HoWWrses: Game Thread

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CoffeeQuestionMark said:
It sounds like blocking and protection have given notifications. @SkiOtter were you notified that SAR seered you and if so what was the message?
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I was notified. Not going to reveal the message at the moment because there’s still whoever got seered N3 that we don’t know who it was.
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Karabiner13 said:
interested in the shenanigans that happened to me N3 and if anyone else has had those results



I'm not that concerned about them dying. Based on her results, I could see dolphin. But dubz was a vanillager and results seem like flair. Not worth a night kill unless she was reading too village to the majority. Stagg was a post restrictor. Again, not a high priority role. Would more likely die from being too village

Surprised at your thought process considering how well you wolfed last game and caught whiffs of roles

I'm concerned with how fast the skim train got going before ski posted her sar info. Need to consider skim as a whole both ability use, posts, and votes. Add it to the things I want to do :laugh:
Click to expand...

Basics game was a lot easier for me. There are a lot of roles this game and most I haven't seen before.
 
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SnowshoeDog143 said:
Are we good with msu, mj, and dina?

Im still on the first day tie people were village so not feeling bryndi lynch. And jil has seemed fine this game like her normal self. And the way she was asking me about tl:hungover:r stuff in pm the other day seemed villagey.
Click to expand...

I'm ok with msu and mj. Having feels on dina

SnowshoeDog143 said:
No. Have most of the other abilities weve seen this game been notified?
Click to expand...

I've been notified of 3 actions on me so far this game

genny said:
But for Dubz, you had something about singing. You got nothing for Snowy?
Click to expand...

I have thoughts on this but will wait until skim answers
 
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Yeah, I was typing this as you tagged me.
vetmedhead said:
Tell me more about your wolf thoughts on Mel, weim, and genny

I'd also like to hear more of your village thoughts on covfefe, me, and ski. Also, what are your thoughts on covfefe post-affiliation reveal on thread?
Click to expand...
Covfefe has been (even pre-reveal) my heaviest village lean this entire game. Before she revealed she was pushing players and calling out play she perceived as wolfy. She is still heavy village imo but I didn't like her last minute unlynch of stagg two nights ago, with the justification of "idk". Her tone kinda changed for a little bit after her reveal in an idgaf way, and I took it as "I'm confirmed village so I can do what I want". As for you and ski, I think you have both had good analysis and push on players you find sketch. If skim flips wolf then ski will be pushed farther village, if not then she will go the other way.

Genny because of VCA and lack of much actual content. Mel's VCA also looks pretty bad, tunneled on kb for a a few days and then voted lupin last night instead of capri. There are a few things that he has said that don't really seem genuine. What went down with AM was odd, and I don't really understand why wz and mel would vouch to keep her alive knowing that she is going around shooting people (mel claims that she did not tell him this, but we don't have a way of knowing for sure). Weim has barely been around and I swear half the time she is around it's "where is bryndi?", which is odd since I think I have been much more present than she has and it seems like she is trying to throw shade my way. Her voting pattern also looks pretty poor, and when you iso her posts there is not much analysis going on, and she also was willing to go along with wz and mel suggesting everyone not lynch am, which is putting too much faith into the both of them when neither of them had any solid reasons to be trusted.

Lupin21 said:
how do you feel about mutts currently? And what about vmh puts her village for you?
Click to expand...
I have mutts as neutral/slight wolf lean, VCA doesn't look great but nothing that she has said has pushed her too far either way for me. See above for vmh
 
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My thought process is that it would be easy for skim to lie about who she used her ability on if they are already dead
 
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bryndiana.jones said:
Yeah, I was typing this as you tagged me.

Covfefe has been (even pre-reveal) my heaviest village lean this entire game. Before she revealed she was pushing players and calling out play she perceived as wolfy. She is still heavy village imo but I didn't like her last minute unlynch of stagg two nights ago, with the justification of "idk". Her tone kinda changed for a little bit after her reveal in an idgaf way, and I took it as "I'm confirmed village so I can do what I want". As for you and ski, I think you have both had good analysis and push on players you find sketch. If skim flips wolf then ski will be pushed farther village, if not then she will go the other way.

