The ultimate COVID thread

[BLADEMDA]

Advertisement - Members don't see this ad

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

fdoh.maps.arcgis.com

The data speaks for itself. The curve has flattened and in 2 weeks will make the CDC criteria to re-open (except for maybe 3 counties).

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

fdoh.maps.arcgis.com

 

[BLADEMDA]

Yes to what? I don’t understand what you are saying? What are these dates? I’m fine with certain areas ending restrictions now if they go into that decision with a clear plan in place. The I-95 corridor in the Northeast, on the other hand, is a place that should remain shutdown until the curve trends downward. The social distancing in NY metro worked and probably prevented a humanitarian crisis unlike anything we’ve ever seen in this country.

Each state needs to analyze the data and make an informed decision. Most parts of the country (3/4) can re-open safely in 2 weeks. NYC, Chicago and New Orleans may need to wait until June. The Governors will make that decision.

 

[BLADEMDA]

IMHO, I expect 3/4 of states to partially reopen by May 18th. Some states in early May with others Mid to Late May. I have no idea about NYC as that was the hardest hit area in the USA.

This is where all 50 states stand on reopening

Stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders are being lifted in some states and extended in others as the coronavirus pandemic continues to upend life. Here’s the latest on where states stand in their plans to reopen.

www.cnn.com

 

[BLADEMDA]

How Colorado Will Slowly Reopen From Its Coronavirus Stay-At-Home Order

As the statewide curve of COVID-19 related hospitalizations continues to flatten, Colorado's stay-at-home order is set to expire Sunday, April 26. But that doesn't mean that Monday, April 27, we'll be able to get back to the same way that we were living our lives in January or February.

www.cpr.org

Colorado is a great example of how to re-open a state. A reasonable Democrat Governor in a Purple/light blue state.

 

[deleted87051]

We live in a Covid rich state 1.2 mil metro area, 1,000 Covid cases, 150 in hospital, 76 inICU, 46 on vent. One of our 8 regional med centers could handle all cases. Our cases are thankfully starting to drop, local university is starting to do elective procedures. Keeping our fingers crossed! Praying for all first responders. PPE is scarce but not reusing.

Isn’t adequate PPE part of healthcare capacity? If you use all the masks for elective cases, there won’t be enough for a surge. Same for propofol.

 

[deleted87051]

IMHO, I expect 3/4 of states to partially reopen by May 18th. Some states in early May with others Mid to Late May. I have no idea about NYC as that was the hardest hit area in the USA.

This is where all 50 states stand on reopening

Stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders are being lifted in some states and extended in others as the coronavirus pandemic continues to upend life. Here’s the latest on where states stand in their plans to reopen.

www.cnn.com

Agree about New York. Their death toll is approaching 20,000. New York State has 20 million people. 0.1% of all New York State residents have died of COVID in the last month.

 

[pgg]

I agree with Cramer who is a Dermocrat. Open up the country ( or some of it) by May 11, 2020.

Following the trend line (which I admit is anything but certain) Cramer thinks by May 11th the numbers will be very low:

Whatever Cramer says, I believe the opposite. That ******* guy. Talk about a unique talent for making a career out of being wrong all the time. What a tool.

 

[Ezekiel2517]

It’s a simple math question. Can your healthcare system handle a surge in patients? Is there a plan in place to handle such a surge?

There is no such thing as a simple math question when the leaders making these decisions cannot do simple math. This has already been proven. A big reason we are where we are is that this country does not understand grade school level math. Let's not even start about basic science knowledge or data driven policy-making. Any decision these ppl make that ends up being right will be purely a result of dumb luck. Keep your fingers crossed.

 

[pgg]

We should also demand access to everyone’s social media accounts and if you were one of the *****s who contracted the virus from one of your idiotic rallies then you get denied care...or at least charged exorbitant fees. This is a situation where we need to ration care and rationing based on stupidity seems to be a reasonable approach.

China has actually have performed some truly cutting-edge research on algorithms to distill monitored social behavior down to a numerical score.

Maybe we could come up with something similar. Not sure what we could call it, perhaps a "system of credit in the social realm" though that doesn't really have a neat ring to it. We could apply it to eligibility determinations for all sorts of government programs.

