The ultimate COVID thread

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Wrong. Individual stimulus checks exist for the main reason of electoral advertising to the poor and uneducated. Panem et circuses, signed Donald J Trump (aka their "godfather"). And the fact that no institution (e.g. the FEC) questions this suggests a huge rot in our democracy.


I mean unemployment checks, not stimulus
 
All the fed can do is print money that winds up in financial assets.

This Congress has a choice but prefers to give the money to big and small businesses ostensibly so that they can keep their employees.

Personally, I would like to see the corporations not bailed out. Have lots of organized bankruptcies like the auto companies. Wipe out the stock holders and convert the debt to equity.

Give money directly to the bottom 90% or so of citizens in the form of a monthly stipend till the crisis passes.


Agree. UBI trickle up economics.
 
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“But Bob Kocher, a partner at Venrock focused on healthcare investments, said that private equity funds that took out a lot of debt are going to feel pressure to cut costs, and may try to sell practices back to doctors at a loss.“

Envision apparenly trying to get the docs to train APPs to do procedures. Desperate at this point I guess.
 
The only body able to address this pandemic in a coherent way is the government. That’s who took charge and didn’t bungle it in South Korea, HK, Singapore. Private industry cannot handle this problem. What is your alternative proposal? Sign over governing authority to Bill Gates?

I never suggested this is a private industry problem. The fact some bureaucrat was able to turn down testing we didn’t have and likely could’ve benefitted from is a problem. WaPo released a story this morning about US State Dept officials predicting there were several issues with the viral lab in Wuhan that could lead to this very scenario in 2018. We have no jurisdiction in China, but this seems to have been lost in the fray somewhere. Let’s not forget the lack of any sort of cohesive virus management after SARS or the depletion of the national stockpile. Before this is all said and done, I imagine we’ll have a dozen similar stories about how the government dropped the ball somewhere else.
 
I never suggested this is a private industry problem. The fact some bureaucrat was able to turn down testing we didn’t have and likely could’ve benefitted from is a problem. WaPo released a story this morning about US State Dept officials predicting there were several issues with the viral lab in Wuhan that could lead to this very scenario in 2018. We have no jurisdiction in China, but this seems to have been lost in the fray somewhere. Let’s not forget the lack of any sort of cohesive virus management after SARS or the depletion of the national stockpile. Before this is all said and done, I imagine we’ll have a dozen similar stories about how the government dropped the ball somewhere else.

True and all governments have made mistakes. But as we’ve seen in other countries, not all governments have to be as incompetent as ours. IMO we got what we deserve and COVID-19 made it crystal clear.
 
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Not entirely accurate and missing significant details re: WHO timeline. I saw someone post a detailed timeline of events on a reddit thread () and I'm sharing much of it here:

31 Dec 2019

China reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

1 January 2020

WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

4 January 2020

WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province.

5 January 2020

WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

10 January 2020

WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries.

Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers.

12 January 2020

China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19.

13 January 2020

Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.

14 January 2020

WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens.

20-21 January 2020

WHO experts from its China and Western Pacific regional offices conducted a brief field visit to Wuhan.

22 January 2020

WHO mission to China issued a statement saying that there was evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan but more investigation was needed to understand the full extent of transmission.

22- 23 January 2020

The WHO Director- General convened an Emergency Committee (EC) under the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) to assess whether the outbreak constituted a public health emergency of international concern. The independent members from around the world could not reach a consensus based on the evidence available at the time. They asked to be reconvened within 10 days after receiving more information.

28 January 2020

A senior WHO delegation led by the Director-General travelled to Beijing to meet China’s leadership, learn more about China’s response, and to offer any technical assistance.

While in Beijing, Dr. Tedros agreed with Chinese government leaders that an international team of leading scientists would travel to China on a mission to better understand the context, the overall response, and exchange information and experience.