Genny because of VCA and lack of much actual content. Mel's VCA also looks pretty bad, tunneled on kb for a a few days and then voted lupin last night instead of capri. There are a few things that he has said that don't really seem genuine. What went down with AM was odd, and I don't really understand why wz and mel would vouch to keep her alive knowing that she is going around shooting people (mel claims that she did not tell him this, but we don't have a way of knowing for sure). Weim has barely been around and I swear half the time she is around it's "where is bryndi?", which is odd since I think I have been much more present than she has and it seems like she is trying to throw shade my way. Her voting pattern also looks pretty poor, and when you iso her posts there is not much analysis going on, and she also was willing to go along with wz and mel suggesting everyone not lynch am, which is putting too much faith into the both of them when neither of them had any solid reasons to be trusted.


I have mutts as neutral/slight wolf lean, VCA doesn't look great but nothing that she has said has pushed her too far either way for me. See above for vmh
Click to expand...
Why did you initially contingecy lynch meats?
 
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*****************************
Day 6 Lynch Tally

bryndi (5) - cubs, Lupin, Weim, Kara, meats
Skim (5) - Ski, Coffee?, Dina, Mel, bryndi
meats () -

10/18
lynch close in ~2.5 hours
*****************************
 
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CoffeeQuestionMark said:
Why did you initially contingecy lynch meats?
Click to expand...
I explained earlier but it seemed opportunistic if she knew capri was going to go down, but given her play for the rest of this game (save day 1) and her thought process that she posted, there wasn't as much sketch there as I initially thought there was.
 
genny said:
But for Dubz, you had something about singing. You got nothing for Snowy?
Click to expand...
Correct, but I assumed the singing was due to her role (ref to WZ/horse with no name).

CoffeeQuestionMark said:
It sounds like blocking and protection have given notifications. @SkiOtter were you notified that SAR seered you and if so what was the message?
Click to expand...
I was notified, but I actually thought I was tracked the way it was written, but when ski came out with SAR's info, I put the 2 together, though I admit, I'm just assuming, it's possible I was tracked that night and seered by SAR a different night.
genny said:
It would be nice if @Skimble answered that first.
Click to expand...
You are in luck! I already quoted coffee and was planning on answering it (see above).
 
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SkiOtter said:
Yeah but you didn’t have to die twice
Click to expand...
tenor.gif
 
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Skimble said:
I was notified, but I actually thought I was tracked the way it was written, but when ski came out with SAR's info, I put the 2 together, though I admit, I'm just assuming, it's possible I was tracked that night and seered by SAR a different night.
Click to expand...
Well what night did you get the notification? :p
 
Skimble said:
I was notified, but I actually thought I was tracked the way it was written, but when ski came out with SAR's info, I put the 2 together, though I admit, I'm just assuming, it's possible I was tracked that night and seered by SAR a different night.
Click to expand...
Also, didn’t you say sar told you she was ability seer?????
 
As skim said, it could have been referring to dubz role (old grey mare though not horse with no name). The difference between this and snowy could be due to mod differences if no template for consistency. It could also be due to dubz liking to submit no action night actions when she is a vanillager. Sometimes mods use these as flavor for night results if the person is acted upon
 
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SkiOtter said:
So like
You didn’t put two and two together then when you got the notification and then she told you she was ability seer??????
Click to expand...
No, SAR didn't tell me, YOU told us all on thread. That is when I put things together.
genny said:
WZ was Old Grey Mare. She ain't what she used to be.
Click to expand...
Oh whatever, I knew she was something song related. :laugh:
 
muttmanager said:
I listed my tinfoil that they were conspiring and look at that, they were just not as wolves. Mel is leaning more village after this whole ****show
Click to expand...
Lol, congrats, you picked up they were conspiring. They do that every game more or less.

Like I said I'm moving on from you for now - which I would define as the opposite of stuck - though yes you are still on my list - everyone is on my list minus coffee. Wide enough net
Click to expand...
Mm, I was calling you out on the tails of you voting me, so if you've moved on from that, that's the first I'm hearing of it. Good to know you're considering others. Although, everyone but Coffee? That might be a bit too wide. At some point you may need to consider who might be village.

"sure, there's the whole wolf in plain sight thing, and I would never point to my activity as a sign of being village because it's NAI. I would point to the fact that I think a lot of my advice is pro-village and if I were a wolf I just wouldn't have to try that hard. I think that"

Is the last sentence here finished?
Click to expand...

No, I went on to explain what I'm doing to help the village and a defense, so basically I did end up finishing it.

Questions-
What's fake tunneling?

What do you mean by town leaders?

