Stranger Things Part 2 - WW Game Thread

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genny said:
either way, no matter what i say, you have to decide whether you think i'm truthful. so make up your mind. vis isn't in the poe.
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You haven't said anything is the problem.

If that's all we have to say to be trusted, then I proudly announce that I'm not in the POE either.
 
Animal Midwife said:
Again, all abilities but one are NAI. No exceptions. I don't know if a wolf has ever had the ability, but I've seen them cancel night intentionally through an item for cred. The key then was that the cancel was used with weird timing. I do wish True had used it N1, but this is the second best time he could have done it. I'm not village reading him off of the ability. I'm village reading him for the usage of said ability.
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What about the timing is specifically village?
 
Animal Midwife said:
That's why it's second best to me. If you didn't use it tonight, and Barks didn't successfully protect someone, we'd be in yolo. (Thus borderline disabling your ability altogether.)
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Surely if Barks is telling the truth wolves would just have killed her last night, though? I’m assuming no self-protection.

Scenario: wolf true, village protector barks
4 v to 2 w at EOD2
>True cancels N -> 4 v to 2 w at SOD3
>>correct yeet -> 4 v to 1 w at EOD3
>>>wolves kill barks -> 3 v to 1 w at SOD4 (MYLO)

>>misyeet -> 3 v to 2 w at EOD3
>>>wolves kill Barks -> wolf win

>True does not cancel N
>>Wolves kill barks -> 3 v to 2 w SOD3
>>>misyeet -> wolf win

>>>correct yeet -> 3 v to 1 w EOD3
>>>>True cancels night -> 3 v to 1 w SOD4 (MYLO)

>>>>wolves kill -> 2 v to 1 w SOD4 (MARVOLO)
 
Viscernable said:
Surely if Barks is telling the truth wolves would just have killed her last night, though? I’m assuming no self-protection.

Scenario: wolf true, village protector barks
4 v to 2 w at EOD2
>True cancels N -> 4 v to 2 w at SOD3
>>correct yeet -> 4 v to 1 w at EOD3
>>>wolves kill barks -> 3 v to 1 w at SOD4 (MYLO)

>>misyeet -> 3 v to 2 w at EOD3
>>>wolves kill Barks -> wolf win

>True does not cancel N
>>Wolves kill barks -> 3 v to 2 w SOD3
>>>misyeet -> wolf win

>>>correct yeet -> 3 v to 1 w EOD3
>>>>True cancels night -> 3 v to 1 w SOD4 (MYLO)

>>>>wolves kill -> 2 v to 1 w SOD4 (MARVOLO)
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Night was cancelled. Wolves couldn't do anything even if they wanted to.
 
I'm also not sure how those numbers counteract what I said about us being better off with True using the cancel, especially if Barks is village.
 
Animal Midwife said:
I'm also not sure how those numbers counteract what I said about us being better off with True using the cancel, especially if Barks is village.
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I don’t understand what you’re saying, can you walk through it?
 
Animal Midwife said:
Ignoring everything, if there's more than one wolf on the board, village loses. If there's a villager voting another villager we lose. You splitting the vote is fostering those environments.
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I don’t think we’re on majority rules though? Correct me if I’m wrong
 
Viscernable said:
I don’t understand what you’re saying, can you walk through it?
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If Barks fails to protect, we have three villagers alive today. True's cancel guarenteed that we'd have four village voices.

If we misyeet today, village!Barks can potentially save someone, allowing us two yeets to get it right instead of one.

If we yeet correctly today, and wolves kill village!Barks, she's taken out of the POE, meaning True survives as a clear leaving an extremely narrow POE if the last wolf isn't just outted.

If we yeet correctly today and Barks is a wolf, she'll be forced to kill in the POE or else explain why she wasn't protecting someone we decided was top village.

These are all better scenarios than the instaloss that comes with a single error in F5.
 
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Viscernable said:
I don’t think we’re on majority rules though? Correct me if I’m wrong
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We are not, but I can say from the four years that I have had to repeat this, people don't come back and wolves win because the wagons were left split. (Or, my all time favorite, "I was planning to switch but I was too slow..."). That quote is paraphrased from the last Stranger Things.

If I'm wolf with alley, that means alley is a wolf. So the only option would to be to vote with your village reads, which, according to genny, is you without a doubt.
 
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genny said:
i'm just trying to move things along to get you to actually hunt some wolves, instead of trying to dismantle the village bloc.
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Making arguments for why it makes zero sense for you to not vote alley is dismantling the village bloc now? You need to keep track of your arguments, or at least quit reloading your gun, if you want to stop shooting yourself in the foot.
 
genny said:
we can't have 2 wagons?
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No, genny. You've played with me for over four years and I shouldn't have to repeat this to you again, because you already know what I'm going to say, but I'll do it for those who've never been in mylo before.

