*** 2021-2022 MD/PhD cycle - Questions, Comments, and other things ***

[holdmybow]

Woops I forgot to refresh this thread before replying and didn't see the question was already addressed!

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[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

Hi, applesauce14,

You might not yet have seen these threads below. There's a running list of rejections by school here:

*** 2021-2022 MD/PhD rejections thread ***

Lol Yale I love having the privilege of adding another school to this list haha ************************************* DO NOT ERASE THESE INSTRUCTIONS! 1) click quote on the most recent list 2) delete the quote tags on the top and bottom 3) add your user name, ( complete date, interview invite...

forums.studentdoctor.net

And invites here:

***2021-2022 MD/PhD Interview Invites***

Loyola!! Super excited! :) ****************************************** DO NOT ERASE THESE INSTRUCTIONS! 1) Click quote on the most recent list 2) Delete the quote tags on the top and bottom 3) Add your user name, (complete date, interview invite date, interview date, any other pertinent info...

forums.studentdoctor.net

As for being "ghosted", it might be useful to see last year's rejection thread to see the earliest reported rejection from some schools. Many don't send these until February or later.

*** 2020-2021 MD/PhD Rejections ***

Colorado ******************************************************************************************************************************************************* DO NOT ERASE THESE INSTRUCTIONS! 1) click quote on the most recent list 2) delete the quote tags on the top and bottom 3) add your...

forums.studentdoctor.net

I hope you hear some good news soon!

Thank you for linking the threads, these are the threads I was referring to as well! Good luck!

 

[Fencer]

On or about Sept. 15, the number of national MD/PhD applicant class for 2022 was identical to 2021 a year earlier (1503 applicants). Things are now different ... a ~ 9% drop.

10/5/2021	2022​				10/5/2020	2021​
Action	n​	MCAT​	cGPA​		Action	n​	MCAT​	cGPA​
TOTAL APPLICANTS	1599​	512.3​	3.71​		TOTAL APPLICANTS	1754​	512.0​	3.69​
WB	17​	514.5​	3.79​		WB	13​	516.4​	3.81​
Rejected Groups					Rejected Groups
PR	177​	510.8​	3.64​		PR	342​	512.5​	3.69​
PW	0​	-​	-​		PW	2​	500​	3.52​
RJ	335​	513.4​	3.71​		RJ	297​	513.1​	3.70​
DR	14​	518.4​	3.91​		DR	0​	-​	-​
AC,DF,EM,MA,RA,WA	0​	-​	-​		AC,DF,EM,MA,RA,WA	0​	-​	-​
Available - Active					Available - Active
RS	683​	512.5​	3.72​		RS	744​	511.2​	3.68​
IN	206​	516.9​	3.85​		IN	201​	516.6​	3.80​
Available - Passive					Available - Passive
NA	142​	504.1​	3.58​		NA	123​	506.3​	3.58​
HO	25​	502.1​	3.53​		HO	30​	503.6​	3.50​

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

On or about Sept. 15, the number of national MD/PhD applicant class for 2022 was identical to 2021 a year earlier (1503 applicants). Things are now different ... a ~ 9% drop.

10/5/2021	2022​				10/5/2020	2021​
Action	n​	MCAT​	cGPA​		Action	n​	MCAT​	cGPA​
TOTAL APPLICANTS	1599​	512.3​	3.71​		TOTAL APPLICANTS	1754​	512.0​	3.69​
WB	17​	514.5​	3.79​		WB	13​	516.4​	3.81​
Rejected Groups					Rejected Groups
PR	177​	510.8​	3.64​		PR	342​	512.5​	3.69​
PW	0​	-​	-​		PW	2​	500​	3.52​
RJ	335​	513.4​	3.71​		RJ	297​	513.1​	3.70​
DR	14​	518.4​	3.91​		DR	0​	-​	-​
AC,DF,EM,MA,RA,WA	0​	-​	-​		AC,DF,EM,MA,RA,WA	0​	-​	-​
Available - Active					Available - Active
RS	683​	512.5​	3.72​		RS	744​	511.2​	3.68​
IN	206​	516.9​	3.85​		IN	201​	516.6​	3.80​
Available - Passive					Available - Passive
NA	142​	504.1​	3.58​		NA	123​	506.3​	3.58​
HO	25​	502.1​	3.53​		HO	30​	503.6​	3.50​

The decrease in number of applications (n=155) corresponds very closely with the only other significant year-on-year change, that being preliminary rejections (n=165). Could the decrease in applicants - and corresponding decrease in preliminary rejections - be at all related to simply fewer less-competitive applicants applying this cycle than last cycle?