Youre telling me to ask Lupin about you when you made multiple post about how you dont trust her? Has this changed?
Click to expand...

Tunneling is when it seems a player is overly fixated on one or only a few suspects. There is no perfect definition when you see this. Consensus though is that as long as there is reason to believe there is more than one wolf, especially originals, that more suspects must be considered for optimal hunting.

Fake tunneling is used by wolves as camouflage. This is because villagers tend to be prone to tunnelling. (Why? As uninformed majority it can be easy for a player to sort of anchor in their thinking, by not having much to go on or very little, any piece of data or the like can become inflated in a villager's mind, this gets into some classic cognitive biases). The other reason though, is because it allows the wolf to be lazy. They don't have to alienate more players than the tunnell-ee by voting them or making arguments against more players. They don't have to come up with more "analysis" and risk being caught up in lies or contradictions. They don't have to do more to consider how their VCA looks in isolation or compared to their wolfy buddies. Sometimes this means they are associated with less lynch deaths depending on who they are tunnelling and whether or not that player actually dies. This can make it easier to look like they are not just following the lynch mob. Lastly, and I believe there is info to back this up, there is a psychological thing that the more you post someone's name and the word the wolf, the more likely others are to read that and come to that association. So sometimes a fake tunnelling wolf is doing that just to get a mislynch.

Since genuine tunnelling on the part of a villager is so unhelpful, and can be used by wolves to be lazy, one way to wolf hunt is to encourage everyone to get out of their tunnels. It helps the villagers who are tunnelling, but it also pushes wolves for more data points and chances to put their foots in their mouths.

As far as what I said about Lupin, even if you suspect someone, doesn't mean you're correct. Also, if called upon sometimes wolves will be forced to confirm something factual or something they can't get away with a lie about. Obviously it doesn't help you if others don't believe them or they flip wolf.

As far as calling upon her to confirm that I was not trying to pocket her, here's a pro tip, writing a 9 point bulletin on why your PM partner is a wolf and voting them, is kinda the opposite of pocketing them, again why I was able to make the case that I was not pocketing her by PM.
I'm sure even that's been used to try to pocket someone through reverse psychology WIFOM. Point is, that wasn't terribly pockety on my part. Also, I was inviting her to engage in the thread.
I came to thread and said that after I accused her of being a wolf, she stopped talking to me. She hasn't contradicted that. I think my point stands that I haven't tried to pocket those players.

In regards to quieter players, I cannot make a read on them, as there is nothing to read. So do you want detailed reads or do you want me to be more suspicious of silence and lurkers who I have no reasons for?

How are you reading Bryndi & MJ?


My list
Lupin - feeling charmed and pocketed
Dina - just saw an amazing wolf play by her, could definitely be a wolf this game. But I also think her appearances/behavior is NAI

Kara - neutral - previously stated
Mel - village - stuck on Kara, seems more insightful as a wolf (no offense)
Stagg - previously stated village lean reevaluated neutral, since WZ's NK could lean more wolf here -
Capri - neutral - never really see much from her, definitely more substance this game which could be NAI
Snowy - village lean - making good points on thread, seems fine in PM too

Genny & Skimble - weary of both, neutral but likely leaning more wolf for both - need to ISO & reread their posts

I dont know anyone belows meta -
MSU - seems normal, i think in the past she has posted more non-game related things but may just have been based on rl things, neutral
Killer - usually village but always sketches me out - must be the name - leaving the resurrected alone for now
Cubs - noob - seems to be following others - possibly NAI, could be wolfy
Weim - not familiar with her play, here her lurking seems opportunistic and sketchy

The missing from your HW -
MJ - selective mute = NAI
Bryndi - around, still thinking about d1 tie but willing to see more from her, probably need to ISO
Ski - welcome back - actually enjoy her play, good wolf hunter and am glad shes back - leaving the resurrected alone for now

Gone but not forgotten
Dubz - village
SAR - village

Cray - please read my posts many questions in here have been answered and I just did the repetiveness with AM and she was non-village. I feel like my points on you were outlined clearly.

I'm not saying it is your activity, its how your tone reads and the content (minus the teaching I like that part and its NAI to me).

My village worldview crumbles with each death, so yes it will if you flip village too.

I love WW homework - so plese check my work and give non-biased feedback teac'

*Though, last time I got WW HW was in Space from wolfator Mel. So light sketch points to you jbs
Click to expand...

