Just to clarify - Will all schools know how many open seats they have on May 1st?
The trafficking rules were very confusing to me too so I did a lot of research on the topic. I will try to explain as best as I can.
So from the students' end it's pretty simple: In Feb the "choose your medical school tool" opens up. April 15th you have to narrow your "Plan to Enroll" choices down to 3 options. By April 30 you have to choose "plan to enroll" at only one school, BUT can stay on other school's waitlists.
From the admissions office end: BEFORE April 30 they can only see general aggregate data. That means they can see what percentage of their accepted students chose PTE for their school vs another school, but they CANNOT see which individual applicant chose what or what other schools. AFTER April 30 they can see which individual applicants chose plan to enroll at their school or a different school (but still cant see what specific school they chose over them). ALSO: they can see whether their waitlisted applicants have chosen PTE at a different school or not.
These are general rules for all AMCAS schools (idk how Texas schools work).
Individual schools have their own trafficking rules too. The main one you have to keep in mind and look into for any schools you get accepted at is their "Commit to Enroll" deadline. CTE means that this is the school you are definitely going to and you must withdraw from all waitlists. In general, a school's CTE deadline is approximately 3 weeks before orientation but that can vary. This is actually SUPER annoying because say you get into your #2 school in May, you have to CTE there in early July, but theoretically your #1 school has until their first day of class to accept you off their WL but you have to pull out of their WL way before then.
There are a few important takeaways: It is in the schools best interest to do whatever they can to increase their matriculant:acceptance ratio. The more people that accept their offer, the higher their ranking becomes and it also increases the school's prestige. Also, they can make sure they have no empty spots. Also, the idea behind these trafficking rules is to make sure there are no empty seats at any medical schools since those seats are expensive and there are many many applicants for far fewer spots.
Some of my theories: I feel like medical schools may be more inclined to choose an applicant on their waitlist who has not chosen PTE anywhere else because the chances of them accepting their offer is very high (that would be good for us!!!). Also, many medical schools might not have any WL movement until May because they need to see which individual students chose PTE there for various reasons (keeping demographic ratios reasonable, specific number of spots for special programs at their school, etc).
Sorry for super lengthy explanation but hopefully this helps and answers all your questions and more!! Anyone let me know what you think about my theories or some of your opinions on this protocol.