 

[deleted171991]

China has actually have performed some truly cutting-edge research on algorithms to distill monitored social behavior down to a numerical score.

Maybe we could come up with something similar. Not sure what we could call it, perhaps a "system of credit in the social realm" though that doesn't really have a neat ring to it. We could apply it to eligibility determinations for all sorts of government programs.

We could call it whatever the antonym of "freedom" is.

 

[deleted171991]

People still don't get it. There are two kinds of places: places that have already seen a Covid tsunami and have learned their lesson, and places that haven't yet.

Places that can do whatever the heck they want because they will never see one don't exist. That's like the *****s who believed it was all a democratic hoax, just to die of Covid one month later. Social isolation will be our way of life for at least the near future. That's the main reason the whole country doesn't look like NYC today.

I am almost looking forward to all these red states reopening without restrictions, and then crashing a month later, because they won't believe their dear leader is incompetent until their loved ones get sick.

 

[pgg]

We could call it whatever the antonym of "freedom" is.

Not just freedom, but basic morality. What China is doing with their Social Credit System is straight up immoral and evil.

Frustrating as it can be, caring for dumb people with self-inflicted disease is what we have always done. Outside of pediatrics almost all disease and injury is the fault of the afflicted person, at least to some degree. I'm not at all interested in the US adopting a system that makes moral judgments on who deserves care and who doesn't.

 

[dhb]

It amazes me that our world can function relatively well while being composed of so many faulty blocks.
I mean when a professor of infectious disease touts hydroxychloroquine as a miracle treatment...

 

[Mman]

Following the trend line (which I admit is anything but certain) Cramer thinks by May 11th the numbers will be very low:

View attachment 303091

OK, at least Cramer is tangentially related to an economic thread. But the guy knows nothing about economics or stocks. I mean he is literally wrong in his stock predictions more than half the time. Why on earth would we expect him to know something about epidemiology? I mean is that his actual job and he just moonlights as a stock picking circus clown for cash?

 

[d9sccr]

Our official case count is 800k and our actual case count is probably in the millions. How do you contact trace that many cases? I think we could have done contact tracing in February but that is not possible now.

I said this a few pages ago. With patients being most infectious prior to any symptoms, each carrier has the potential to infect hundreds at the bare minimum over a 10-14 day incubation period. I don’t think contact tracing in the sense of alerting even a majority of contacts is or was feasible here for numerous reasons ranging from privacy to lack of tests to quality of tests to what was known about the virus earlier this year.

Santa Clara County had nation’s first COVID-19 deaths, weeks earlier than thought

The Santa Clara County Department of Public Health learned Tuesday that two individuals who died in February had tissue samples that tested positive for COVID-19.

t.co

This thing was circulating in California in January and I suspect we’re going to find out it was actually December. We never had a chance to really contain this thing in any serious manner. New York could’ve been avoided, but every state was going to see this thing

 

[Monty Python]

We could call it whatever the antonym of "freedom" is.

Nineteen Eighty Four?

 

[dannyboy1]

People still don't get it. There are two kinds of places: places that have already seen a Covid tsunami and have learned their lesson, and places that haven't yet.

Places that can do whatever the heck they want because they will never see one don't exist. That's like the *****s who believed it was all a democratic hoax, just to die of Covid one month later. Social isolation will be our way of life for at least the near future. That's the main reason the whole country doesn't look like NYC today.

I am almost looking forward to all these red states reopening without restrictions, and then crashing a month later, because they won't believe their dear leader is incompetent until their loved ones get sick.

Or maybe when the currency collapses and there is no food in the grocery with rampant crime in the streets you may come around to the realization that this response was idiotic from the beginning. People need to work.

 

[Robotic Wis-Hipple]

Isn’t adequate PPE part of healthcare capacity? If you use all the masks for elective cases, there won’t be enough for a surge. Same for propofol.

Literally nowhere is going to have a surplus of PPE. Nowhere. Where I’m at we are processsing outer masks to protect our processed N95’s worn for all aerosolizing cases. We have not been hit hard and will be loosening restrictions on “elective” cases second week of May at which point the others in the room (circs, scrubs, etc) will not be given N95s.