Here's the thing. How well do you know my tone to know that it is off? Sometimes I detect a wolfy tone in someone because what they are doing is classically wolfy, or some other signs of deception. Other times, it's because the tone is off for them. I just don't buy that you know my wolf meta at this point, or have interactive experience with wolfy me. If you don't know me, then you would find me extremely sketch. This probably explains what you are seeing that other more experienced players are not.

Most of your reads are very general. Unfortunately, superficial reads only tells you what is on the surface. And most wolves are able to not come off as such on the surface. I totally get gut reads, but endeavour to find much more specific things, like a particular post or voting pattern or some such, to make your case. Because even if you identify a wolf based on gut, unless a bunch of other villagers are reading you village AND ready to follow your gut reads, then the next part of successful villaging will be to persuade others to your viewpoint. Not that you have to forget a wolf read you believe in, but if you can't get any traction it helps to consider if you are 1) correct when so many others are not agreeing, if not that 2) other candidates.
 
Melchizedek said:
I was out to dinner and subsequent activities with the SO all night, and completely forgot to check in. Catching up now due to insomnia. Quoting and responding as I go.



IDK about you and Lupin, but until dubz and SAR soft cleared Kara for me, I was under the impression that you were purposely on every counterwagon to Kara at the beginning of the game. I think some people latched on to that?


:shrug: I get that, but at this point, I'm willing to trust Dubz and SAR's reads on you regardless of ability seer or not. Don't get me wrong, if you flip wolf I will be mad forever.


I lol'd


Bugger off. I really didn't want to believe AM wasn't village. I already feel stupid enough :yeahright:


You mean....
images

I don't care what anyone says, Waffle House is gorram dilishios


I lol'd again.


she ended up on my radar because of how she was pretending to participate, but wasn't following through on the stuff she was saying or thinking about the implications of what she was theorizing. I was MIA but honestly if I was around, I probably wouldn't have moved because I was okay with either a capri or lupin lynch today.


Translation: I need attention, and lots of it :p


ohhh this should be interesting......

Contingency Lynch Skim

(color change so Mods can find it in this wallpost)

She opened a PM with me yesterday and we exchanged pleasantries and talked about how busy she was. Time to do some grillin' :heckyeah:


Who? Me? :eek: I'm so flattered!
Click to expand...
Waffle house is the best worst thing ever
 
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Crayola227 said:
Lol, congrats, you picked up they were conspiring. They do that every game more or less.


Mm, I was calling you out on the tails of you voting me, so if you've moved on from that, that's the first I'm hearing of it. Good to know you're considering others. Although, everyone but Coffee? That might be a bit too wide. At some point you may need to consider who might be village.



No, I went on to explain what I'm doing to help the village and a defense, so basically I did end up finishing it.



Tunneling is when it seems a player is overly fixated on one or only a few suspects. There is no perfect definition when you see this. Consensus though is that as long as there is reason to believe there is more than one wolf, especially originals, that more suspects must be considered for optimal hunting.

Fake tunneling is used by wolves as camouflage. This is because villagers tend to be prone to tunnelling. (Why? As uninformed majority it can be easy for a player to sort of anchor in their thinking, by not having much to go on or very little, any piece of data or the like can become inflated in a villager's mind, this gets into some classic cognitive biases). The other reason though, is because it allows the wolf to be lazy. They don't have to alienate more players than the tunnell-ee by voting them or making arguments against more players. They don't have to come up with more "analysis" and risk being caught up in lies or contradictions. They don't have to do more to consider how their VCA looks in isolation or compared to their wolfy buddies. Sometimes this means they are associated with less lynch deaths depending on who they are tunnelling and whether or not that player actually dies. This can make it easier to look like they are not just following the lynch mob. Lastly, and I believe there is info to back this up, there is a psychological thing that the more you post someone's name and the word the wolf, the more likely others are to read that and come to that association. So sometimes a fake tunnelling wolf is doing that just to get a mislynch.

Since genuine tunnelling on the part of a villager is so unhelpful, and can be used by wolves to be lazy, one way to wolf hunt is to encourage everyone to get out of their tunnels. It helps the villagers who are tunnelling, but it also pushes wolves for more data points and chances to put their foots in their mouths.

As far as what I said about Lupin, even if you suspect someone, doesn't mean you're correct. Also, if called upon sometimes wolves will be forced to confirm something factual or something they can't get away with a lie about. Obviously it doesn't help you if others don't believe them or they flip wolf.

