Nor'east Ski WWeekend (Basics) - Game Thread

Veterinary School Application Advising Ad
This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.
PippyPony

PippyPony

not a wolf
Verified Member
10+ Year Member
Veterinarian
Joined
May 24, 2013
Messages
23,359
Reaction score
33,750
Members don't see this ad.
~ Hey everyone, let's go on a ski trip! ~
_______
ski the east tiny.png
Nor'east Ski WWeekend
ski the east tiny.png

A (mostly) Basics Game
_______
​
*Ski Instructors*
@PippyPony @Lawper @Karabiner13 @johnnaboo

*Rules*
1. Editing is allowed, but no editing lynch votes.
2. No direct quoting of PMs, but paraphrasing is ok. No screenshots, ever.
3. No PMing outside of mod defined communication lines.
4. Dead players cannot post strategy, cannot like posts containing strategy, cannot PM with living players about the game, cannot influence the game in any way. This will be strictly enforced.
5. To encourage diversity of play styles, there is no minimum posting requirement. Not my fault if your fellow players decide to off you for being too quiet, though.

*Other things to keep in mind*
  • Roles will not particularly help you; feel free to discuss if you would like to risk it
  • There is no villager code
  • Don't look to mods for information about game mechanics. Write ups will typically not help you all that much (unless you are planning a ski vacation in New England!)
________
*Game Set Up*

This game contains:
3 +1 wolves (3 originals, 1 convert opportunity)
20 villagers
No 3rd parties

Ties will be handled as follows:
First tie: RNG 2 people between those tied and tiemaker
Second tie onwards: All tied parties die; 50% chance of tiemaker also dying.

Ok, because this is supposed to be a basics game with overall mechanics laid out, here's how I will be handling no votes or No Lynch votes:
  • Players will not be mod-penalized at any time for withholding a vote or failing to place a vote
  • A vote of No Lynch (<-- submitted with this format or ##No Lynch##) will be treated as equivalent to a regular vote for a person. This means:
    • A 4-way No Lynch will adhere to stated tie rules
    • A No Lynch vote can be changed in the regular manner by submitting Unlynch No Lynch ; Lynch {Person}, as any other normal vote may be changed.


Cycles:
Lynch closes at 10pm Eastern
Night closes at 10am Eastern or as soon as all actions are in
Lynch/night will both be considered closed on the stroke of 10 unless otherwise specified in advance
_______

*Skiers*
1. @Animal Midwife
2. @WildZoo
3. @cubsrule4e
4. @Dinashadow
5. @bryndiana.jones
6. @mypetmoose
7. @Skimble
8. @grebes4lyfe
9. @muttmanager
10. @genny
11. @SARdoghandler
12. @StartingoverVet
13. @ziggyandjazzy
14. @CoffeeQuestionMark
15. @Melchizedek
16. @dolphin106258
17. @Barkley13
18. @capri1722
19. @Mad Jack
20. @SportPonies
21. @MSUcvmHOPE
22. @SnowshoeDog143
23. @killerleaf

23/23 remaining.

*The Ski Lodge Bar (Spectators/Subs)*
1. @StayingPositive2017
2. @picklegurl
3. @sheltermed
4. @allieh8607
5. @SkiOtter
6. @Altruistic80
7. @Stagg737
8. @Coopah

ski the east.jpg
​
 
Last edited:
 
Last edited:
Day 1 - Introduction
***

"Polar vortex fractures; northern United States to see record-breaking lows next week"
polar vortex.gif

​
The SDN outing club, now recovered from their hikes in the White Mountains, perked up as the meteorologists began to mention colder temperatures and the associated promise of freshly fallen snow. It had been a dry winter so far, and the wannabe ski bunnies had been disappointed by the sorry excuses for blizzards. No snow means no snow days, and thus no spontaneous ski trips.

While the rest of New England prepared to huddle up and hibernate near the fireplace, the SDN outing club excitedly gathered up their cold-weather gear, piled into their friends' SUVs, and started to drive north. Far, far north.

