Stock Market 2022 except we just talk about stocks

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Moonbeams said:
I already stated this, but I went all cash at the end of last year. Briefly moved about 1/3 back in and caught about half the March rally, and have been cash since.

I took positions in GLD, SLV, and GDX last week and added to them today. This is about 10% of my portfolio and my only holdings right now. ~5% is cash secured for puts sold on these 3 positions near the money, and the rest is in cash. I will probably move a decent amount of this into T-bills.

I will probably continue to add to these 3 positions until I get to around 30% or so or until the S&P becomes attractive enough to lump sum invest. In general, I agree with the prevailing sentiment. My goal is to establish a large position in broad market index funds for long term holding that I periodically add to. I have ended up in this weird situation because of the time period when I became an attending, my low cost of living and high savings rate, and cashing out of my house and being forced to rent due to the market leaving me with a large amount of post-tax liquidity. What I don't agree with is that I should just take all this and pinch my nose and buy a bunch of VTI and never look at it again. If I had done that I would be in the situation my colleague is in.

Speculative puts and calls are <1% of my portfolio.

Tax-advantaged accounts are invested in the lowest cost index funds available and are not touched.
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You believe in index investing but also believe in timing the market then? You are in good company but nobody who has been consistent because it is impossible. If it was you should be able to accumulate essentially unlimited money.
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BLADEMDA said:
Don't listen to those who are earning 90th percentile MGMA income (or more) regarding making money in the market. For those few all they need to do is index fund and forget it. The amount they invest is so large each year that even a 5-6% return will result in 30 million dollars by retirement. But, the majority need more than an index fund to retire comfortably. Hence, taking risk is part of your strategy for wealth and it makes sense. By using bear markets to invest heavily into high growth stocks or technology the odds of you winning the retirement game increases dramatically. The next few months is perfect for just such an opportunity as was the Spring of 2020. I am not saying you need to buy options or go 100% into tech but rather skew your portfolio towards growth and technology and buy more in bear markets when possible. We are only in the middle innings of a revolutionary technology boom and you have the chance to truly create wealth by buying the best companies in the world.

I do want to add that inflation coupled with high interest rates hurts growth stocks much more than value stocks. That's why the tech sector has been decimated the past few months. If inflation remains high and the Fed raises rates over 3.5% then growth/tech may suffer much more than value over the next few years. I still think the USA is a great place to invest money in stocks and technology is indeed the future.
Click to expand...
Out of curiosity, what high growth and tech stocks are you adding?
 
Moonbeams said:
I already stated this, but I went all cash at the end of last year. Briefly moved about 1/3 back in and caught about half the March rally, and have been cash since.

I took positions in GLD, SLV, and GDX last week and added to them today. This is about 10% of my portfolio and my only holdings right now. ~5% is cash secured for puts sold on these 3 positions near the money (which I also added to today), and the rest is in cash. I will probably move a decent amount of this into T-bills.

I will probably continue to add to these 3 positions until I get to around 30% or so or until the S&P becomes attractive enough to lump sum invest. In general, I agree with the prevailing sentiment. My goal is to establish a large position in broad market index funds for long term holding that I periodically add to. I have ended up in this weird situation because of the time period when I became an attending, my low cost of living and high savings rate, and cashing out of my house and being forced to rent due to the market leaving me with a large amount of post-tax liquidity. What I don't agree with is that I should just take all this and pinch my nose and buy a bunch of VTI and never look at it again. If I had done that I would be in the situation my colleague is in (which will probably be fine long term, but if we are talking about holding for 30 years something that will have dividends re-invested, it is a big deal due to the nature of compounding if you can be patient and acquire many more shares for the same amount of money by waiting another year or so for the market to correct so that valuations are in better in line with GDP.

Speculative puts and calls are <1% of my portfolio.

Tax-advantaged accounts are invested in the lowest cost index funds available and are not touched.

