Stock Market 2022 except we just talk about stocks

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You don't need to find the exact bottom. Let's say S and P 500 bottoms at 3698. Anyone who buys blue chip stocks below 3900 and holds for just 2-3 years is going to do well. If we are in a recession, likely, then the summer won't exactly be good for stocks either. Be patient and try not to buy low quality names until the economy shows signs of a recovery. Use these next 3-6 months to acquire great companies at discounted prices.

I still buy the S and P 500. But, I can't help but add to my positions in MSFT, NVidia, AMD and AMZN.
 
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Moonbeams said:
Tell me more about how scientific evidence backtesting predicts the future, boglehead.
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I have never visited the bogleheads forum, but find it funny that you get so triggered.

You either accept market returns or try to actively beat them. The list of humans and machines that can consistently beat the market gets smaller the longer the duration you measure. And over the length of an average career investing, well let's just say math isn't on your side.
 
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Dr. Rude said:
Care to share at what point. Please let us know when you load up.
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i think there is a lot of recession talk which is still being digested. i think there is still some downward movement to go, but a lot of my existing red stocks are tech heavy and i don't think they are going to go down that much more. SOFI, BYND, RDFN, EVs, etc. many of them are already down 60-80%. i'm slowly buying in sp500 etfs (e.g. SPY), small bits of MSFT, META, GOOGL, to DCA, and holding on some extra cash for now. i also have some real estate investments that i'm holding on to for now in areas that are very tight housing markets which i think might hold reasonable in value
 
Good strategy. I’ve always found buying on the way down easier than on the way up. I am long real estate, but if you wanted to sell real estate for equities at this point in time I wouldn’t fault you.
 
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I think that now is a good time to load up on me energy transfer. Bought 500 more shares I’m past few days. JPM, BAML reiterated 15 dollar targets, UBS upgraded to 20
 
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BLADEMDA said:
You don't need to find the exact bottom. Let's say S and P 500 bottoms at 3698. Anyone who buys blue chip stocks below 3900 and holds for just 2-3 years is going to do well. If we are in a recession, likely, then the summer won't exactly be good for stocks either. Be patient and try not to buy low quality names until the economy shows signs of a recovery. Use these next 3-6 months to acquire great companies at discounted prices.

I still buy the S and P 500. But, I can't help but add to my positions in MSFT, NVidia, AMD and AMZN.
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Guess the bottom blade. I think we have another 15% downside
 
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okayplayer said:
To all of the market timers: where was your post in Dec 2021 telling us about this impending recession? Maybe I missed it?
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GO TO POST 591. I TRIED TELLING YOU ALL ON JANUARY 1ST. NEXT WILL BE THE HOUSING MARKET CRASH.

QUOTED FROM JANUARY 1ST 2022:

gasresident1 said:
The rest of the decade will be value stocks. Tech bubble will burst. SP 500 and Nasdaq will dip. The dot com burst will recur though maybe more gradually this time. History will repeat. Switch to value stocks now and maybe even some SQQQ, and when tech crumbles, slowly buy QQQ and even TQQQ to have capital investment. Make a boat load when it is large cap growth again around 2030.
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okayplayer said:
To all of the market timers: where was your post in Dec 2021 telling us about this impending recession? Maybe I missed it?
Click to expand...
 
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nopain1234 said:
Guess the bottom blade. I think we have another 15% downside
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My bottom target is aapl 100$, costco 350$. Why costco has a PE 39? It is a slow growth, low profit margin company. Meanwhile, target has a PE of 15.
 
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At least 1/2 of all your investable equity money should be in an index fund like the S and P 500 or VTI. The other 1/2 can be invested as you see fit across sectors and individual ETFs or companies. Some of us, myself included, like owning particular stocks for the long term. I am not an options trader but I do think the market bottoms around 3700. That means you can begin buying the market or individual stocks right here but not on "up days" as those are just bear market rallies. I am hopeful this bear market only lasts 6 months but realistically it could be 18-24 months.
 
ambiturner said:
…so the last thread got a bit off topic but the dip is deepening with potential for more this week with Tesla earnings coming out. Where is the bottom?

To me the past 2 years look eerily similar to the lead up to 70s stagflation. Will this be 1973?
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The combination of inflation, increasing interest rates in an overvalued housing market, and increased energy prices are very likely going to lead to a U-shaped recession similar to 1973. I've been saying for the last year this was coming, and things are probably going to bottom out between 40 anf 50% off of their highs. We're looking at an 18-24 month period of serious recession followed by a slow burn back to regular economic activity that likely takes 5-6 years. After that, things will probably be very good for a couple of decades, as this is a long-overdo working out of kinks in the system that are blatantly obvious to anyone with an understanding of basic market fundamentals. That's my prediction, anyway. Probably looking at 5% average inflation over the next 6 years with it weighted heavy on the first few years (7% tapering down to 3% or so over time).
 
