2014-2015 Waitlist Support Group

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mdapp1415 said:
@gyngyn when you see movement is it after the school has already notified the applicant, or is it just when they reported their decision to amcas (i.e. the applicant might not know about it yet)?
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I can see it if the school has registered the offer of acceptance with AMCAS.
Whether the school chooses to notify the candidate before or after is variable.
 
Do you think that schools will accept students with no current acceptances to ensure that students won't drop?
 
Paperbackwriter1356 said:
Do you think that schools will accept students with no current acceptances to ensure that students won't drop?
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That's not usually the way it works.
The most desirable waitlist candidates holding at schools from which poaching is easy are prime meat.
 
meetsub said:
Why is this?
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Imagine there are two candidates with similar application scores and A has an acceptance at a "less desirable school" and B has no acceptances. The fact that A has an acceptance shows that just based on the info that the school has, A already comes off as more desirable. Of course there could be many reasons that A happens to have an acceptance already and B doesn't, but at the end of the day the school won't try to decipher them. Also, the school can "steal" a good candidate away from another school and "win," where with candidate B the school can't do that. This is just what I think.
 
miamiheatfan said:
Imagine there are two candidates with similar application scores and A has an acceptance at a "less desirable school" and B has no acceptances. The fact that A has an acceptance shows that just based on the info that the school has, A already comes off as more desirable. Of course there could be many reasons that A happens to have an acceptance already and B doesn't, but at the end of the day the school won't try to decipher them. Also, the school can "steal" a good candidate away from another school and "win," where with candidate B the school can't do that. This is just what I think.
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Hmm okay so it's like higher percieved desirableness based off of another school picking this person up. Makes sense but sucks for us!
 
miamiheatfan said:
Imagine there are two candidates with similar application scores and A has an acceptance at a "less desirable school" and B has no acceptances. The fact that A has an acceptance shows that just based on the info that the school has, A already comes off as more desirable. Of course there could be many reasons that A happens to have an acceptance already and B doesn't, but at the end of the day the school won't try to decipher them. Also, the school can "steal" a good candidate away from another school and "win," where with candidate B the school can't do that. This is just what I think.
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I don't entirely buy this reasoning. I'd imagine that individual admissions teams are more willing to trust their own judgement about a candidate rather than be swayed by another schools decision. Further, I doubt schools much care about the "win" as you call it of poaching from another school.

Let's say you direct admissions at Duke and you are picking between a candidate with no acceptances, a candidate with an acceptance at Cornell, and a candidate with an acceptance at at Loma Linda. I think Duke will pick the candidate that purely is the best "fit" for their research-heavy, accelerated curriculum. This is most likely to be the cornell applicant not because cornell has already "vetted" the student or because they want to "win" over Cornell, but because anyone who's considered by Duke has a great application so it's not unlikely that a similar school like Cornell would take them.

Similarly, the Loma Linda student might be a great fit for that school but not for Duke, and there's no reason with just this info to believe that Duke would accept the LL student over the unaccepted student for any reason, unless they just simply are the better candidate.

TLDR: the most desirable candidates are those already holding an acceptance not because the acceptance confers desirability, but because statistically speaking, the best candidates will have an acceptance somewhere by now.
 
meetsub said:
Hmm okay so it's like higher percieved desirableness based off of another school picking this person up. Makes sense but sucks for us!
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It's the combination of factors. I really don't trust other school's decisions much. It doesn't make a candidate more delicious because they got in to a particular school. Heck, I just saw some really scary people get into really good schools!

If the most desirable person on your waitlist is holding an acceptance at Harvard, he is no longer the most desirable (since you can't get him!).
If the most desirable person is holding at a school just as good as yours and you have no reason to believe he will come, it will cost you up to two weeks to find out (and there is a good chance he will decline).
If the most desirable person on the list is holding at a "worse" school it might be wise to offer sooner (before he has moved) in order to increase his likelihood of affirmative response.
A person holding nowhere can still be desirable, but one can put off this decision a bit, often.
 
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gyngyn said:
It's the combination of factors. I really don't trust other school's decisions much. It doesn't make them more delicious because they got in to a particular school. Heck, I just saw some really scary people get into really good schools!

If the most desirable person on your waitlist is holding an acceptance at Harvard, he is no longer the most desirable (since you can't get him!).
If the most desirable person is holding at a school just as good as yours and you have no reason to believe he will come, it will cost you up to two weeks to find out (and there is a good chance he will decline).
If the most desirable person on the list is holding at a "worse" school it might be wise to offer sooner (before he has moved) in order to increase his likelihood of affirmative response.
A person holding nowhere can still be desirable, but one can put off this decision a bit, often.
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Put off the decision? 🙁. Wait, I get it! It's my birthday next week, one of my schools must be getting ready to give me the best bday gift ever right? RIGHT? : )
 
gyngyn said:
It's the combination of factors. I really don't trust other school's decisions much. It doesn't make a candidate more delicious because they got in to a particular school. Heck, I just saw some really scary people get into really good schools!