30 January 2020

The WHO Director-General reconvened the Emergency Committee (EC). This was earlier than the 10-day period and only two days after the first reports of limited human-to-human transmission were reported outside China. This time, the EC reached consensus and advised the Director-General that the outbreak constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The Director-General accepted the recommendation and declared the novel coronavirus outbreak (2019-nCoV) a PHEIC. This is the 6th time WHO has declared a PHEIC since the International Health Regulations (IHR) came into force in 2005.

3 February 2020

WHO releases the international community's Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan to help protect states with weaker health systems.

11-12 February 2020

WHO convened a Research and Innovation Forum on COVID-19, attended by more than 400 experts and funders from around the world, which included presentations by George Gao, Director General of China CDC, and Zunyou Wu, China CDC's chief epidemiologist.

16-24 February 2020

The WHO-China Joint mission, which included experts from Canada, Germany, Japan, Nigeria, Republic of Korea, Russia, Singapore and the US (CDC, NIH) spent time in Beijing and also travelled to Wuhan and two other cities. They spoke with health officials, scientists and health workers in health facilities (maintaining physical distancing). The report of the joint mission can be found here: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Additional key points:
-The Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan the WHO released on Feb 3 stated the following:
"National public health emergency management mechanisms should be activated with engagement of relevant ministries such as health, education, travel and tourism, public works, environment, social protection, and agriculture, to provide coordinated management of COVID-19 preparedness and response."

The US declared a state of emergency on March 12.

-On Feb 25, WHO released its Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019. On that date, the US had 53 COVID cases and none of the following recommendations were carried out by the US.

For countries with imported cases and/or outbreaks of COVID-19

  1. Immediately activate the highest level of national Response Management protocols to ensure the all-of-government and all-of-society approach needed to contain COVID-19 with non-pharmaceutical public health measures;
  2. Prioritize active, exhaustive case finding and immediate testing and isolation, painstaking contact tracing and rigorous quarantine of close contacts;
  3. Fully educate the general public on the seriousness of COVID-19 and their role in preventing its spread;
  4. Immediately expand surveillance to detect COVID-19 transmission chains, by testing all patients with atypical pneumonias, conducting screening in some patients with upper respiratory illnesses and/or recent COVID-19 exposure, and adding testing for the COVID-19 virus to existing surveillance systems (e.g. systems for influenza-like-illness and SARI); and
  5. Conduct multi-sector scenario planning and simulations for the deployment of even more stringent measures to interrupt transmission chains as needed (e.g. the suspension of large-scale gatherings and the closure of schools and workplaces).
For uninfected countries

  1. Prepare to immediately activate the highest level of emergency response mechanisms to trigger the all-of-government and all-of society approach that is essential for early containment of a COVID-19 outbreak;
  2. Rapidly test national preparedness plans in light of new knowledge on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures against COVID-19; incorporate rapid detection, large scale case isolation and respiratory support capacities, and rigorous
  3. contact tracing and management in national COVID-19 readiness and response plans and capacities;
  4. Immediately enhance surveillance for COVID-19 as rapid detection is crucial to containing spread; consider testing all patients with atypical pneumonia for the COVID-19 virus, and adding testing for the virus to existing influenza surveillance systems;
  5. Begin now to enforce rigorous application of infection prevention and control measures in all healthcare facilities, especially in emergency departments and outpatient clinics, as this is where COVID-19 will enter the health system; and
  6. Rapidly assess the general population’s understanding of COVID-19, adjust national health promotion materials and activities accordingly, and engage clinical champions to communicate with the media.
So according to the above, it seems like the WHO did make quite a few recommendations in response to a quickly escalating crisis throughout a substantial time frame and the countries that actually followed them performed well. Meanwhile, should we count number of days during January-March our President spent at the golf course or holding rallies?


That timeline conveniently leaves out the January 14th and 15th tweets parroting the “no human transmission” line. Yesterday it was reported that a physician within the WHO suspected transmission in late December or early January after examining a cluster of pneumonia cases, but that’s a far cry from the public face. The next week Tedros visited Beijing and had nothing but praises for China’s response. Forget about Trump for a minute and just realize this is a pretty epic fail.
 