 

[Neuro.Doc]

The decrease in number of applications (n=155) corresponds very closely with the only other significant year-on-year change, that being preliminary rejections (n=165). Could the decrease in applicants - and corresponding decrease in preliminary rejections - be at all related to simply fewer less-competitive applicants applying this cycle than last cycle?

@Fencer : Thank you for your generous sharing of critical data.

@2021-2022-NonTrad : You bring up a very good point. This is the first app cycle where the Covid effect on research has fully been recognized. Last year, students doing on-campus research had to stop their work in March-April, and then applied in June-July. Not much lost time.

This year, some students lost a full year of research, which means fewer demonstrable outputs (pubs), almost no in-person poster presentations, etc.

Hence, the "perceived quality" of applicants is lower (when compared to prior years).

This might also account for why many schools have delayed sending out II, as they may all be waiting for the full cohort of applicants to be reviewed before sending out II.

 

[Fencer]

Overall, the easily measurable metrics (cGPA and MCAT) are essentially the same. I believe that there is more information on when to apply in the internet, when it is becoming late, etc. Agree with @Neuro.Doc regarding perceived quality... Having said that, I am pretty sure that more than half of the interview invites have been offered. If you are not happy with the number of invites, you should strongly consider adding schools now! In prior years, we would have had extended 70-75% of invites by now, at the moment, we only have done 50%. We still have 4 dates unfilled. Next release for us would be Monday Oct. 25 for December interviews (and we still have two dates in January and one in February).

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

Just as a resource for anyone who wants to use it, I have been crowdsourcing which MD/PhD programs accept updates.

If you have new schools or better information, please feel free to update the list.

This is just a crowdsourcing tool meant to act as a starting point, *always* check with the school or their website if you have more specific questions/want to make sure.

Either way, hope this helps others.



Here is the link to edit

 

[Neuro.Doc]

Just as a resource for anyone who wants to use it, I have been crowdsourcing which MD/PhD programs accept updates.

If you have new schools or better information, please feel free to update the list.

This is just a crowdsourcing tool meant to act as a starting point, *always* check with the school or their website if you have more specific questions/want to make sure.

Either way, hope this helps others.



Here is the link to edit

@Fencer - please add to this discussion --

I would be careful to not bombard the MSTP directors with multiple "updates". Each update will delay the review of your application. They may also get annoyed with the frequent updates. Look at Harvard - they only allow 2 updates. I like this limit as it forces you to be judicious in your updates.

Many allow for an email update - it is very easy to "send a quick update". Please refrain. The person handling all emails will get annoyed with your frequent "email updates", which could be detrimental to you application.

My thoughts on updates -

- if you have done important stuff since the application was filed in May-June, AND you have not received an interview by early November, then send an update - in a CONCISE manner so their reading time in minimal.

- if you have an update AFTER the interview, but before a decision is granted (for example, many schools release only in Feb-March, and are not rolling), then send an update in early January before the committee sits down for their final decision meeting

I would love to hear @Fencer 's thoughts regarding these updates.

NOTE - we are still only in the "middle" of this MSTP cycle. As @Fencer stated, they have only sent out 50% of the II. A few schools have not even started to send out their II. So everyone stay optimistic, think happy thoughts, and stay focused on the prize.

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

Please refrain.

Absolutely. I hope no one takes a list like this to mean “send every school multiple updates,” I was just trying to crowdsource that information for later in the cycle.