The sad fact is the people won’t make it another month or more, most businesses won’t, many hospitals would be forced to furlough (if they haven’t already) or risk insolvency. So with those points being even at risk of being true and the fact the alternatives are either strict 60 day stay home martial law style orders or 6+ months of this I don’t think we have a choice.

I hope we avoided the worst case, but I think we are simply going to have to accept a slow burn and multiple mini shutdowns in spots of flare ups.

 

[habibimarwan]

I think biggest hoax is need to stay inside for 2 years! No!! I want to work, operating suites are open, schedule cases now please!!

 

[deleted87051]

I’m 100% production based. I want to work as much as the next guy. We have some hospitals in town that have 10 COVID cases but others that have over 50 and the COVID census can double overnight. Are patients even going to show up for elective surgeries knowing that hospitals have COVID within their doors? If I was a patient waiting for a total knee or a gastric bypass, I would keep waiting.

 

[Robotic Wis-Hipple]

We have some hospitals in town that have 10 COVID cases but others that have over 50 and the COVID census can double overnight. Are patients even going to show up for elective surgeries knowing that hospitals have COVID within their doors?

Lol, I’d wager predominantly yes. People are using a hair cut as an absolute need to get back to normal you think they’re going to put off their not purely elective surgeries? The only reason we won’t be 90% speed ahead with elective ortho is because hospitals aren’t going to open up truly electives right away.

 

[deleted87051]

Lol, I’d wager predominantly yes. People are using a hair cut as an absolute need to get back to normal you think they’re going to put off their not purely elective surgeries? The only reason we won’t be 90% speed ahead with elective ortho is because hospitals aren’t going to open up truly electives right away.

Would you go to a barber shop knowing people in their waiting room have COVID?

 

[deleted87051]

From whitehouse.gov

We don’t have this yet. Trump may say we do but we don’t.

Combating COVID-19 | The White House

The Biden-Harris plan to beat COVID-19

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[Robotic Wis-Hipple]

Would you go to a barber shop knowing people in their waiting room have COVID?

I, am not the average citizen in this country.

But honestly, the hospital and the grocery stores are easily the most likely places I’ll be exposed so I consider my risk high and the barber shop doesn’t scare me...... however, from a public health standpoint i think places like that are clearly irresponsible and I feel like I’m more of a risk to the patrons/barber than they are to me. So no, I wouldn’t go. But many will. Just as many will go ahead with scheduled surgeries. Don’t underestimate ignorance in our country.

 

[deleted643396]

Not just freedom, but basic morality. What China is doing with their Social Credit System is straight up immoral and evil.

Frustrating as it can be, caring for dumb people with self-inflicted disease is what we have always done. Outside of pediatrics almost all disease and injury is the fault of the afflicted person, at least to some degree. I'm not at all interested in the US adopting a system that makes moral judgments on who deserves care and who doesn't.

Is rationing care based on ability to pay just as immoral? Money and wealth has kind of been our proxy measurement for good decision-making in our society. Are we making moral judgments on people when we refuse care based on their ability to pay for it?

 

[vector2]

Would you go to a barber shop knowing people in their waiting room have COVID?

This kind of thing is going to have effects that people aren't even thinking about. You open the salon or nail parlor or bowling alley and nobody shows up. Now your business is open, you still can't pay your employees, and your landlord is going to expect rent that you can't even dream of beginning to pay....

 

[dannyboy1]

Is rationing care based on ability to pay just as immoral? Money and wealth has kind of been our proxy measurement for good decision-making in our society. Are we making moral judgments on people when we refuse care based on their ability to pay for it?

No. We are providing a service and want to be paid for it. To be forced to provide a service without being paid is called slavery and is profoundly immoral.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

This kind of thing is going to have effects that people aren't even thinking about. You open the salon or nail parlor or bowling alley and nobody shows up. Now your business is open, you still can't pay your employees, and your landlord is going to expect rent that you can't even dream of beginning to pay....

That exact reasoning is why some businesses here in SC haven't reopened despite being allowed to.

 

[deleted697535]

Or maybe when my investments collapse and there is no gas for my giant truck you may come around to the realization that this response was idiotic from the beginning. I need to work.

