Fruit Shapes WW - Game Thread

[alissa14]

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Why are you surprised Stagg flipped town? What do you think about Doggo's ability?

I’m surprised Stagg flopped town because I thought I was the only town fruit vendor. My guess is whoever sent cubs dates is a wolf fruit vendor. I’m guessing doggo’s ability could determine who the fruit vendors are and maybe use process of elimination between the 3 to figure out which is wolf? Not sure

 

[alissa14]

so I did some analysis on the numbers...
I’m thinking the second and third scenario are most likely. @Animal Midwife and @cubsrule4e and whoever else playing who has run a game, I’d like to hear thoughts on which scenario you guys think is most likely considering we only started with 9... basically these are all the worst case scenarios

If there are two wolves today is already mylo:
5:2 -> lynch villager -> 4:2 -> wolves kill villager -> 3:2 -> lylo
In this scenario village has one mislynch until lylo

If there’s one wolf and one neutral 3P, any number of scenarios could play out but basically we have more time until lylo. Theoretically though, if the wolf doesn’t kill the 3P and village doesn’t lynch the 3P, then the scenario could follow this
5:1:1 -> lynch villager -> 4:1:1-> wolf kills villager -> 3:1:1 (Edited here because I’m realizing this would be lylo) -> lynch villager -> 2:1:1 -> wolf kills villager -> 1:1:1 wolf and 3P win
In this scenario village has 1 mislynch until lylo

If there’s only one wolf and no 3P:
6:1 -> lynch villager -> 5:1 -> wolf kills villager -> 4:1 -> lynch villager -> 3:1 -> wolf kills villager -> 2:1 -> lylo
In this scenario village has 2 mislynches until lylo

 

[Animal Midwife]

I’m surprised Stagg flopped town because I thought I was the only town fruit vendor. My guess is whoever sent cubs dates is a wolf fruit vendor. I’m guessing doggo’s ability could determine who the fruit vendors are and maybe use process of elimination between the 3 to figure out which is wolf? Not sure

Between the 3?

so I did some analysis on the numbers...
I’m thinking the second and third scenario are most likely. @Animal Midwife and @cubsrule4e and whoever else playing who has run a game, I’d like to hear thoughts on which scenario you guys think is most likely considering we only started with 9...

If there are two wolves today is already mylo:
5:2 -> lynch villager -> 4:2 -> wolves kill villager -> 3:2 -> lylo
In this scenario village has one mislynch until lylo

If there’s one wolf and one neutral 3P, any number of scenarios could play out but basically we have more time until lylo. Theoretically though, if the wolf doesn’t kill the 3P and village doesn’t lynch the 3P, then the scenario could follow this
5:1:1 -> lynch villager -> 4:1:1-> wolf kills villager -> 3:1:1 -> lynch villager -> 2:1:1 -> lylo
In this scenario village has 2 mislynches until lylo

If there’s only one wolf and no 3P:
6:1 -> lynch villager -> 5:1 -> wolf kills villager -> 4:1 -> lynch villager -> 3:1 -> wolf kills villager -> 2:1 -> lylo
In this scenario village has 2 mislynches until lylo

The first scenario is the only balanced one. Also, that's not mylo.

 

[alissa14]

So in other words we need to get our collective village **** together and I’m ready to help with that because I’m actually here.

 

[Barkley13]

This post weirded me out too. Gave me wolfy feels

Are you talking about my post or 3m’s? Because I was joking and don’t really think that post was sketchy. It was definitely in the realm of what she would post as village

 

[alissa14]

Between the 3?

The first scenario is the only balanced one. Also, that's not mylo.

Between the 3 refers to 3 fruit vendors. 2 village and 1 wolf. Are you sure today isn’t mylo? Do I not understand what mylo is? Lolol

 

[alissa14]

Are you talking about my post or 3m’s? Because I was joking and don’t really think that post was sketchy. It was definitely in the realm of what she would post as village

3Ms but I suppose I don’t have a good feel on 3Ms play style to know what is acceptable within her realm. Good to know

 

[Barkley13]

I’m surprised Stagg flopped town because I thought I was the only town fruit vendor. My guess is whoever sent cubs dates is a wolf fruit vendor. I’m guessing doggo’s ability could determine who the fruit vendors are and maybe use process of elimination between the 3 to figure out which is wolf? Not sure

I already said there’s probably multiple fruit vendors because I received fruit too so this is not totally helpful. What are you reads?

