Time To Get a WWatch - Game Thread

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Animal Midwife said:
I've seen many wolves get ahead of the kill on SDN so I'm not going to clear him just for being forthcoming.
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1. that's a common play here? if you have examples off the top of your head i'd appreciate it
2. do you think it's possible he was coached to make that claim? the kill likely indicates a SDN regular is a wolf but i don't have good leads there
 
Regardless of who killed samac or why, an unfortunate trend I have observed a lot lately is that dead people get no respect. I would like to pay some attention to samac's parting thoughts at least, and also give genny the time of day. I recognize the wifom involved in that, but I think towns are routinely remiss to ignore their own fallen.
 
samac said:
I feel good about JJJ, AM for some reason, and sporty.
I wanted to feel good about PSV but I’m not so sure. I’m not going to have time to look at my Nate theory this morning, I’ll do it in the cycle if I live.
Clem didn’t feel wolfy going down, but hopefully with whatever night ability he has he did something village-y.
I feel entirely null on Nate.
Empire’s later work yesterday was better than his earlier work.
And I’m trying to decide if I just like santy and that makes me want to village read him or if he’s actually village-y.
Not great on true, but I think reading tone in stranger things vs Assassination is worth the time.
I also feel that april village bloc’d too early, espicially with the single non moving vote she should get some scrutiny today.
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Here's a legacy to work with. From a night kill motivations perspective, this post most likely came after the kill was decided, so one would need to reach further back. But it's a helpful summary to chew on.
 
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April placed exactly one vote on Day 1, samac wasn't convinced, and April *did* have a somewhat questionable start to Day 1. I think that's a consensus town read that should be reassessed collectively. Perhaps it holds up, I don't know, but it should be challenged.

EDIT: adding the word "did"
 
Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
Clem I had concrete suspicion of. genny was pretty null and I had some vague gut concerns. I was trying to sort things out, and frankly I wasn't very sure.

I don't think Clem is mafia now. He's wrong and that'll just have to annoy me for the time being, but I don't think he's mafia. I view Nate as a suspect.
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Okay, I like this revision of reads
 
Empire said:
1. that's a common play here? if you have examples off the top of your head i'd appreciate it
2. do you think it's possible he was coached to make that claim? the kill likely indicates a SDN regular is a wolf but i don't have good leads there
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PSV comes to mind in recency.

I assumed it was a more common thing across sites because I saw someone get ahead during a mash as well. Though I don't remember exactly who.
 
Animal Midwife said:
What's got Sporty and Clem so high?
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If Nate is mafia (reiterating the purpose of that list), then:

~ He was pretty content to contribute to the Clem wagon at EOD, and he stayed on it even as others moved to genny. I don't think mafia Nate cared either way in that hypothetical scenario. Refer here to Nate's vote history

~ He kind of discarded his read on Sporty as "null" right alongside genny in a way that suggests both genny and Sporty are aligned in Nate's eyes (thus, both town in this hypothetical):

NateTheLesser said:
Uhhhhhhhhhh they're in a very similar null spot for me.
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Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
If Nate is mafia (reiterating the purpose of that list), then:

~ He was pretty content to contribute to the Clem wagon at EOD, and he stayed on it even as others moved to genny. I don't think mafia Nate cared either way in that hypothetical scenario. Refer here to Nate's vote history

~ He kind of discarded his read on Sporty as "null" right alongside genny in a way that suggests both genny and Sporty are aligned in Nate's eyes (thus, both town in this hypothetical):
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Would you say Nate is a powerwolf?
 
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Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
Clem I had concrete suspicion of. genny was pretty null and I had some vague gut concerns. I was trying to sort things out, and frankly I wasn't very sure.

I don't think Clem is mafia now. He's wrong and that'll just have to annoy me for the time being, but I don't think he's mafia. I view Nate as a suspect.
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Aprilthearab said:
Okay, I like this revision of reads
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Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
What's to like?
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I was able to follow your thought process with your initial wolf read on clem and I agree with you about not thinking he's wolf anymore after last night's events. I appreciate that you've recognized you were biased because he wolf read you and you revised your read after addressing the bias, feels like an honest villagey response. It would be a lot easier for you as a wolf to continue pursuing Clem as a wolf read instead of revising and dropping it.