 

[applesauce14]

When is the first day that MD/PhD programs are allowed to release acceptances? Will we have a separate thread for acceptances or this one

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

When is the first day that MD/PhD programs are allowed to release acceptances? Will we have a separate thread for acceptances or this one

They are allowed to send out acceptances October 15th, however the earliest date I am aware of is October 20th. Looking at previous years, very few acceptances come out in October with most people getting their first acceptance in December. We will likely have a separate thread made in the early parts of next week.

 

[Fencer]

@Fencer - please add to this discussion --

I would be careful to not bombard the MSTP directors with multiple "updates". Each update will delay the review of your application. They may also get annoyed with the frequent updates. Look at Harvard - they only allow 2 updates. I like this limit as it forces you to be judicious in your updates.

Many allow for an email update - it is very easy to "send a quick update". Please refrain. The person handling all emails will get annoyed with your frequent "email updates", which could be detrimental to you application.

My thoughts on updates -

- if you have done important stuff since the application was filed in May-June, AND you have not received an interview by early November, then send an update - in a CONCISE manner so their reading time in minimal.

- if you have an update AFTER the interview, but before a decision is granted (for example, many schools release only in Feb-March, and are not rolling), then send an update in early January before the committee sits down for their final decision meeting

I would love to hear @Fencer 's thoughts regarding these updates.

NOTE - we are still only in the "middle" of this MSTP cycle. As @Fencer stated, they have only sent out 50% of the II. A few schools have not even started to send out their II. So everyone stay optimistic, think happy thoughts, and stay focused on the prize.

Some responses that I hope are useful to current and future applicants:

• We do not want multiple updates - They must be substantive (new manuscripts accepted/published, new grades not in term, new research experience of > 8 weeks, etc.). Early in cycle, no more than every other month. Addressed to committee and sent to program coordinator. Late (after January), could do a "real" letter of interest to 2-3 programs at most, addressed to PD, sent to PD. The idea suggested above (by @Neuro.Doc ) of early November, and January is quite logical, but obviously depends of each program timeline. Some schools interview until November, while some complete interviews until February. Frequent emails are annoying.
• We passed the "middle" of invitations to interview about 2-3 weeks ago. So while you should take this as a learning/experience journey, you must act now if you want to optimize your chances. Just keep in mind that the pool of MD/PhD applicants for this cycle is slightly smaller than last cycle, perhaps offering more opportunities to current applicants.

 

[Neuro.Doc]

When one looks at the "odds" of success after an MSTP interview, it is anywhere from 15-30% - purely based on hard numbers. For example, Harvard interviews about 80 and 24 matriculate (30%). Columbia interviews 100 and 13 matriculate.

As we all know, matriculation is not the same as acceptance. So, I feel the numbers are much higher - possibly twice as high.

A couple of questions to think about - I would love @Fencer to put his 2 cents -

- what is the typical Yield rate for an MSTP program (matriculated to acceptance ratio). I am sure it varies significantly school-to-school, but, on average, are we in the 30% range or 80% range?

- do MSTP programs rank the students BEFORE the interview, with the MSTP interviews being confirmatory, or does the "ranking" occur after the interviews?

--------------

Based on my discussions with various MSTP directors (from schools of all tiers) is that the yield is roughly 50%. But this is purely anecdotal, without any firm data to back it up.

Regarding ranking - I have not received a direct answer to this question in talking to my colleagues, so I do not have any thoughts to share on this question.

 

[Fencer]

Every program is different, and the timeline actually also changes yield. If you only interview starting in January, those with acceptances decline interviews. So the actual "real" yield is something more obscure (Invited to Interview group). My program ranks all applicants before Interview. The ranking changes every day as MCAT scores are released and we receive substantial updates. We actually do a lot of work to do "real" holistic review. For perspective, in the 2021 cycle, only 81% of first quartile applicants were invited; 50% and 25% of second and third quartile applicants were invited to interview, respectively. We interviewed 73%, 45% and 22% of applicants. However, the original ranking consisted of academic benchmarks; the ranking post-interview includes other factors that amount to 2/3 of the eventual composite MSTP score. I have seen applicants w 528 at the middle of the post-interview ranking (not accepted), and people with 508 above them. This is what holistic interviewing is about and it is all earned by the applicant during the interview. The post-interview ranking is also the beginning of the conversation in the admissions committee. It is an inexact science and we have made mistakes (both ways accepting and rejecting). Having said that over 92% of our interviewees get at least one acceptance in the national admissions cycle, so we pick relatively well...

