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Lol because it's the best way to pocket me.
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WildZenge Presents: Horizon Zero DaWWn
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supershorty
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My concern is in the event that we're wrong on April/Mel and should be looking elsewhere.
Ironically going off my history of packmate interactions, that analysis would probably point more to a Cray/Shorty or Cray/AM pack more than anything, since I'm village reading you guys most.
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Where is @cubsrule4e? Because I think a sound point raised is that if we put mechanics aside, he's more worrisome. The Lawper/Cubs thing if actually true, says village. And Lawper is trying.
Cubs wasn't making a lot of sense and then just disappeared.
With the way Lawper tinfoils, do you think it's possible they cooked up the claims for show?
I'm going nuts. Just about ready for the game to get moved to 12/12.
Cubs wasn't making a lot of sense and then just disappeared.
With the way Lawper tinfoils, do you think it's possible they cooked up the claims for show?
I'm going nuts. Just about ready for the game to get moved to 12/12.
I mean, you said you had a similar result from cubs so I don't see how the disabling part of his claim would be false. Still don't think cubs's ability is in any way AI, but what's said on the thread seems to be true.
supershorty
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Eh, IIRC in Bioshock, your reads on most of your pack were more toward the neutral zone, if anything. I was looking back at those interactions this morning.
Idk. You're still in my neutrals, I'm just feeling a little frozen right now because April today is reminding me SO MUCH of GGoats!April, but Mel is also sounding villagey today.
I mean the claims about their abilities interacting as they said they did and getting cleared as village as a result.
I don't question Cubs' claim about deactivation since I acted on him and was told he deactivated me. Lol.
Oh, well that seems like setting up a rough spot for Lawpy to fakeclaim his interaction with cubs. That means both would have to never be investigated doing anything/or connected to a stopped kill for at least one cycle (for Lawpy) and the rest of the game (for cubs). Pretty risky.
Enter one Lawpy
How are you reading TME?
Clink Clank Clunk, Something’s On The Move D1 Tally
Enigma () -
cubs (1) - alley
MsP (1) - genny
sporty (3) - cray, MsP, Mel
pleasy () -
mel (0) -
april (1) - Bob
Genny (2) - Cubs, TME
Alley (4) - Pleasy Dina, April, Sporty
Cray (0) -
Bob (2) - shorty, AM,
14/14 votes
Leading: @alleycat03
Missing:
Deadline: 10pm EST on 9/28 (~ 0 minutes)
Day 2 Confidence Is Quiet...You Are Not Vote Tally
sporty (2) - Bob, MsP
Bob (5) - Dina, pleasy, Cray, April, TME
genny (1) - shorty
cubs (1) - AM
shorty () -
Cray () -
April (3) - Mel, Sporty, Cubs
12/13 votes
Leading: Bob
Missing: Genny
Deadline: 10pm EST (~1 minutes)
Requoting these tallies as i thinkFINAL Day 3 To Serve A Purpose Greater Than Yourself Tally
Lawpy ()
Mel (4) - April, cubs, Enigma, sport sport
cray ()
April ()
sport sport (6) - shorty, lawpy, cray, Dina, AM, Mel
10/10 votes
Winner: @SportPonies
Missing: No one!
Deadline: PASSED
I think from VCA standpoint, cubs/TME looks unlikely
supershorty
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I've been all over the place with TME, and I know Dina and I felt bad about her because of the genny vote comments she'd made D2, but her claim fits with what she's been saying on thread and that's making me think I might be off base. I'd based my Sporty read off her reactions to the genny vote/her genny read, and that was off, so...
She had some really good posts on D2 and D3 that were a solid gamesolving effort, and I don't want to vote there today anymore.
Im behind on thread so Im just going to do a quick post dump before I start catching up since its a vote night. So unless something major happened today that i dont know about heres where I am:
I think Mel or April flip provides the best info at this point and I think Mel is the more wolfy candidate. April had a really sketchy first 2 days and I found myself actually agreeing with Mel on her, but as play has gone on she became a lot more village to me, which being at such odds with Mel moved him farther down the list, and also considering his non existent push on me feels quite strange. Village cleared JOAT also was vouching for april.
