Nobody's buying it. I mean, we all know that picture is of you. We're not buying that you got a facebook. That's outrageous.
2009-2010 University of Arizona Application Thread
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Here is a new Tucson WL plot with the first trendline. This trendline expresses the expected movement of the WL till roughly the end of April.
Analysis:
This is slowest early movement of a WL that we have seen in the past 4 yrs.
Given the slope of the first trendline we are climbing the waitlist at about 1.2 seats a week. This is less than half of the 2009 WL trendline.
What is important about the first trendline is it suggests how high the WL will reach by the end of April. That end of April value establishes the starting point for the go-fast second trendline. Obviously the higher the starting point the higher the ultimate WL number realized.
Prediction:
I think it is still possible to equal the 2008 result, which was up in the low-mid 60's. Actually 2008 reached about 65 but they went through about 4 WL seats (62 up to 65) in the last couple of days as they tried to fill out their class just before it started. For my plot I used 62 to reflect a 1 seat change in the WL.
If you are 50 and below I think your chances are still excellent. Pushing into the low 70's maybe difficult
nonlocality
Analysis:
This is slowest early movement of a WL that we have seen in the past 4 yrs.
Given the slope of the first trendline we are climbing the waitlist at about 1.2 seats a week. This is less than half of the 2009 WL trendline.
What is important about the first trendline is it suggests how high the WL will reach by the end of April. That end of April value establishes the starting point for the go-fast second trendline. Obviously the higher the starting point the higher the ultimate WL number realized.
Prediction:
I think it is still possible to equal the 2008 result, which was up in the low-mid 60's. Actually 2008 reached about 65 but they went through about 4 WL seats (62 up to 65) in the last couple of days as they tried to fill out their class just before it started. For my plot I used 62 to reflect a 1 seat change in the WL.
If you are 50 and below I think your chances are still excellent. Pushing into the low 70's maybe difficult
nonlocality
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haha, I thought you were just saying something about the SRC. I get a sort of tunnel vision when I work out, so I have a tendency to not see what's going on around me. If anyone sees me at the SRC during or after a workout and I seem like I don't see you don't be offended please. AZtri, I walked past you on my way out of the SRC, right? Maybe I'm misremembering SDN usernames if I'm wrong.
I am certainly at ASU. I'll have to keep an eye out for you.
Whaaaaaaaaaa?
Shepardsun=
Shep is Ronnie Coleman? Yeah, buddy, light weight...ain't nuttin' but a peanut!
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Any ideas on why it is moving so slow this year in the beginning?
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Thought you guys might like to know, I have a friend who was accepted yesterday to Phoenix off the waitlist. So, there is some movement!
Hang in there, you guys. Oh, and ASU's pulling out of the partnership seems unlikely to affect much for the students. Everyone I have talked to seems to think it is a good thing, and we're having a town hall meeting about it on Monday, so we'll get more info then. The best thing about Phoenix is that they really bend over backwards to make things great for the students, and I seriously doubt that will change. Just to address any fears lingering out there. 🙂
Hang in there, you guys. Oh, and ASU's pulling out of the partnership seems unlikely to affect much for the students. Everyone I have talked to seems to think it is a good thing, and we're having a town hall meeting about it on Monday, so we'll get more info then. The best thing about Phoenix is that they really bend over backwards to make things great for the students, and I seriously doubt that will change. Just to address any fears lingering out there. 🙂
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Brooother, will Phx students still have access to the ASU resources? I assume your friend was IS? Likely attending Phx?
Thanks,
-MCH
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My main concerns are that I can still do research with the ASU people I've come to know really well at the amazing ASU facilities for my scholarly project. I hope that the pull-out won't affect that. Also, I assume that the pull-out means that there's overall less money to be had by the campus, unless U of A plans on picking up the slack. I wonder if/how this will affect financial aid and scholarships.