That timeline conveniently leaves out the January 14th and 15th tweets parroting the “no human transmission” line. Yesterday it was reported that a physician within the WHO suspected transmission in late December or early January after examining a cluster of pneumonia cases, but that’s a far cry from the public face. The next week Tedros visited Beijing and had nothing but praises for China’s response. Forget about Trump for a minute and just realize this is a pretty epic fail.

You're right pretty epic fail. However even after we knew it was human to human, after we saw what was happening in Italy, we still did NOTHING. That's far worse than anything WHO did or didn't do.
 
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Over a million tests have been distributed," Pence said, and "before the end of this week, another 4 million tests will be distributed.".


That was March 6th. It’s now 5 weeks later and we’ve barely cracked 3 million tests. Who should I blame? Bush, Obama, China, WHO, governors, mayors, media, Facebook, golden doodles, avocado toast?
 

Over a million tests have been distributed," Pence said, and "before the end of this week, another 4 million tests will be distributed.".


That was March 6th. It’s now 5 weeks later and we’ve barely cracked 3 million tests. Who should I blame? Bush, Obama, China, WHO, governors, mayors, media, Facebook, golden doodles, avocado toast?
Don't you dare bring avocado toast into this.
 
That timeline conveniently leaves out the January 14th and 15th tweets parroting the “no human transmission” line. Yesterday it was reported that a physician within the WHO suspected transmission in late December or early January after examining a cluster of pneumonia cases, but that’s a far cry from the public face. The next week Tedros visited Beijing and had nothing but praises for China’s response. Forget about Trump for a minute and just realize this is a pretty epic fail.

The WHO did f*ck up, but is defunding the organization an appropriate response? It would seem more appropriate to figure how and why mistakes were made instead of removing funding. Like it or not, pandemic risks require global coordination of all governments. The WHO probably needs more funding, not less.
 
That timeline conveniently leaves out the January 14th and 15th tweets parroting the “no human transmission” line. Yesterday it was reported that a physician within the WHO suspected transmission in late December or early January after examining a cluster of pneumonia cases, but that’s a far cry from the public face. The next week Tedros visited Beijing and had nothing but praises for China’s response. Forget about Trump for a minute and just realize this is a pretty epic fail.
This is the problem when you have a lazy uneducated populace that relies on being spoon-fed information and knowledge by dumb uneducated media sources like Fox News. Just sit back for a moment and read what you just wrote. Of everything that's been presented, you're fixated on a single tweet. And the only reason that tweet got any attention was bc, in March, Trump supporters were desperate to find any means of distracting from Trump's nonstop failures. Fox News got ahold of it and presented it in a misleading fashion. Do you realize tweets have character limits? Lol. If ppl actually read the WHO reports and listened to their press conferences they literally gave that same week in Jan, they'd know they never claimed that there was no human to human transmission. In fact, the WHO always stated explicitly that it was possible, but that there was not enough evidence for them to make a definitive statement at that time. Unfortunately this is too long for a tweet and for idiots on social media to pay attention to w/o getting distracted. In many news articles from Jan 14, the accurate WHO statements were clearly reported and, in fact, it was reported that the WHO believed human to human transmission was "likely" but that they needed more evidence prior to making a definitive statement based on preliminary info. On Jan 23, the WHO stated that they definitively knew that there is human to human transmission in China and, while no evidence of it yet outside of China, that it is possible to happen. They also stated that China is in a state of emergency and, while not an emergency globally, that the risk of outbreak globally is high.

But, for sake of argument, let's say the WHO did have, as you say, an "epic fail" and misled the world. The WHO doesn't run the US or any country. Do you not understand that we had the same damn info as countries like S. Korea, at the same damn time? We diagnosed our first case on the same day as S. Korea. To date, S Korea has around 200 deaths and the US has 31,000 deaths and counting.

Also, are you not aware the US has the most massive, expansive intelligence agency/community in the history of the world? It literally exists to constantly, around the clock, look out for threats of every nature and of every level. So you're telling me that it got duped by a single tweet? Lol. Wake up dude. There's plenty of evidence suggesting the US were aware of a possible pandemic in November 2019 and maybe even earlier.