Everyone, start reading here. These are the last two phases of Stranger Things. It may also be topical in the sense that genny was playing this too. If you have more questions splitting villagers across more than one wagon, let me know.
forums.studentdoctor.net

Stranger Things WW Game Thread

@genny HELLO! :hello:
forums.studentdoctor.net forums.studentdoctor.net
 
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Animal Midwife said:
If Barks fails to protect, we have three villagers alive today. True's cancel guarenteed that we'd have four village voices.

If we misyeet today, village!Barks can potentially save someone, allowing us two yeets to get it right instead of one.

If we yeet correctly today, and wolves kill village!Barks, she's taken out of the POE, meaning True survives as a clear leaving an extremely narrow POE if the last wolf isn't just outted.

If we yeet correctly today and Barks is a wolf, she'll be forced to kill in the POE or else explain why she wasn't protecting someone we decided was top village.

These are all better scenarios than the instaloss that comes with a single error in F5.
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I just don’t see the scenario of wolves killing someone other than village!barks (and therefore us getting another day if she protects correctly) as even remotely likely, meaning whether True would night cancel or not, there would be the same number of cycles. And you would get the same extra cycle if True hadn’t night canceled N2, Barks successfully protected, and then True night canceled N3. It’s not much more likely that Barks would successfully protect N3 than that she would N2 (one less person for her to choose from, but the pool of likely wolfkills and the pool of likely D3 yeets has little overlap, so it’s pretty much the same odds imo), so I really don’t see why it’s more advantageous to village to night cancel N2 than N3 from a purely numbers standpoint.

It is a fair point that wolves should really want to get rid of problematic village voices at endgame so having 4 instead of 3 village voices is actually a real sacrifice for them. I still don’t agree with what you’re saying about numbers tho.
 
Viscernable said:
I just don’t see the scenario of wolves killing someone other than village!barks (and therefore us getting another day if she protects correctly) as even remotely likely, meaning whether True would night cancel or not, there would be the same number of cycles. And you would get the same extra if True hadn’t night canceled N2, Barks successfully protected, and then True night canceled N3. It’s not much more likely that Barks would successfully protect N3 than that she would N2 (one less person for her to choose from, but the pool of likely wolfkills and the pool of likely D3 yeets has little overlap, so it’s pretty much the same odds imo), so I really don’t see why it’s more advantageous to village to night cancel N2 than N3 from a purely numbers standpoint.

It is a fair point that wolves should really want to get rid of problematic village voices at endgame so having 4 instead of 3 village voices is actually a real sacrifice for them. I still don’t agree with what you’re saying about numbers tho.
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Can you tell me how Barks can protect N3 if the game ends on D3?
 
I ran the numbers and decided that it doesn’t matter at this point if people know (or like, the cons are minimal compared to benefit of people knowing genny and I can mostly clear each other. It’s not a 100% mechanical clear but it’s close)
 
Viscernable said:
I ran the numbers and decided that it doesn’t matter at this point if people know (or like, the cons are minimal compared to benefit of people knowing genny and I can mostly clear each other. It’s not a 100% mechanical clear but it’s close)
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I'd love to hear about it.
 
Animal Midwife said:
Can you tell me how Barks can protect N3 if the game ends on D3?
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So, game would only end D3 if she protected incorrectly N2 and we misyeeted D3. If True night cancelled N2, we misyeeted, and she protected incorrectly N3, the game would also be over then. I’ve explained why I don’t see it as more likely for her to protect correctly on N3 after N2 cancelled than for her to protect correctly on N2, do you disagree with my reasoning there?
 
Viscernable said:
So, game would only end D3 if she protected incorrectly N2 and we misyeeted D3. If True night cancelled N2, we misyeeted, and she protected incorrectly N3, the game would also be over then. I’ve explained why I don’t see it as more likely for her to protect correctly on N3 after N2 cancelled than for her to protect correctly on N2, do you disagree with my reasoning there?
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I do. Even if your numbers are correct that she is more likely to fail on N3 than N2, three things have to be rememebered:

1. She could still fail N2. If she does, we're in F5 not F6. True can only use his ability in this scenario IF we vote right (assuming he isn't POE'd and voted out for holstering the whole game).

2. The fact that we can even have a N3 to allow Barks to shine is mechanically the same as your N2 protect, N3 cancel scenario. The only difference is we can afford to misyeet once in this world.

3. True basically cleared himself as a living player which wouldn't otherwise be possible unless he exactly was attacked and protected by Barks.
 
So little Mike was flopping around the woods behind his yard looking for salamanders and ****, and found a bald girl who was even cooler than salamanders. And he wasn’t sure about this **** but it mechanically seemed way bastard for her to be wolf in a game this size given the info he has from the role pm, so they looked at each other and said “****, we’ve got each other, but we’re gonna get misyeeted”, and then looked on in amazement as they were both village read for once. And he was like whoa whoa whoa let’s try not to get her NKed here, but had no energy to pretend to be particularly sus of her, so threw out some mentions of it being possible she was wolf.
 