Fixed that for you.
No-one on this board is a Robin Hood

 

[anbuitachi]

Not just freedom, but basic morality. What China is doing with their Social Credit System is straight up immoral and evil.

Frustrating as it can be, caring for dumb people with self-inflicted disease is what we have always done. Outside of pediatrics almost all disease and injury is the fault of the afflicted person, at least to some degree. I'm not at all interested in the US adopting a system that makes moral judgments on who deserves care and who doesn't.

i mentioned this before but i think its all on a spectrum, and where each government and each individual determines something is immoral and evil are different, especially with the changing times.

We already have a similar system in place for certain things, something the government can easily find in your database. Credit scores, financial histories, criminal histories, etc. All these histories reflect your behavior and your past actions. Is it that hard to imagine a social history be incorporated in it? Once its in place for 200 years, people may just think it's normal and part of daily life. What if they set laws in place so it becomes a legal history? Sure it may restrict your freedom more than the US, but everywhere has their own standards. It's not like USA is truly free. it's just more free than china.

 

[dannyboy1]

Fixed that for you.
No-one on this board is a Robin Hood

Never claimed to be. I am a greedy, selfish, cold hearted bastard. The fact remains that we need to open up the economy...

 

[vector2]

 

[deleted270145]

We already have a similar system in place for certain things, something the government can easily find in your database. Credit scores, financial histories, criminal histories, etc. All these histories reflect your behavior and your past actions. Is it that hard to imagine a social history be incorporated in it? Once its in place for 200 years, people may just think it's normal and part of daily life. What if they set laws in place so it becomes a legal history? Sure it may restrict your freedom more than the US, but everywhere has their own standards. It's not like USA is truly free. it's just more free than china.

you made me think of this scene:

Just waiting for the giant helicarriers to start killing people off

 

[deleted87051]

The states need to hire better lobbyists to send to his office. Too bad they can’t donate money to his PAC.

 

[deleted171991]

i mentioned this before but i think its all on a spectrum, and where each government and each individual determines something is immoral and evil are different, especially with the changing times.

We already have a similar system in place for certain things, something the government can easily find in your database. Credit scores, financial histories, criminal histories, etc. All these histories reflect your behavior and your past actions. Is it that hard to imagine a social history be incorporated in it? Once its in place for 200 years, people may just think it's normal and part of daily life. What if they set laws in place so it becomes a legal history? Sure it may restrict your freedom more than the US, but everywhere has their own standards. It's not like USA is truly free. it's just more free than china.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions. Read up on stalinism, maoism etc. Or just "1984" (the novel is not far from what actually ended up happening behind the Iron Curtain.)

The State should NEVER have that kind of power. NEVER. That's the end of democracy and freedom. We've already been on that very slippery slope since the "Patriot" Act (probably the most ironic name for a law in US history).

 

[deleted87051]

If we shut down a month ago when we had a couple hundred deaths, why are we so eager to open up now that we have 45000 deaths? The COVID crisis is worse now, not better. It will get a lot worse when we open up.

 

[BLADEMDA]

If we shut down a month ago when we had a couple hundred deaths, why are we so eager to open up now that we have 45000 deaths? The COVID crisis is worse now, not better. It will get a lot worse when we open up.

Here come the trial lawyers. Perhaps, we will see daily advertisements of trial lawyers recommending you sue for compensation due to being exposed to Covid 19. Maybe, the supermaket? the gym? Clearly, it is someone's FAULT if you get sick due to Covid 19.

Kudlow voices support for shielding companies from coronavirus-related lawsuits

Larry Kudlow said that he was in favor of shielding companies from coronavirus-related lawsuits as the administration eyes a speedy reopening of the economy.

www.cnbc.com

 

[BobLoblaw78]

If we shut down a month ago when we had a couple hundred deaths, why are we so eager to open up now that we have 45000 deaths? The COVID crisis is worse now, not better. It will get a lot worse when we open up.

Using that logic, we would never open again. Deaths will never go down. And yes, if you aren't closed down and have less distancing....things will get worse.

Have I been trolled? Are you just being sarcastic and I'm being like Drax?

 

[deleted87051]

Using that logic, we would never open again. Deaths will never go down. And yes, if you aren't closed down and have less distancing....things will get worse.