As far as calling upon her to confirm that I was not trying to pocket her, here's a pro tip, writing a 9 point bulletin on why your PM partner is a wolf and voting them, is kinda the opposite of pocketing them, again why I was able to make the case that I was not pocketing her by PM.
I'm sure even that's been used to try to pocket someone through reverse psychology WIFOM. Point is, that wasn't terribly pockety on my part. Also, I was inviting her to engage in the thread.
I came to thread and said that after I accused her of being a wolf, she stopped talking to me. She hasn't contradicted that. I think my point stands that I haven't tried to pocket those players.



Here's the thing. How well do you know my tone to know that it is off? Sometimes I detect a wolfy tone in someone because what they are doing is classically wolfy, or some other signs of deception. Other times, it's because the tone is off for them. I just don't buy that you know my wolf meta at this point, or have interactive experience with wolfy me. If you don't know me, then you would find me extremely sketch. This probably explains what you are seeing that other more experienced players are not.

Most of your reads are very general. Unfortunately, superficial reads only tells you what is on the surface. And most wolves are able to not come off as such on the surface. I totally get gut reads, but endeavour to find much more specific things, like a particular post or voting pattern or some such, to make your case. Because even if you identify a wolf based on gut, unless a bunch of other villagers are reading you village AND ready to follow your gut reads, then the next part of successful villaging will be to persuade others to your viewpoint. Not that you have to forget a wolf read you believe in, but if you can't get any traction it helps to consider if you are 1) correct when so many others are not agreeing, if not that 2) other candidates.
Click to expand...
What have you done to those quotes from others :laugh:
 
@muttmanager town leader is a term used loosely to refer to those who are on thread being vocal, directing conversation/lynches, that are either perceived as town or despite that are directing the town.

Understandably, while it is essential to do something about the lurkers, you also want to consider your emerging town leaders.
 
I'm not convinced skim is a wolf. Her posts and votes have had me leaning her village

Bryndy however, gets this side eye from me for yesterday (haven't fully iso'd her yet, started with yesterday's lynch)

bryndiana.jones said:
Could go stagg or genny at this point. The former because of previous reasons and because I am not convinced that a post restrictor is village, and the later for VCA and post quality.
Click to expand...

Stagg737 said:
If I were a wolf why would I make restrictions that allowed my targets to communicate freely? I'd try and capitalize/cause more chaos than that.
Click to expand...

bryndiana.jones said:
This makes sense though

lynch genny
Click to expand...

goes off on a lone vote avoiding the major wagons despite stagg (and koffee) only making her feel better about the ability portion. What happened to the former reasons? The timing of that lone vote also feels off considering it was an hour until lynch close and she had been on earlier

only mention of capri before today (that I can find as long as search was being truthful) was when I questioned her on her reasoning for her D1 vote regarding why not consider capri in the math discussion
 
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vetmedhead said:
Can someone help me keep track of the huge presence and the small and formidable presence?

"A huge/giant presence"
N1 - Ski
N2 - Dina
N3 - ???
N4 - Stagg (also reported his action not going through that day)
N5 - ???

"A small and formidable presence"
N1 - ???
N2 - ???
N3 - mutts
N4 - capri (according to Capri)
N5 - ???

I am mainly intrigued because if I had to guess one is a blocker and the other might be a jailer of some sort, but I was curious if the patterning of chosen targets was at all informative
Click to expand...

Short and formidable came back to me last night
Stagg’s action didn’t go through bc he targeted SAR who died that night.

###lynch Skim###
Im not believeing this story - all her targets died? Whatever you are isnt helping village
 
muttmanager said:
Short and formidable came back to me last night
Stagg’s action didn’t go through bc he targeted SAR who died that night.

###lynch Skim###
Im not believeing this story - all her targets died? Whatever you are isnt helping village
Click to expand...
Two of my targets are still alive. Apparently they don't get notified of my actions.
 
muttmanager said:
Short and formidable came back to me last night
Stagg’s action didn’t go through bc he targeted SAR who died that night.

###lynch Skim###
Im not believeing this story - all her targets died? Whatever you are isnt helping village
Click to expand...

stagg also mentioned having a huge presence stand over him which may explain why his action didn't go through (as well as sar dying)

Not all her targets have died

this reads sketch and like you are jumping on an easy lynch

You went from weim on D4 to lupin on D5. What do you think of them both now?

what are your thoughts on bryndy?
 
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