What adventures lay ahead of them...? Well, they were about to find out!

Skiing, after all, is a dangerous sport...
_______
CURRENT FORECAST FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY, JANUARY 29th 2019
ezgif-4-d8d5929195e1.png


It is now DAY ONE.

Lynch will close at 10pm Eastern Time.​

ski the east tiny.png
​
 
Last edited:
Dartboard wolf picks (the OG ones anyway) - AM, Dina, and Mutts

RNGesus knows best.

Lynch AM

Assuming you're using a random number generator to generate your dartboard wolf picks, the chances of you picking at least…
  • 1 wolf = 10.7%
  • 2 wolves = 1.13%
  • all 3 wolves = 0.056%
* Caveat: only considering OG wolves
 
capri1722 said:
Dartboard wolf picks (the OG ones anyway) - AM, Dina, and Mutts

RNGesus knows best.

Lynch AM

Assuming you're using a random number generator to generate your dartboard wolf picks, the chances of you picking at least…
  • 1 wolf = 10.7%
  • 2 wolves = 1.13%
  • all 3 wolves = 0.056%
* Caveat: only considering OG wolves
Click to expand...
Your math doesn't look right.
If 3/22 players are wolves = 13.6% of players are wolves which should be the lrobablity of 1 wolf pick.
1.9% for 2
0.25% for 3
EDIT:
DANGIT
MINE IS ALSO WRONG
it is 5:30 in the morning...
One randon guess = 13.6% chance of guessing a wolf.
Each guess thereafter is 13.6% x (3-x)/22-n where x is undetermined because you don't know if the first guess actually flilled wolf.

But you're making 3 guesses so the probability if guessing a wolf with 3 guesses is actually higher.

I think it would be 3/22 + (3-x)/21 + (3-x)/20 and be roughly 40%
 
Last edited:
capri1722 said:
Dartboard wolf picks (the OG ones anyway) - AM, Dina, and Mutts

RNGesus knows best.

Lynch AM

Assuming you're using a random number generator to generate your dartboard wolf picks, the chances of you picking at least…
  • 1 wolf = 10.7%
  • 2 wolves = 1.13%
  • all 3 wolves = 0.056%
* Caveat: only considering OG wolves
Click to expand...

I’m confused by this math too. Can you explain?
 
CoffeeQuestionMark said:
Your math doesn't look right.
If 3/22 players are wolves = 13.6% of players are wolves which should be the lrobablity of 1 wolf pick.
1.9% for 2
0.25% for 3
EDIT:
DANGIT
MINE IS ALSO WRONG
it is 5:30 in the morning...
One randon guess = 13.6% chance of guessing a wolf.
Each guess thereafter is 13.6% x (3-x)/22-n where x is undetermined because you don't know if the first guess actually flilled wolf.

But you're making 3 guesses so the probability if guessing a wolf with 3 guesses is actually higher.

I think it would be 3/22 + (3-x)/21 + (3-x)/20 and be roughly 40%
Click to expand...

Oh that was the probability on her guesses, got it

I start a Probability and Statistics course literally today, I need some time to freshen up
 
CoffeeQuestionMark said:
Your math doesn't look right.
If 3/22 players are wolves = 13.6% of players are wolves which should be the lrobablity of 1 wolf pick.
1.9% for 2
0.25% for 3
EDIT:
DANGIT
MINE IS ALSO WRONG
it is 5:30 in the morning...
One randon guess = 13.6% chance of guessing a wolf.
Each guess thereafter is 13.6% x (3-x)/22-n where x is undetermined because you don't know if the first guess actually flilled wolf.

But you're making 3 guesses so the probability if guessing a wolf with 3 guesses is actually higher.
Click to expand...
You also have to factor in the probability that the other two you picked are villagers.