Have I been trolled? Are you just being sarcastic and I'm being like Drax?

Not trolling. All the guidelines say we need to see 14 days of downward trending new cases and daily deaths before reopening. It’s happened in other countries (Italy, China) but we haven’t seen that yet.

USA

Italy

 

[deleted87051]

We shut down our economy to flatten the curve (so that there were enough beds, PPE, vents to treat the currently affected patients). It wasn't ever going to effectively eliminate deaths, just spread them out over time to make more manageable for the system.

I understand. But we’ve barely flattened the curve and we still don’t have enough PPE. At least my hospital doesn’t. Does yours?

 

[Mman]

Using that logic, we would never open again. Deaths will never go down. And yes, if you aren't closed down and have less distancing....things will get worse.

Have I been trolled? Are you just being sarcastic and I'm being like Drax?

it's nice to know that what we are doing IS working. That doesn't mean we should stop doing it. We need to carefully monitor rates of new infection and deaths and follow trends. And when places "open back up", they should be ready to close back down if infections and deaths start shooting back up.

 

[ambiturner]

Not trolling. All the guidelines say we need to see 14 days of downward trending new cases and daily deaths before reopening. It’s happened in other countries (Italy, China) but we haven’t seen that yet.

USA

View attachment 303190View attachment 303191

ItalyView attachment 303193View attachment 303198

While I agree that the peak is not yet reached in most places, I think the numbers can’t be taken at face value and need to be adjusted due to the change in the number of tests being administered. Our testing capability was so pathetic at the beginning of this we very well may have missed thousands of cases, as the recent reports of cases in California in January would suggest. In mid March our hospital could barely do 10 tests per day, versus like 100 a day now. So while cases may very well be increasing, the fact that testing is also increasing needs to be accounted for in estimating total infections per day over time. How you would model that mathematically is beyond me.

 

[Mman]

While I agree that the peak is not yet reached in most places, I think the numbers can’t be taken at face value and need to be adjusted due to the change in the number of tests being administered. Our testing capability was so pathetic at the beginning of this we very well may have missed thousands of cases, as the recent reports of cases in California in January would suggest. In mid March our hospital could barely do 10 tests per day, versus like 100 a day now. So while cases may very well be increasing, the fact that testing is also increasing needs to be accounted for in estimating total infections per day over time. How you would model that mathematically is beyond me.

the quick and dirty to me is looking at death rates. I realize there are some places that had people dying and weren't able to test them and depending on where they were they may or may not be counted. But over time as we have "enough" testing, we will at least be reasonably sure of the death count going forward and you can watch that as a proxy for overall infection rates since it's unlikely we make a major dent in the fatality rate until we have a definitive treatment.

 

[deleted171991]

Special Report: Former Labradoodle breeder was tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force

On January 21, the day the first U.S. case of coronavirus was reported, the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services appeared on Fox News to report the latest on the disease as it ravaged China. Alex Azar, a 52-year-old lawyer and former drug industry executive, assured Americans...

www.reuters.com

 

[deleted171991]

Italy's daily coronavirus death toll falls, but new cases climb

HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/ITALY-TALLY (URGENT):Italy's daily coronavirus death toll falls, but new cases climb

news.trust.org

 

[ChiDO]

Every community should open up as their cases go down. They I'm in the midst and we are starting elective surgeries in the next two weeks.

Your hospital has 200 covid, both our hospitals combined, have <20. The three counties here have 400 cases total. I see no reason why we can't return and open up our economy.

 

[deleted87051]

We were just informed that there is a national shortage of disposable glidescope blades and will be reusing them.

 

[deleted643396]

No. We are providing a service and want to be paid for it. To be forced to provide a service without being paid is called slavery and is profoundly immoral.

You missed my point.

 

[dannyboy1]

You missed my point.

My point was we are not “rationing based on ability to pay”. we are a business that provides a service and we want paying costumers. Would that every patient had the ability to pay. No more immoral than the plumber who won’t fix your sink or the grocer that won’t give you food if you don’t pay. Capitalism. It is what it is.

 

[Monty Python]

We were just informed that there is a national shortage of disposable glidescope blades and will be reusing them.

Can they be run through the Steris or autoclave? Or ethylene oxide ?