GravelRider said:
Stop trying to actively pick stocks. It’s boring and not worth your time. The people who call themselves “experts” aren’t even very good at it.

Forget Motley Fool. Do this instead:
www.bogleheads.org

Bogleheads

www.bogleheads.org www.bogleheads.org
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Picking stocks is fine as long as you accept that it is gambling and a hobby more than it is sound investing. If you're banking in it for your future, you're a fool. I index 90% of my assets and have fun with the remaining 10% as a hobby.
 
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Mad Jack said:
Picking stocks is fine as long as you accept that it is gambling and a hobby more than it is sound investing. If you're banking in it for your future, you're a fool. I index 90% of my assets and have fun with the remaining 10% as a hobby.
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buffet disagrees. he doesnt do index. he believes in picking stocks. yet hes often called one of the greatest investors of all time.
 
anbuitachi said:
buffet disagrees. he doesnt do index. he believes in picking stocks. yet hes often called one of the greatest investors of all time.
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He is a 99.99th percentile person.
 
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Mad Jack said:
Picking stocks is fine as long as you accept that it is gambling and a hobby more than it is sound investing. If you're banking in it for your future, you're a fool. I index 90% of my assets and have fun with the remaining 10% as a hobby.
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I like DraftKings more. At least Vegas gives me the odds.
 
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It’s not active picking that is bad per se, it’s over concentration.

One can be successful picking individual stocks, but he or she should have 70 or more names. This takes either a lot of effort or a computer program to monitor.

I use a program I wrote to automatically send me updates re news stories, upgrades/downgrades, etc.
 
voxveritatisetlucis said:
It’s not active picking that is bad per se, it’s over concentration.

One can be successful picking individual stocks, but he or she should have 70 or more names. This takes either a lot of effort or a computer program to monitor.

I use a program I wrote to automatically send me updates re news stories, upgrades/downgrades, etc.
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I am sure that armed with those tools, you can compete with people who work full time at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, et al who do this for a living all day every day who probably have a few more tools at their disposal. Not to mention the Corporate CFOs and their colleagues.
 
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anbuitachi said:
buffet disagrees. he doesnt do index. he believes in picking stocks. yet hes often called one of the greatest investors of all time.
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If you like Buffett, it is a heck of a lot easier to buy Buffett (BRKA and BRKB) than it is to emulate him.
 
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I always find it fascinating how the “market” seems to act all at the same time. It’s truly not random in my mind but what do I know.
 
RadOncDoc21 said:
I always find it fascinating how the “market” seems to act all at the same time. It’s truly not random in my mind but what do I know.
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I agree. I mean, I engage in counter-cyclical index investing and do fairly well with it. I've got my base contributions that always go in and when a downturn starts to hit I double my contributions. When other people panic and run, I double down, when the general market is content, I pull back to baseline contributions. I beat the market by a good deal during COVID by investing additional funds in energy, and crushed thr market in the 2008 recession by piling in every dollar I could as things got progressively worse then rebounded spectacularly.

Still, most of my investments are in large cyclical areas like commodities and indexes, where the only real penalty to investment is you may have to wait longer for a cycle to churn if you time it wrong to make a profit.
 
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anbuitachi said:
buffet disagrees. he doesnt do index. he believes in picking stocks. yet hes often called one of the greatest investors of all time.
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Yeah but he's not a doctor for his full time job and "stock picking" on the side, he has the money to become a majority shareholder for companies and sit on their boards, helping to ensure their success, and he's not doing a bunch of day trading. He's doing deep research about companies and their finances before he buys: not going on the whims of reddit pages and SDN recommendations.

Buffet even said when he dies, he wants the money for his wife to be 90% in a low cost SP500 index fund and 10% bonds. He specifically recommends index funds to ALMOST everyone.
 
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We’ll see how this all shakes out… but…. buy when people are selling. Finland/Sweden are big geopolitical moves that will have an affect on the market.
 
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Don’t want to turn this into a ukraine thread but boy….
Putin has really shot himself in the foot.
 
nimbus said:
If you like Buffett, it is a heck of a lot easier to buy Buffett (BRKA and BRKB) than it is to emulate him.
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I believe a lot of people buy because of buffet and his management. However a big risk IMO is his age. we dont know how the market will react after he passes
 
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Bought a bunch of tech the last few days.
Also a good entry point for some tax free 5.5% yield.
 