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Hey, Shep and Legit,
I think we share many of the same concerns. Many students are doing research with ASU, and I believe this is very unlikely to change. ASU will be just as affiliated with us as Banner, Phoenix Children's, etc, when it comes to research it seems, and students are doing research all over town at different places, so I think this (along with opportunities for future students) will remain unchanged. Also, many of our faculty come from ASU, but we have been told that they will keep their positions with us and with ASU. It really seems that the change will mean that UA will be completely responsible for us, especially financially, which most think will be good - no more being pulled between the two, and no more need to have complete agreement and collaboration between the two schools when it comes to making decisions for our campus. Really, I think it will make things easier and less confusing.
And Legit, I don't want to really speak for her because she is in that two-week window in which she needs to choose, and it sounds like she's going to revisit both before she picks, although yes, I believe she is leaning toward Phoenix. Truthfully, she may defer a year to finish her PhD that she is currently working on, so it may open up spots at both campuses for the class of 2014. And yes, she is IS.
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As to why the WL is moving so slowly medhopeful, here is my Grand Conspiracy Theory (GCT). Like all GCTs this is complicated so I hope I do not lose anyone.
I think the Adcoms are trying out a new strategy. They are anticipating the declines of their primary offers so they decided to have more outstanding offers than available seats. That is they have oversubscribed. They might have done this in prior years but perhaps they are more aggressive about it this year.
So instead of having 115 outstanding offers at the time of the WL creation, they had about 10% more outstanding offers than seats say 128.
With this strategy they will get more potential matriculants involved earlier, say during Jan/Feb, then they might have otherwise. This is an attempt to capture more desirable candidates earlier in the offer process.
Remember before the WL release the idea is to reach aggressively for very good candidates and then when the WL comes out to accept passively. When you reach aggressively the decline rate is much higher.
So with this theory the WL did not technically start off at 13. Thirteen was the number that they oversubscribed (e.g. 128-13 = 115 actual seats).
What they have been doing over the past 3 weeks is catching up. So they are only pulling off 1 person per week off of the WL until they get back to 115 actual outstanding offers.
So this GCT explains several unusual things about this year. First why we started the WL off with such a large number (13) and why they have expanded the number of waitlist seats all they way up to 123+
Thirteen because they really oversubscribed by 13 seats, so the 14th person on this years WL is really number 1. And 123 because they reached aggressively for 128 outstanding candidates and thus they have to cover a higher decline rate.
If this theory is correct than we can expect another 1-2 week of very slow movement before we go faster.
nonlocality
I think the Adcoms are trying out a new strategy. They are anticipating the declines of their primary offers so they decided to have more outstanding offers than available seats. That is they have oversubscribed. They might have done this in prior years but perhaps they are more aggressive about it this year.
So instead of having 115 outstanding offers at the time of the WL creation, they had about 10% more outstanding offers than seats say 128.
With this strategy they will get more potential matriculants involved earlier, say during Jan/Feb, then they might have otherwise. This is an attempt to capture more desirable candidates earlier in the offer process.
Remember before the WL release the idea is to reach aggressively for very good candidates and then when the WL comes out to accept passively. When you reach aggressively the decline rate is much higher.
So with this theory the WL did not technically start off at 13. Thirteen was the number that they oversubscribed (e.g. 128-13 = 115 actual seats).
What they have been doing over the past 3 weeks is catching up. So they are only pulling off 1 person per week off of the WL until they get back to 115 actual outstanding offers.
So this GCT explains several unusual things about this year. First why we started the WL off with such a large number (13) and why they have expanded the number of waitlist seats all they way up to 123+
Thirteen because they really oversubscribed by 13 seats, so the 14th person on this years WL is really number 1. And 123 because they reached aggressively for 128 outstanding candidates and thus they have to cover a higher decline rate.