 

[love2chis]

Harvard interviews about 80 and 24 matriculate (30%).

Each year Harvard has about 15 slots for MSTP, but Harvard MD students can opt to add PhD (but they are not MSTP) and make Harvard's MD PhDs more than 15.

 

[257544789853]

I'm new to SDN so my apologies if this is against the rules: I was wondering if there was an MD/PhD director (or someone in a similar position who typically gives advice on this forum) who wouldn't mind if I sent them a direct message with a specific question? It's about a potential issue that may be raised at an upcoming interview. Thank you in advance.

Edit: it's a specific issue with potential identifiers so I'd prefer to share details in a less-public format.

 

[Fencer]

Send a PM.

 

[boxturtle19]

new to SDN but just wondering if it's too late now to add additional schools?

 

[holdmybow]

new to SDN but just wondering if it's too late now to add additional schools?

If you do, move fast. Here's list of most MD/PhD schools with primary and secondary deadlines along with some other stats. It may not be perfect (for instance, it uses Iowa's priority deadlines rather than absolute).

Edit: a few notes on codes here. 1=Yes, 0=No, 999=unranked, unk=unknown.
Edit2: This also doesn't account for final interview dates by school. And of course deadlines for medical schools are not the target for when to have your application complete, etc etc
Edit3: Fencer caught that UTSA's MSTP primary deadline is actually 15 November. This brings up another point I forgot: sometimes I couldn't find the MD/PhD specific deadlines, and therefore used the MD dates. Check with each school's website before relying on this and let me know if you find any corrections. (Working on editing the original.)

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

If you do, move fast. Here's list of most MD/PhD schools with primary and secondary deadlines along with some other stats. It may not be perfect (for instance, it uses Iowa's priority deadlines rather than absolute).

Edit: a few notes on codes here. 1=Yes, 0=No, 999=unranked, unk=unknown.
Edit2: This also doesn't account for final interview dates by school. And of course deadlines for medical schools are not the target for when to have your application complete, etc etc

This is definitely the he “how can I compile the data that is available to me in a beneficial way” cycle and I am here for it.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Not sure if this helps, but a few people on the physician scientists discord were wondering the same thing. It caused me to dig through the old interview invite threads on SDN (not a good choice for personal sanity).

I graphed the density of interview invite dates:

View attachment 341650

I also made one big, ugly graph with every single school represented.

View attachment 341651

Most programs have a broad range of interview invite dates. Some programs (UWashington, Tri-I, Zucker Hofstra/Northwell) send out interviews early, while some send out interviews late (Mayo Clinic). Also, even though this data isn't shown, the time between completing the secondary and getting an invite varies from person to person. Some people get an invite in the "first wave", while others have to wait a few more months, despite completing the secondary around the same time.

Lastly, keep in mind that this data is exclusively from SDN posts, which has a ton of response bias.

Are these graphs matplotlib or ggplot?

 

[toofastdan]

Are these graphs matplotlib or ggplot?

The graphs are made in matplotlib/seaborn. Personally I prefer ggplot, but I use python for text analysis (regex) and dates.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

The graphs are made in matplotlib/seaborn. Personally I prefer ggplot, but I use python for text analysis (regex) and dates.

Same I prefer ggplot but like python so much better than R. Though R is faster imo

 

[mitochondriaa]

Hi, I am wondering if you upload an update letter on the application portal, do you still need to send a separate email to the admission committee or it's redundant?

 

[skeeter11]

Hi, I am wondering if you upload an update letter on the application portal, do you still need to send a separate email to the admission committee or it's redundant?

Here's what I've been doing: If there's an option to upload to the portal, I don't email. If there's no portal upload and they don't explicitly say no updates (e. g. UNC), I email admissions.

