thanks for the update rocketbooster! How did you find that out?
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!!!
someone from my interview day, who is also on hold, told me last night. I think he called them or something.
just to let everyone know, don't get your hopes up. I don't think our chances are good if we're put on hold.
not to ruin anyone's mood but...here's the breakdown from what I know:
175 spots
-45 for ED
-25 for special programs (KU's SMP, rural area program, deferred acceptances from year before)
________________________
105 spots left for RD
a reapplicant told me that, per interview session, KU accepts 10 ppl, rejects the bottom 3rd, and puts the rest on hold. he/she said the KU adcom told him/her this over the phone last year when he/she did not get in the first time.
~70 ppl/interview session
10 accepted
23 rejected
~35 on hold
10 accepted/session * 6 RD sessions = 60.
105
-60
_______________
45 spots left for "on hold" ppl
~35 on hold from each session
35*6=about 200 ppl on hold.
So, our "on hold" chances are ~45/210 to be straight accepted. Thus, about 25% chance we each hear good news tomorrow or the next day.
Now, I think they wait to send out the last interview session's (in February) decisions with the rest of the decisions for the "on hold" kids. So, you can then add +10 to the # of spots left and also +33 to the total # of "on hold." You add 33 because no one from the 6th interview session is put on hold. +23 because these ppl are not rejected and +10 because no acceptances are given out to 6th session kids yet. They are all given a final decision since the cycle is basically over.
More or less, since all the February kids are included with us, I think we have a chance of 55/243. That's exactly a 22.6% chance haha. I think it's actually a little better than that for us "on hold" kids because, if you think about it, that +23 is probably sorry applicants. They probably would have been directly rejected post-interview and not put on hold just like the previous 5 sessions. Since they're last, though, they are not put on hold and compete against us. Realistically, we probably don't have to worry about them, so maybe it's more like 55/220, thus exactly 25% chance for us.
For simplicity, let's just go with 50/200. In that case, tomorrow or the next day when we get our mail, 25% of us will get an acceptance, 25% will get waitlisted (I think they put ~50 on WL), and 50% will get a rejection.
So, as you can see, our chances aren't very good. Sorry to be pessimistic, but I think it's better to be realistic than optistimic so you're prepared for the worst answer.
We have 50% chance of straight rejection, 50% chance of a straight acceptance or waitlist spot. If you get waitlisted, you should probably consider it a rejection if you aren't in the top10. There's no way to predict how many acceptances will be turned by acceptees at this point, but my bet is it will be small since the economy is so bad. Since most acceptees are in-state, I doubt many will give up $20k/year for a better school of $40k/year, if many ppl even have that option.
Anyways, good luck!