Bogleheads offends me because
(1) they are annoying and repeat one-liners rather than engaging in conversation about markets (Hey guys, I see you are having a conversation here, I just wanted to interject to quickly comment that I literally don't care about any of this because I am so smart because I just "VTSAX and chill"),
(2) their premise is fundamentally flawed as it is based on past performance predicting future performance
(3) they not only criticize but actively mock people who choose to be conservative with their money including (for instance those who save in cash and CDs), and
(4) the moderation on their forums is extreme, biased, and conversation is directed/coaxed by these moderators who appear to have no life or discernable personality to qualify as a human (count me among the many who have been banned for something trivial).
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I hope you practice medicine based on more evidence than you "invest" with.
 
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Mman said:
I hope you practice medicine based on more evidence than you "invest" with.
Click to expand...

Congrats, you managed to hit my points #1, #2, and #3 about bogleheads with your reply!
Masterfully demonstrated.
 
Moonbeams said:
Bogleheads offends me because
(1) they are annoying and repeat one-liners rather than engaging in conversation about markets (Hey guys, I see you are having a conversation here, I just wanted to interject to quickly comment that I literally don't care about any of this because I am so smart because I just "VTSAX and chill"),
(2) their premise is fundamentally flawed as it is based on past performance predicting future performance
(3) they not only criticize but actively mock people who choose to be conservative with their money including (for instance those who save in cash and CDs), and
(4) the moderation on their forums is extreme, biased, and conversation is directed/coaxed by these moderators who appear to have no life or discernable personality to qualify as a human (count me among the many who have been banned for something trivial).
Click to expand...

Based on this statement I do not think you understand their beliefs. Their premise is not 'based on past performance.' Their premise is that unless you have insider trading knowledge you don't know **** and thus can't predict markets any better than anyone else. Markets are unpredictable and irrational and thus can't be predicted. As a result they believe the winning strategy in that scenario is simply not to play and roll investments in regardless of timing. You can disagree and think you can time the market but literally nobody in history has done this successfully with consistency and beaten passive investing. Sure someone might be able to do so in the future and thus accumulate all of the money in the market but I wouldn't bet on it.

Also #3 is nonsense and shows you actually didn't learn anything in 2008--the conservative approach is finding a ratio within risk tolerance and accumulating at that ratio consistently. Market timing and pulling all of your money in and out of the market in short term moves is very aggressive.

I agree with #4 and stopped visiting their forum some time ago as a result but the ideology is not the same as the forum.
 
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Moonbeams said:
Congrats, you managed to hit my points #1, #2, and #3 about bogleheads with your reply!
Masterfully demonstrated.
Click to expand...

i agree.

many people consistently beat the market. people keep quoting hedge funds overall returns and stuff. but its far more difficult to beat index if you are managing 50B dollars than 500k. even Medallion fund has beaten Sp500 by A LARGE margin
 
Moonbeams said:
I already stated this, but I went all cash at the end of last year. Briefly moved about 1/3 back in and caught about half the March rally, and have been cash since.

I took positions in GLD, SLV, and GDX last week and added to them today. This is about 10% of my portfolio and my only holdings right now. ~5% is cash secured for puts sold on these 3 positions near the money (which I also added to today), and the rest is in cash. I will probably move a decent amount of this into T-bills.

I will probably continue to add to these 3 positions until I get to around 30% or so or until the S&P becomes attractive enough to lump sum invest. In general, I agree with the prevailing sentiment. My goal is to establish a large position in broad market index funds for long term holding that I periodically add to. I have ended up in this weird situation because of the time period when I became an attending, my low cost of living and high savings rate, and cashing out of my house and being forced to rent due to the market leaving me with a large amount of post-tax liquidity. What I don't agree with is that I should just take all this and pinch my nose and buy a bunch of VTI and never look at it again. If I had done that I would be in the situation my colleague is in (which will probably be fine long term, but if we are talking about holding for 30 years something that will have dividends re-invested, it is a big deal due to the nature of compounding if you can be patient and acquire many more shares for the same amount of money by waiting another year or so for the market to correct so that valuations are in better in line with GDP.