If this theory is correct than we can expect another 1-2 week of very slow movement before we go faster.
nonlocality
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I agree with this theory, and its not an uncommon thing either. In fact, most schools over accept before ever making a waitlist. For example, when I interviewed at Pitt the students told me about last year or the year before where the school got too aggressive with their over accepting and they wound up with too many students matriculating but they couldn't do anything about it since they had accepted them. I don't think UA was THAT over-aggressive, but I'm sure they accepted more than 115 before the WL was ever generated because every school anticipates withdraws. This includes the top schools like Mayo who for a class of 42 MD-only students will accept ~50ish.
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I agree also with this theory, it definitely makes sense. I sure hope it picks up in a week or two here.
Also, everyone should try subtracting 13 from your current waitlist number for a really good feeling inside 😛 (Since nonlocality said 14 is really like #1)
Also, everyone should try subtracting 13 from your current waitlist number for a really good feeling inside 😛 (Since nonlocality said 14 is really like #1)
Here's the plan, assuming that the Phoenix campus doesn't accept me (because I have no way of knowing!)
May 1st- Have my roommate and living situation worked out for Tucson
May 15th- STARE AT THIS BOARD FROM MORNING UNTIL NIGHT
May 25th- My guess for my acceptance day! PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE!
June 1st- If I'm not in yet, start getting worried
June 10th- If I'm not in yet, REALLY worry
June 30th- If I'm not in yet, start looking for a job down in Tucson in research.
I don't think I could be more sick of waiting at this point. I feel like a pregnant lady who is past her due date-
I started excited, then scared, then just grew more and more anxious, and finally am getting annoyed and just want this waiting to be over.
May 1st- Have my roommate and living situation worked out for Tucson
May 15th- STARE AT THIS BOARD FROM MORNING UNTIL NIGHT
May 25th- My guess for my acceptance day! PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE!
June 1st- If I'm not in yet, start getting worried
June 10th- If I'm not in yet, REALLY worry
June 30th- If I'm not in yet, start looking for a job down in Tucson in research.
I don't think I could be more sick of waiting at this point. I feel like a pregnant lady who is past her due date-
I started excited, then scared, then just grew more and more anxious, and finally am getting annoyed and just want this waiting to be over.
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Are your ankles swollen or is it just that your belly is getting in the way? I hope you deliver soon 😉 It will happen 🙂
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Ha ha that really made me laugh!
Here is going to be my crazy schedule:
All of April: Work like crazy to get three 15 page papers completed
May 1st: Start getting excited (hopefully because of fast waitlist movement) and start studying for finals
May 15th: 9AM University-wide graduation ceremony
10:30AM - Check the web board
11AM College graduation ceremony
12:30PM - Check the web board
1PM - Lunch with Parents
2PM - Check the web board
2:30PM - Drive to Phoenix
4:30 - Check the web board
May 19th: Come back to Tucson and move to new house
May 25th: Erik gets in
May 28th: Hope I get in!!!!
At this point I don't want to think any farther past this point ha ha! I just hope it works out exactly like this!
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I was wonderin'...
Since May 15th is the magic day, do people have 2 weeks starting May 15th to pick one single school? Or do they have to pick one school by the 15th, or else lose all acceptances?
In other words: Will AU be filling slots like crazy on May 15th, the actual day.... or will be it the weeks following
Since May 15th is the magic day, do people have 2 weeks starting May 15th to pick one single school? Or do they have to pick one school by the 15th, or else lose all acceptances?
In other words: Will AU be filling slots like crazy on May 15th, the actual day.... or will be it the weeks following
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Like everyone else, I love the pregnant lady line, and the cool thing is that on June 1st my brother-in-law's wife starts here ob/gyn residency so if you aren't off the WL by then I'm sure she could always just induce you...- Joined
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The 15th is national. Its doesn't have anything to do with the 2 weeks UA gives us to decide between campuses. Nationwide, all applicants with multiple acceptances are supposed to have withdrawn from all but one school. That's why in the days leading up to, and especially on the 15th, you see A LOT of waitlist movement.