…wait I just realized my math is right but labeled wrong. It should be probability of picking exactly X number of wolves, not at least. Because then yes it would be 13.6% for the first wolf. But the x and n in your edit wouldn't be undetermined because if you're calculating the probability of picking 2 or 3 wolves, you're already making the assumption that the first 1 or 2 were correct. And then if you're saying "at least," then it doesn't matter whether the third pick is right or not. So 2 wolves = (3/23)*(2/22)*1 and 3 wolves = (3/23)*(2/22)*(1/21).

…wait. But for "at least 2 wolves" you would have to factor in each possible combination. So it would be [(3/23)*(2/22)*(21/21)]+[(3/23)*(22/22)*(2/21)]+[(23/23)*(3/22)*(2/21)] = 3.73%. And aaaaahhhhh frick I'm not going back and doing that again for my calculations above.

ETA: And you'd also need each possible combination for "at least one wolf" because you get 3 guesses. So for tots it simplifies out to (3/23)+(3/22)+(3/21) I think?

I swear statistics was my best class. I think this would have been easier to just pull out my old calculator and do the binomcdf function or something.

ETA: I also just realized I did the tot version of the calculation where you don't have at least one person whose affiliation you know for certain. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I give up.
 
Last edited:
capri1722 said:
You also have to factor in the probability that the other two you picked are villagers.

…wait I just realized my math is right but labeled wrong. It should be probability of picking exactly X number of wolves, not at least. Because then yes it would be 13.6% for the first wolf. But the x and n in your edit wouldn't be undetermined because if you're calculating the probability of picking 2 or 3 wolves, you're already making the assumption that the first 1 or 2 were correct. And then if you're saying "at least," then it doesn't matter whether the third pick is right or not. So 2 wolves = (3/23)*(2/22)*1 and 3 wolves = (3/23)*(2/22)*(1/21).

…wait. But for "at least 2 wolves" you would have to factor in each possible combination. So it would be [(3/23)*(2/22)*(21/21)]+[(3/23)*(22/22)*(2/21)]+[(23/23)*(3/22)*(2/21)] = 3.73%. And aaaaahhhhh frick I'm not going back and doing that again for my calculations above.

I swear statistics was my best class. I think this would have been easier to just pull out my old calculator and do the binomcdf function or something.

ETA: I also just realized I did the tot version of the calculation where you don't have at least one person whose affiliation you know for certain. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I give up.
Click to expand...

Meh, despite all the numbers you're still wrong. 😛
 
ugh. too early in the morning for math.
 
Lynch WZ, because isn't she always a wolf?
 
###lynch barks###
Because you always try to lynch me so I wanna lynch you first

Also, no one is going to get mad at Capri for this but my screen shot last time was "excessive". Ok...
 
Animal Midwife said:
Weak. Do better, son.
Click to expand...

Ok so since we are doing statistical analyses,

Odds of being a wolf in the prior game is 4/20 = 0.2
Odds of being a wolf this game 3/23 = 0.13

Thus, odds of being a wolf both games in a row = 0.2 x. 0.13 = .026 or 2.6%. Thats not impossible but pretty low. So I am going to village lean myself, sporty, and snowy.
 
cubsrule4e said:
Ok so since we are doing statistical analyses,

Odds of being a wolf in the prior game is 4/20 = 0.2
Odds of being a wolf this game 3/23 = 0.13

Thus, odds of being a wolf both games in a row = 0.2 x. 0.13 = .026 or 2.6%. Thats not impossible but pretty low. So I am going to village lean myself, sporty, and snowy.
Click to expand...
Why would you village lean yourself? You should know if you are village or not

Though I get the stats bit
 
cubsrule4e said:
Ok so since we are doing statistical analyses,

Odds of being a wolf in the prior game is 4/20 = 0.2
Odds of being a wolf this game 3/23 = 0.13

Thus, odds of being a wolf both games in a row = 0.2 x. 0.13 = .026 or 2.6%. Thats not impossible but pretty low. So I am going to village lean myself, sporty, and snowy.
Click to expand...
No
 
cubsrule4e said:
More incorrect math?
Click to expand...
Game to game RNG is unlinked. Statistics blah blah blah but practically being a wolf one game should have no bearing on how you evaluate someone the next game.