 

[Barkley13]

3Ms but I suppose I don’t have a good feel on 3Ms play style to know what is acceptable within her realm. Good to know

That’s interesting since it’s been discussed many times how 3m says she’s village every game and she’s almost been lynched for it before

 

[alissa14]

I know me claiming a town fruit vendor sounds pretty sketchy but I swear to you all I’m village. I only shared this knowledge because frankly I don’t think it puts a very large target on my back and also considering the fact that we probably don’t have much time to hoard information to ourselves. I’m a town fruit vendor and I sent cubs cherries out of the kindness of my heart. Cherries are my favorite fruit

 

[Animal Midwife]

Between the 3 refers to 3 fruit vendors. 2 village and 1 wolf. Are you sure today isn’t mylo? Do I not understand what mylo is? Lolol

It stands for Mislynch and Lose. The only way you can go from mylo to lylo (ignoring miraculous block/protect night actions) is to no lynch. If you can mislynch and still have the game going the next day, then it's just a normal lynch cycle. Not every lylo is preceded by a mylo.

 

[alissa14]

It stands for Mislynch and Lose. The only way you can go from mylo to lylo (ignoring miraculous block/protect night actions) is to no lynch. If you can mislynch and still have the game going the next day, it's just a normal lynch cycle. Not every lylo is preceded by a mylo.

Yeah I didn’t understand what mylo meant. Okay thanks for the clarification. For some reason I thought mylo just meant the day before lylo

@Barkley13 currently re-reading the thread so I can get reads. my current reads are this:

 

[cubsrule4e]

A combination of others looking wolfier and her posts not seeming different than other games I've played with her.

who are the others that look wolfier besides Mixer?

 

[cubsrule4e]

Based on number of players, how many wolves do you think there are? My gut says there’s only 1 out there because we started with so few... theres maybe a neutral 3P out there but I’m not sure

Wasnt there also a game (Orchestra?) that started with 1 wolf and then a conversion? I think a standard 1 or 2 makes more sense though.

 

[Animal Midwife]

who are the others that look wolfier besides Mixer?

alissa and genny, leaning more heavily towards the latter.

 

[cubsrule4e]

anyone else get fruit besides me and barks?

 

[Animal Midwife]

Wasnt there also a game (Orchestra?) that started with 1 wolf and then a conversion? I think a standard 1 or 2 makes more sense though.

Yes, but that game started with more players + conversion in absence of kill due to its unusualness.

 

[alissa14]

I hate saying this but everyone feels so village-y to me... if I had to choose two players I would say mixy and genny. Mixy because I feel like posts lacked substance and that can be a huge flag for a wolf. Genny because her post about lynching non-posters D1. This rubbed me the wrong way and I’m not sure if genny usually supports this. From my memory I don’t think I’ve ever played a game with her where she supported this but I could be wrong. Gonna go back again and apply my “lack of substance theory” and see what I come up with.

But seriously... if you forgot the game was happening then you werent that interested to begin with

Tbh I always find it helpful when people ping me outside of SDN. I don’t get notifications from SDN. I signed up with a gmail and I have settings to send notifications on but they never go to my actual email. Sometimes I genuinely forget to visit the website and can miss what’s going on. Hence why I missed the first 3 days of my noob game

 

[cubsrule4e]

D2 Official Semi-Circle Fruit Tally

Mixy (1) - AM
Barks (1) - Mixy
Alissa (1) - Cubs

3/7 voting
Missing: @alissa14 @Barkley13 @genny @mmmdreamerz

Deadline: 7PM EST (4 hours)

wait..so when is the actual deadline today? lol

 

[alissa14]

Wasnt there also a game (Orchestra?) that started with 1 wolf and then a conversion? I think a standard 1 or 2 makes more sense though.

Idk orchestra was before my time lol

 

[cubsrule4e]

Animal PercentWife, how sure do you feel about your Mixer read?

 

[Animal Midwife]

Animal PercentWife, how sure do you feel about your Mixer read?