Viscernable said:
So little Mike was flopping around the woods behind his yard looking for salamanders and ****, and found a bald girl who was even cooler than salamanders. And he wasn’t sure about this **** but it mechanically seemed way bastard for her to be wolf in a game this size given the info he has from the role pm, so they looked at each other and said “****, we’ve got each other, but we’re gonna get misyeeted”, and then looked on in amazement as they were both village read for once. And he was like whoa whoa whoa let’s try not to get her NKed here, but had no energy to pretend to be particularly sus of her, so threw out some mentions of it being possible she was wolf.
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I'm getting confused. Are you guys already connected? I thought you were blocked somehow.
 
Animal Midwife said:
I do. Even if your numbers are correct that she is more likely to fail on N3 than N2, three things have to be rememebered:

1. She could still fail N2. If she does, we're in F5 not F6. True can only use his ability in this scenario IF we vote right (assuming he isn't POE'd and voted out for holstering the whole game).

2. The fact that we can even have a N3 to allow Barks to shine is mechanically the same as your N2 protect, N3 cancel scenario. The only difference is we can afford to misyeet once in this world.

3. True basically cleared himself as a living player which wouldn't otherwise be possible unless he exactly was attacked and protected by Barks.
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1. I’ve discussed why this isn’t actually a difference. For us to get an extra chance after a misyeet, we need Barks to correctly protect on the first night she has a chance, whether that’s N2 (if True waits to cancel until N3) or whether that’s N3 (if True cancels N2)

2. This forst sentence is exactly what I’m saying. The second sentence is false, the N2 protect N3 cancel also gives us a chance to misyeet.

3. This is circular reasoning. True is cleared by night canceling because night canceling clears him, and it’s advantageous to village for villagers to be cleared. Um, it’s also advantageous to wolves for them to “clear” themselves, not so much to village… so I have no idea how this makes choosing to night cancel on N2 instead of N3 distinctly village
 
Viscernable said:
1. I’ve discussed why this isn’t actually a difference. For us to get an extra chance after a misyeet, we need Barks to correctly protect on the first night she has a chance, whether that’s N2 (if True waits to cancel until N3) or whether that’s N3 (if True cancels N2)
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But, as I mentioned, Barks can still miss N2. And if she misses N2, we have to be perfect. A misyeet here will not instantly lead to a loss (and no chance for True ability) unless it's exactly wolf!Barks. If it's wolf!Barks anyway though, we were never saving anyone N2 so it's a moot point.
Viscernable said:
2. This forst sentence is exactly what I’m saying. The second sentence is false, the N2 protect N3 cancel also gives us a chance to misyeet.
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Consider the world where Barks fails to protect N2. What does that world look like? True was guarenteed to never fail.
Viscernable said:
3. This is circular reasoning. True is cleared by night canceling because night canceling clears him, and it’s advantageous to village for villagers to be cleared. Um, it’s also advantageous to wolves for them to “clear” themselves, not so much to village… so I have no idea how this makes choosing to night cancel on N2 instead of N3 distinctly village
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BECAUSE THERE'S NO GUARENTEE THERE WAS EVER GONNA BE A N3 OR THAT BARKS WAS GOING TO SUCESSFULLY PROTECT N2

WE ARE LITERALLY PROMISED A N3 HERE UNLESS BARKS IS WOLFING
 
What I'm saying is there's not a single world where True doesn't stop the nightkill. Meanwhile there are at least 4 where Barks doesn't stop the nightkill, and that's only if she's village. This is why his timing was advantegous. Yes, it would have been even more perfect if Barks stopped the kill and True didn't get pushed today, but that's asking a lot for a lot of unknowns to perfectly align.
 
Okay, I just want to make sure you're not neighbors or anything like that. If you're masons, the game is locked for me. If you're masons, I'm fine getting on alley. I just want to make sure I'm not missing anything.
 
Animal Midwife said:
But, as I mentioned, Barks can still miss N2. And if she misses N2, we have to be perfect. A misyeet here will not instantly lead to a loss (and no chance for True ability) unless it's exactly wolf!Barks. If it's wolf!Barks anyway though, we were never saving anyone N2 so it's a moot point.

Consider the world where Barks fails to protect N2. What does that world look like? True was guarenteed to never fail.

BECAUSE THERE'S NO GUARENTEE THERE WAS EVER GONNA BE A N3 OR THAT BARKS WAS GOING TO SUCESSFULLY PROTECT N2

WE ARE LITERALLY PROMISED A N3 HERE UNLESS BARKS IS WOLFING
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Augh this is frustrating. I wish I could at least get something AI out of you refusing to get my point but I know we do this regardless of affiliation.
 
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