Oh I also wanted to add that the days after the 15th are also big for movement as people who withdrew on the 15th may not have their vacated spots filled by the school until the 16th or 17th. Then those people who got in to their dream school on the 16th or 17th will withdraw from that one acceptance they were holding onto at some other school, which will open another spot to be filled. This continues, albeit with less frequency, up until the first day of classes at most schools.
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tmm808, I think tuesday will be your day. Were you accepted to Phx too?
May 15th is right around the corner. Lets get some WL movement this week...
May 15th is right around the corner. Lets get some WL movement this week...
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Answered my question perfectly. Thank you so much.
I also never thought about people getting off the WL on the 15th and then vacating the one school they left open. So yeah should be an exciting few weeks.
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Come on Phx! Im just waiting on you now. Id really like to get in there, but if not, North Chicago it is. I feel like Im in limbo. Gah.
I am sure there are plenty of people that would gladly be in your shoes. Hopefully, it all works out for you. 👍
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Waaahooo! I always wanted be be number one...at something!
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If Butler wins the NCAA tourney, I'll take it as a sign that even if we don't move much before May, I'll still get in
"Attention: Tucson, I promise that when you accept me I will be an asset to the institution, and will represent the school in the most excellent manner.
With my deepest appreciation in advance for the seat you will offer me in June,
Rustin"
Let's go TUCSON! YEAH BABY! We're gonna see some movement this week, I can feel it! 👍
"Attention: Tucson, I promise that when you accept me I will be an asset to the institution, and will represent the school in the most excellent manner.
With my deepest appreciation in advance for the seat you will offer me in June,
Rustin"
Let's go TUCSON! YEAH BABY! We're gonna see some movement this week, I can feel it! 👍
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Oh come on Tucson! I got out of work and was hoping for some WL movement! I guess there are still a couple hours left.
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Maybe you'll see more movement after financial aid info come out. I think we're all still waiting on that!
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Do we have any idea when that is anticipated to happen? Will it come out for Phoenix and Tucson at the same time? Full rides on me if I get to go.
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The financial aid website says between April and May. I am hoping it will come out very soon. I'm tired of waiting.
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It's weird, I was looking at our two waitlists for Phoenix and Tucson. There is obviously a lot of cross over, but at the same time not. For example, both Erik and Rustin (people that are pretty close to me on the Tucson waitlist) made both the Phoenix and Tucson waitlists, but I only made the Tucson waitlist. I wonder what the differences are in what both campuses are looking for?
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Im sure Im the exception here, but I only applied to Phx. In retrospect, I just have to say DOH!
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In all honesty, it's mine and Erik's good lucks that landed us on both WL's. Without them, we would have rejected during the first cycle. Plus, neither of us are really supposed to mention this, but back in the 80's we were the two secret agents that forced the Schabowski slip and the fall of the Berlin wall. After Krenz and Gorbachev saw what Erik did to his guards, there wasn't much other persuasion necessary. Oh, and we actually tore down the wall with our bare hands in the ensuing days - not bulldozers. Of course, that's all classified so you've probably never heard about it. It's usually pretty hard to top that for EC's, but I have seen it.
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WOW! Everything is suddenly very clear now!!! I love the part about tearing it down with your bare hands ha ha!
Dude, come on! You know better than that! Jene, die wir schützen, können nicht wissen, dass sie geschützt sind.
Also, UACOM, if we don't start seeing some movement soon I can't be held responsible for what happens to one or more of your walls... Don't make me go Reagan on them.
Also, UACOM, if we don't start seeing some movement soon I can't be held responsible for what happens to one or more of your walls... Don't make me go Reagan on them.
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Today is the day for WL movement! Give us two spots like last week PLLLLLEEEAAASSSSE!