Speculative puts and calls are <1% of my portfolio.

Tax-advantaged accounts are invested in the lowest cost index funds available and are not touched.

Bogleheads offends me because
(1) they are annoying and repeat one-liners rather than engaging in conversation about markets (Hey guys, I see you are having a conversation here, I just wanted to interject to quickly comment that I literally don't care about any of this because I am so smart because I just "VTSAX and chill"),
(2) their premise is fundamentally flawed as it is based on past performance predicting future performance
(3) they not only criticize but actively mock people who choose to be conservative with their money including (for instance those who save in cash and CDs), and
(4) the moderation on their forums is extreme, biased, and conversation is directed/coaxed by these moderators who appear to have no life or discernable personality to qualify as a human (count me among the many who have been banned for something trivial).
Click to expand...

how low are you going to wait . or are you just wiating for consolidation ?
 
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anbuitachi said:
i agree.

many people consistently beat the market. people keep quoting hedge funds overall returns and stuff. but its far more difficult to beat index if you are managing 50B dollars than 500k. even Medallion fund has beaten Sp500 by A LARGE margin
Click to expand...
Sure over certain time periods. Then they don't in other time periods. The problem is for your investing horizon how do you know which ones will outperform?
 
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Moonbeams said:
This is what the boglehead cult does. They strawman the hell out of people who don't drink their kool-aid. Nothing I have posted above is unreasonable.
Click to expand...
Blasphemer...heretic...Infidel.
 
Have a feeling the market will rally from now until the open based on how the futures are looking but once the market opens there will be a lot of selling and the market will be red before the close

Edit: nasdaq futures already down 89 basis points from highs
 
Last edited:
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okayplayer said:
To all of the market timers: where was your post in Dec 2021 telling us about this impending recession? Maybe I missed it?
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I said the words “bear market” in December and got pooped on in here. You guys are very judgy.
 
voxveritatisetlucis said:
Have a feeling the market will rally from now until the open based on how the futures are looking but once the market opens there will be a lot of selling and the market will be red before the close

Edit: nasdaq futures already down 89 basis points from highs
Click to expand...
The good news: If the market drops 2% a day, each day you lose less money than the previous day.
 
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I’d be curious if anyone here bought Rivian and what their outlook is now that Ford dumped their stake? Amazon still has a large purchase order in, but the company needs production. Stock has taken a major beating since January. But Tesla did too early on.
 
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staple said:
I’d be curious if anyone here bought Rivian and what their outlook is now that Ford dumped their stake? Amazon still has a large purchase order in, but the company needs production. Stock has taken a major beating since January. But Tesla did too early on.
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I bought a about 2000$ in rivian at ipo prices so I'm hurting a bit. I'm going to long hold and maybe buy some at a discount. Current production issues aside (a problem most companies are also dealing with), I think there is a lot going for it and thr backing of Amazon makes me feel some assurance.
 
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RadOncDoc21 said:
I said the words “bear market” in December and got pooped on in here. You guys are very judgy.
Click to expand...
Not talking to you directly, but inderstand that people like Cramer call the “top” all the time. There is an entire industry devoted to producing articles and TV to scare people into thinking there is an impending stock market crash.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day..
 
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coffeebythelake said:
I bought a about 2000$ in rivian at ipo prices so I'm hurting a bit. I'm going to long hold and maybe buy some at a discount. Current production issues aside (a problem most companies are also dealing with), I think there is a lot going for it and thr backing of Amazon makes me feel some assurance.
Click to expand...

Ford dumping their stake seemed like a short term way to mitigate loss. But rivian trucks are in production and a few are appearing in our city. They look infinitely better than the Tesla truck (fact, not opinion) and we all know how hot the truck market is.

