. The risk to healthcare providers is simply too great without PPE. I am hopeful that millions of N95 masks will be available by the time we partially reopen the USA for business in May.

The shutdown also gave us time to look at HCQ/Zpack, Remdesevir and IL6 inhibitors. I am hopeful that data over the next 3-4 weeks will show some effectiveness when started early. The data from Biotech/Pharm companies show that many of the proposed future treatments for Covid 19 work best when initiated early on in the hospitalization process (not in the ICU stage).

I do think the economic cost from the shutdown is staggering which is why I support re-opening the USA for business in May. I also suspect the real mortality rate from Covid 19 is in the 0.5% range; there are so many people with mild cases that have never been tested. We should have that data as well over the next 4 weeks as studies are underway to determine the real number of infected people in the USA (likely 3X the posted case numbers).

 
This shutdown of the economy will go down as the worst decision ever made by government. There is no point. No vaccine is coming along soon enough to matter. Places that seemed to have it under control (South Korea, Singapore) are being hit with new waves as they open up their economy. The economy in shambles, millions jobless, civil unrest sure to follow. And for what? The average age of a coronavirus fatality is close to 80. Many of them were in nursing homes to begin with. And yet when watching the news you would think that schoolchildren are dying by the busload. News flash doctors: old/sick people tend to die. The only way out of this is through this. Herd immunity.
No way. I very much disagree. We had to shut down until we saw the virulence.



If 10to 50 year olds were dying left right and centre then this would be a slaughter. We did not know that. China data is so unreliable to the point of falsified

Now we've seen that it's mostly 65to 90 year olds the business mans head says open up.

Plus who had this shutdown harmed economically? Certainly none of us relatively speaking or long term speaking. The rich just keep getting richer
 
Great post. I have a couple of dissensions regarding food. There's something going on regarding supply. When I go to the store and there is just a handful of mushy avocados a few different times there, that's a supply issue. Nobody hoards avocados. When I go to my gas station to get a Ben and Jerry's and the freezer is empty, and he says we haven't seen our vendor since all this started, there's something going on. And there are other examples.

Regarding the people on the food lines related to civil disturbance, I don't think it matters why they are on the food lines. I just think there's only a certain limit before some say I'm not waiting and will go take my food by whatever means.
Avocados are probably the best example a person could come up with with an expensive, unnecessary, ultra-luxury food item. Maybe raspberries flown in from Chile outrank them on that scale. No one is going to starve if the avocado selection is mushy.

The people in those lines at food banks are not animals, criminals, or lazy shifty-eyed savages. They're not going to riot and steal and get violent because the line is longer than usual. Food banks have been stressed but have been able to meet the demand.

The government is giving out checks to every low- and middle-income person in the country. The record number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits are going to get ... wait for it ... unemployment benefits.

There's no food crisis. There isn't going to be a food crisis. The obesity epidemic will continue. I love avocados, buy them often. The nature of an avocado, that sweet ambrosia of the gods, beloved by both toast-craving hippies and clean members of society, is that 40% of the time the ones at the supermarket are concrete orbs that could chip teeth, and 30% of the time they're mushy and gross.

In normal times, 40% of retail produce is thrown away because it sits on the shelf long enough to rot or simply look unappealing. There is MASSIVE depth to the staple food supply in this country. Even now we're still dumping milk down the drain for economic reasons. We ship absolutely gigantic amounts of food overseas, continuously.

We grow a gazillion bushels of corn and then squeeze it into our gas tanks, as part of an effort to reduce our dependence on foreign oil ... which is now $20/barrel.

The boogaloo is going to have to kick off over something else.
 
Utawa5W.png




I believe that this is a condition placed on the CMS stimulus checks sent to groups as well. I know it was with our group, but only applies to Medicare patients. We are trying to figure out how to flag covid patients in our billing system and wondering if PUIs are included.
 
Advertisement - Members don't see this ad
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee announced a regional partnership that will see the three states work together to contain Covid-19 and reopen the West Coast economy. Each state will still develop its own plan, but all three governors agreed to prioritize certain principles, including placing health first and using science to inform policy.

“COVID-19 doesn’t follow state or national boundaries. It will take every level of government, working together, and a full picture of what’s happening on the ground,” the governors said in a statement. “In the coming weeks, the West Coast will flip the script on COVID-19 – with our states acting in close coordination and collaboration to ensure the virus can never spread wildly in our communities.”
 