 

[puppymcpupperson]

Hi @Fencer @Neuro.Doc - Happy to PM you separately too but really hoping for some advice. I'm an intl reapplicant but never applied MD PhD before. Over the past few years gained a lot of research experience, several pubs etc and realized I wanted to pursue this route. However, my interests lie in non-basic science/ lab based research (clinical outcomes/health services). Since not all schools offer these programs and being intl adds another layer, I've applied to a handful of schools and havent heard back from any yet. Expanding the list may be difficult - what else can I do at this point? I plan to submit updates once a few of the papers under review are accepted by journals.

 

[Fencer]

Examine the NIH CTSA list and then look for PhD in Translational Science. My recollection is that 22 CTSA institutions (but not all are affiliated with MD/PhD programs). Nevertheless, the other difficulty is that you are an International applicant. That requires funding from non-federal sources, which is more difficult for the medical part of the training. You might consider on doing a PhD then get a green card, and then obtain your MD. Alternatively, you could do your MD and later pursue a PhD or further research training.... it is not an easy pathway but doable. Good luck!

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

Examine the NIH CTSA list and then look for PhD in Translational Science. My recollection is that 22 CTSA institutions (but not all are affiliated with MD/PhD programs).

This is an excellent strategy that I also utilized in selecting some schools. However, to @puppymcpupperson, from my recollection, only a little less than half of the CTSA MD/PhD programs offer a PhD in translational Science specifically, and only about 3/4 of them have CTSA grants available to apply to for graduate research (with the rest being for continuing education, Masters programs for regular MD students, and/or fellowship funding). Either way, having an institute available at the same university is fantastic due to the connections available, but do be aware of this when you are researching programs.

 

[Neuro.Doc]

Hi @Fencer @Neuro.Doc - Happy to PM you separately too but really hoping for some advice. I'm an intl reapplicant but never applied MD PhD before. Over the past few years gained a lot of research experience, several pubs etc and realized I wanted to pursue this route. However, my interests lie in non-basic science/ lab based research (clinical outcomes/health services). Since not all schools offer these programs and being intl adds another layer, I've applied to a handful of schools and havent heard back from any yet. Expanding the list may be difficult - what else can I do at this point? I plan to submit updates once a few of the papers under review are accepted by journals.

Keep in mind that separate MD and PhD programs would probably be disjointed. Additionally, many MD-PhD programs "try" to get you out of the PhD in 4 years or less. A straight PhD may not guarantee you that time frame. Also, if you do MD first, then applying for a residency might be a bit tougher since you will have been 4-6 years from medical school.

You may also want to consider the "PSTP" (Physician Scientist Training Program) that some schools offer - these are a 1 year add-on whereby you get lab research experience, without a formal PhD degree. But, it will set you up for a career in academic medicine.

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

Wanting to find a rough estimate of the proportion of interview invites still left to be given, I spent the last couple of hours playing around with the MD/PhD Interview day calendar provided by the AAMC here.

The end result of this was a few informative graphs and a fun "calculator" to give a rough (if potentially completely meaningless) estimate of the remaining interview invites left to be sent. Some interesting highlights from the AAMC calendar: As of today, only 17.25% of all "interview days" have occurred and the month of January is almost as busy as the month of November.

Looking at the calculator found here, the methodology is fairly simple. You enter a timeframe of how far ahead you believe that schools are scheduling interviews on average, and it gives you back the remaining percentage of interview invites, assuming that schools are sending out invites now for N days from now. As an example, using today's date, if schools are sending invites 2 weeks in advance (on average) then 73% of interview invites are yet to be sent based on this calculator. If schools are sending invites 6 weeks in advance, then 51% remain, and if schools are sending an average of 10 weeks in advance then 34.5% of remaining invites could be left. This is 100% for fun and not predictive of anything. There are also two other calculators that use the same method based on when you submitted a secondary and any hypothetical date in the cycle.

There are quite a few flaws with it: there is the assumption of attending of all interviews, uniformity of interview day participants across the cycle, does not factor in the holidays, equates interview days with interview invites, many schools do not participate in the AAMC calendar etc.