I think I'm about to invest a bit in just as play money. Who knows. $23 seems like a phenomenal entry point, assuming they can turn it around
 
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I’m just sitting on the sidelines for now.
 
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Moonbeams said:
Congrats, you managed to hit my points #1, #2, and #3 about bogleheads with your reply!
Masterfully demonstrated.
Click to expand...

I don't think you actually understand what the best scientific evidence shows in regards to investing.
 
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I always think that one should go in little by little as the market drops because it never seems to get as low as most people expect
 
just overheard radio news regarding California's initiative to go primarily electric in 20 years, anyone here invest in such ETFs like LIT?
 
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No, I only invest in oil and gas for energy because the multiples on almost every electrical green energy company are too high. If they were more fairly valued I would probably invest
 
Mman said:
I don't think you actually understand what the best scientific evidence shows in regards to investing.
Click to expand...

Tell me more about how scientific evidence backtesting predicts the future, boglehead.
 
okayplayer said:
To all of the market timers: where was your post in Dec 2021 telling us about this impending recession? Maybe I missed it?
Click to expand...

Considering this thread started end of January 2022, best I can do for you...

forums.studentdoctor.net

Stock Market 2022 except we just talk about stocks

On the topic of suboptimal and on the topic of eating, I spent $23 on this. Inflation….yeesh At least you didn’t get it delivered. Easily would have been 40+ dollars.
forums.studentdoctor.net forums.studentdoctor.net
 
I'll see your 2022 and raise you 2019. Lots of fun "predictions" to look at

forums.studentdoctor.net

The ultimate COVID thread

So to the investment gurus out there, do you see this as a significant event, are you just going to ride this out or are you altering your investments expecting a downturn?
forums.studentdoctor.net forums.studentdoctor.net
 
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I am not a pessimist on the US Stock market. Not at all. But, a recession does look likely this year. Typically, stocks don't do well in a recession so the market is pricing that in for this year. I don't see how any rally is sustainable with inflation at 8% and interest rates being hiked another full point. Jim Cramer thinks the Fed may get scared and only raise interest rates 1 or 2 more times. I don't know if that will be enough to avoid 6-18 months of stagflation.

Despite this belief about a recession I also think we will come out of it with a strong market rally once the economy turns around. But, I doubt that will occur in 2022. I recommend equities at these prices because if you have 5 years until you need the money the odds heavily favor significant gains from here.
 
KEY POINTS
  • The so-called rule of 72 is a rule of thumb investors often use to gauge how quickly their money will double in value.
  • The rule also works with inflation, but in reverse: It approximates the length of time for money to lose half its value.
  • If April’s 8.3% inflation rate were to remain constant, it would take just nine years.
 
In times of turmoil there are only 2 liquid assets worth holding: Cash and Gold

Crypto isn't Gold and is very volatile. Gold is the only liquid asset which may hold up against inflation while still being easily converted into currency. Gold held as an ETF is cheap and easy to buy. Gold as a coin isn't as cheap but also easily converted into currency.

www.cnbc.com

Controversial stablecoin UST — which is meant to be pegged to the dollar — plummets below 30 cents

UST, a so-called stablecoin that's meant to maintain a $1 peg, was trading at less than 40 cents Wednesday.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

The results show that gold ranks high on these metrics and in this environment
Our results in Table 1 and Table 2 show that Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and TIPS are the most consistent hedges against inflation and have provided the highest average returns. Gold ranks third in rising environments and second in persistently high environments. While gold is not top in all individual categories, it does quite well collectively. Averaging across all metrics, gold ranks consistently well either as first or joint second, depending on which inflation environment we select.
 
1652298410521.png


2002 is about Quality at a Fair price
 
I started using a bit of margin today 5% and it is hard to see the red everyday. But I feel like this is why most people lose money in the market..they sell when the going gets tough and then don’t buy again until prices are too high
 
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I’ve been buying but literally bleeding out my ass. I think I invested actual dimes and nickels into the market yesterday.
 
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