Not really any more sure than my other pushes. Mixy's not someone I consider myself to have a soul read on, if that's what you're asking.

 

[CoffeeQuestionMark]

wait..so when is the actual deadline today? lol

Sorry, 7 my time, 10 est

 

[Animal Midwife]

Tbh I always find it helpful when people ping me outside of SDN. I don’t get notifications from SDN. I signed up with a gmail and I have settings to send notifications on but they never go to my actual email. Sometimes I genuinely forget to visit the website and can miss what’s going on. Hence why I missed the first 3 days of my noob game

Have you tried enabling push notifications?

 

[alissa14]

Have you tried enabling push notifications?

No but I could look into this

 

[cubsrule4e]

Barkley - thoughts on mixy, genny, alissa?

 

[Animal Midwife]

No but I could look into this

I get random popups for it every once in a while but decline (since I get on SDN daily anyway lol).

It's under Preferences on your account.

 

[alissa14]

Animal 20QsWife with all the questions you’ve asked, especially your exchange with mixy, have your reads shifted at all? What are your reads? Questions mean nothing if you don’t share how the answers might make you lean a player one way or the other. You’re famous for asking a ton of questions as a villager, but I’ve yet to see you state what you’ve gotten from the results of your questions. Without this, I see them as empty questions to seem like you’re wolf-hunting when you’re actually not.

 

[cubsrule4e]

so I did some analysis on the numbers...
I’m thinking the second and third scenario are most likely. @Animal Midwife and @cubsrule4e and whoever else playing who has run a game, I’d like to hear thoughts on which scenario you guys think is most likely considering we only started with 9... basically these are all the worst case scenarios

If there are two wolves today is already mylo:
5:2 -> lynch villager -> 4:2 -> wolves kill villager -> 3:2 -> lylo
In this scenario village has one mislynch until lylo

If there’s one wolf and one neutral 3P, any number of scenarios could play out but basically we have more time until lylo. Theoretically though, if the wolf doesn’t kill the 3P and village doesn’t lynch the 3P, then the scenario could follow this
5:1:1 -> lynch villager -> 4:1:1-> wolf kills villager -> 3:1:1 (Edited here because I’m realizing this would be lylo) -> lynch villager -> 2:1:1 -> wolf kills villager -> 1:1:1 wolf and 3P win
In this scenario village has 1 mislynch until lylo

If there’s only one wolf and no 3P:
6:1 -> lynch villager -> 5:1 -> wolf kills villager -> 4:1 -> lynch villager -> 3:1 -> wolf kills villager -> 2:1 -> lylo
In this scenario village has 2 mislynches until lylo

This kinda feels like one of those "i havent been contributing but hey heres a long post about numbers that is semi helpful, but maybe really not, to make up for it" lol... 🤔

 

[Animal Midwife]

Animal 20QsWife with all the questions you’ve asked, especially your exchange with mixy, have your reads shifted at all? What are your reads? Questions mean nothing if you don’t share how the answers might make you lean a player one way or the other. You’re famous for asking a ton of questions as a villager, but I’ve yet to see you state what you’ve gotten from the results of your questions. Without this, I see them as empty questions to seem like you’re wolf-hunting when you’re actually not.

I've already shared my reads twice and that should be evidenced by your first question. Iso me if you want to see them again.

 

[alissa14]

I also am seeing a lack of substance looking at everyone’s posts from genny and 3M. It’s much harder from a wolf POV to create reasons why you think so and so is sketchy because you know they’re actually village. So posts like “so and so seem sketchy” flag as more wolfy to me. As a result I’m changing my top two wolf reads to genny and 3M but I’m pretty comfortable throwing AM and possibly Barks in there too. For now I’m going to

lynch genny

for someone who complained about lack of D1 posting, looking back, I haven’t seen much wolf hunting from genny at all nor have I seen a lot of solid, reasoning-based content

 

[alissa14]

This kinda feels like one of those "i havent been contributing but hey heres a long post about numbers that is semi helpful, but maybe really not, to make up for it" lol... 🤔

Well it was to make up for my lack of participation D1 but hopefully what I’ve contributed so far today will make you feel better

 

[Barkley13]

Barkley - thoughts on mixy, genny, alissa?