Again, overall just something fun I put together overnight. I did it all by hand as I have yet to learn Python, so it isn't as pretty as @toofastdan but I still think a nifty exercise if anyone wants to play around with it. If anything, the graphs are still present, accurate, and informative.

 

[Fencer]

It will be closer to 6 weeks. Now, one issue is participation bias, with MD/PhD programs that complete interview cycle within the traditional Oct-Dec or Oct-Jan timeline not feeling urgency in participating in the calendar, while those outside the range feeling the need to communicate their window.

Could you explain the column of "running total of interview days", how you get 516 interview days between Aug 9 and March 9. In addition, to provide you an additional perspective, in a normal application year, across the nation we extend about 2200 MD/PhD acceptances to 850 applicants (solid data). Thus, at minimum, I estimate that we have at least 4500 MD/PhD interview slots (likely no more than 5000) across the nation.

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

one issue is participation bias,

I recognized there would be a bias, however, this is definitely interesting to note. There would be fewer programs inclined to share when they have their interview days during the window we would assume they are present. This definitely shows in the AAMC calendar. My most optimistic guess would have been in the window of 45-55% of invites having been sent out, and the 'calculator' says 51% at 6 weeks. So it is absolutely geared towards most optimistic and sides with your perspective of the bias. However I will note, there are 60 participating programs making up the majority of the larger programs - although that does not mean that they are reporting all of their interview dates.

how you get 516 interview days between Aug 9 and March 9.

Yes, starting from the first through the final reported interview day on the AAMC calendar, there are 516 individual "interview dates." This includes all reported dates on which interviews are held, individually counting each school on each date. So ‘interview days’ being potential interviews which students might be attending. It is just a running total of the column immediately adjacent of interviews per day. While most schools do 2 days across an interview event, some such as OHSU have 3 or 4.days under one interview event while others have one. I filtered out/removed the revisit weekends and tallied all of the remaining points.

As opposed to individually counting every "interview event" I used the total "days of interviewing" as I cannot properly judge what all program's real interview weeks look like. Although this would amount to around 258 "interview events" assuming an average of 2 days. That works out to around 4 interview events per school, which sounds about right

Edit: Added more clarification

 

[mdphd63627]

Is there an acceptance thread? just received the call!

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

Is there an acceptance thread? just received the call!

I already own the invites and waitlist thread, so I can create the acceptance one too if there isn't one later today .... Or is it "Nose goes" and first acceptance gets to make it?

Also, congratulations!!!

 

[applesauce14]

Is there an acceptance thread? just received the call!

congrats!!! do you mind if I ask where you got accepted? I am anticipating a decicsion today as wel!

 

[mdphd63627]

congrats!!! do you mind if I ask where you got accepted? I am anticipating a decicsion today as wel!

USF!

 

[applesauce14]

USF!

congrats future doctor!!

 

[deleted728364]

On or about Sept. 15, the number of national MD/PhD applicant class for 2022 was identical to 2021 a year earlier (1503 applicants). Things are now different ... a ~ 9% drop.

10/5/2021	2022​				10/5/2020	2021​
Action	n​	MCAT​	cGPA​		Action	n​	MCAT​	cGPA​
TOTAL APPLICANTS	1599​	512.3​	3.71​		TOTAL APPLICANTS	1754​	512.0​	3.69​
WB	17​	514.5​	3.79​		WB	13​	516.4​	3.81​
Rejected Groups					Rejected Groups
PR	177​	510.8​	3.64​		PR	342​	512.5​	3.69​
PW	0​	-​	-​		PW	2​	500​	3.52​
RJ	335​	513.4​	3.71​		RJ	297​	513.1​	3.70​
DR	14​	518.4​	3.91​		DR	0​	-​	-​
AC,DF,EM,MA,RA,WA	0​	-​	-​		AC,DF,EM,MA,RA,WA	0​	-​	-​
Available - Active					Available - Active
RS	683​	512.5​	3.72​		RS	744​	511.2​	3.68​
IN	206​	516.9​	3.85​		IN	201​	516.6​	3.80​
Available - Passive					Available - Passive
NA	142​	504.1​	3.58​		NA	123​	506.3​	3.58​
HO	25​	502.1​	3.53​		HO	30​	503.6​	3.50​

Hi @Fencer, subtracting the rejected groups/withdrawn groups from total current applicants, there are only 1056 remaining applicants competing for 850 acceptances. It appears that the chances of getting at least one acceptance is currently 80%, but this sounds a bit too optimistic.. do you expect a good chunk of the RJ group to add more schools?