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After going through this process, I now understand a little better how arbitrary everything is in admissions. There are some quantified factors obviously, but the rest is almost as subjective as my choice of ice creams. Maybe someone on the Phoenix adcoms LOVES Germany, and saw that Erik speaks German and 'lived there for several years as a tourist in the 80's'. Maybe someone that reviewed my Phoenix file saw that I'm from Snowflake, and they really like to hear the 'hick' accent, or think it would be funny to admit someone from a town where kids have been known to drive a tractor to high school.
Really though, there are plenty of HIGHLY qualified applicants who get rejected from UA and other schools, while someone like me might squeak through on the WL and end up on the same playing field (too bad Butler lost - SO CLOSE! A couple of inches separated them and history - hope a couple of spots don't separate me and history). Between the two campuses it's about the same - nearly a third of Phx's 48 invites (15ish) don't receive an invite from Tucson, where there is a chance for 115 spots.
Hello, could I speak with Tucson please? Hi, how's it going? Hey, we ordered some WL movement today, remember? You deliver, right? Yeah, good . . . good . . . I'm glad to see you coming to your senses. Thanks, I know Erik will really appreciate that . . . Mmm . . . well, if he sees some movement today I think he'll refrain . . . yeah . . . well you're very welcome - I'll be sure to tell him you said that . . . Thanks Tucson . . . well it was good to talk to you too. See ya.
Really though, there are plenty of HIGHLY qualified applicants who get rejected from UA and other schools, while someone like me might squeak through on the WL and end up on the same playing field (too bad Butler lost - SO CLOSE! A couple of inches separated them and history - hope a couple of spots don't separate me and history). Between the two campuses it's about the same - nearly a third of Phx's 48 invites (15ish) don't receive an invite from Tucson, where there is a chance for 115 spots.
Hello, could I speak with Tucson please? Hi, how's it going? Hey, we ordered some WL movement today, remember? You deliver, right? Yeah, good . . . good . . . I'm glad to see you coming to your senses. Thanks, I know Erik will really appreciate that . . . Mmm . . . well, if he sees some movement today I think he'll refrain . . . yeah . . . well you're very welcome - I'll be sure to tell him you said that . . . Thanks Tucson . . . well it was good to talk to you too. See ya.
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I feel like one of the analysts on ESPN's Monday Night Football... to Tucson: C'MON MAN!!!! and stop being such a buzzkill!
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This isn't looking too promising...alright Erik you're up. Oh, and I can't wait till we reach page 41...shepardsun's picture is just too distracting.
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For what it's worth, I was accepted at Tucson and not even waitlisted at Phoenix. I actually thought my interview at Phoenix went better than my interview at Tucson.
I really wish that both campuses (and all Med schools, for that matter) were a little more transparent about the type of candidate they're after. It does make the process seem so arbitrary.
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Its not really that simple. Schools don't have a "type of candidate" per se. If they did have a particular type of candidate they looked for, then they would end up with a class full of the same kind of students. Not only would that be boring as hell, but it also wouldn't meet schools' desire to have a diverse group of students. Really though, how could you make a process like this more transparent? The only things that can be actually quantified are GPA and MCAT, and I don't think anyone wants those to be the only criteria for getting into medical school. I know this process sucks, but I think most schools do their best at making it go as smooth as possible, especially Tucson with a ranked wait list.
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Now you know how I feel every time I pass a mirror. I must spend hours lost in the damn things, flexing and posing, flexing and posing, flexing and posing............
Actually this is just a post pad so we can get to the next page because the picture creeps me out too.
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Perhaps "type of candidate" wasn't the best way of putting it. However, since (supposedly) many schools place a lot of emphasis on whether or not a candidate is "fit to mission", one school's committee does have specific qualities or life experiences in mind which might not exactly match another school's. For instance, it was brought up that Phoenix seems to have a certain preference for older candidates.
I get what you're saying. Schools want a diverse body of students, and specifically advertising for certain characteristics might skew their applicant pool at the cost of that diversity. However, reflecting on my own application experience, there really was no way to predict which schools would show me love and which schools wouldn't, especially when I only look at the quantifiable statistics such as GPA and MCAT.