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee announced a regional partnership that will see the three states work together to contain Covid-19 and reopen the West Coast economy. Each state will still develop its own plan, but all three governors agreed to prioritize certain principles, including placing health first and using science to inform policy.

“COVID-19 doesn’t follow state or national boundaries. It will take every level of government, working together, and a full picture of what’s happening on the ground,” the governors said in a statement. “In the coming weeks, the West Coast will flip the script on COVID-19 – with our states acting in close coordination and collaboration to ensure the virus can never spread wildly in our communities.”

Yep East Coast is also doing something similar.
Governors of NJ, NY, PA, CT, DE, RI and MA have started a covid-19 regional advisory council to get people back to work and restore the economy.
At least there are some adult leaders with sense still in this country!
 
Yep East Coast is also doing something similar.
Governors of NJ, NY, PA, CT, DE, RI and MA have started a covid-19 regional advisory council to get people back to work and restore the economy.
At least there are some adult leaders with sense still in this country!
I would love if we had any adults in our media that were interested in disseminating news related to the medical and economic catastrophe instead of constantly trying to show their political bias in every question.

Dr Fauci was asked a hypothetical question by CNN, I believe, if the President began mitigation earlier would there be less death. This became the number one media talking point. Left out of all of that is Dr Fauci himself never advocated mitigation earlier and that the President took his advice at each crucial step.

Dr Fauci got up to the podium today to clarify all of this and a media question he got was, are you saying this voluntarily? The look of disdain on his face and in his answer expresses how so many feel about the media. They as a group are just trash, a national embarrassment. No objective news, just biased hatred, even in a time of national crisis.

 
Last edited:
Dr Fauci got up to the podium today to clarify all of this and a media question he got was, are you saying this voluntarily? The look of disdain on his face and in his answer expresses how so many feel about the media. They are as a group just trash, just a national embarrassment. No objective news, just biased hatred, even in a time of national crisis.
"Biased hatred" may describe your last paragraph, too.

Trust me, there is no democracy without a free press. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

The media is far from perfect, but it is the last bastion of checks and balances in this country, with Congress and courts having been already castrated. Every government needs an opposition, because somebody has to watch the watchers.
 
This is what an uncontrolled reopening of the economy would do:
Uncontrolled reopening would be as foolish as heavily extended complete shutdown. "Reopeners" are not pushing for a complete reversal to 2019.
 
This is what an uncontrolled reopening of the economy would do:
It’s a ****ty situation. People will die. Tanking the economy is also a disaster. There will be bodies left on the street from the civil unrest that will follow. Or we will get ourselves a dictatorship. Or rampant inflation as the government tries to manufacture money.
 
Advertisement - Members don't see this ad
"Biased hatred" may describe your last paragraph, too.

Trust me, there is no democracy without a free press. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

The media is far from perfect, but it is the last bastion of checks and balances in this country, with Congress and courts having been already castrated. Every government needs an opposition, because somebody has to watch the watchers.

Yes I certainly have my problems with cable news like CNN and Fox. But in general I have mad respect for journalism, which I never appreciated as much before this administration. It does seem that they are the only checks and balances we have left. At least much of the corruption that's been happening has at least been given the light of day instead remained buried. Thank you journalists.
 
Yes I certainly have my problems with cable news like CNN and Fox. But in general I have mad respect for journalism, which I never appreciated as much before this administration. It does seem that they are the only checks and balances we have left. At least much of the corruption that's been happening has at least been given the light of day instead remained buried. Thank you journalists.
I remember that moment when Anderson Cooper became a star on CNN, as senator Landrieu of Louisiana was lying through her teeth and doing PR, like YouKnowWho, and Cooper was like a rottweiler, just fact-checking her. Now THAT was free press in action, not the joke they call press conference nowadays in the WH.




It's downright sad when people behave like some dumb lambs, and let this administration get away with rewriting history. The WH believes that any lie repeated persistently will become an alternative "fact". The idea probably comes from advertising, and the unending lies about food, tobacco etc. People who believe that healthy food can come from a factory will believe anything.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Avocados are probably the best example a person could come up with with an expensive, unnecessary, ultra-luxury food item. Maybe raspberries flown in from Chile outrank them on that scale. No one is going to starve if the avocado selection is mushy.