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Wait how is that even possible. Self selection? I thought for MD only it’s like 60k for 20k seats. How is phd 1056 for 850?

Hi @Fencer, subtracting the rejected groups/withdrawn groups from total current applicants, there are only 1056 remaining applicants competing for 850 acceptances. It appears that the chances of getting at least one acceptance is currently 80%, but this sounds a bit too optimistic.. do you expect a good chunk of the RJ group to add more schools?

 

[Fencer]

The overall acceptance rate for MD/PhD applicants was 41.2%... 2068 applicants got 851 accepted slots with 760 matriculants (this is 2021 cycle). In the end, prior to the end of interviews the 851 accepted MD/PhD applicants received about 2200 MD/PhD acceptances (about 40% of matriculants get 1, 20% get 2, etc.).

Quite often, particularly, late in the process, some people get pulled out from rejection to interview. The key is that this is more highly distributed than MD admissions. We only have on average 5-12 slots (only ~13 programs w >13 slots), thus programs interview 30-100 applicants to extend 15-40 acceptances.
And even later in the process, some post-interview rejected get re-assessed by some programs for possible acceptances.

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

Now that I have played with some data I want to do it more. @Fencer I see why you enjoy MedEd number crunching (even though you are using real data and half of this is user gnerated), there are so many questions to ask!

Thank you to @toofastdan for sharing his raw data collected from the past several cycles. After making my calculator thing, I became curious to actually see if I could evaluate or quantify the bias we all presume is present here on SDN. Using the same concept as the calculator I made to predict the remaining Interview Invites, I compared the SDN-reported data from the past three cycles to the AAMC calendar of Interview Days.

The top is all SDN Interview Invites from the last 3 cycles overlayed on all interview events from the AAMC calendar from the last 3 cycles (where 'interview events' are every school interviewing on a particular date).

The bottom is all SDN interview invites from the last three cycles overlayed on a hypothetical pattern of what the interview invites chart should look like assuming schools are sending out invites an average of 6 weeks before the actual interviews (with a reallocation of the holiday break to appropriate areas). This acts as a very very rough estimate of what one would expect given the distribution of interview dates.

And to put some numbers to it instead of just a visual:

	Percentage of Invites SDN	Percentage of Invites Hypothetical
July	1.912568306​	0.751072961​
Aug	23.3151184​	8.690987124​
Sept	32.42258652​	20.81545064​
Oct	19.85428051​	20.92274678​
Nov	12.02185792​	20.06437768​
Dec	7.832422587​	17.91845494​
Jan	2.459016393​	9.442060086​
Feb	0.182149362​	1.072961373​
Mar	0​	0​

My observations from this:

Chart 1) SDN is very early. The hefty sum in the begining can likely be explained by people still being excited to share, the natural high tendency of SDN, and - as Fencer mentioned - some schools that interview early not being on the calendar.

Chart 2) It is more obvious here than in the first chart....SDN is REALLY early. What I am wondering is - while we can explain the presence of the early peaks - the later stages of the cycle should be seeing about twice the number of interviews.....but we aren't seeing that.

My questions:

Do we feel this is a visualization of SDN bias or does the cycle actually reflect what is seen here?

Where do all of those January through March Interview days get filled? Do they get filled early? Or is there a December/January soft-wave (predicted by the hypothetical line) that is not present in the SDN data?

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Probably going to get a lot of hate for this but

I think that January through March interviews are a meme. They’re often touted on r/premed as antecdotes to cheer up discouraged applicants. Maybe people do in fact interview in those months but I’m guessing that they fill up in November and December.

ie. “Don’t worry bro! A friend of a friend received 14 interviews but didn’t get his first until December!!”