Wolfy on alissa, neutral on genny because I’m not seeing enough to lean either way, not sure why mixy wants to lynch me so bad so I don’t know if I’m biased but leaning sketchy

 

[alissa14]

I've already shared my reads twice and that should be evidenced by your first question. Iso me if you want to see them again.

Based on your reads, where do you plan on voting today?

 

[alissa14]

Lol barks always sees me as sketchy. We’re gonna have a real problem if one day we wolf together lol

 

[Animal Midwife]

Based on your reads, where do you plan on voting today?

I'm already voting, alissa.

 

[Barkley13]

Based on your reads, where do you plan on voting today?

Are you asking questions just to ask questions?

 

[alissa14]

I'm already voting, alissa.

Are you asking questions just to ask questions?

No I just missed the tally

 

[CoffeeQuestionMark]

d2 Official Semi-Circle Fruit Tally

Mixy (1) - AM
Barks (1) - Mixy
Alissa (1) - Cubs
Genny (2) - 3m, alissa

5/7 voting
Missing: @Barkley13 @genny

@genny leads

Deadline: 10PM EST (2 hours)

 

[alissa14]

Are you asking questions just to ask questions?

do you plan on dropping a vote? My gut tells me your vote is gonna drop on me and that’s okay. @cubsrule4e do you plan on keeping your vote on me?

 

[alissa14]

Did I scare everyone away? 🙁 thread is so quiet now...

 

[cubsrule4e]

do you plan on dropping a vote? My gut tells me your vote is gonna drop on me and that’s okay. @cubsrule4e do you plan on keeping your vote on me?

Unfortunately I cant answer that yet. Your presence is nice but has yet to do much to dissuade me, especially if there is such a thing as a wolf vendor in play. The one thing in your favor is for some reason I can gut-feel a Mixer/Genny pack, but im not really sold on mixy at all, and Id like to see something from genny today before I decide I want to vote there or not.

 

[Barkley13]

do you plan on dropping a vote? My gut tells me your vote is gonna drop on me and that’s okay. @cubsrule4e do you plan on keeping your vote on me?

I always feel bad about doing it right after a tally
But if you insist

lynch alissa

 

[alissa14]

Unfortunately I cant answer that yet. Your presence is nice but has yet to do much to dissuade me, especially if there is such a thing as a wolf vendor in play. The one thing in your favor is for some reason I can gut-feel a Mixer/Genny pack, but im not really sold on mixy at all, and Id like to see something from genny today before I decide I want to vote there or not.

This is fair. If genny makes her presence known with classic genny snark we all know and love I may be inclined to switch my vote. I will probably switch to either mixy or 3M

 

[alissa14]

I always feel bad about doing it right after a tally
But if you insist

lynch alissa

CALLED IT!!

 

[alissa14]

d2 Official Semi-Circle Fruit Tally

Mixy (1) - AM
Barks (1) - Mixy
Alissa (2) - Cubs, barks
Genny (2) - 3m, alissa

6/7 voting
Missing:@genny

@genny and @alissa14 are tied!!!

Deadline: 10PM EST (2 hours)

[/QUOTE]

 

[alissa14]

I always feel bad about doing it right after a tally
But if you insist

lynch alissa

You realize I’ve outed my role right? Not that it really matters because there’s multiple fruit vendors out there... and based on the numbers discussion I’m a really bad lynch because it just pushes us that much closer to a village loss

 

[Animal Midwife]

Unfortunately I cant answer that yet. Your presence is nice but has yet to do much to dissuade me, especially if there is such a thing as a wolf vendor in play. The one thing in your favor is for some reason I can gut-feel a Mixer/Genny pack, but im not really sold on mixy at all, and Id like to see something from genny today before I decide I want to vote there or not.

What pushed Mixy towards wolfy?

 

[alissa14]

I’m not usually one to push for role reveals. But I think if we mislynch again today, it may be helpful for everyone to reveal what they are and what actions they performed. Yes, I’m aware that wolves can fake claim and I’m also aware this outs PRs but when we are so close to a village loss the info could be useful to solve the game and figure out the wolves

 

[Lawpy]

Day close at 10 PM EST and night close at 10 AM EST going forward. Sorry for any confusion