And let's not forget we had a pandemic response team literally situated inside China so that we would not have to rely on China, WHO, or anyone. So that we could evaluate threats and situations for ourselves. Guess what? Trump fired this team.

And, on the topic of tweets, how about this one. Trump tweeted "This is no worse than the flu!". On March 9th.
 
This is the problem when you have a lazy uneducated populace that relies on being spoon-fed information and knowledge by dumb uneducated media sources like Fox News. Just sit back for a moment and read what you just wrote. Of everything that's been presented, you're fixated on a single tweet. And the only reason that tweet got any attention was bc, in March, Trump supporters were desperate to find any means of distracting from Trump's nonstop failures. Fox News got ahold of it and presented it in a misleading fashion. Do you realize tweets have character limits? Lol. If ppl actually read the WHO reports and listened to their press conferences they literally gave that same week in Jan, they'd know they never claimed that there was no human to human transmission. In fact, the WHO always stated explicitly that it was possible, but that there was not enough evidence for them to make a definitive statement at that time. Unfortunately this is too long for a tweet and for idiots on social media to pay attention to w/o getting distracted. In many news articles from Jan 14, the accurate WHO statements were clearly reported and, in fact, it was reported that the WHO believed human to human transmission was "likely" but that they needed more evidence prior to making a definitive statement based on preliminary info. On Jan 23, the WHO stated that they definitively knew that there is human to human transmission in China and, while no evidence of it yet outside of China, that it is possible to happen. They also stated that China is in a state of emergency and, while not an emergency globally, that the risk of outbreak globally is high.

But, for sake of argument, let's say the WHO did have, as you say, an "epic fail" and misled the world. The WHO doesn't run the US or any country. Do you not understand that we had the same damn info as countries like S. Korea, at the same damn time? We diagnosed our first case on the same day as S. Korea. To date, S Korea has around 200 deaths and the US has 31,000 deaths and counting.

Also, are you not aware the US has the most massive, expansive intelligence agency/community in the history of the world? It literally exists to constantly, around the clock, look out for threats of every nature and of every level. So you're telling me that it got duped by a single tweet? Lol. Wake up dude. There's plenty of evidence suggesting the US were aware of a possible pandemic in November 2019 and maybe even earlier.

And let's not forget we had a pandemic response team literally situated inside China so that we would not have to rely on China, WHO, or anyone. So that we could evaluate threats and situations for ourselves. Guess what? Trump fired this team.

And, on the topic of tweets, how about this one. Trump tweeted "This is no worse than the flu!". On March 9th.

HmJwJYsKSAIjS.gif
 
This is the problem when you have a lazy uneducated populace that relies on being spoon-fed information and knowledge by dumb uneducated media sources like Fox News. Just sit back for a moment and read what you just wrote. Of everything that's been presented, you're fixated on a single tweet. And the only reason that tweet got any attention was bc, in March, Trump supporters were desperate to find any means of distracting from Trump's nonstop failures. Fox News got ahold of it and presented it in a misleading fashion. Do you realize tweets have character limits? Lol. If ppl actually read the WHO reports and listened to their press conferences they literally gave that same week in Jan, they'd know they never claimed that there was no human to human transmission. In fact, the WHO always stated explicitly that it was possible, but that there was not enough evidence for them to make a definitive statement at that time. Unfortunately this is too long for a tweet and for idiots on social media to pay attention to w/o getting distracted. In many news articles from Jan 14, the accurate WHO statements were clearly reported and, in fact, it was reported that the WHO believed human to human transmission was "likely" but that they needed more evidence prior to making a definitive statement based on preliminary info. On Jan 23, the WHO stated that they definitively knew that there is human to human transmission in China and, while no evidence of it yet outside of China, that it is possible to happen. They also stated that China is in a state of emergency and, while not an emergency globally, that the risk of outbreak globally is high.

