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Sorry I had to reincarnate myself since I ran out of attachment space under my old log on.
Here is the first plot for 2010 Tucson WL. I will plot up the first 5-6 points then turn it over to madein.
The purpose of this plot is to allow folks to take their WL number and gauge when/if they might expect a call.
After the first 3-4 points I will put up your first trend line.
Like prior years there will be two trend lines. The first is for the go-slow period up to about the end of April and then a second for the go fast period up till early-june. The trend line is meant to dampen out smaller swings in WL spot movement from week to week.
After plotting 3-4 points in the go fast period (say by early may) you should be able to put up the second trend line and get a very good estimate of where we will wind up (say +/- 3 spots) in early-june. This will allow people on the bubble to make/follow-through with their alternative plans.
Data Analysis
Last year we had a fast start with 4 called off of the WL on the first day. So 13 after the first couple of days is very impressive but it is not indicative of the expected rate of WL movement - it only sets a starting point
The majority of these initial thirteen were likely required to fill declines from OOS'ers in the primary acceptance group. The primary acceptance group probably had close to the max 25% OOS'ers and it is likely we will see even higher than normal declines from these OOS'ers as we move closer to early may when they see all of their choices open up.
As I mentioned before it is likely that a small fraction (much less than 25%) of folks on the tucson WL are OOS'ers. So I do not expect too much of a change from previous years in terms of decline rates off of the WL - that is WL accepts typically stick.
As in prior years a very large fraction of the churn in WL spots comes from small numbers of declines out of Tucson/Phx and then the interplay of the separate Phx and Tucson waitlists backfilling.
The Tucson Adcoms will likely learn from this year in trying to pick OOS'ers who are more likely to stick next year. Kudos again to the Adcoms for keeping this years WL process open/transparent and humane.
First Prediction
My moderately conservative prediction is we will likely get to about 63 on the WL this year. We will probably see 30 by the end of april.
I think those holding spots 50 and lower should be pretty comfortable about their chances this year. They might want to start thinking strategically about housing, parking and investigating federal/private loan providers.
nonlocality
Here is the first plot for 2010 Tucson WL. I will plot up the first 5-6 points then turn it over to madein.
The purpose of this plot is to allow folks to take their WL number and gauge when/if they might expect a call.
After the first 3-4 points I will put up your first trend line.
Like prior years there will be two trend lines. The first is for the go-slow period up to about the end of April and then a second for the go fast period up till early-june. The trend line is meant to dampen out smaller swings in WL spot movement from week to week.
After plotting 3-4 points in the go fast period (say by early may) you should be able to put up the second trend line and get a very good estimate of where we will wind up (say +/- 3 spots) in early-june. This will allow people on the bubble to make/follow-through with their alternative plans.
Data Analysis
Last year we had a fast start with 4 called off of the WL on the first day. So 13 after the first couple of days is very impressive but it is not indicative of the expected rate of WL movement - it only sets a starting point
The majority of these initial thirteen were likely required to fill declines from OOS'ers in the primary acceptance group. The primary acceptance group probably had close to the max 25% OOS'ers and it is likely we will see even higher than normal declines from these OOS'ers as we move closer to early may when they see all of their choices open up.
As I mentioned before it is likely that a small fraction (much less than 25%) of folks on the tucson WL are OOS'ers. So I do not expect too much of a change from previous years in terms of decline rates off of the WL - that is WL accepts typically stick.
As in prior years a very large fraction of the churn in WL spots comes from small numbers of declines out of Tucson/Phx and then the interplay of the separate Phx and Tucson waitlists backfilling.
The Tucson Adcoms will likely learn from this year in trying to pick OOS'ers who are more likely to stick next year. Kudos again to the Adcoms for keeping this years WL process open/transparent and humane.
First Prediction
My moderately conservative prediction is we will likely get to about 63 on the WL this year. We will probably see 30 by the end of april.
I think those holding spots 50 and lower should be pretty comfortable about their chances this year. They might want to start thinking strategically about housing, parking and investigating federal/private loan providers.
nonlocality