If Mel flips wolf, I'll be looking in the TME direction, or maybe even AM. I dont know if anyone agrees, but it feels like AM started the game pretty normal, but ever since Mel has been accumulating votes, it feels like her play has gone kinda flat. Got much quieter and is giving one sentence answers instead of the typical thought out posts.
If Mel flips village, I'll have to do a serious re-eval of April, because I think there's a wolf between them, but I havent been paying as close attention to April's interactions the more IVe been village reading her.
I also dont understand why Cray keeps saying "i look lost" or "dont make any sense." I asked her but she has yet to state why, as far as Ive seen. Unless she's referring to the one specific time I was talking about villagers laying off of me for night actions, which seemed to not make sense to her since players dont know if they are machines or not. I tried to clarify but Im not sure she read it or understood what I was saying. Maybe this could even be subtle shade since she's been very hedgy and "torn" on me. Maybe giving me just enough village cred, waiting for the right time to attempt a misyeet? I dunno, probably not, but something to consider.
I think Mel or April flip provides the best info at this point and I think Mel is the more wolfy candidate. April had a really sketchy first 2 days and I found myself actually agreeing with Mel on her, but as play has gone on she became a lot more village to me, which being at such odds with Mel moved him farther down the list, and also considering his non existent push on me feels quite strange. Village cleared JOAT also was vouching for april.
If Mel flips wolf, I'll be looking in the TME direction, or maybe even AM. I dont know if anyone agrees, but it feels like AM started the game pretty normal, but ever since Mel has been accumulating votes, it feels like her play has gone kinda flat. Got much quieter and is giving one sentence answers instead of the typical thought out posts.
If Mel flips village, I'll have to do a serious re-eval of April, because I think there's a wolf between them, but I havent been paying as close attention to April's interactions the more IVe been village reading her.
I also dont understand why Cray keeps saying "i look lost" or "dont make any sense." I asked her but she has yet to state why, as far as Ive seen. Unless she's referring to the one specific time I was talking about villagers laying off of me for night actions, which seemed to not make sense to her since players dont know if they are machines or not. I tried to clarify but Im not sure she read it or understood what I was saying. Maybe this could even be subtle shade since she's been very hedgy and "torn" on me. Maybe giving me just enough village cred, waiting for the right time to attempt a misyeet? I dunno, probably not, but something to consider.
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What do you make of aprils and TME voting bobs D2?
supershorty
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These both just don't feel like something a wolf would say. Particularly the top one.
I like the analysis here, too.
supershorty
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I have more concern about TME doing it than April - April was self prezzing. TME had moved her vote initially to April and then to Bob because moving to April made another tie. I don't really understand why TME moved in the first place when there was a tie - it was a reasonable assumption that April would move to break it and save herself, so I'm not sure why TME chose to move - and then once April had moved, why she (TME) didn't go back to genny.
supershorty
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Yeet Mel
This does bother me, since AM basically cleared shorty with the genny vote, and apparently her only reasoning for leaning me wolfy is the mere suggestion i made of a possible bus, which was deemed impossible.
I will agree that AM feels FAR less involved in driving the thread recently. my last encounter with wolf AM was the opposite of this, but this feels off in the opposite direction.
Will also note that Mel voted (for the first time that cycle) one minute after this.
my reasons that april has been resolving actually have less to do with her arguments/pushes/tone and more to do with other small details getting cleared up. Nothing has made me move you up yet. both of your arguments seem like they could either be genuine or wolfy
leaning mel-w/april-v > april-w/mel-v > v/v
w/w feels unlikely but would be an impressive wolfy effort
Mel's tone alone doesn't ping me. And honestly I'm not giving him village points for that, because he's an experienced player with a difficult to differentiate wolf vs village meta and tone. What's really set it off for me is who he's decided to push, when, and why.