I'm okay with your previous uncertainty on genny even though she flipped village - I know she's hard to read and you've never played with her before, feels like genuine village confusion.

I also agree with keeping Nate as questionable but not necessarily straight wolf read right now
 
Animal Midwife said:
PSV comes to mind in recency.

I assumed it was a more common thing across sites because I saw someone get ahead during a mash as well. Though I don't remember exactly who.
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not often, no

drawing from the memory banks, i DID once see someone on EM fakeclaim being a protective whose action failed due to a strongarm, but that was in a role madness game where they could somewhat plausibly pass it off. (and even then, there was in fact an actual protective who did get strongarmed so the claims were somewhat in conflict). so, idk, not impossible given suspicion on him i guess but still surprising

i guess i'd be fine with a fullclaim?

there are a lot of wild plays in mashes but i kind of think that's owed to being a big game. knowing the individual player's meta matters when it comes to evaluating a roleclaim.
 
I am still liking Empire as a yeet option and solidifying some other people in my village reads has made my POE smaller, so

Yeet Empire
 
Empire said:
okay, why? i don't want vague "poe" citations. why am i wolfy to you?
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Sorry, vague poe citations is all you're going to get for now because I'm still half way behind in the thread. It sucks for me just as much as it sucks for anyone wanting my reads
 
Aprilthearab said:
Sorry, vague poe citations is all you're going to get for now because I'm still half way behind in the thread. It sucks for me just as much as it sucks for anyone wanting my reads
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why does being behind matter? if you've read my posts and have an idea in your mind that i am a suspect you should be able to elaborate a coherent reason for that being the case even if you can't cite actual posts. even so much as a single sentence would suffice. i don't need a case, i need to see what's going on in your head
 
Empire said:
w/r/t clem:

i know he can frequently be aloof on day 1 as either alignment and so it's not always easy to get a read, he can be an "easy" misyeet

i think when motivated he's fully capable of projecting towniness as mafia by acting in a more conventional manner as mafia but he is not always motivated

i also think when he's town he usually has flashes of genuine moments behind his facade

i didn't think he'd open the game by voting you as mafia but i haven't seen anything from him since that rings genuine
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I know you put your vote on clem twice before EOD, is this all you were voting him for or did something change that made you move? You say he can be an easy misyeet especially on D1, and you say you don't think he'd vote JJJ as mafia, and your only point (as I'm interpreting) is that you don't really have any village points for him. So I'm not seeing how that adds up to two votes on Clem
 
Empire said:
why does being behind matter? if you've read my posts and have an idea in your mind that i am a suspect you should be able to elaborate a coherent reason for that being the case even if you can't cite actual posts. even so much as a single sentence would suffice. i don't need a case, i need to see what's going on in your head
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I've given reasons up to the point that I've caught up and they're floating around out there on the thread but I don't have the time to hunt them down. I would have a hard time being coherent without pulling quotes and for this small time window between school and work I'm going to prioritize catching up. I'll make a more coherent argument post when I have the chance to sit down at home and open multiple tabs to pull quotes and everything
 
Aprilthearab said:
I know you put your vote on clem twice before EOD, is this all you were voting him for or did something change that made you move? You say he can be an easy misyeet especially on D1, and you say you don't think he'd vote JJJ as mafia, and your only point (as I'm interpreting) is that you don't really have any village points for him. So I'm not seeing how that adds up to two votes on Clem
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"don't have any village points" is maybe a bit of an oversimplification - to that point i had not seen anything that made me feel he had real thoughts on the game, and the JJJ suspicion had begun to feel like it was perhaps un-serious in how he was presenting it.

is it a great reason? no, but to that point i lacked strong reason to pursue anyone else as a wolf read. It was Day 1 and I found most people to have some points for them being a villager. i wavered on nate and he was the next available option until i started to feel he was also the wrong vote.

you can say it's not a great reason for a wolf read and i wouldn't disagree, but i was struggling for choices, and i have to vote someone, yeah?
 