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

Probably going to get a lot of hate for this but

I think that January through March interviews are a meme. They’re often touted on r/premed as antecdotes to cheer up discouraged applicants. Maybe people do in fact interview in those months but I’m guessing that they fill up in November and December.

ie. “Don’t worry bro! A friend of a friend received 14 interviews but didn’t get his first until December!!”

Well, those interview dates do actually exist, and I could absolutely see January filling up in November and December, but there is still a decent chunk of February and March interviews. I am 'only' at 4 interviews for MD/PhD, but every single one has been me filling out for 4-6 weeks out as opposed to months in advance.

I don't think you will or should get hate. That is an opinion on the questions I asked and thank you for sharing! Honestly, I think a lot of people would still be happy if they were filled in November and December as there are a substantial number of spots to fill and a substantial number of folks with 2 whole months to fill them!

 

[Fencer]

Probably going to get a lot of hate for this but

I think that January through March interviews are a meme. They’re often touted on r/premed as antecdotes to cheer up discouraged applicants. Maybe people do in fact interview in those months but I’m guessing that they fill up in November and December.

ie. “Don’t worry bro! A friend of a friend received 14 interviews but didn’t get his first until December!!”

They are not a meme at all... At least half of my matriculating class over the past few years come from the last 3 groups of interviewees. Early interviewees tend to have higher benchmarks, but more importantly, applied early to us and others giving them more chances to interview and greater number of acceptances across the nation (anecdotical from one program) as compared to Jan/Feb interviewees.

Now, @2021-2022-NonTrad posted interesting dataset from SDN. As a MSTP PD, I can tell that PS SDN posters are about 15-20% of the matriculating MD/PhD class. Many are highly accomplished at their professional level. There is an element of anxiety and paranoia, but believe me that many of you are going to land in terrific programs.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Btw where is this AAMC calendar from? Can’t seem to find it from a google search

Oh is this just for MD/PhD invites? Never mind my initial post. Was thinking of MD. Sometimes I lose track of which thread I’m in

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

Btw where is this AAMC calendar from? Can’t seem to find it from a google search

Oh is this just for MD/PhD invites? Never mind my initial post. Was thinking of MD. Sometimes I lose track of which thread I’m in

MD-PhD Interviews and Revisit Days

calendar.google.com

I used the last 4 years of this.

 

[MD-PhD-NonTrad]

Now, @2021-2022-NonTrad posted interesting dataset from SDN. As a MSTP PD, I can tell that PS SDN posters are about 15-20% of the matriculating MD/PhD class. Many are highly accomplished at their professional level. There is an element of anxiety and paranoia, but believe me that many of you are going to land in terrific programs.

Absolutely, and - at least for me - visualizing this bias helps alleviate the vast majority of the anxiety.

 

[skeeter11]

Absolutely, and - at least for me - visualizing this bias helps alleviate the vast majority of the anxiety.

Thanks so much for doing this @2021-2022-NonTrad ! This made me feel better too, and it was really interesting to see the reporting bias. May the rest of October, November, and December bring more love

 

[Neuro.Doc]

Although many applicants think we are at the "end" of the application season, we are actually in the early-middle of this cycle.

In past years, I would say that II went out 6-8 weeks in advance since flights, hotels and other travel issues had to be coordinated. Last year was a zoo since we were all thrust into a new way of doing things, so we cannot use last year as an example.

But this year, with lessons learned and new processes adopted, I feel 4 weeks is a good average length of time between II and actual interview.

So, when there are so many interview dates in January and February, don't be surprised if some II arrive in December or early January.

Stay positive and hopeful - in a few months, you guys will be walking proud as future double-docs !

 

[MSTPadvocate]

Our program is adjusting by filling each interview date about 6 weeks ahead of time. This means that for our February interview date, we will likely be giving interview offers out the first week in January. With a virtual year of experience behind us, we think this is advantageous for both the applicants and our MSTP (for reasons that could be the subject of an entire separate post).