Quite honestly if Mel had never prompted me to do an ISO on him, I never would have re-evaluated how he made those pushes and I might not have ended up wolf reading him. If I was going off of tone alone and not his interactions or pushes, I might even be village reading him right now, so I don't see him sounding villagey (especially for only one day) being a useful way to have a comprehensive and accurate read of him.
tbh it was because i was panicking about ties and looking at vote totals rather than who was on each particular vote, and counting is hard
a bad defense but it's the truth
Oh, that was the other thing that bothered me about Cray and also Mel. If you consider Dina, AM, shorty, and lawpy all in village or village leans, I think youve got a wolf and possibly two on that SP vote.
@Animal Midwife how's that lawpy reading card
I did notice that too, but I can't tell if that's just her freezing up under the pressure of us expecting her to read Lawpy perfectly combined with the pressure to vote in a game that has so many decent village reads. I'm inclined to say she's village but I wouldn't be opposed to re-evaluating her if it becomes necessary.
supershorty
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I'll eat a hat if AM isn't village, tbh. There are other people I'd be a lot more concerned about first.
Can always reevaluate village reads, she just wouldn't be my first priority. Partially based on thread behavior and partially based on our PM that we had the other night.
I do hope she comes back soon, she hasn't even voted yet.
Can always reevaluate village reads, she just wouldn't be my first priority. Partially based on thread behavior and partially based on our PM that we had the other night.
I do hope she comes back soon, she hasn't even voted yet.
Not saying its AI, per se, but do you think her tone/activity has shifted the second part of the game? Or reading it as the same?
supershorty
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She's definitely less active. My understanding is it's not unusual for her to get a little frozen when Mel's up for yeet and it's NAI (for both of them).
Hoping she picks back up though.
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Hi, this is your daily reminder that I’m village.
My gameplay was subpar the first day or two. I’m owning up to that. I wasn’t reading closely and was busy. Activity is NAI, so at least cut me some slack and consider that villagers may flounder the first couple of days especially without a night kill flip N1. I feel like if this was anyone but me, I’d be given that benefit of doubt
Since then though. I have made good analysis, good theories, and done my best to make sure everyone is evaluated and is evaluating other people.
Some of you have agreed with things I’ve pointed out. That’s because I’m pointing out things that make sense not trying to push my own agenda.
I am village.
Headed home from work. I’ll be around again for the hour before deadline. Make good choices 😛
My gameplay was subpar the first day or two. I’m owning up to that. I wasn’t reading closely and was busy. Activity is NAI, so at least cut me some slack and consider that villagers may flounder the first couple of days especially without a night kill flip N1. I feel like if this was anyone but me, I’d be given that benefit of doubt
Since then though. I have made good analysis, good theories, and done my best to make sure everyone is evaluated and is evaluating other people.
Some of you have agreed with things I’ve pointed out. That’s because I’m pointing out things that make sense not trying to push my own agenda.
I am village.
Headed home from work. I’ll be around again for the hour before deadline. Make good choices 😛
Last edited:
The search function is messed up for me
So if we exclude April, and in absence of a self prez situation, who would you vote tonight?
Thinking
Day 3 To Serve A Purpose Greater Than Yourself Tally
Lawpy ()
Mel (2) - April, cubs
cray ()
April (1) - Mel
sport sport (5) - shorty, lawpy, cray, Dina, AM
8/10 votes
Leading: @SportPonies
Missing: @SportPonies @TelemarketingEnigma
Deadline: 10pm EST (~1 hour)
Day 3 To Serve A Purpose Greater Than Yourself Tally
Lawpy ()
Mel (3) - April, cubs, Enigma
cray ()
April (1) - Mel
sport sport (5) - shorty, lawpy, cray, Dina, AM
9/10 votes
Leading: @SportPonies
Missing: @SportPonies
Deadline: 10pm EST (~50 minutes)
Feels like this self prez played a critical role in sealing sporty yeet
Day 3 To Serve A Purpose Greater Than Yourself Tally
Lawpy ()
Mel (3) - April, cubs, Enigma
cray ()
April ()
sport sport (6) - shorty, lawpy, cray, Dina, AM, Mel
9/10 votes
Leading: @SportPonies
Missing: @SportPonies
Deadline: 10pm EST (~20 minutes)
Sporty vote on aprils
Day 3 To Serve A Purpose Greater Than Yourself Tally
Lawpy ()
Mel (3) - April, cubs, Enigma
cray ()
April (1) - sport sport
sport sport (6) - shorty, lawpy, cray, Dina, AM, Mel
9/10 votes
Leading: @SportPonies
Missing: No one!