Empire said:
"don't have any village points" is maybe a bit of an oversimplification - to that point i had not seen anything that made me feel he had real thoughts on the game, and the JJJ suspicion had begun to feel like it was perhaps un-serious in how he was presenting it.

is it a great reason? no, but to that point i lacked strong reason to pursue anyone else as a wolf read. It was Day 1 and I found most people to have some points for them being a villager. i wavered on nate and he was the next available option until i started to feel he was also the wrong vote.

you can say it's not a great reason for a wolf read and i wouldn't disagree, but i was struggling for choices, and i have to vote someone, yeah?
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Well, I'm just concerned that there were sketchier people that you didn't pursue for fear of bussing a packmate. I know D1 can sometimes be hard with little to go off of, but I thought we had quite a bit to go off of and choose from with how much time and thread activity had passed by EOD.
 
For what it's worth, I recognize the struggle Empire describes in my own Day 1. I do think it was a productive and good Day 1, but it was also a hard Day 1. I didn't have any confident suspicions by the end. None. But one has to find the best vote available, in whatever form that may take.

I think Day 2 can go two very different directions, entirely dependent upon Nate. If he's mafia, then this game seems relatively straightfoward -- and some of the earlier Day 1 consensus was probably on point. If he isn't, then I am essentially just as stumped as I was yesterday.
 
Aprilthearab said:
I've given reasons up to the point that I've caught up and they're floating around out there on the thread but I don't have the time to hunt them down. I would have a hard time being coherent without pulling quotes and for this small time window between school and work I'm going to prioritize catching up. I'll make a more coherent argument post when I have the chance to sit down at home and open multiple tabs to pull quotes and everything
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this is what bothers me, honestly - i don't need a case or even quotes. i don't doubt you're a skilled enough player to produce arguments as either alignment. the actual details are less important to me (because for starters i know they are wrong), what is important to me is getting a view into your thinking

what i need from you are extemporaneous thoughts on the game. because generally speaking i don't believe it is hard for a villager to elaborate on why they feel a certain way about a slot off the top of their head, to say "i think player A is wolfy because xyz" . but wolves need to manufacture things. sometime they won't always actually be thinking why they're pushing someone, they just know they want to push them. and when i ask you why you suspect people and you only give me an ordered ranking but without elaboration i begin to wonder if your wolf reads are being constructed by you for strategic purposes and there's not much actually going on behind the curtain.


now this might be coming across harsh if you're a villager and it seems like i'm slagging you off because you're slow to produce arguments because you want to be careful with your reasoning or whatever, but my goal here is to sort you and to do so i need to know your thought process.
 
Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
For what it's worth, I recognize the struggle Empire describes in my own Day 1. I do think it was a productive and good Day 1, but it was also a hard Day 1. I didn't have any confident suspicions by the end. None. But one has to find the best vote available, in whatever form that may take.

I think Day 2 can go two very different directions, entirely dependent upon Nate. If he's mafia, then this game seems relatively straightfoward -- and some of the earlier Day 1 consensus was probably on point. If he isn't, then I am essentially just as stumped as I was yesterday.
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Do you think Nate is where we need to go today to get more info about the rest of the roster?
 
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Aprilthearab said:
Well, I'm just concerned that there were sketchier people that you didn't pursue for fear of bussing a packmate. I know D1 can sometimes be hard with little to go off of, but I thought we had quite a bit to go off of and choose from with how much time and thread activity had passed by EOD.
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like whom? truenamer?

if we had "quite a bit to go off of" why is it so hard for you to explain your wolf reads to me?
 