If the most desirable person on your waitlist is holding an acceptance at Harvard, he is no longer the most desirable (since you can't get him!).
If the most desirable person is holding at a school just as good as yours and you have no reason to believe he will come, it will cost you up to two weeks to find out (and there is a good chance he will decline).
If the most desirable person on the list is holding at a "worse" school it might be wise to offer sooner (before he has moved) in order to increase his likelihood of affirmative response.
A person holding nowhere can still be desirable, but one can put off this decision a bit, often.
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In your opinion, how desirable is a candidate who got accepted to a slightly "better" school but sent in a letter saying they would rather attend your school compared to a candidate who is accepted to a "lesser" school? Let me know if that doesn't make sense.
 
Ruby31 said:
In your opinion, how desirable is a candidate who got accepted to a slightly "better" school but sent in a letter saying they would rather attend your school compared to a candidate who is accepted to a "lesser" school? Let me know if that doesn't make sense.
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This is one of the few times that such letters make sense.
Such a candidate would be pulled in order of her rank.
 
QuentonCassidy3 said:
Any recent movement at Albany, Penn State, or Stony Brook? Thanks @gyngyn!!!
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I've seen people withdraw from BU, U of AZ Phoenix and UCF for other schools, but nothing at the ones you are following.
 
Do you guys think the fact that UCSD released people from the WL today means that they're gearing up to send out some acceptances? Or are they just cleaning house?
 
DocRunner said:
Do you guys think the fact that UCSD released people from the WL today means that they're gearing up to send out some acceptances? Or are they just cleaning house?
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Honestly, no one knows. I personally think they are cleaning their waitlist. But I wonder how large the WL is now...
 
gyngyn said:
I've seen people withdraw from BU, U of AZ Phoenix and UCF for other schools, but nothing at the ones you are following.
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Then, is it safe to expect some WL movement in those schools in the near future? :xf::xf:

Also, do you happen to know how long does it take to select a new candidate for a school with an unranked WL such as BU? (Just pure curiosity)

Thanks!
 
Benito25 said:
Then, is it safe to expect some WL movement in those schools in the near future? :xf::xf:

Also, do you happen to know how long does it take to select a new candidate for a school with an unranked WL such as BU? (Just pure curiosity)

Thanks!
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As long as these schools are depleting their excess, there will not be movement. Once movement has started, it can be expected to continue if students withdraw.
 
khrisskhoras said:
@gyngyn what kind of movement do you see at suny upstate and buffalo? alot or little?
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Our overlap with these schools is modest, but I haven't seen anything in the last few weeks.

AMCAS is having trouble bringing up reports again today, but it looks like there was movement at Geffen.
 
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Thank you so much for all your help @gyngyn!

Had another question for you. If you had to guesstimate a percentage, at this point, what do you think are the odds of someone coming off of 1 of 4 waitlists who is not currently holding an acceptance, given all 4 school's waitlists are moving?
 
QuentonCassidy3 said:
Thank you so much for all your help @gyngyn!

Had another question for you. If you had to guesstimate a percentage, at this point, what do you think are the odds of someone coming off of 1 of 4 waitlists who is not currently holding an acceptance, given all 4 school's waitlists are moving?
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Assuming a 10% chance at each of 4 schools:

P = 1 – (0.9)^4
P = 0.34 = 34% chance you are NOT rejected by all four (i.e. get into 1)
 
@gyngyn

Is it required that schools first notify AMCAS before notifying the student of an acceptance (i.e. would the acceptance be in the AMCAS system before the school can notify the student) or can they accept before notifying AMCAS?
 
Coolchurro said:
@gyngyn

Is it required that schools first notify AMCAS before notifying the student of an acceptance (i.e. would the acceptance be in the AMCAS system before the school can notify the student) or can they accept before notifying AMCAS?
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After March 15th, AMCAS must be notified within 2 business days of accepting a student.
The school where the candidate is holding an acceptance must be notified immediately (defined as same business day).
 
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Bovary said:
Assuming a 10% chance at each of 4 schools:

P = 1 – (0.9)^4
P = 0.34 = 34% chance you are NOT rejected by all four (i.e. get into 1)
Click to expand...

I've seen worse, not bad. Not bad at all. It ain't over till the clock hits triple 0 and the fat lady sings right?
 
QuentonCassidy3 said:
Thank you so much for all your help @gyngyn!

Had another question for you. If you had to guesstimate a percentage, at this point, what do you think are the odds of someone coming off of 1 of 4 waitlists who is not currently holding an acceptance, given all 4 school's waitlists are moving?
Click to expand...
It will depend on factors that are not in evidence.
Remain hopeful.
 
Bovary said:
Assuming a 10% chance at each of 4 schools:

P = 1 – (0.9)^4
P = 0.34 = 34% chance you are NOT rejected by all four (i.e. get into 1)
Click to expand...

Only if assuming the process is random chance, of course.
 
@gyngyn , any idea what's been going on with NYU's waitlist? Seems to me like there is little to no movement aside from the very small amount of acceptances a while back.
 
Anything from uci Usc or UC Davis lately? Thank you!
 
Anything from ucr, UVM, pennstate, or temple? Thanks in advance
 
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