Deadline: 10pm EST (~9 minutes)
Day 3 To Serve A Purpose Greater Than Yourself Tally
Lawpy ()
Mel (4) - April, cubs, Enigma, sport sport
cray ()
April ()
sport sport (6) - shorty, lawpy, cray, Dina, AM, Mel
10/10 votes
Leading: @SportPonies
Missing: No one!
Deadline: 10pm EST (1 MINUTE! )
FINAL Day 3 To Serve A Purpose Greater Than Yourself Tally
Lawpy ()
Mel (4) - April, cubs, Enigma, sport sport
cray ()
April ()
sport sport (6) - shorty, lawpy, cray, Dina, AM, Mel
10/10 votes
Winner: @SportPonies
Missing: No one!
Deadline: PASSED
Although even if Mels remained on aprils, the vote margins would've probably been like Mels 3, aprils 2 and sporty 5.
Ah so when I make mistakes D1 and say it's because villagers don't have all the answers it's called a wolfy defense, but when you say it it's perfectly acceptable
Anyway, what concerns me about your voting history is D2. Sure, it's still early in the game, but it's more than a coincidence that when Genny was in danger, you shrugged off that yeet as a possibility, instead pushing me (someone I know is village) and changed your read on Bob from village to wolf (a confirmed villager) while simultaneously changing your read on shorty (a very green supposed villager) from wolf to village once you realized that yeet wasn't progressing. If it was just one or two of those, I could give you benefit of the doubt, but all four at the same time on the same day when a confirmed wolf was in danger of being yeeted SCREAMS wolfy TMI as well as wolfy misyeet strategy to me.
Did cray put SP in the lead over Mel? Or was she already on SP (3-1) when I voted Mel?
I'll go back further. One moment pls
supershorty
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Cray tied them. Sporty moved into the lead with Dina's vote. You voted Mel before Cray voted.
That TME vote is interesting as well. Stays off the main wagon but puts Mel in a 5-3 situation, that could have easily reversed... although if Mel is village, and we know SP was, then "either way we'll get good info on someone" could just be "meh, either way we get a villager."
Dina was vote #4, If I voted Mel before Cray, that means Cray put SP in the lead at 3-2.
Day 3 To Serve A Purpose Greater Than Yourself Tally
MsP (1) - AM
Mel (3) - April, cubs, Dina
cray ()
sporty (1) - shorty
5/10 votes
Leading: @Melchizedek
Missing: Half
Deadline: 10pm EST (~8 hours)
@cubsrule4e
supershorty
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That's not what my tracker reflects.
Dina was the 4th person to vote that day, yes, but her first vote was on Mel. The first Sporty vote didn't come until I voted for her just before 1 PM.
Ok I see. Dina switched from Mel to SP
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TieDay 3 To Serve A Purpose Greater Than Yourself Tally
Lawpy ()
Mel (3) - April, cubs, Dina
cray ()
sporty (3) - shorty, lawpy, cray
6/10 votes
Leading: A tie!@Melchizedek and @SportPonies
Missing: A few
Deadline: 10pm EST (~5 hours)
Oho! That gif was preventing me from quoting that tally!
Because I floundering around and once again at least trying to make my own sense of things.
Your floundering around consisted of sitting on an RVS vote all day and then sheeping village.
I'm not sure why you're implying my play is typically outside of one-liners when you've been playing with me for three years now.
That's because shorty didn't start up the genny vote by going "golly gee whiz, I sure bet genny would be bussed if she were wolfing here" before genny even flipped or had wagon traction.
And, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but you have bussed before, including a time where genny was your partner, yes?
He hasn't done tell I'm looking for, but I feel okay with him in my village leans for now.
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