Empire said:
this is what bothers me, honestly - i don't need a case or even quotes. i don't doubt you're a skilled enough player to produce arguments as either alignment. the actual details are less important to me (because for starters i know they are wrong), what is important to me is getting a view into your thinking

what i need from you are extemporaneous thoughts on the game. because generally speaking i don't believe it is hard for a villager to elaborate on why they feel a certain way about a slot off the top of their head, to say "i think player A is wolfy because xyz" . but wolves need to manufacture things. sometime they won't always actually be thinking why they're pushing someone, they just know they want to push them. and when i ask you why you suspect people and you only give me an ordered ranking but without elaboration i begin to wonder if your wolf reads are being constructed by you for strategic purposes and there's not much actually going on behind the curtain.


now this might be coming across harsh if you're a villager and it seems like i'm slagging you off because you're slow to produce arguments because you want to be careful with your reasoning or whatever, but my goal here is to sort you and to do so i need to know your thought process.
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I didn't like your super hedgy clem push, I don't like that you landed on genny, I think there was a wolf on genny's vote and it wasn't Samac and I'm village reading JJJ and Clem was a self-prez with village feels which leads me to either you or santy and I'm feeling worse vibes about you than santy, I don't have any good village points to give you despite knowing you're a good experienced player, and there were particular posts of yours that would make a lot of sense to fit the strategy of a wolf
 
I think it's plausible that genny was chopped by five villagers. When town starts to flash wagon one of their own, there's sometimes no need for mafia to participate (especially if the counterwagon Clem is also town).

It's not a strong impression for me, since 4 of 10 living players is a big chunk, but I don't discount the possibility.
 
Aprilthearab said:
I didn't like your super hedgy clem push, I don't like that you landed on genny, I think there was a wolf on genny's vote and it wasn't Samac and I'm village reading JJJ and Clem was a self-prez with village feels which leads me to either you or santy and I'm feeling worse vibes about you than santy, I don't have any good village points to give you despite knowing you're a good experienced player, and there were particular posts of yours that would make a lot of sense to fit the strategy of a wolf
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okay. thank you.
 
Empire said:
why psv? i feel like her posts today feel more independent-minded than i'd expect from a wolf here
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I'm not understanding her reads progressions. Particularly, wolf-reading me is bothering me a lot because she tends to treat me this way as a wolf. Post-Stranger Things, she's been open about being unable to read me in her village games. This game she went from having me in her greens to POEing me and didn't mention the above.
 
@Empire do you think there's any meaning to be extracted from the fact that four of us all turned into turbulent vote-swapping dopes late in Day 1 (samac, myself, you, and Santy)? I want to view that as a sort of kinship in confusion, but I suppose it's possible there's something deliberate about it from someone.
 
NateTheLesser said:
Each player's vote history:

gHNugzU.png
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When I call us turbulent vote-swapping dopes, I am using this for reference.
 
Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
I think it's plausible that genny was chopped by five villagers. When town starts to flash wagon one of their own, there's sometimes no need for mafia to participate (especially if the counterwagon Clem is also town).

It's not a strong impression for me, since 4 of 10 living players is a big chunk, but I don't discount the possibility.
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will agree that wagonomics type reasoning falls flat for me for this reason - most recent game on MU had 4/4 tied wagons between wolf and villager at end of day 1 - the counterwagon to the wolf had all villagers on it who decided to wagon the absent villager after the wolves all left the thread

i'm not saying that is necessarily or even likely to be the case this game i just thing that type of analysis too often relies on arbitrary assumptions
 
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Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
@Aprilthearab why do you think your vote was so static on Day 1?
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I was, have been, and currently am perfectly comfortable with my wolf read of Empire since I've not seen anything to change my mind and all my other possible wolf suspicions are doing just enough for me to not want to yeet them yet
 
Jagged Jimmy Jay said:
@Empire do you think there's any meaning to be extracted from the fact that four of us all turned into turbulent vote-swapping dopes late in Day 1 (samac, myself, you, and Santy)? I want to view that as a sort of kinship in confusion, but I suppose it's possible there's something deliberate about it from someone.
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not really - i think at least between you/me/santy we're skilled enough to fake that sort of uncertainty - i am cognizant of it because master radishes popped me one time because of my vote being too static. you of course pointed out your own tendency to keep your vote static as mafia but being self-aware kind of mitigates the tell
 
Animal Midwife said:
I'm not understanding her reads progressions. Particularly, wolf-reading me is bothering me a lot because she tends to treat me this way as a wolf. Post-Stranger Things, she's been open about being unable to read me in her village games. This game she went from having me in her greens to POEing me and didn't mention the above.
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understandable, thank you. will keep it in mind
 
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