The people in those lines at food banks are not animals, criminals, or lazy shifty-eyed savages. They're not going to riot and steal and get violent because the line is longer than usual. Food banks have been stressed but have been able to meet the demand.

The government is giving out checks to every low- and middle-income person in the country. The record number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits are going to get ... wait for it ... unemployment benefits.

There's no food crisis. There isn't going to be a food crisis. The obesity epidemic will continue. I love avocados, buy them often. The nature of an avocado, that sweet ambrosia of the gods, beloved by both toast-craving hippies and clean members of society, is that 40% of the time the ones at the supermarket are concrete orbs that could chip teeth, and 30% of the time they're mushy and gross.

In normal times, 40% of retail produce is thrown away because it sits on the shelf long enough to rot or simply look unappealing. There is MASSIVE depth to the staple food supply in this country. Even now we're still dumping milk down the drain for economic reasons. We ship absolutely gigantic amounts of food overseas, continuously.

We grow a gazillion bushels of corn and then squeeze it into our gas tanks, as part of an effort to reduce our dependence on foreign oil ... which is now $20/barrel.

The boogaloo is going to have to kick off over something else.
I admittedly don't know all of the finer nuances of avocados, but you didn't address the crucial Ben and Jerry's supply issue at my Chevron. If I can't get a late night Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough pint, to me that's a reliable sign of pending unrest!
 
I admittedly don't know all of the finer nuances of avocados, but you didn't address the crucial Ben and Jerry's supply issue at my Chevron. If I can't get a late night Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough pint, to me that's a reliable sign of pending unrest!
raw
 
I consider it objective hatred based on years of observation 🙂

Man, wouldn't that be wonderful if we had a free press?

Tell me, what's the trumpist propaganda line that you guys use to explain having a WH press secretary who never gave one press conference in her entire tenure?



aqWACLK.png


 
Tell me, what's the trumpist propaganda line that you guys use to explain having a WH press secretary who never gave one press conference in her entire tenure?



aqWACLK.png


You guys? Barking up the wrong tree here. I'm furious at Trump for digging the financial hole deeper... just like Obama... just like Bush... kicking the can down to the next shmuck. Just because I'm not a fool backing the future Venezuela States of America doesn't mean I love Trump. He just simply is a much better option.
 
Advertisement - Members don't see this ad
The shutdown is giving us the time we need to ramp up testing for the virus and the antibody as well. Look at this graph and then extrapolate 4 weeks for when we reopen for business:

Hopefully. I’m not convinced that their is yet the resources in place for RNA or antibody testing, nor contact tracing.
 
Lol, you ever wake up and think holy sht that guy from home alone 2 and the apprentice is president




TRUMP CLAIMS HE CAN OVERRIDE GOVERNORS' STAY-AT-HOME ORDERS WITH PRESIDENT'S 'TOTAL' AUTHORITY

I suppose he could try to withhold federal aid from states that don’t reopen like he wants. Wouldn’t surprise me.
 
Lol, you ever wake up and think holy sht that guy from home alone 2 and the apprentice is president




TRUMP CLAIMS HE CAN OVERRIDE GOVERNORS' STAY-AT-HOME ORDERS WITH PRESIDENT'S 'TOTAL' AUTHORITY

Let's give credit where credit is due. That's Paula Reid from CBS News, which I watch regularly. She's good, and highly-educated.

Per PBS, "Reid joined CBS News in 2010. She graduated from the College of William & Mary in 2005 where she double majored in psychology and English. Reid earned her JD from Villanova University School Law and went on to pass Bar Exams for both New Jersey and Pennsylvania. In 2016, Reid also completed a Masters in Bioethics (MBE) from the University of Pennsylvania."
 
Dr Fauci was asked a hypothetical question by CNN, I believe, if the President began mitigation earlier would there be less death. This became the number one media talking point. Left out of all of that is Dr Fauci himself never advocated mitigation earlier and that the President took his advice at each crucial step.

Fauci admitted they pushed for earlier mitigation from a pure health standpoint but that is often not the only consideration and not all recommendations are followed.
 