Your logic also goes both ways. You're absolutely correct--schools don't only go by GPA and MCAT. Since schools don't just base their decision off of these two statistics, and since this is really the only information the applicants have with which to pick appropriate schools, how are we supposed to make informed decisions about where to apply? Given my experience with Phoenix and Tucson (rejected at the former, accepted at the latter), I get that I might just not have fit with Phoenix's mission. This is my point though--there isn't adequate information out there to determine exactly what that mission might be. Given the lack of that kind of information, the process does indeed seem arbitrary to a certain extent.
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I do agree that this process is a bit arbitrary (I also call it terrible), but I guess my point was that this is the nature of the beast. Schools do come out and give their mission, but it is typically vague and general, like "we seek to enroll a compassionate, diverse group of students who will provide excellent patient-care." I just don't know how much more specific they could be though. Schools want some people who are interested in research, some who are more community service oriented, others interested in primary care, maybe some that had a previous career like engineering, etc. There is no way of putting this into a mission, other than saying something like, "we seek to enroll a group of students who come from all different backgrounds, who have various goals within the field of medicine." Again, I would say this is general and vague.
Now when it comes down to why were you rejected from this school but not from that school, I think that is just a crap-shoot (like the rest of this process). Schools have to make snap judgments about us as applicants, and as much as it sucks one small thing could very well be the difference between an interview/acceptance and rejected. For example, how did I get invited for an interview on the first day at Mayo (arguably the most difficult med school to get accepted to) and yet Wake Forest (more of a mid-level school) did not bother to interview me at all? Its not as logical of a process as we all would like, and that's why we have to apply broadly to attempt to tip the probability of an acceptance in our favors.
As for Phoenix preferring "older" applicants, I don't know how much validity there is in this. What makes more sense to me is that older applicants typically have more experiences in life, which can help to set them apart from the rest of us who are trying to go to med school straight out of undergrad. That is just speculation though, so I won't try to pretend like I know what they look for in students.
Oh one more quick thought on this subject, even if a school was looking for particular experiences, this is not sufficient to predict one's chance of gaining admission to medical school. What I would consider more important than what you did in your experiences is what you got out of them. This is why your personal statement and EC descriptions are so important. Think about it, if you just say "volunteered at hospital X" and describe it as "stocking the rooms and running samples to the lab" the school doesn't learn anything about you. Instead if you talk about that one patient you helped and how it made you feel, the school now knows something about you and your motivations.
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Anyone who is in Tucson today and needs my help getting out call 480.612.3014. It's easy to become forlorn and hopeless when you are down there and feel like there is no way out. Some have described the effects as being similar to being surrounded by Dementors from Harry Potter. There is hope! Phoenix is only 90 minutes away. Don't ever give up!
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Feel like there is no way out, huh? Well I guess I could see that, because Tucson is basically surrounded by mountains all around. Although I'd consider that to be a good thing. I mean you can't tell me the Catalina mountains aren't gorgeous. Hey, at least in Phoenix you can see Camelback Mountain, right? Well...I guess that's only true on days where the pollution in Phoenix isn't blocking the view... 😛
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I heard that all the pollution in Phoenix is not industrial toxins but actually all the departed souls of the miserable people in Tucson who migrated up to Phoenix after they died so that their final resting spot could be somewhere a little nicer than Tucson. And by a little nicer I mean a LOT nicer.😀
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I can't bash on Phoenix too bad. After all, this is where I plan on living and practicing medicine later in life, but honestly Tucson and Phoenix aren't really THAT different anyways. I do like the mountain views in Tucson though.
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You know I love ya man. Hopefully you come up for some rotations and we'll bring our double act to the ward floors. Probably end up getting fail grades for those rotations because we'll annoy everyone with our comedic bickering, but should be fun nonetheless.
Next person to post is lucky number 2,000....
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