But, for sake of argument, let's say the WHO did have, as you say, an "epic fail" and misled the world. The WHO doesn't run the US or any country. Do you not understand that we had the same damn info as countries like S. Korea, at the same damn time? We diagnosed our first case on the same day as S. Korea. To date, S Korea has around 200 deaths and the US has 31,000 deaths and counting.

Also, are you not aware the US has the most massive, expansive intelligence agency/community in the history of the world? It literally exists to constantly, around the clock, look out for threats of every nature and of every level. So you're telling me that it got duped by a single tweet? Lol. Wake up dude. There's plenty of evidence suggesting the US were aware of a possible pandemic in November 2019 and maybe even earlier.

And let's not forget we had a pandemic response team literally situated inside China so that we would not have to rely on China, WHO, or anyone. So that we could evaluate threats and situations for ourselves. Guess what? Trump fired this team.

And, on the topic of tweets, how about this one. Trump tweeted "This is no worse than the flu!". On March 9th.
Had we shut down just 2 weeks earlier, we could have avoided 54,000 American deaths, according to this estimate.

 
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True and all governments have made mistakes. But as we’ve seen in other countries, not all governments have to be as incompetent as ours. IMO we got what we deserve and COVID-19 made it crystal clear.

I know this is a fluff piece from cnn, but what a novel concept...government can run successfully without the leader being a white guy!
Maybe the US will give it another shot one of these days.

 
It’s back up over 100. But they seem no worse than other countries. I’m watching with interest to see how things play out there.

One thing I don’t understand is how you can let Covid run it’s course and still protect the sick and the elderly. We’ve seen how it ravages nursing homes. How and where do you protect them? Or do we just sacrifice them (and the occasional 35yo) for the “greater good”? It seems like an impossible task.
Same here. I watch their stats closely, kinda replaces my numbers addiction where I'd be combing through NBA statistics this time of year. The death numbers have been recalibrated, up a good bit to about 50 per day recently, which is still a good drop from where it was recently before that.

In protecting the comorbid and elderly I was referring more to their recommendation that they stay home and isolate, not partaking in the public freedoms others have. As far as nursing homes, man that's tough. They are hard to protect anywhere right now.

#teamsweden
 
I know this is a fluff piece from cnn, but what a novel concept...government can run successfully without the leader being a white guy!
Maybe the US will give it another shot one of these days.

It makes perfect sense. We all listen to our (grand)mothers.

Who would disappoint her, for example?




Approximate quote (3:05): "You [who don't keep social distancing] should be ashamed. It's reckless. And, first and foremost, it's inconsiderate behavior". Yes, grandma!
 
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well sure, but you implied that you knew something the market didn't by saying that Q2 and Q3 estimates were not being considered. You don't. I don't. The market is mostly efficient most of the time. The only advantage we have as individual small investors is we can choose to invest on a different timeline than the schizo short term craziness that the big players are forced to deal with.
Yes, the market looks forward, but with the caveat that even with accurate earnings and revenue projections momentum can carry stock prices well above or well below where you'd expect it to be based on those accurate estimates.
 
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After the finance guys with their physician and CRNA "consultants" have tried and failed... Have doctors write a big check in this environment...
:roflcopter:

I wrote this five years ago. Never thought #3 would come back.

Does Apollo have any anesthesia contracts left? They lost I think every anesthesia contract I remember them having.
 
All the fed can do is print money that winds up in financial assets.

This Congress has a choice but prefers to give the money to big and small businesses ostensibly so that they can keep their employees.

Personally, I would like to see the corporations not bailed out. Have lots of organized bankruptcies like the auto companies. Wipe out the stock holders and convert the debt to equity.

Give money directly to the bottom 90% or so of citizens in the form of a monthly stipend till the crisis passes.
Agree. There is supposed to be risk when you buy stocks and bonds and run a business of any size. Constantly bailing out losers and only accepting winners just pushes a larger amount of pain to be had later.
#mathematicalsmokeandmirrors
 
This guy is a nutball that drank the Bernanke Fed Koolaide that believes the Fed's money printing is the answer to all that ails the economy. When asked, "Would you describe the response by the Fed (to Covid 19) as flooding the system with money?" he responded, "Yes... and there is no limit to our ability to do that." That sent chills up my spine like a Steven King movie.
 