Fauci admitted they pushed for earlier mitigation from a pure health standpoint but that is often not the only consideration and not all recommendations are followed.
Fauci gave a hint of how he survived in his job for decades.
 
stocks have been going up at crazy speed. expecting a huge overshoot due to emotions, before falling a bit and leveling out. question is how high is it going to shoot. not unlikely to shoot beyond previous highs as everyone tries to take advantage of this 'sale'
 
stocks have been going up at crazy speed. expecting a huge overshoot due to emotions, before falling a bit and leveling out. question is how high is it going to shoot. not unlikely to shoot beyond previous highs as everyone tries to take advantage of this 'sale'
Maybe another 5% up from here before settling back down when the earnings come in. Look at JPM stock today. That stock was $100 now it will likely fall back to the high 80's.

Earnings will push the market back down to the 2600 range as the numbers will be terrible.
 
Mnuchin has a BS in Economics from Yale. There may be others (I didn't check).

But I get your point: they are all Wall Street or WH creatures, not experts in macroeconomics.
And how did Mnuchin get filthy rich? It sure wasn’t from that BS in econ. Everyone pretty much knows his wealth was accumulated thru illegal means. BTW, Ivanka also has a BS in econ. Her biggest accomplishments include working for The Apprentice and the Miss Teen USA pageant. And this dude Mark Meadows doesn’t even have a college education and believes climate change is a lie. If you do more research into the others there, believe it or not it gets even more laughable.
 
In case any of you are interested Fair Market Value for the S and P 500 is in the 2550 range. We are currently at 2800. So, the market is over-valued or ahead of itself by 6 months or more.

When the earnings start coming in this week that may put pressure on the S and P 500 or not. Traders see so much Fed stimulus money that they may ignore the earnings.

I do think the S and P 500 is over 3,000 (10% higher from here) in 12 months.
 
Advertisement - Members don't see this ad
In case any of you are interested Fair Market Value for the S and P 500 is in the 2550 range. We are currently at 2800. So, the market is over-valued or ahead of itself by 6 months or more.

It is hard enough to determine a fair market value for a single company, let alone aggregate the data from over 500 companies. The margin of error on any claim of the fair market value of the entire market is so large as to render it unusable.
 
In case any of you are interested Fair Market Value for the S and P 500 is in the 2550 range. We are currently at 2800. So, the market is over-valued or ahead of itself by 6 months or more.

When the earnings start coming in this week that may put pressure on the S and P 500 or not. Traders see so much Fed stimulus money that they may ignore the earnings.

I do think the S and P 500 is over 3,000 (10% higher from here) in 12 months.

how does one estimate the FMV of the S&P 500?
 
It is hard enough to determine a fair market value for a single company, let alone aggregate the data from over 500 companies. The margin of error on any claim of the fair market value of the entire market is so large as to render it unusable.

All estimates or predictions are just guesses. Leon Cooperman, Billionaire, said on CNBC that projected earning of the S and P 500 were about 150-160 with a P/E multiple of 17-18 (because of QE, zero percent interst rates, trillions of stimulus) so he came up with 2550.


 
Maybe another 5% up from here before settling back down when the earnings come in. Look at JPM stock today. That stock was $100 now it will likely fall back to the high 80's.

Earnings will push the market back down to the 2600 range as the numbers will be terrible.
It's very difficult to make market predictions off of usual parameters because the background conditions are more distorted than ever. Never had so much government borrowing and Fed spending been thrown at the economy. I've heard numbers as high as 10 trillion dollars. It's part of the No Investor Left Behind policy. In real terms I feel the market would be significantly down. In nominal terms, hell I have no idea. I mean at some point the Fed could potentially make everybody a millionaire.
 
It's very difficult to make market predictions off of usual parameters because the background conditions are more distorted than ever. Never had so much government borrowing and Fed spending been thrown at the economy. I've heard numbers as high as 10 trillion dollars. It's part of the No Investor Left Behind policy. In real terms I feel the market would be significantly down. In nominal terms, hell I have no idea. I mean at some point the Fed could potentially make everybody a millionaire.

$10T total of monopoly money being injected into the economy to save us?! wtf. we, our children and our children's children are screwed. I'd rather take my chances with the virus.
 
It's very difficult to make market predictions off of usual parameters because the background conditions are more distorted than ever. Never had so much government borrowing and Fed spending been thrown at the economy. I've heard numbers as high as 10 trillion dollars. It's part of the No Investor Left Behind policy. In real terms I feel the market would be significantly down. In nominal terms, hell I have no idea. I mean at some point the Fed could potentially make everybody a millionaire.

 
Advertisement - Members don't see this ad