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anbuitachi said:
I believe a lot of people buy because of buffet and his management. However a big risk IMO is his age. we dont know how the market will react after he passes
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Actually one of the nice things about Berkshire is that most of the companies act autonomously. His lieutenants who trade are pretty good and obviously are bought in since they make so much less than they would elsewhere
 
Mad Jack said:
The combination of inflation, increasing interest rates in an overvalued housing market, and increased energy prices are very likely going to lead to a U-shaped recession similar to 1973. I've been saying for the last year this was coming, and things are probably going to bottom out between 40 anf 50% off of their highs. We're looking at an 18-24 month period of serious recession followed by a slow burn back to regular economic activity that likely takes 5-6 years. After that, things will probably be very good for a couple of decades, as this is a long-overdo working out of kinks in the system that are blatantly obvious to anyone with an understanding of basic market fundamentals. That's my prediction, anyway. Probably looking at 5% average inflation over the next 6 years with it weighted heavy on the first few years (7% tapering down to 3% or so over time).
Click to expand...

What are your favorite/best resources to learn these basic market fundamentals? Thank you
 
Zendo said:
What are your favorite/best resources to learn these basic market fundamentals? Thank you
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I was a business and finance major back in the day (that didn't last long, on account of realizing that business was a hill of bastards built on a foundation of even more bastards) and used to read a lot of books on the topic even after switching academic gears in undergrad.

For just basic introductions to markets and trading, I recommend A Random Walk Down Wall Street. My personal style focuses heavily on investment strategies that are basically those described in The Intelligent Investor. For someone that is serious about analysis I highly recommend Murphy, it's easy to understand and really covers all the basics, and you can get a new hardcover copy for like fifty bucks on Amazon. Seeking Alpha is actually a pretty decent resource for laypeople to understand basic financial concepts if you come across terminology you don't understand or concepts you want to learn a bit about quickly. Regularly reading a broad analysis of the market from numerous sources (Bloomberg, WSJ, Marketwatch, Barron's, etc) and looking at the reports for the market overall and individual stocks can give you a feel for how the fundamentals apply to the market at large once you learn them.

Amazon product

Amazon product

Amazon product
 
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pastafan said:
Up to 55% of its managed assets may be in securities rated BBB and below at the time of purchase...

Isn't that risky for 5.8% return?
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Nah… I’ve bought/sold nzf for years.
5.8% that isn’t taxed.
Way better than a CD or savings account.
It’s currently near a 10 year low. I’m comfortable w that.
 
RadOncDoc21 said:
I always find it fascinating how the “market” seems to act all at the same time. It’s truly not random in my mind but what do I know.
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You are correct. The market is only "rational" over the long term. That means there are periods of irrationality to the upside and the downside. Buffet buys COMPANIES when the market punishes them. He bought Bank Of America for $6 per share.

We can take advantage of irrationality by NOT buying as much during periods of very high P/E multiples and putting the cash to the side. Then, when the market corrects too far to the downside we buy stocks like Buffet would do. The gurus on here will tell you that is "market timing" but Morningstar calls it "Fair Value" and once stocks break 1.2 stop buying them. Then when they fall back to 0.80 or less buy a lot more. How hard is that? Backtest this for the past 20 years and you would make significantly higher returns than Mr. Market.

I can provide you example after example of just such cases. This is reversion to the mean and it is a fact. The question is do you have the intelligence and the fortitude to take advantage of it. This is just such a time.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
You are correct. The market is only "rational" over the long term. That means there are periods of irrationality to the upside and the downside. Buffet buys COMPANIES when the market punishes them. He bought Bank Of America for $6 per share.

We can take advantage of irrationality by NOT buying as much during periods of very high P/E multiples and putting the cash to the side. Then, when the market corrects too far to the downside we buy stocks like Buffet would do. The gurus on here will tell you that is "market timing" but Morningstar calls it "Fair Value" and once stocks break 1.2 stop buying them. Then when they fall back to 0.80 or less buy a lot more. How hard is that? Backtest this for the past 20 years and you would make significantly higher returns than Mr. Market.

I can provide you example after example of just such cases. This is reversion to the mean and it is a fact. The question is do you have the intelligence and the fortitude to take advantage of it. This is just such a time.
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Does this strategy need to be individual stocks or can it be a broad based index such as S&P 500 or total US market? I have had large cash position and I'm trying to figure out how/when to put it to work.
 
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