@Skimble but what are the odds, amirite? 😉
 
ziggyandjazzy said:
###lynch barks###
Because you always try to lynch me so I wanna lynch you first

Also, no one is going to get mad at Capri for this but my screen shot last time was "excessive". Ok...
Click to expand...
After using “over justification” as a reason to call you wolf last game and you ending up being a villager, can you see why we would be hesitant to try that strategy again?

cubsrule4e said:
Ok so since we are doing statistical analyses,

Odds of being a wolf in the prior game is 4/20 = 0.2
Odds of being a wolf this game 3/23 = 0.13

Thus, odds of being a wolf both games in a row = 0.2 x. 0.13 = .026 or 2.6%. Thats not impossible but pretty low. So I am going to village lean myself, sporty, and snowy.
Click to expand...
Didn’t genny once go a couple games in a row randing wolf or something?
 
Melchizedek said:
After using “over justification” as a reason to call you wolf last game and you ending up being a villager, can you see why we would be hesitant to try that strategy again?


Didn’t genny once go a couple games in a row randing wolf or something?
Click to expand...
I could see why you would be hesitant, yes. I was hesitant to RNG for that reason. But capri could be trying bank off that.

It's sure possible for people to wolf two+ times in a row. The RNG of one game doesn't affect the RNG of another. Cubs is making the stats look good in her (his?) favor
 
D1 Skiing Tally

Killerleaf (1) - SOV
grebes (1) - AM
Mel (1) - Skilary
AM (3) - capri, MSU, WZ
MSU (1) - Barks
Capri (1) - Grebes
WZ (2) - Sporty, killerleaf
Barks (1) - Ziggy

11/23 voting

~10 hours till lynch close

Please let me know if i missed anything!
 
cubsrule4e said:
Ok so since we are doing statistical analyses,

Odds of being a wolf in the prior game is 4/20 = 0.2
Odds of being a wolf this game 3/23 = 0.13

Thus, odds of being a wolf both games in a row = 0.2 x. 0.13 = .026 or 2.6%. Thats not impossible but pretty low. So I am going to village lean myself, sporty, and snowy.
Click to expand...
Please stop with the bad math. You don’t want to see me mad. You wouldn’t like me mad.
 
ziggyandjazzy said:
I could see why you would be hesitant, yes. I was hesitant to RNG for that reason. But capri could be trying bank off that.

It's sure possible for people to wolf two+ times in a row. The RNG of one game doesn't affect the RNG of another. Cubs is making the stats look good in her (his?) favor
Click to expand...

Nah, was just trying to provide some useful insight since AM called me weak sauce. Apparently it hasnt been very useful though.
 
cubsrule4e said:
Ok so since we are doing statistical analyses,

Odds of being a wolf in the prior game is 4/20 = 0.2
Odds of being a wolf this game 3/23 = 0.13

Thus, odds of being a wolf both games in a row = 0.2 x. 0.13 = .026 or 2.6%. Thats not impossible but pretty low. So I am going to village lean myself, sporty, and snowy.
Click to expand...

This gives me weird feels. Also one game does not influence the probability of the other if mods use rng.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Animal Midwife
Death Nommy - Game Thread
83 84 85 86 87
Replies
4K
Views
40K
Animal Midwife
Animal Midwife
WildZoo
  • Poll Poll
Mission ImpoWWssible Game Thread
46 47 48 49 50
Replies
2K
Views
32K
Clem J
Clem J
supershorty
GGoats ThWWee: Here It GGoats Again - GAME THREAD
93 94 95 96 97
Replies
5K
Views
40K
vampyrica
vampyrica
Animal Midwife
Matrix - Game Thread
77 78 79 80 81
Replies
4K
Views
79K
samac
samac
WildZoo
  • Poll Poll
PokeWWon: A Wild Kanto Adventure - Champs Season 12 Practice Game Thread
87 88 89 90 91
Replies
5K
Views
46K
Animal Midwife
Animal Midwife
Top