Yes, the market looks forward, but with the caveat that even with accurate earnings and revenue projections momentum can carry stock prices well above or well below where you'd expect it to be based on those accurate estimates.

I file that under short term voting machine, long term weighing machine. None of us should be in the business of caring about what the stock market does in the short term.
 
And they will not just bounce back, once we reopen the economy. Many of these people will stay unemployed.

there are people in firm near by that chose to be let go, bc the paychecks are higher to be unemployed.

anyway, the main difference is that these unemployed people are heavily supported by the government, in many forms, and possibly more to come
 
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while that is true, it is not surprising. We have forcibly kept people from working and spending money for weeks now. Short term unemployment is what happens when you do that. Fortunately this is not going to be a decade long depression.
That depends on the virus.
 
That depends on the virus.

Well even if it destroys everything in it's path across all of humanity the process will not take 10 years. People will either be dead, recovered, or immunized (and effective treatments) long before that time.
 
there are people in firm near by that chose to be let go, bc the paychecks are higher to be unemployed.

anyway, the main difference is that these unemployed people are heavily supported by the government, in many forms, and possibly more to come

Imo this says more about (the lack of real) wage growth over the last 30 yrs and the paucity of jobs that pay a living wage than it does about the merits of unemployment benefits or the average American’s work ethic
 
Well even if it destroys everything in it's path across all of humanity the process will not take 10 years. People will either be dead, recovered, or immunized (and effective treatments) long before that time.
What I mean is that we may have to play this game every 1-2 years, for a while, until we get the same kind of partial immunity we have to other respiratory viruses (i.e. we don't die or get PNA when meeting a new mutated strain).
 
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Imo this says more about (the lack of real) wage growth over the last 30 yrs and the paucity of jobs that pay a living wage ...


I would blame that on the birth of a globalized economy where blue collar US factory/manufacturing jobs went overseas to lands with lower labor costs. Nowadays the typical American is limited to clerking at Walmart without a trades certification from a vo-tech at a minimum. No more bringing home a living wage paycheck from the sweat of a 10th grade educated brawn working the assembly line.
 
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Imo this says more about (the lack of real) wage growth over the last 30 yrs and the paucity of jobs that pay a living wage than it does about the merits of unemployment benefits or the average American’s work ethic
Nobody is owed a living wage. You are generally going to be paid what you contribute. If people want to be responsible, train, and work hard there are plenty of trades and other jobs that need talent and pay a very good living wage. But the idea that somebody deserves a living wage for making a career out of jobs that contribute next to nothing and any 16 year old kid on summer vacation could do is a bit foolish.
 
The average age of a food service worker is 29. The average age of a retail worker is 38. Hopefully this latest economic shock will signal the metaphorical dying gasp of dumba$$ sociopaths who like to deny dignity to people who are willing to work for a living.
 
Nobody is owed a living wage. You are generally going to be paid what you contribute. If people want to be responsible, train, and work hard there are plenty of trades and other jobs that need talent and pay a very good living wage. But the idea that somebody deserves a living wage for making a career out of jobs that contribute next to nothing and any 16 year old kid on summer vacation could do is a bit foolish.

Things like automation and globalization have certainly contributed to declining worker value. However, let’s not forget about the short term mindset of maximizing shareholder profits. We all know the story of stock buybacks by now (and now those “buy backers” have their hands out for some government cheese). Our corporations have seen incredible amounts of wealth generation over the past few decades, but none of that has been reinvested back into the workers that made that possible. A big part of that is because employee bargaining power has been weakened in the name of stockholder profits. I think we are going to see just how detrimental that line of thinking was to the overall health of our economy over the next few months.

If it’s all about contribution then what do stockholders really contribute?
 
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